Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Plus/Minus Versus Trine

Game Chart
Player(+)(-)(+/-)MIN(+)/min(-)/min(+/-)/min
Brink38353182.111.940.17
DeBoer85351.601.000.60
DeYoung271710122.251.420.83
Fabiyi00000.000.000.00
Greene00000.000.000.00
Haverdink2832-4142.002.29-0.29
Kruis27270151.801.800.00
Powell39309221.771.360.41
Rietema00000.000.000.00
Rodts63594321.971.840.13
Salo40373231.741.610.13
Schnyders1621-5101.602.10-0.50
Schuster42357251.681.400.28
Snikkers42420241.751.750.00
Vallie00000.000.000.00
Team370340302001.851.700.15

It's interesting that the +/min and -/min numbers for the game are nearly identical to the season averages. But it makes sense. The pace of the game wasn't really faster or slower than has become normal, and the final point totals were similar to what we've seen in Calvin games. No real significance to this fact, but it's interesting.

Season Totals:
Player(+)(-)(+/-)MIN(+)/min(-)/min(+/-)/min
Rodts772704684041.911.740.17
Snikkers709642673741.901.720.18
Schuster659575843421.931.680.25
Powell631546853371.871.620.25
Brink618524943062.021.710.31
Schnyders468443252501.871.770.10
Haverdink396410-142211.791.86-0.06
Kruis271279-81771.531.58-0.05
DeYoung248233151361.821.710.11
DeBoer252226261291.951.750.20
Salo165168-31071.541.57-0.03
Vallie2324-1151.531.60-0.07
Fabiyi81742.000.251.75
Greene00000.000.000.00
Rietema00000.000.000.00
Team5220477544528021.861.700.16

I'm continually amazed at how good Bryan Powell's defensive numbers look. We know that plus/minus numbers are heavily influenced by randomness, but that doesn't change the fact that opponents actually have scored (significantly?) fewer points when he's in the game than when he isn't.

On the year (in the games we've been able to reference), Calvin has given up 1.82 points per minute without Bryan on the floor. When he is on the court, they've only allowed 1.62 points per minute. That's a difference of 0.20 points per minute or 8 points per 40 minutes.

But, sadly, I don't know that we can still say very much about his individual defense given these numbers. My (rather crude) calculations show that in 337 minutes, this statistic has a standard deviation of around 0.08. So, the difference between Bryan's 1.62 number and the team average of 1.70 could be explained by pure randomness without too much argument. Or we could say that we're roughly 84% confident that he's a team average defender or better, but someone else might have to validate whether or not that's a mathematically valid statement.

Another thing we do know is that Calvin has been significantly in the plus when Jordan Brink is on the floor. He's only been averaging 18 minutes over the last four games, and that's not enough for my taste. I'd like to seem him north of 20 in every game. I'm talking out of both sides of my mouth a little bit, as he has been the guard that's most prone to turnovers, and I've been a staunch opponent of Calvin turnovers. Still, I can't shake the feeling that this kid is one of the five best players on the team.

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