Sunday, February 26, 2012

Final Bracketology

About My Bracketology System
The basis for my picks is the regional ranking projections that I do every week. Usually there are one or two regions that are really hard for me to fit (that is to say, match the committee’s ranking) using my data. The difficulty for me probably comes down assessing common opponents. I don’t adjust the regional rankings to reflect head-to-head and common opponent games (I haven’t found a good way to automate that, and it’s too much work to look through by hand each week), but I’ll try to do some of those adjustments (while still spending a minimal amount of time) for the bracketology updates. I’m guessing that we’ll see a sharp change in both the regional rankings and the bracketology once the NCAA starts ranking the regions (and I can add in results versus regionally ranked opponents).

The main goal of this post isn’t so much to determine exactly who’s in and who’s out, but to give a good general idea of who’s in and who’s on the bubble. It’s also worth noting that the last two years (the only years in which I’ve done bracketology like this) I’ve had the exact same accuracy rates as the “(un)official” projection put out by Pat Coleman (I think we both hit 16 of 19 Pool C teams two years ago and 16 of 18 last year).

I’ll list the Pool A teams (autobids) first. I’ll award the bid to the team with the best conference record. In the case of a tie, I’ll award it to the team with the best RPI in Division III games.

Pool B gets one bid. These are the teams that don’t have a Pool A bid to compete for (independents and teams from non-AQ conferences). I’ll also list the “next two” possible picks. A few Pool B teams will run into an interesting situation whereby we won’t be 100% certain if they’re eligible for tournament selection. The championship manual stipulates that team must play a minimum of 50% of their games against in-region Div. III competition to be eligible, but there is a waiver that schools can submit to bypass this rule. I’ll mark schools who may fall into this category with an asterisk (*).

Pool C is where the real fun lies. We get 19 bids this year. I’ll list my top 15 in alphabetical order, and then list the “last four in” as well as the “last four out” and “next four out”. This should represent the bubble pretty well.

Through games of 2/26/2012

Pool A

AMCC -- Medaille
ASC -- McMurry
CAC -- York (Pa.)
CC -- Franklin and Marshall
CCC -- Salve Regina
CCIW -- North Central (Ill.)
CSAC -- Cabrini
CUNYAC -- Staten Island
E8 -- Ithaca
GNAC -- Albertus Magnus
HCAC -- Rose-Hulman
IIAC -- Buena Vista
LAND -- Scranton
LEC -- Eastern Connecticut
LL -- Skidmore
MACC -- Messiah
MACF -- Misericordia
MASCAC -- Salem State
MIAA -- Hope
MIAC -- St. Thomas
MWC -- Carroll
NAC -- Castleton State
NATHC -- Edgewood
NCAC -- Wooster
NEAC -- Morrisville State
NECC -- Becker
NESCAC -- Amherst
NJAC -- William Paterson
NWC -- Whitworth
OAC -- Capital
ODAC -- Virginia Wesleyan
PrAC -- Bethany
SCAC -- Trinity (Texas)
SCIAC -- Claremont-Mudd-Scripps
SKY -- Farmingdale State
SLIAC -- Westminster (Mo.)
SUNYAC -- Oswego State
UAA -- Washington U.
UMAC -- Northwestern (Minn.)
USAC -- Christopher Newport
WIAC -- UW-River Falls

Pool B

Maryville (Tenn.)

First Out
St. Joseph's (Bklyn.)

Next Out
UC Santa Cruz*

Pool C

Lake Forest
Mary Hardin-Baylor
Rhode Island College
St. Joseph's (L.I.)
UW-Stevens Point
Western Connecticut
Wheaton (Ill.)

Last Four In
Keene State
Ohio Wesleyan
St. Marys (Md.)

First Four Out
New Jersey City

Next Four Out
Gustavus Adolphus
New York University

Bids By Conference
LEC -- 4
NCAC -- 3
WIAC -- 3
ASC -- 2
CAC -- 2
CCIW -- 2
E8 -- 2
HCAC -- 2
LL -- 2
MWC -- 2
ODAC -- 2
SKY -- 2

Bids By Region
NE -- 14
MW -- 9
WE -- 9
EA -- 7
MA -- 7
GL -- 6
SO -- 6
AT -- 4

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