Friday, January 28, 2011

Hope Preview

WhoHope Flying Dutchmen
WhereVan Noord Arena
WhenSaturday -- 3:00 PM

When We Last Met:

That was a 14 point win, and that was freakin' sweet.


Calvin eFG% vs. Hope DeFG%0.5160.529Calvin
Calvin DeFG% vs. Hope eFG%0.4780.551Hope
Calvin TOr vs. Hope DTOr0.210.23Hope
Calvin DTOr vs. Hope TOr0.200.18Hope
Calvin ORb% vs. Hope DRb%0.3690.691Calvin
Calvin DRb% vs. Hope ORb%0.6990.339-
Calvin FTr vs. Hope DFTr0.340.36-
Calvin DFTr vs. Hope FTr0.310.35Calvin
Calvin OEff vs. Hope DEff107.7102.7Calvin
Calvin DEff vs. Hope OEff101.2113.8Hope

Both defenses are going to have a tough time stopping the opposing offense. Both Calvin and Hope have shot over 50% (eFG%) from the floor this season, and as we see, the efficiency ratings favor the offenses.

From an efficiency standpoint, neither side has established themselves as being particularly strong on defense.

The way it looks from the stats, Hope's biggest advantage is going to come in the turnover department, while Calvin's edge will likely come on the boards.

The Knights shot the lights out in the first meeting, but if their eFG% fell from 0.625 to their season average of 0.516, that would take about seven points off the board. That fact is comforting to me because it means that it wasn't simply a special shooting night that won the game.

We probably won't see Calvin win the rebounding battle 46-21 again either, but I still do expect them to hold the advantage. Maybe more like a five to seven margin though.

If we regress all of the stats from the previous meeting toward the teams' season averages, I think we'd see that the team match up pretty evenly. I'm not expecting another blowout; I'm expecting more of a heart-pounding-out-of-my-chest type finish.

Sure To Be Wrong Prediction
Hope by 4 (don't hate me)
Need to win level: High
Expected to win level: Medium
Massey Prediction: Calvin 81, Hope 80 (50% chance of victory).

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