Sunday, March 1, 2015

Mock Final Regional Rankings

What a night, am I right?

I've been tracking regional data numbers all year, so I thought I'd sit down and collect some thoughts on the selection and bracketing process.

The first thing the regional committees will do is generate a new set of regional rankings. Unfortunately these will never be made public (NCAA transparency issues and all), but we can take a stab at it here. The RACs will be rigorous with their rankings, but we can take a shortcut for out mock selection purposes and use last week's ranking as a guide while removing teams who have received automatic bids.

Pool A bids:

Conference Team Reg.
AMCC Medaille GL
ASC East Texas Baptist SO
CAC Salisbury MA
CC Dickinson MA
CCC Endicott NE
CCIW Augustana CE
CSAC Neumann AT
CUNYAC Baruch AT
E8 St. John Fisher EA
GNAC Albertus Magnus NE
HCAC Defiance GL
IIAC Dubuque WE
LAND Scranton MA
LEC Keene State NE
LL Skidmore EA
MACC Alvernia MA
MACF Misericordia AT
MASCAC Westfield State NE
MIAA Calvin GL
MIAC St. Thomas WE
MWC St. Norbert CE
NAC Colby-Sawyer NE
NATHC Concordia (Wis.) CE
NCAC DePauw GL
NEAC SUNY-Cobleskill EA
NECC Regis (Mass.) NE
NESCAC Wesleyan NE
NEWMAC Babson NE
NJAC Richard Stockton AT
NWC Whitworth WE
OAC Mount Union GL
ODAC Randolph-Macon SO
PrAC St. Vincent GL
SAA Rhodes SO
SCAC Texas Lutheran SO
SCIAC Claremont-Mudd-Scripps WE
SKY Sage AT
SLIAC Spalding CE
SUNYAC Oswego State EA
UAA Emory SO
UMAC Northwestern (Minn.) WE
USAC LaGrange SO
WIAC UW-Whitewater CE

That makes 43 of our 62 bids, leaving us with 19 Pool C bids to give away (there is no Pool B this year).

Now, leaving those teams out the discussion, we can rank the regions using only Pool C candidates. The national committee considers on the top-ranked team from each region at one time, so this is the projected order that teams will "come to the board". We can use last week's rankings as a guide and adjust based on overall numbers, including what happened this week in conference tournaments.

This is still pending the result of the Centenary (La.) vs. Texas Lutheran final. I don't think it will affect what I have here, but it might change some of the numbers slightly. I'll update later on if it does.

I have not adjusted the results versus regionally ranked column to take into account newly ranked teams. That's probably Alvernia in the MA and Concordia (Texas) in the South.

Atlantic Region

Reg. Rank Team Conf WP SOS RPI Rank Pool Status D3 vRRO OVR
AT 1 William Paterson NJAC 0.741 0.565 0.609 22 C 12 20-7 4-3 20-7
AT 2 Brooklyn CUNYAC 0.786 0.507 0.577 61 C 36 22-6 2-3 22-6
AT 3 Rutgers-Newark NJAC 0.667 0.572 0.596 37 C 20 18-9 1-6 18-9

Central Region

Reg. Rank Team Conf WP SOS RPI Rank Pool Status D3 vRRO OVR
CE 1 UW-Stevens Point WIAC 0.808 0.575 0.633 8 C 2 21-5 2-4 21-5
CE 2 Washington U. UAA 0.800 0.565 0.624 10 C 3 20-5 4-2 20-5
CE 3 Illinois Wesleyan CCIW 0.704 0.591 0.619 13 C 6 19-8 5-5 19-7
CE 4 Elmhurst CCIW 0.731 0.551 0.596 36 C 19 19-7 4-4 19-7
CE 5 North Central (Ill.) CCIW 0.667 0.587 0.607 23 C 13 16-8 3-6 18-8

East Region

Reg. Rank Team Conf WP SOS RPI Rank Pool Status D3 vRRO OVR
EA 1 Plattsburgh State SUNYAC 0.704 0.534 0.576 63 C 38 19-8 1-0 19-8
EA 2 New York University UAA 0.680 0.544 0.578 60 C 35 17-8 3-2 17-8
EA 3 Hobart LL 0.720 0.509 0.562 88 C 60 18-7 3-2 18-8
EA 4 Clarkson LL 0.731 0.512 0.567 80 C 54 19-7 2-5 20-7

Great Lakes Region

Reg. Rank Team Conf WP SOS RPI Rank Pool Status D3 vRRO OVR
GL 1 Marietta OAC 0.893 0.519 0.612 20 C 10 25-3 4-3 25-3
GL 2 Ohio Wesleyan NCAC 0.815 0.537 0.607 24 C 14 22-5 3-1 22-5
GL 3 Wooster NCAC 0.786 0.551 0.609 21 C 11 22-6 3-2 22-6
GL 4 John Carroll OAC 0.769 0.527 0.587 48 C 27 20-6 3-3 20-6
GL 5 Penn State-Behrend AMCC 0.885 0.469 0.573 72 C 47 23-3 1-1 23-3
GL 6 Hope MIAA 0.680 0.558 0.588 45 C 25 17-8 2-6 18-9

Middle Atlantic Region

Reg. Rank Team Conf WP SOS RPI Rank Pool Status D3 vRRO OVR
MA 1 Johns Hopkins CC 0.852 0.539 0.617 16 C 7 23-4 3-3 23-4
MA 2 Catholic LAND 0.846 0.506 0.591 39 C 21 22-4 1-3 22-5
MA 3 Franklin and Marshall CC 0.769 0.517 0.580 59 C 34 20-6 3-3 20-6

Northeast Region

Reg. Rank Team Conf WP SOS RPI Rank Pool Status D3 vRRO OVR
NE 1 Amherst NESCAC 0.741 0.579 0.619 12 C 5 20-7 6-3 20-7
NE 2 Trinity (Conn.) NESCAC 0.792 0.535 0.599 29 C 16 19-5 5-1 20-6
NE 3 Bates NESCAC 0.760 0.609 0.647 4 C 1 19-6 4-5 19-6
NE 4 Eastern Connecticut LEC 0.815 0.550 0.617 17 C 8 22-5 0-2 22-5
NE 5 Springfield NEWMAC 0.704 0.584 0.614 18 C 9 19-8 3-5 19-8
NE 6 Bowdoin NESCAC 0.692 0.571 0.601 28 C 15 18-8 1-6 18-8
NE 7 WPI NEWMAC 0.808 0.515 0.588 44 C 24 21-5 2-3 21-5













South Region

Reg. Rank Team Conf WP SOS RPI Rank Pool Status D3 vRRO OVR
SO 2 Virginia Wesleyan ODAC 0.815 0.554 0.619 11 C 4 22-5 0-4 23-5
SO 5 Centre SAA 0.800 0.513 0.584 53 C 30 20-5 1-2 21-5
SO 6 Hardin-Simmons ASC 0.741 0.531 0.583 55 C 31 20-7 2-2 20-7
SO 8 Concordia (Texas) ASC 0.667 0.543 0.574 69 C 44 18-9 4-5 18-10

West Region

Reg. Rank Team Conf WP SOS RPI Rank Pool Status D3 vRRO OVR
WE 1 Bethel MIAC 0.679 0.564 0.592 39 C 21 19-9 4-3 19-8
WE 2 St. Olaf MIAC 0.808 0.527 0.597 35 C 18 21-5 1-5 21-5
WE 3 Whitman NWC 0.792 0.520 0.588 48 C 27 19-5 2-2 20-6
WE 4 Buena Vista IIAC 0.720 0.527 0.576 66 C 41 18-7 3-1 18-8


This is already longer than I expected, so I'll split this into two posts. Here are the rankings, then I'll go through the selection process to follow.

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