Tuesday, March 3, 2015

A Statistical Look at the Mount Union Pod

Here's a quick, tempo-free look at the four teams in the Mount Union pod (Mount Union, Calvin, Oswego State, Neumann). I've been tracking team efficiency numbers all year. Attempts were made to adjust offensive and defensive ratings (points per 100 possessions) for schedule strength.

For context, NCAA averages this year were:
Offense: 100.4
Defense: 100.4
Tempo: 69.1 possessions per game

For context, MIAA averages during conference play this year were:
Tempo: 63.1 possessions
effective field goal percentage: .494
Offensive rebound rate: 30%
Turnover rate: 18%
Free throw rate (FTA per FGA): .35

Mount Union
Mount Union
Overall Rank: #51
Offense: 114.1 (#13)
Defense: 100.0 (#191)
Tempo: 73.1 possessions per game
effective field goal percentage: .585
Offensive rebound rate: 29%
Turnover rate: 20%
Free throw rate (FTA per FGA): .28

Mount Union likes to shoot a lot of threes (167 3PA more than Calvin this year), and they make them. They don't get to the line very much and they're prone to turning the ball over. Don't give them open looks from range. Defense appears average, and they don't rebound the offensive glass all that well (defensive rebounding looks good).

Neumann
Neumann
Overall Rank: #132
Offense: 98.3 (#255)
Defense: 93.8 (#51)
Tempo: 69.2 possessions per game
effective field goal percentage: .487
Offensive rebound rate: 35%
Turnover rate: 22%
Free throw rate (FTA per FGA): .41

Neumann's schedule was a bit soft so maybe the defense isn't quite that good (I can't guarantee that though). They don't shoot particularly well, and they turn the ball over a lot, but they do get to the free throw line a lot. They only made 62.5% of their free throws as a team, so not great, but it appears they have some trouble scoring elsewise. Defense appears quite strong and rebounding is solid.

Calvin
Calvin
Overall Rank: #64
Offense: 113.7 (#15)
Defense: 101.5 (#236)
Tempo: 67.7 possessions per game
effective field goal percentage: .536
Offensive rebound rate: 38%
Turnover rate: 18%
Free throw rate (FTA per FGA): 0.34

Good offense that can score in a variety of ways. Gets to the free throw line a decent amount. Rebounds both the offensive and defensive glass very well. Defense is questionable at times, and they don't force many turnovers.

Oswego State
Oswego State
Overall Rank: #75
Offense: 105.1 (#105)
Defense: 94.6 (#61)
Tempo: 65.3 possessions per game
effective field goal percentage: .495
Offensive rebound rate: 29%
Turnover rate: 15%
Free throw rate (FTA per FGA): 0.27

Solid on offense though not spectacular. They shoot (and make) threes at about the same rate that Calvin does. They don't force their way to the free throw line much, but they take care of the ball on offense. I think Calvin will want to force them inside without doubling. Oswego doesn't score as well inside the arc, and Calvin has the length advantage. Below average rebounding team on both sides of the floor.

Statistical score predictions:

First Round
Mount Union 79, Neumann 72 (Massey: Mount Union 83, Neumann 66)
Calvin 69, Oswego State 68 (Massey: Calvin 71, Oswego State 66)

Second Round
Mount Union 83, Calvin 80 (Massey: Mount Union 83, Calvin 77)
Mount Union 76, Oswego State 72 (Massey: Mount Union 79, Oswego State 69)
Calvin 73, Neumann 67 (Massey: Calvin 76, Neumann 64)
Oswego State 64, Neumann 60 (Massey: Oswego State 67, Neumann 60)

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