Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Women's Regional Rankings 1/3/2012

These regional rankings are not official. All data comes via d3hoops.com.

The attempt of these rankings is to get an early estimate of what the NCAA’s official rankings will be when they’re released later on in the year (the first official set come out in early February). These rankings are 100% computer based – I don’t adjust them at all.

The base of the ranking system is two of the primary criteria: in-region winning percentage and strength of schedule. For now, I’m combining these two in a strict 50-50 sense. For the men, I apply a few adjustments to attempt to adjust for games versus regionally ranked opponents and whatnot, but I don’t yet have a feel for how the women’s committee compares the various criteria so I’ve decided to just use the basics for now and build up later.

So for now these rankings are literally 0.5 x WP + 0.5 x SOS. This doesn’t include head-to-head play or results versus common opponents, so feel free to adjust the rankings in your head if you see a spot where that may be an issue.

All of my data comes from d3hoops.com. Occasionally games are incorrectly listed as in-region (or not listed as in-region) or scores are reported late. If you notice something is wrong (numbers-wise) with my data set, it’s probably because there is some data missing on d3hoops.

Through (most) games of 1/2/2012
NE1WilliamsNESCAC1.0000.7080.8541AC 9-010-00-011-0
NE4New England CollegeCCC1.0000.4730.73722C810-010-00-010-0
NE6Keene StateLEC0.8750.5800.72724AwC7-17-20-07-2
NE7Fitchburg StateMASCAC1.0000.4190.71033C1510-010-00-010-0
NE8University of New EnglandCCC0.7500.6370.69441AwC6-26-20-06-2
NE10Connecticut CollegeNESCAC0.8890.4710.68052C268-18-10-09-1
EA2IthacaE80.8750.6580.76610AC 7-17-20-08-2
EA3Buffalo StateSUNYAC0.8750.5280.70136AwC7-19-10-09-1
EA5Oneonta StateSUNYAC0.7500.6000.67556C296-26-40-06-4
EA7William SmithLL0.5710.7270.64971C404-34-50-04-5
EA8New York UniversityUAA0.7500.5250.63881C486-26-20-07-2
AT1William PatersonNJAC1.0000.6170.8093AC 11-012-00-012-0
AT3Mary WashingtonCAC1.0000.4480.72426AwC8-010-00-010-0
AT4Mount St. MarySKY0.8000.6240.71230AwC8-29-20-09-2
AT5Richard StocktonNJAC0.8330.5900.71231C135-18-10-08-1
AT6York (Pa.)CAC0.8180.5490.68450C259-29-20-09-2
AT7Trinity (D.C.)IND1.0000.3050.65368B12-02-00-04-1
MA1MuhlenbergCC1.0000.5080.75413AC 9-09-00-09-0
MA3Johns HopkinsCC0.8750.5450.71032C147-17-10-07-1
MA5Lebanon ValleyMACC0.8180.5470.68251AwC9-210-20-010-2
MA6Franklin and MarshallCC0.7780.5660.67262C337-28-20-08-2
MA9MarywoodCSAC0.7500.4840.61795A 6-27-20-08-2
SO1McMurryASC1.0000.5740.7877AC 6-06-00-08-1
SO2PiedmontGSAC1.0000.5120.75612AC 6-010-00-010-0
SO3GreensboroUSAC0.8330.6470.74020AC 5-15-10-05-1
SO4Louisiana CollegeASC0.8890.5150.70235C178-18-10-08-2
SO5Concordia (Texas)ASC0.8750.5190.69739C197-17-10-08-1
SO7Virginia WesleyanODAC0.8570.5180.68745AwC6-17-20-07-2
SO8Eastern MennoniteODAC0.8570.5150.68646C226-17-10-07-1
GL1FranklinHCAC1.0000.5230.76211AC 10-010-00-011-0
GL2DePauwNCAC0.8890.6180.75314AC 8-19-10-09-1
GL3CalvinMIAA1.0000.5050.75315AC 6-08-00-011-0
GL4Mount UnionOAC0.8890.5950.74219AC 8-110-10-010-1
GL6Ohio NorthernOAC0.8330.5640.69937C1810-210-20-010-2
GL7St. VincentPrAC0.9000.4770.68943AwC9-19-20-09-2
GL9Thomas MorePrAC0.8750.4770.67655C287-17-30-08-3
CE1Washington U.UAA1.0000.5760.7885C29-010-10-010-1
CE2UW-Stevens PointWIAC1.0000.5720.7868AC 10-011-00-011-1
CE3ChicagoUAA1.0000.5580.7799AC 9-09-00-09-0
CE4UW-River FallsWIAC0.9090.5650.73721C710-111-10-011-1
CE6UW-Eau ClaireWIAC0.9170.5150.71629C1211-111-10-011-2
CE7Westminster (Mo.)SLIAC0.8000.5800.69042C204-15-10-07-2
CE8UW-La CrosseWIAC0.8000.5460.67360C328-28-30-09-3
CE9Wisconsin LutheranNATHC0.7140.5780.64675Abub5-26-20-07-3
WE1George FoxNWC1.0000.6440.8222AC 6-08-00-011-0
WE2Lewis and ClarkNWC1.0000.4860.74318C64-06-00-011-0
WE3St. ThomasMIAC0.8890.5640.72625C108-18-10-08-1
WE4Gustavus AdolphusMIAC0.7780.6170.69738AwC7-27-20-07-2
WE6St. OlafMIAC0.7780.5590.66863C347-27-20-07-2
WE7Cal LutheranSCIAC0.8000.5020.65170AwC4-15-20-06-4

Here’s how to read the chart, starting with the far left:

Obviously the first column is simply the region designation. The second column is the rank in the region. I like to rank three more teams than the NCAA does (I think they’ve done 10 in the NE and six everywhere else in the past, correct me if I’m wrong there). From there we get to see the teams and the conference followed by the beginning of the numbers.

The ‘WP’ column is the team’s in-region winning percentage, and ‘SOS’ is their in-region strength of schedule. From there I calculate what I call ‘RPI50’. This is .5 x WP + .5 x SOS. I am ranking teams according to this number. It’s simple, and obviously incomplete, but it will probably get us 70% of the way to the ‘real’ rankings.

Next are just a few items of interest. The ‘Nat.’ column shows each ranked team’s national ranking (of RPI50). The ‘Pool’ column projects which NCAA selection pool each team would be eligible for. The team in each AQ conference with the best RPI among all of their D3 games (number not shown) gets designated with Pool A. I don’t use the actual standings because these bids are (nine and a half times out of ten) handed out after a conference tournament. I designate one team for Pool B by simply taking the highest ranked team of the eligible group (independent teams). The rest of the teams are designated as being eligible for ‘Pool C’.

The ‘Status’ column is an indication of where each team stands within their projected pool. Pool B and C teams show a number that corresponds to their ranked position within the pool. One Pool B team will make the tournament, and 20 Pool C teams will make the tournament. Pool A teams are designated with symbols. A ‘C’ indicates that the team is currently one of the top 20 teams in the nation (according to RPI50), this would mean that a loss in a conference tourney would likely result in a very safe Pool C berth. A ‘wC’ means that the team is currently ranked inside of the range set by the top 20 Pool C teams. If a ‘Pool A, wC’ team lost in a conference tournament, they would have a very good chance of receiving a Pool C berth. A ‘bub’ designation indicates that the Pool A team would be on the bubble if they were lumped in with the Pool C crowd. I’m calling the bubble as the range defined by the “next ten” teams (Pool C teams ranked from 21 to 30).

Following the ‘Status’ column are four sets of team records: regional record, record versus D3 teams, record versus regionally ranked teams, and overall record.

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