Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Hope Preview

 The Rivalry
WhoHope
WhereHolland, MI
WhenWed. -- 8:00 PM
TVWGVU
Web VideoStretch Internet
Web AudioStretch Internet
LiveStatsStats
TicketsSold out
DirectionsGoogle Maps

When We Last Met
It was the MIA championship game last year. The winner was guaranteed a spot in the NCAA tournament, and the loser would be placed firmly on the bubble. The thought was that Hope had a pretty good shot at getting in, but that Calvin's chances were closer to 50-50. Hope won the game by four, and Calvin wasn't selected by the esteemed NCAA selection committee.

Insert YouTube videos of Kevin Kooiker staring at, and not calling, two fouls that are called 101 times out of 100 in D3 play during the final minute of the game:

Andy Venema all over Paul Campbell's back:


Peter Bunn "stripping" John Mantel from behind:


...but the past is the past.

This Year
Calvin lost John Mantel, Matt Veltema, and Paul Campbell to graduation. Trent Salo is likely still out due to injury (or at least, not yet back to form).

Hope is minus Chris Nelis and Scott Jungling, who graduated, Peter Bunn, who's out for the year with an undisclosed injury, and probably Andy Venema, who hasn't played since the first game of the year (injury).

These two teams are usually plenty familiar with each other, but we have many more unknowns than knowns this time around.

MatchupCalvinHopeAdv.
Calvin eFG% vs. Hope DeFG%0.5220.532Calvin
Calvin DeFG% vs. Hope eFG%0.4920.551Hope
Calvin TOr vs. Hope DTOr0.210.24Hope
Calvin DTOr vs. Hope TOr0.190.18-
Calvin ORb% vs. Hope DRb%0.360.70-
Calvin DRb% vs. Hope ORb%0.690.34-
Calvin FTr vs. Hope DFTr0.300.33Hope
Calvin DFTr vs. Hope FTr0.330.35-
Calvin OEff vs. Hope DEff107.32101.74Calvin
Calvin DEff vs. Hope OEff103.08113.30Hope

I'm kind of surprised how even these teams look statistically. Hope looks to have the advantage, but there's not much to choose between the two when looking at the "four factors" (eFG%, TOr, Rb%, FTr). The offenses have the advantage when it comes to shooting percentage, but after that there's not a whole lot. Hope's advantage in the turnover rage isn't mind-boggling (but it is there), and their advantage in free throw rate is also slim.

Efficiencies tell a different story. Hope appears to be much more efficient on offense than Calvin is, and they're a bit more stingy on defense.

Hope's definitely the favorite (especially at home), but I expected them to own the board a little bit more.

(Likely) Starters and Key Subs

Calvin
Player%Min%ShotsPPWSeFG%TO%Rb%FTr
Rodts0.720.201.200.5850.140.090.24
Snikkers0.660.301.170.5460.220.130.34
Powell0.620.230.990.4780.200.050.13
Brink0.600.121.420.6810.280.100.32
Schuster0.590.211.080.5190.110.120.21
Haverdink0.510.140.950.4330.120.050.20
Schnyders0.450.281.100.4690.140.100.59
DeBoer0.340.211.150.5640.340.080.23
DeYoung0.240.050.990.2500.380.151.63
Kruis0.210.130.840.3890.290.180.11

Hope
Player%Min%ShotsPPWSeFG%TO%Rb%FTr
Bowser0.700.261.170.5630.150.090.42
Krombeen0.680.271.160.5490.150.090.26
Tanis0.630.191.110.5190.140.020.26
Snuggerud0.600.231.100.5000.130.170.35
Dickerson0.540.181.240.6410.280.140.13
Overway0.430.091.130.4810.370.050.93
Neil0.400.181.590.7600.090.070.36
Ray0.360.141.100.5140.170.130.40
Holwerda0.200.171.060.4780.240.140.65
Seiler0.200.140.670.1940.270.090.50

I think the offenses with be the story. Lots of efficient scorers on both sides. I wouldn't be surprised to see both teams' point totals end up in the 80's, but it's a Calvin-Hope game, so upper 50's or 60's isn't out of the question either.

Sure to be Wrong Prediction
Hope by 6
Need to win level: medium
expected to win level: medium-low

2 comments:

  1. Oh Yee of little Faith...Calvin by 14! (It's the 'morning after.')

    ReplyDelete
  2. @Dick Mc D, I'm happy to be wrong about this one!

    ReplyDelete