Monday, November 22, 2010

Big Chart, Regional Rankings, and Plus/Minus Excuses

I hope it doesn't seem like I'm hashing and rehashing these statistics over and over, but I enjoy them. This is what I think about.

Here's where the Knights are statistically through the first three games of the season.

Big Chart

Player%Min%ShotseFG%PPWSFTrArTO%ORb%DRb%Blk%
Rodts0.7400.2520.5301.070.2120.1580.1210.0780.1090.01
Powell0.6490.2180.6201.240.0000.2830.2420.0000.1020.01
Brink0.6320.0980.5001.130.2730.0880.3260.0150.0810.00
Snikkers0.6240.3260.5971.240.3060.3340.1790.0310.1300.00
Schuster0.5490.2260.5001.010.3640.1150.1040.1400.1740.09
Haverdink0.5160.1420.5381.230.5380.1980.1090.0370.0860.00
Schnyders0.3910.2170.2000.911.1330.0710.1480.0980.1130.02
DeYoung0.3740.0300.5001.133.5000.0690.2730.0510.2360.00
DeBoer0.2830.1800.3330.770.3330.2040.3650.0340.0780.00
Vallie0.1250.2720.4170.860.3330.0000.3020.0770.0000.05
Kruis0.0920.2470.6251.250.0000.1880.0000.1050.3210.22
Fabiyi0.0250.2261.0002.000.0000.0000.0000.0000.2950.00

It's incredibly early in the season, so these numbers are subject to wild game-to-game movement. They could look completely different next week.

The chart is sorted by %Min, so a quick glance down that first column gives us coach Vande Streek's rotation. I think we'll start seeing more and more of Tyler Kruis; that kid impressed me on Saturday.

One of the bigger surprises in the %Shots column, at least to me, is how low Bryan Powell's total is. Not that it's LOW, but that it's not high at all. If everyone shot the ball an equal number of times, everyone would be at .200. Bryan's only 1.8% above that, so it's hardly worth noting. I think the knock on Bryan's game last year was that he needed WAY too many shots to get his point totals up. That hasn't been the case at all in the early going.

The individual field goal percentages are excellent. The top six players in minutes are all effectively shooting .500 or better. We'll see it below in the team chart, but the Knights are shooting .514 as a team. That's 14 points better than last year's team shot on the year.

The points per weighted shot (PPWS) numbers all look pretty strong too. I haven't studied this statistic very scientifically, but my general rule for Calvin players is as follows: Above 1.2 is outstanding, between 1.1 and 1.2 is very good, 1.0 to 1.1 is average, 0.9 to 1.0 is a bit below average, and below 0.9 gets you a seat on the bench.

Finally, I want to point out how insanely-good Brad Schnyders is at getting to the free throw line. He's taking 21% of the team's shots while he's in the game, and yet he's still managing a free throw rate above one. If he can start finishing at the basket on some of these attempts (and he will), we'll see his PPWS numbers skyrocket.

Team Chart

 Offense   Defense 
eFG%0.5140.415
Rb%0.3270.669
TOr0.2150.179
FTr0.3670.320
Ar0.6500.538
Blk%0.0470.095
Eff102.494.8

The eFG percentages on both sides of the ball are outstanding, especially on defense. Keep up the good work there. The Knights' defensive efficiency rating is equally outstanding.

Rebounding has been OK. I was pretty concerned heading into the year, but they've gotten the job done on the glass for the most part. I would like to see the defensive percentage come up a few percentage points though.

A 65% assist rate excites me. I don't think I've seen a Calvin team drop this many dimes, but I'm really a young 'un when it comes to Calvin hoops.

It's cool to see that Calvin's defense blocks twice the number of shots that their opponents do.

Regional Rankings
I just finished my spreadsheet, so I'll have regional ranking projections and tournament field projections soon. I'll probably clear a spot in the link bar at the top of the page to permanently house the rankings for quick access. I'm a huge geek when it comes to regional winning percentage and strength of schedule and all that jazz. I just wanted to let you know it's coming. Maybe next week. Is that too soon? Probably, but I might do it anyway.

Plus/Minus Excuses
I tried to compile +/- numbers from the weekend's games, but the play by play data on the box scores were terribly incomplete and/or incorrect. I'm in the process of trying to reconstruct it, but it might be a lost cause. Maybe we'll get part of the game(s), and maybe we'll get none, but it will take me some time to finish it. I even tried listening to the online audio archive, but as you already know, the amount of actual detail on the radio broadcast is sometimes... lacking. We'll see.

1 comment:

  1. One point about Schnyders' propensity to get to the line (full disclosure: I'm a graduated Hope student so only caught a few Calvin games last year and none this year). It always seemed to me that getting to the hoop was a singular goal of his, often times bull-headed, occasionally out of control. He DID get to the line a ton, and shoot quite well, but unless he's improved his body control and general tact I doubt he's giving himself much chance to convert at the rim. Although you really can't complain about the 15/17 at the stripe.

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