Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Beware of Kevin Kooiker in a Striped Shirt

I usually try to ignore the officials. Not necessarily during the game, I like to get on their case as much as the next guy, but I try not to think about them during my post game thoughts and discussions. They make bad calls, but it's usually not too one sided, and I (usually) let go of my grievances fairly quickly.

But I couldn't shake a sneaking suspicion that the Knights were bound for trouble in their latest game with Aquinas when I saw the name Kevin Kooiker listed as an official on the side of my Live Stats screen. I felt like they lose a lot of games when he refs. So I decided to check.

I went through the last five years (actually four years plus this partial year) of games that occurred in MIAA territory to see who the officials were, and whether or not Calvin won the game. I came up with 98 games, of which the Knights won 68 and lost 30 for a 0.694 winning percentage.

Here's a chart of the top ten officials in terms of number of appearances:

Official Win   Loss  PCTGP
Todd Geerlings1540.78919
Kevin Kooiker7110.38918
Ray Kelser1170.61118
Kendall Smith1020.83312
Phillip Miller930.75012
Mike Brya650.54511
Jeff Spedoske920.81811
John Creek740.63611
Larry Martin640.60010
Dave Joppie730.70010

Which one of these is not like the other? Only one is below 0.500, and he's well below that mark.

The average winning percentage of this group is 0.659. That's considerably lower than our total average of 0.694, but if we remove Kooiker from the equation, the group average jumps up to 0.702 (and the whole total jumps to 0.714). Pretty close. I think we have an outlier.

But before we pile on Mr. Kooiker too much, we should consider the opponents. Maybe he happens to be drawing more of Calvin's tougher games, and maybe we shouldn't expect a 0.694 winning percentage in those games.

Here are Calvin's opponents in games officiated by Kooiker in this period: Adrian (twice), Aquinas (three times), Cornerstone, Grace, Hope (three times), Kalamazoo, Lake Forest, Olivet (three times), and Trine (three times).

If we take Calvin's overall winning percentage against these opponents (over our sample time period), and weigh them individually according to the number of "Kooiker games", we come up with a 0.661 total win expectancy (an expected 11.9-6.1 record). The Knights are massively underperforming when Kevin Kooiker is wearing the stripes.

They're 0-3 against Hope (versus 5-6 in "non-Kooiker games"), they're 0-3 versus Aquinas (compared to 3-3 in "non-Kooiker games"), and they're 1-2 against Olivet (compared to 8-1).

I'm not trying to suggest there's any malfeasance afoot; I'm sure he's a good dude. The total sample of "Kooiker games" is only 18 games, and while that's nearly three-quarters of a season, there's probably some random variation occurring. I hope. I just found this to be kind of odd.

No comments:

Post a Comment