Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Kalamazoo Snow-Special Preview

GameTwenty
WhoKalamazoo Hornets
WhereKalamazoo, MI
WhenThursday -- 7:30 PM
Web Videonone
Web AudioAudio
LiveStatsStats
DirectionsGoogle Maps

When We Last Met
It was the worst game ever.

Kalamazoo's Ryan Clark exploded for 32 points, the Hornets (effectively) shot 51% from the floor, Calvin shot (effectively) 35% for the game, and the Hornets picked up their first win on Calvin's home floor since 1996.

I don't want to dismiss the Hornets; they've picked up their level of play in the conference season and they now look like a dangerous team, but it was still a perfect storm of events that lead to their win over the Knights. It was almost certainly Calvin's worst game of the season, and yet they were right in the ballgame until the final minute.

Matchup

MatchupCalvinKzooAdvantage
Calvin eFG% vs. Kzoo DeFG%0.5170.483-
Calvin DeFG% vs. Kzoo eFG%0.4790.506-
Calvin TOr vs. Kzoo DTOr0.210.20-
Calvin DTOr vs. Kzoo TOr0.200.20-
Calvin ORb% vs. Kzoo DRb%0.3680.695Calvin
Calvin DRb% vs. Kzoo ORb%0.6980.230Calvin
Calvin FTr vs. Kzoo DFTr0.330.42Calvin
Calvin DFTr vs. Kzoo FTr0.310.36Calvin
Calvin OEff vs. Kzoo DEff107.5100.6Calvin
Calvin DEff vs. Kzoo OEff101.898.2-

As long as Calvin shoots above 35%, they should maintain a pretty hefty statistical advantage in this one.

I don't have much respect for the scoring ability of any of the Hornets beyond Joe Prepolec and Ryan Clark. Maybe throw Eric Fishman in there as well, but they have a huge dropoff in scoring after him.

I've been really liking Calvin's interior defense, so Prepolec doesn't really scare me all that much, but we all saw what Ryan Clark can do with an open three pointer earlier in the year. Gotta be aware of where Clark is, and don't give him the good looks.

I think the Knights will be just fine in this one.

Sure-to-be-wrong Prediction
Calvin by 7

Need to win level: High
Expected to win level: High
Massey Prediction: Calvin 76, Kalamazoo 73 (60% chance of victory).

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