Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Stats-and-More Versus Alma

Win Probability


Alma took a 9-3 lead about four minutes into the game, but it was a steady climb from there on to the win. Despite the student webcast announcers calling the game a ‘nail biter’, nothing really exciting happened in the final twelve or thirteen minutes.




Game Chart

Player%Min%ShotseFG%PPWSFTrArTOrRb%eff
Snikkers0.700.440.4520.940.570.190.000.18-
Kruis0.600.150.1670.861.170.190.220.14-
Mast0.550.110.7501.210.500.080.000.06-
Rietema0.330.050.0000.000.000.220.250.11-
DeBoer0.700.150.1430.290.000.050.090.08-
Powell0.780.340.5561.180.280.000.050.05-
Haverdink0.630.120.5001.481.600.060.070.11-
Dykstra0.350.170.5001.120.250.130.000.03-
Stout0.180.170.0000.681.000.000.000.13-
Van Eck0.200.000.0000.000.000.001.000.23-
Calvin1.001.000.4260.990.540.390.110.56106.8
Alma1.001.000.4601.030.380.480.170.4494.6

Calvin finally scored an offensive efficiency rating on the good side of 100 (it hadn’t happened since the Trinity game), but Alma’s defense has tended to rate below average by about the same amount, so what we’re left with was probably Calvin playing on offense like an average team (if that makes sense). So we’re not sad panda, but we’re not jumping for joy and tossing our spreadsheet printouts in the air claiming we found quality offensive production either. Somewhere right in the middle of those (but perhaps still a bit closer to sad panda).

The (effective) field goal percentage was the best it’s been in conference play, but at only .426 it still wasn’t very good. A very good free throw rate and solid rebounding margin saved the day offensively. If you can’t make regular field goals, you need to get to the free throw line to try the unguarded ones. Unfortunately, Calvin hasn’t been all that good at getting to the line. It was good that they did here; I’d love to see it continue.

Jordan Mast NEEDZ MOAR SHOTS.

Tyler Dykstra had his second quietly effective game in a row (at least in the stat sheets). He could stand to get more involved on the boards, but I’m liking the (efficient) six-ish points per game that he’s chipped in recently. And as we’ll see in a bit, he scored well in the individual efficiency numbers for the third straight game.

Whatever Bryan Powell’s been doing needs to continue. I still have about four heart attacks every time he lets a shot fly, but goodness if he hasn’t been knocking them down.

From my perspective, Tom Snikkers’ game flow recently has been miss shots early, then force the issue (and miss some more), and then relax and let it come (and score buckets). I think he plays better as a part of the offense, and not when he’s playing to be the offense.

Player Efficiency Chart

PlayerMINPFPA+/-O-PosD-PosOEffDEffMargin
Powell30.1686176060113.3101.711.7
DeBoer28.855505596093.283.39.9
Snikkers28.4615835557110.9101.89.2
Kruis24.35038124645108.784.424.3
Haverdink24.3535034546117.8108.79.1
Mast22.1484534543106.7104.72.0
Dykstra13.9302822931103.490.313.1
Rietema13.227207293093.166.726.4
Van Eck7.91721-4192089.5105.0-15.5
Stout7.0161421313123.1107.715.4
DeVries0.0000000.00.00.0
DeYoung0.0000000.00.00.0
Henry0.0000000.00.00.0
Huizenga0.0000000.00.00.0
Nadeau0.0000000.00.00.0
TOTAL40.0857788081106.395.111.2

David Rietema battled foul trouble all afternoon (and eventually fouled out after only 13 minutes), so Bryan Powell had to play a lot more minutes than maybe he’s used to, but he performed well both on the stat sheet and in the efficiency numbers.

Tyler Kruis didn’t have the point total impact that I figured he would, but while he was in the game, the team performed exceptionally well on defense. Calvin’s length clearly bothered the Alma offense, and I think it’s fair to say that Kruis was a big part of that.

I had heard that Matt DeBoer was suffering from the flu a couple of weeks ago. I don’t know if he’s still feeling the effects of that or not, but he hasn’t performed all that well offensively in a few games, and there’s a big difference showing up for him in these efficiency numbers as well. His jump hook was deadly in the early part of the year, but it’s seemed to come up short in recent games.

Nice seven minute debut for Daniel Stout.

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