Calvin Roster and Ferris State Exhibition Preview

What the water tower really said.

We’re 12 days away from the official tip-off of the season – when Calvin heads to Anderson on November 19 – but in some ways this annual Ferris State exhibition game is more fun than the typical early-season game.

For one, Ferris is always as athletic as any team Calvin will see this season. Two, the expectations are low because Division II and Exhibition. And Three, we haven’t seen basketball for like eight months.

So what do I know about Ferris? Besides their continual attempts to ruin a perfectly excellent color combination, not very much. Last year Calvin lost 63-62 up in Big Rapids, the same -1 scoring margin that Massey would have predicted following the season. The final version of Kenneth Massey’s ratings had Calvin as four point favorites over Ferris on a neutral court, eight point favorites at home, and one point underdogs on the road.

What does that mean for this year? No idea. Probably nothing. Massey’s preseason historical-regression-based ratings (that he uses as a starting point but get damped out as the season goes on) has Calvin being two points worse overall but three point favorites at home. These ratings quite obviously have no idea who’s on what roster or how a team might perform with a new coach.

So the dummy-starter Massey ratings say 59%, but I’ll say closer to 40-45% (without really knowing Ferris’ roster). Really you could make an argument anywhere between 35-65% and I wouldn’t care. That’d represent something like a five point game in either direction.

Speaking of rosters, Calvin has a new one. Six players will be playing with the Varsity for the first time – either Freshmen, transfers, or former JV players – and another three have played basically only mop-up time in their young careers. It feels like there’s a lot of newness to the roster, and there is, but they actually return the second most varsity minutes played of any MIAA team this year, and that doesn’t count junior Kyle MacDonald (Jackson CC) and sophomore BJ Van Loo (Grace Bible) who have experience at the college level.

I don’t know a whole lot about MacDonald, but Coach VandeStreek spoke highly of him in the preseason audio interview, and, reading between the lines, it sounds like he will begin the season as the starter at the point.

Grace Bible doesn’t maintain a very comprehensive statistical archive on their website (read: no stats at all), but I was able to search engine my way to 12 of Van Loo’s box scores from last season (against schools like Calvin, Ferris, Davenport, Aquinas, Spring Arbor, Cornerstone, etc). He played 23 minutes per game with 10 points and 5 rebounds on a .522 effective field goal percentage (basically Calvin’s team average last year) in that sample. Those are pretty good numbers for a freshman, and I’m very comfortable with the competition level (average Massey rank of 1177, Calvin’s average MIAA opponents were 1199).

The frontcourt is going to be very strong. I realy have no read on who the starters will be (besides Tyler Kruis), but it almost doesn’t matter. I still think you go with Kruis-DeVries-Dykstra as your three most experienced and talented players even though both of the forwards are more of the ‘four’ types. I was initially thinking that perhaps we could see some of the bigger guards, like the Jordans Brink and Daley, be pushed up to play some three, but I think it might be more of the opposite. Someone like 6-5 Jordan Mast might be pushed down from somewhat of a ‘three’ to more of a ‘two’. If we’re talking 20+ minutes for Tyler Dykstra, Mickey DeVries, and BJ Van Loo plus some time at the ‘four’ for Dan Stout, there might be fewer than 10 minutes to spread around to fewer options. But that’s all well and good because the backcourt, though high in potential talent, is lower in experience level (especially if Jordan Brink is not at full-go).

Probable Starters and Rotation vs. Ferris

C – Tyler Kruis, Dan Stout

F – Mickey DeVries, Tyler Dykstra, Dan Stout

F – Tyler Dykstra, BJ Van Loo, Jordan Mast

G – Jordan (all)

G – Kyle MacDonald, Austin Parks

These are the 10 guys who I think will open the season in the primary rotation. For now that leaves junior TJ Huizenga, and newcomers Danny Leach, Brad Visser, and Eric Brower mostly at the end of the bench, but I wouldn’t be surprised for one or two of these guys to play versus Ferris (and/or eventually crack the rotation) as Coach KVS tries to figure out exactly how the roster fits together.

Prediction: I think Calvin is very probably the better team, but, I think for this game, the inexperience of the backcourt vs. the generally-more-athletic Division II guards is going to lead to a loss. That’s not a bad thing though, as I think they’ll have better long-term success if they use the game to experiment, learn, and grow rather than simply try to win the game. Ferris 70, Calvin 67

The Creatively Named Calvin-Ferris Recap

The inflatable bulldog thing is very intimidating.

Ferris State 63, Calvin 62 (box score)

This is going to be a decidedly more fun (funner?) recap to write than I thought it would be at halftime. When the teams were going through the layup lines prior to the second half, I declared: “Calvin’s going to make a run, and it will begin right now.” I actually did declare that, with the score 43-23 in favor of the Bulldogs, but I didn’t declare it because I believed it, I was intentionally lying to myself. I needed something that would get me through the remainder of the game and to my post-game Taco Bell. My thinking was that if Calvin could get the deficit down to single digits by the end of the game, then there would be enough positives to take away to keep myself from jumping off the proverbial bridge.

 But Calvin didn’t just whittle it down to single digits, the whittled it down to a single point – and had a couple of chances to win it at the end. At that point basket in or basket out didn’t really matter to me. The win/loss wasn’t all that importing seeing as this was an exhibition game, but what was important was the fact that the Knights ended up going toe-to-toe with an average-or-better Division II team for 40 minutes.

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Ferris State Exhibition Preview

	Game Preview
Who	Ferris State Bulldogs (NCAA Div. II)
What	Exhibition Game
Where	Jim Wink Arena -- Ferris State
When	Tuesday Nov. 6, 7:30 PM
Audio	Calvin Stretch Internet
Video	Ferris Stretch Internet ($7.95)
Live Stats	Ferris Stretch Internet
Tickets	$7 at the door or online
Last Year	Calvin 79, Ferris 72

When We Last Met
The Knights hosted the Bulldogs for last year’s exhibition game (I’m glad they’re now both agreeing to play this game during the exhibition season), and promptly won (for the first time in some time) by a 79-72 score.

The Bulldogs were a young bunch last year, but they finished their season above the .500 mark and tied for the GLIAC North Division crown. Massey rated them as the third best team Calvin saw all season (Hope and Wheaton both rated just a bit better). Exhibition caveats aside, this was – by far – the best offensive game Calvin played all year, posting an offensive efficiency rating of 108.9 (a mark they only bested versus the likes of Finlandia, Trinity, Olivet, and Kalamazoo). Ferris State traveled to Ann Arbor three days later to take on Michigan at Crisler Arena, and there they held the Wolverines to an offensive efficiency rating a shade above 95.

These two data points, unfortunately, meant nothing to the Knights going forward. They stumbled through their least efficient offensive season in well over a decade, and we learned that one game – no matter how good or bad it appears – is still just one game. And an exhibition is just an exhibition. Sometimes shots just go in, and sometimes they just don’t.

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Stats-and-More Versus Ferris State

Game Stats
If you want/need a refresher on some of the stats that I like to use, see these four posts to educate yourself.

Player	%Min	%Shots	eFG%	PPWS	FTr	Ar	TO%	Rb%	eff
Kruis	0.70	0.12	0.600	1.45	0.80	0.18	0.17	0.12	-
DeBoer	0.58	0.30	0.300	0.57	0.10	0.31	0.12	0.12	-
Vallie	0.53	0.10	0.667	1.63	1.33	0.00	0.00	0.13	-
Snikkers	0.53	0.43	0.500	1.19	0.62	0.11	0.10	0.11	-
Mast	0.53	0.07	0.500	0.77	2.00	0.07	0.17	0.05	-
Haverdink	0.50	0.17	0.800	1.46	0.20	0.09	0.13	0.03	-
Rietema	0.48	0.07	0.500	1.00	0.00	0.08	0.50	0.06	-
Powell	0.48	0.36	0.500	1.10	0.20	0.48	0.06	0.06	-
DeVries	0.43	0.16	0.500	1.21	0.50	0.10	0.00	0.13	-
Dykstra	0.13	0.55	0.500	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.11	-
DeYoung	0.13	0.00	0.000	0.00	0.00	0.29	0.50	0.11	-
Calvin	1.00	1.00	0.509	1.12	0.45	0.61	0.18	0.50	108.9
Opponent	1.00	1.00	0.458	0.99	0.49	0.13	0.18	0.50	99.2

A few things that jumped out at me after looking at the numbers:

• It really seemed as though Bryan Powell reigned in his shot attempts, but he still ended up firing up 36% of the teams shots while he was on the floor (his average for last year was 25%). The big difference was that he was efficient with his shots in this game and, although he was 0-3 on three pointers, none of his attempts were “bad shots”.
• Calvin struggled with turnovers on offense last year (they turned it over on 21% of their possessions last year), but against Ferris State, their turnover rate was just 18% (league average is 20%). Maybe that isn’t a huge difference in a single game, but taking care of the ball will be big for Calvin this year.
• The Knights paired a high free throw rate (.45) with a pretty good 77% free throw percentage. Calvin doesn’t have the reliable three point shooters that they’ve had in the past, so they’ll need to use their length and athleticism to get to the basket and get to the line (and knock the free ones down down) to find extra points.
• David Rietema didn’t necessarily impress me in the starting lineup. He’s not a scorer so his contribution will be in taking care of the ball and distributing it to his teammates. Three turnovers isn’t a terrible number, but he’s going to need to learn that he can’t dribble around/through everyone at this level.

Rotations
This one is new for me, but I think it’s pretty cool. Here’s a look at all of the player combinations that Calvin had on the floor at any point, and how they performed (sorted by minutes).

Continue Reading This Post >>

Fear, Elation, Reality

Calvin 79, Ferris State 72 (box score)

Fear
I really had no idea how this game would play out. Ferris State is always a very fast and athletic team, and they're always good enough to give Calvin a battle (and usually they win). Would they come out and beat the tar out of the young Knights? Would they force 30 turnovers, shoot nearly 60%, and leave no room for optimism? That's what I was afraid of.

Calvin had (and still has) a lot of question marks heading into the year, and although they didn't eliminate all of our doubts this evening, they did prove to us that our worst fears probably aren't coming true.

Elation
I said in my game preview that Calvin fans should be ecstatic with a win. Well, they won, and I'm nearly there. They beat a pretty tough opponent and, although there were some bumps along the way, they looked pretty darn good doing it. Everyone that played showed flashes of being a solid contributor this season. They probably don't have the top-end talent that we're used to seeing from a Calvin team (excepting Tom Snikkers, of course), but they went eleven deep tonight and I never noticed a drop off on either end of the floor. They have the type of roster that will allow for near limitless combinations and possibilities, and we may end up feeling pretty confident with each one.

Now, Ferris State isn't going to be an outstanding Division II team this year -- they lost several of their top players to graduation, most notably All-American Justin Keenan -- but they're probably also just about as tough a team as Calvin will see all year. It's encouraging to see Calvin put up good numbers in their first showing, especially against a quality team.

Calvin's offensive efficiency rating (points scored per 100 possessions) for the game was 108.9 (the average for last season was 107.3). They hit or exceeded 108.9 ten times last year, winning nine of the games.

Calvin's defensive efficiency rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) against Ferris was 99.2 (the average last year was 100.3). They held their opponent to a 99.2 or lower rating 12 times last year, winning 10 of the games.

That's the recipe for success. They were solid on both ends of the floor against a solid opponent. If they can repeat these types of numbers throughout the year, then we'd be looking at a team that ended up winning 18-20 games.

Reality
But we really can't take too, too much away from this game because, after all, it was an exhibition game. Our Knights made us proud, but they are an inexperienced bunch, and we should expect to witness some struggles down the road.

In the end, this was just one game and it didn't even count. Let's take away some positives, identify some weaknesses, and get ready for the real thing to begin.

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Ferris State Exhibition Preview

	Game Preview
Who	Ferris State Bulldogs (NCAA Div. II)
What	Exhibition Game
Where	Van Nord Arena -- Calvin College
When	Tuesday Nov. 8, 7:30 PM
Audio	Stretch Internet
Video	Stretch Internet
Live Stats	Calvin Live Stats
Tickets	$5 at the door or online
Last Year	Ferris 91, Calvin 69

When We Last Met
The Knights traveled to Big Rapids at the beginning of last season for a game that didn't count in the regular season standings for Calvin, but did for Ferris State. The Division II season starts on Nov. 11 (I believe), so they can count the games from that date on, but the Division III regular season doesn't begin until Nov. 15.

Anyway, Calvin was able to hang in the game for 23 or 24 minutes (they trailed by only three points three minutes into the second half), but in the end, Calvin wasn't necessarily trying to win the game. Coach Vande Streek was still trying to see exactly what he had, and hadn't zeroed in on his eventual rotation yet. Tyler Kruis received only nine minutes of playing time, Mitch Vallie got 15 minutes of action, and even Mike Fabiyi saw a handful of minutes.

This Season
Like Calvin, Ferris State will be looking to replace a ton of production. They return eight players from last year's team, only one of which was in the starting lineup a season ago. Most notably, they're missing Justin Keenan, who was one of the most dominating players in Division II for the past few seasons.

Calvin is returning 48% of their minutes, 45% of their points, and 44% of their rebounds from last year. Ferris State returns only 41% of their minutes, 31% of their points, and 38% of their rebounds. In addition to Ferris' eight returning players is six freshmen.

Ferris already has two exhibition games under their belts, a 27 point loss to Michigan State at the Breslin Center, and a 13 point win over Grace Bible up in Big Rapids.

My gut feeling for Ferris State is that they'll be able to score the ball, but defense may be a concern for them. In order to be successful, Calvin is going to need to limit second chances for the Bulldogs, and be efficient with their own offensive opportunities.

Sure-to-be-wrong Prediction
I really have no beat on how this game will go, because I don't even know this year's version of the Calvin team, let alone the Ferris squad. I think we should be ecstatic if Calvin wins, reasonably happy if they stay within single digits, "fine" if the margin is 10-15, and concerned if it approaches or exceeds 20.

This game and season could go either way. We could see a 14-13 final record, or we could be surprised by a player or three and find 19 or 20 wins by the end of the year (though, if I had to guess, I'd say 17 wins). In the same way, I have no Idea if Ferris is going to easily run away with this one, or if Calvin is going to send them away with the loss. Really, no idea here.

But I'll say Ferris by 9. Calvin's going to impress us at times though.

Calvin-Ferris: It wasn't as bad as this looks

I hate to follow up the Knights' most recent loss by reminding everyone about the one that came before it (hey, it was exhibition!) but I came across a highlight video from Calvin's game against Ferris State.

Some things to remember when watching this highlights package: It was an exhibition game for Calvin against a division II opponent, Ferris State didn't shoot about 95% despite what the video suggests, and Calvin did score a few buckets of their own.

It Wasn't All Bad

Ferris State 91, Calvin 69

The exhibition loss to the Ferris State Bulldogs will look bad in the newspaper box score, but Calvin fans shouldn't get down on the team with this result. No, a 22 point loss can never be considered good, but this was the Bulldogs' third game, and in their previous two, they beat Aquinas by 30, and took Indiana (not State, Purdue Forty Wayne, or even Wesleyan) to overtime. Last year's Calvin team lost to FSU by 20, and they went on to win the league.

We did get a few good positives out of the loss. First, Bryan Powell was the game's high scorer with 22 points. We know he's not afraid to shoot, so it will be good if he can match this 8-16 performance (including 6-9 from downtown). OK, so we can't expect him to match that very often, but these numbers are a far cry from his shooting percentages last year. All we ask for is improvement, and Bryan's game made me happy.

Good thing number two came with the Jordan Brink's stat line. He scored in double figures in his first collegiate action. I'd take 11 points on 4-7 shooting all day, every day, from a freshman.

I'll also give kudos to Brad Schnyders. My key for him this year is free throw shooting. He gets to the line a lot but hasn't seen the complete benefit due to a poor percentage from the line. Friday, he was 4-5. I'll take it. He deserves a little bit of a wrist slap for attempting a three pointer (just take it to the hole!), but I couldn't actually see or hear the game, so maybe he got stuck with the ball at the end of a shot clock or something. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

Turnovers were a problem for the Knights, but that's probably to be expected against an athletic team from an upper division. Don't make it a trend, but I won't say anything more here about it.

Bit of a tough night for both Brian Haverdink and Tom Snikkers; it doesn't sound like either could find their shot, but I still have big expectations for these two this year. I'm not concerned.

Rebounding is going to have to be a group effort this year. To only get out-rebound by five isn't as bad as I expected, but I'm still nervous about this aspect of the game.

The final score screams defensive concerns (as does the 0.61 eFG%), but again, I didn't see the game so I can't really speak to it. Putting up 69 points of offense against a D2 team doesn't seem too bad though.

The good news is that Calvin shouldn't see a better team than Ferris all year.

Stats
Here's the advanced offensive numbers for the Knights (sorted by %MIN):

Player	%MIN	%SHOTS	eFG%	FTr	PPWS
Bryan Powell	0.70	0.35	0.688	0.0	1.38
Jordan Brink	0.65	0.17	0.786	14.3	1.47
Tom Snikkers	0.53	0.26	0.222	22.2	0.50
Danny Rodts	0.48	0.23	0.643	0.0	1.29
Brian Haverdink	0.43	0.22	0.333	0.0	0.67
Brad Schnyders	0.40	0.15	0.500	125.0	1.25
Adam DeYoung	0.40	0.00	0.000	0.0	0.00
Brent Schuster	0.38	0.21	0.500	0.0	1.00
Mitch Vallie	0.38	0.16	0.250	50.0	0.61
Matt DeBoer	0.38	0.12	0.000	0.0	0.00
Tyler Kruis	0.23	0.21	0.000	0.0	0.00
Michael Fabiyi	0.08	0.21	1.000	0.0	2.00

Bryan Powell's going to get a lot of credit for his large point total (and rightfully so), but the chart respects Jordan Brink's effort on offense even more. Good stuff.

Next First up: Davenport.

Ferris State Exhibition Preview

	Calvin at Ferris State
Who	NCAA D2 (GLIAC)
What	Preseason Exhibition
Where	Ferris State University - Big Rapids, MI
When	Saturday, Nov. 13 - 7:30 PM
Radio	WFUR 102.9 FM
Audio	Stretch Internet
Video	(Ferris) America One (pay)
Live Stats	(Ferris) Presto Sports
Tickets	(Ferris) (231) 591-2888
Directions	Google Maps
Last Year	Ferris 88, Calvin 68

It's finally game time! The end result won't count in the standings (and that's a good thing for Calvin fans), but we won't let that stop us from having a good time.

Statistical Comparison
The unfortunate thing about the beginning of a brand new season (for nerds like me) is the lack of useful statistical information. The only thing we have to go on is last years' numbers, but the teams are obviously somewhat different now than they were last year. Here are the numbers anyway:

2010 Team Metrics	Calvin	Ferris	Advantage
Calvin eFG% vs. Ferris DeFG%	0.499	0.493	Calvin
Calvin DeFG% vs. Ferris eFG%	0.490	0.511	Ferris
Calvin TO% vs. Ferris DTO%	0.201	0.209	Ferris
Calvin DTO% vs. Ferris TO%	0.171	0.199	Ferris
Calvin ORb% vs. Ferris DRb%	0.372	0.644	Calvin
Calvin DRb% vs. Ferris ORb%	0.705	0.347	Even
Calvin FTr vs. Ferris DFTr	0.457	0.410	Calvin
Calvin DFTr vs. Ferris FTr	0.267	0.401	Calvin
Calvin OEff vs. Ferris DEff	107.7	104.2	Calvin
Calvin DEff vs. Ferris OEff	101.5	106.1	Ferris

For an explanation of these statistics, see What I'm Using: Team Metrics.

I'm figuring the advantage as if Ferris was a D3 opponent, ignoring the fact that they're numbers were earned versus a D2 schedule. I don't think this would ever be a problem during the regular season. Calvin's non-D3 opponents feature a smattering of NAIA-II schools that are very comparable to D3, and Grace Bible, who was MIAA caliber last year. I don't have a hard and fast method of determining 'advantage,' but for now I'm going off of absolue difference from MIAA average. For example, last year's average eFG% in the MIAA was .485. An offense that shot .490 against a defense that held opponents to .480 would be considered 'even'. Don't know if that's the best way to do it, but I will roll with it for now.

Here's a quick summary of what each team has returning from a year ago. Hopefully this provides some context to what was lost.

Returning	Calvin	Ferris
%Min	0.621	0.643
%Shots	0.605	0.599
%ORb	0.651	0.748
%DRb	0.702	0.624

Last Meeting
Calvin actually hung in the game for 27 minutes, but the Bulldogs' athleticism finally wore out the Knights. Ferris State outscored Calvin by 19 points over the final 12:13 to turn a one point lead into a 20 point win. I was a bit nervous after the bench only combined to go 3-21 from the field, but they were an inexperienced group. The big take away lesson from last year's exhibition matchup is that a 20 point loss to Ferris in no way spells doom for the season. The Knights continued to struggle with inconsistency through December, but they found a way to come together and win the MIAA. I wouldn't be altogether shocked if this year's squad shows a simlar stumble out of the gate, but I expect them to be more than competitive come league play.

Key Matchup
I'm very interested to see how Calvin's post players fare against Justin Keenan. The Bulldog big man has been named Division II's Preseason National Player of the Year. He's a load, and I wouldn't expect him to be stopped, but it will provide a nice opportunity for the inexperienced Calvin frontcourt. They'll have as much of a battle as they want. Experience, yo.

Sure-To-Be-Wrong Prediction
In earlier exhibition action, the Bulldogs walloped Aquinas by 30, and then they lost to Indiana in overtime (but really should have won it in regulation). I'm guessing Calvin's talent level is closer to that of Aquinas and not Indiana. Ferris State by 25.