Sunday, December 12, 2010

Plus/Minus Versus The Trinity Trolls

There wasn't any substitution data with the MIAA-CCIW Classic games last week, but we got it for Saturday's game in Palos Heights.

Versus Trinity

Player plus    minus  +/-MIN +/min    -/min    P.M./min 
Rodts72675322.252.090.16
Snikkers60546272.222.000.22
Powell51492261.961.880.08
Haverdink483612222.181.640.55
Schuster563719222.551.680.86
Brink533815202.651.900.75
Schnyders44440182.442.440.00
DeBoer32284152.131.870.27
DeYoung24240102.402.400.00
Kruis1018-881.252.25-1.00
Fabiyi00000.000.000.00
Greene00000.000.000.00
Rietema00000.000.000.00
Salo00000.000.000.00
Vallie00000.000.000.00
Team450395552002.251.980.28

Not to much to say about this. You know I don't like to analyze one game's worth of +/- numbers. Probably tells us very little about individuals.

Season Total

We'll add this game into our season totals. Only half of the season is included (3 full games and two halves), so we're still a little ways away from being able to draw strong conclusions, but I think we're getting there. It feels like we are anyway.

Included: Davenport, Ohio Wesleyan (first half), Aquinas (first half), Cornerstone, and Trinity.
Not included: Grace Bible, Ohio Wesleyan (second half), Aquinas (second half), Wheaton, and Carthage.

Playerplusminus+/-MIN+/min-/min P.M./min 
Rodts246222241232.001.800.20
Powell217187301082.011.730.28
Snikkers215193221032.091.870.21
Schuster17615818901.961.760.20
Brink20015050892.251.690.56
Haverdink1631594851.921.870.05
Schnyders13812414612.262.030.23
DeBoer1158926532.171.680.49
DeYoung95914432.212.120.09
Kruis5054-4311.611.74-0.13
Vallie2123-2121.751.92-0.17
Fabiyi40414.000.004.00
Greene00000.000.000.00
Rietema00000.000.000.00
Salo00000.000.000.00
Team164014501907992.051.810.24

I think there's more variation possible in the numbers for the subs, and the starters that don't play quite as many minutes (like Jordan Brink). Guys like Danny and Tommy are playing 75%ish of the game, so their +/- numbers are going to be more or less similar to the game (or season's) scoring margin. That makes sense, though, because they have the most time to impact the game.

Two names in particular jump out: Jordan Brink and Matt DeBoer. I like to check out the plus-miuns per minute rate state (P.M./min) to compare all of the guys on a level playing field. Five guys are floting around in the 0.20's range that's around the team average, a couple are in the single digit range, but Brink and DeBoer are up around 0.50!

I don't know if this is an effect of the substitution pattern, if these two somehow benefit from being on the floor with a lot of other "good" players or not, but it's encouraging to me. I've been high on Jordan all year, but DeBo has really excited me the last couple of games. It's like he's calmed himself down or something.

It's interesting that if you go off of this chart, the top five "offensive team" players are Brink, Schnyders, Snikkers, DeBoer, and DeYoung (going off of +/min). The top five "defensive team" players are Brink, Powell, DeBoer, Rodts, and Schuster (going off of -/min). I think that goes to show that we still need more data. I think the eye test says Schuster is the better offensive player and DeYoung is the better defensive player. We're actually probably seeing some bias here. Coach will often sub in DeYoung on defense and Schuster on offense late in games, so Brent gets fewer opportunities of minuses in late game minutes.

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