Previewing the 2021-22 MIAA Season

All eight MIAA men's basketball teams have completed their non-conference schedules and will move to conference play beginning on January 5.

Coming into the season, Trine was the heavy favorite after returning nearly everyone from the team that went 17-1 (5-0 MIAA) and won the conference tournament in the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season. That expectation has perhaps shifted after a non-conference season that saw Trine lose four games (and record a few uncomfortable wins against inferior competition).

Calvin has seemingly supplanted the Thunder as the league favorite as league play begins on Wednesday. Here's a look at where each team stands in the efficiency ratings I run for all of Division III men's basketball:

 

D3 Rank	Team	AdjEM	AdjO	AdjD
25	Calvin	22.4	113.8	91.5
72	Albion	13.8	104.7	90.9
70	Trine	14.0	101.4	87.5
77	Hope	12.6	108.5	95.9
167	Olivet	3.0	96.8	93.8
258	Kalamazoo	-3.7	101.3	105.0
267	Adrian	-4.5	97.2	101.7
297	Alma	-8.1	96.6	104.6

A quick explainer for those who haven't followed my ratings: Adjusted efficiency margin is the difference between a team's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings (the 'adjusted' means the calculations are iterated to account for quality of opponent). This is the number of points they'd be expected to outscore an average D3 team in 100 possessions. The offensive rating (AdjO) is how many points they'd be expected to score (per 100 possessions) and the defensive rating (AdjD) is how many points they'd be expected to give up (per 100 possessions).

So based on results* to date, we have something like four tiers of teams forming in the MIAA. Calvin is alone in tier 1 as a (fringe) Top-25 caliber team, Albion, Trine, and Hope are bunched up very tightly in tier 2, Olivet is in their own tier a bit above D3 average, and Kalamazoo, Adrian, and Alma are in the fourth tier a bit below average.

*I only calculate data from D3 vs. D3 games so nothing against D1, D1, or NAIA is included here.

The cool thing about these efficiency ratings is that we can use them to predict scores for individual matchups. If we add in a few points for home court advantage, we can predict the outcome of any game. So, for example, my computer favors Calvin over Albion in Wednesday's conference opener 74-72 and gives Calvin a 59% chance of winning the game. If I run these percentages for all 56 conference games, I get the following expected standings:

 

Team	Expected Wins	Expected Losses	Expected PF	Expected PA
Calvin	11.8	2.2	1148	957
Albion	9.5	4.5	1061	969
Trine	9.5	4.5	1000	910
Hope	9.1	4.9	1078	1001
Olivet	6.0	8.0	1060	1098
Kalamazoo	4.0	10.0	967	1076
Adrian	3.4	10.6	1065	1203
Alma	2.7	11.3	960	1124

Now, obviously, the standings won't end up exactly like this. Someone (Olivet) is going to win some games they're not supposed to win and we'll likely end up with more bunching towards the middle as teams get familiar with each other. But that's the way the computer sees the league shaping up before we play the games.

For Calvin in particular, they're going to have to make hay the first time through the league schedule as they have Hope, Trine, and Olivet at home and only Albion on the road of the other MIAA teams with a positive adjusted efficiency margin. They'll really need to be 5-2 (or preferably better) in those first seven games to feel really good about their chances to win the regular season conference title.

Looking ahead to the NCAA Tournament, the MIAA is most probably a one-bid league. It's not likely that the tournament runner up will have the resume required to receive an at-large bid. Most of the league is exiting non-conference play with a strong strength of schedule, but the league's overall non-conference record means those SOS numbers are going to decrease as we go.

I see Calvin, Hope, Albion, and Trine all staying a fair bit above the .500 strength-of-schedule Mendoza line that is the de facto requirement for NCAA Tournament selection, but not so far above that they'll be a strong contender unless they're also touting winning percentages in the .850 range (or so). That's... probably not going to happen. The best case for an at-large berth from the MIAA is for one of these teams to go 12-2 or 13-1 in conference play and then lose in the conference tournament final, and even that might not be enough to escape the bubble.

Turning our attention to opening night on Wednesday, it looks like we have a great slate of competitive games. Here's what my score predictor expects:

Away		Home		Home %	Away%	Pace	Line	Total
Olivet	86	Adrian	83	40%	60%	89	+3.0	169.5
Trine	66	Hope	68	60%	40%	69	-3.0	134.0
Kalamazoo	72	Alma	73	53%	47%	69	-1.0	145.0
Calvin	74	Albion	72	41%	59%	72	+2.5	146.0

All four games are 60%-40% or tighter and none of the expected score differentials are wider than one possession. The winners -- particularly of Trine-Hope and Calvin-Albion will have a leg up in the conference race. It should be a good night of basketball. 

Trine Not To Think Too Far Ahead

Calvin 56, Trine 43 (box score)

This was really the first game Calvin had won this year purely with defense. You could also throw in the Adrian game perhaps, and maybe Aquinas and Cornerstone, but none of those three games were as extreme as this one.

Calvin couldn’t score, plain and simple, but the defense allowed them to hang in there and make a game of it until the baskets started falling. Remember this?

There are good days and bad days. There are games where shots don’t fall. There are games where the ball seems to take weird bounces. This happens – and will happen again at some point down the stretch – but this isn’t what WANT is about. It’s a decision – a repeated decision that’s made every moment – to stay calm, stay focused, stay controlled, stay team-oriented, and stay dominant.

I had very literally written that two days before this game, and that’s pretty much what happened. Calvin didn’t score a point for nearly seven minutes (a Dan Stout free throw), and didn’t make a field goal for the first ten minutes -- nine minutes and fifty nine seconds, actually, if you want to be literal about it. But even then, one-quarter of the way through the game, with one field goal in and three points on the board, the Knights found themselves down only six points.

Trine jumped out to the quick 9-0 lead inside the first five or six minutes, but the Calvin defense clamped down then and there, and only allowed 34 more points the rest of the game. It was the best defensive output of the season, holding Trine to a 68.1 efficiency rating – the first time they’d held an opponent under 70 all year.

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The Replacements



Yes Woody, Seniors will have to be replaced.


Zac and I (and our wives, and my child) drove out to Minneapolis for Memorial weekend, so we had lots of time to discuss sports (mostly Tigers baseball and Calvin hoops). We left Friday after work (with an expected 3:00 AM (EST) arrival time, so we needed to keep conversation going to ensure the driver stayed alert.

Anyway, one of the topics that came up was the outlook for the 2012 MIAA season. Who will be the favorite? Who’s going to fill out the top four? We couldn’t really decide, so we played a rousing game of “better or worse”. Our reactions for each teams was as follows:

Adrian: lots of young players – “better”.
Albion: losing two starters – perhaps “marginally worse”.
Alma: can’t get much worse – “even”.
Calvin: losing good players, but there’s a core of young talent – a biased “marginally better”.
Hope: losing Bowser, Dickerson, and Tanis – “worse”.
Kalamazoo: losing Ryan Clark – “worse”
Olivet: losing “everyone” – “much worse”
Trine: lots of young players – “better”

I’m not saying that this is accurate, but that’s what the gut told us without looking at rosters or playing time or scoring averages. We eventually figured the standings would look something like this:

1 – Calvin – The slight favorite, but not a lock.
2 – Hope – still a very good team. Could win the league or end up third.
3 – Adrian – Will be top three. Could challenge the top two, but they were “only” 7-7 last year.
4 – Albion – Because they’re always in the top four.
5 – Trine – They have enough young players to make a jump in the standings.
6 – Kalamazoo – Hard to replace Ryan Clark, but they won’t be at the bottom.
7 – Olivet – It’s going to be a long year. Losing a ton of talent.
8 – Alma – Still bad.

But I wanted to get a real look at who’s staying, and who’s leaving to get a better of idea of how difficult it will actually be for each team to find replacements. So I crunched some numbers.

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Two To Go

Calvin 72, Trine 65 (box)

I said I wasn't feeling comfortable about this game in the preview post, and the Knights didn't do anything to calm my nerves in the first 15 minutes of the game.

Trine jumped out to an early 7-0 lead, held off a Calvin rally, and eventually stretched the lead to 31-20.

There was five minutes left in the first half, and I felt like I needed to take a walk. Or take up smoking.

But my mother vowed years ago that she would cut off my fingers if I smoked, so that was out. And I didn't really want to crawl over people to reach the aisle, so I decided to stick it out until half time. What I did do was lean over and tell my buddy that Calvin needed to go on a 20-0 run.

That didn't happen.

But they did mount a 16-0 run over the final five minutes of the half to take a five point lead into the locker room. Good enough for me. Walk canceled.

The second half was much more satisfactory. Trine didn't go away quietly, but Calvin never relinquished the lead. By the time the final few minutes were ticking down, the game was really in hand.

To Holland!

Stats

Player	%Min	%Shots	eFG%	PPWS	FTr	Ar	TO%	Rb%
Powell	0.53	0.34	0.222	0.44	0.00	0.59	0.10	0.08
Salo	0.68	0.12	1.125	2.25	0.00	0.00	0.33	0.02
Rodts	0.83	0.24	0.500	1.09	0.40	0.16	0.25	0.15
Snikkers	0.55	0.21	0.917	1.67	1.67	0.33	0.22	0.08
Schuster	0.63	0.22	0.143	0.29	0.00	0.00	0.13	0.09
Brink	0.50	0.24	0.667	1.58	1.00	0.29	0.18	0.14
Haverdink	0.35	0.11	0.750	1.86	3.00	0.33	0.29	0.12
Schnyders	0.33	0.18	0.333	0.67	0.00	0.00	0.40	0.00
Kruis	0.48	0.17	0.000	0.20	0.50	0.00	0.17	0.24
DeYoung	0.15	0.00	0.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.09
Total	1.00	1.00	0.480	1.12	0.55	0.65	0.29	0.58

Another solid game on the boards. The Knights came into the game ranked #18 in D3 in rebounding margin at +7.4 per game. They were +11 tonight. A big part of the advantage came on the offensive end where they grabbed 15 of 32 available rebounds. 46.9% on the offensive end is fantastic (32% is about average). That goes a long way toward scratching out extra points.

It was a tough shooting night for Schuster, Powell, and to some extent Danny Rodts, but Tom Snikkers had a really nice game, and Jordan Brink and Brian Haverdink chipped in a combined 23 points off of the bench.

I'll give Havs the unsung hero award for the game. I really thought he'd have a nice year on the offensive end, but he's struggled more often than not. He really fought for it tonight, and although he was only 1-2 from the floor (both were three point attempts), he drew a few fouls and went 6-6 from the free throw line.

The box score for the game contains a special note:

Calvin hits 15 game pleateau for 27th straight season.

Is that some sort of backhanded compliment to this years' team?

Up Next
Versus Albion at Hope on Friday.

Hope beat Alma handily (but not by 50), so the MIAA semifinals and finals will be held in Holland. Calvin faces off against #3 Albion in the 6:00 PM game, and #1 Hope hosts #5 Adrian at 8:15ish.

Calvin has beaten Albion twice this year, but Friday's game will be nothing like a picnic in the park. Winner gets to face the Hope/Adrian winner on Saturday to battle for the MIAA's automatic NCAA qualifier.

Two wins, and we're in.

MIAA Quarterfinals Preview

MIAA	Quarterfinals
Who	Trine Thunder
Where	Van Noord Arena
When	Wednesday -- 7:30 PM
Web Video	Video
Web Audio	Audio
LiveStats	Stats
Tickets	$7, $3

When We Last Met
It wasn't comfortable, but Calvin came away with a 71-67 victory a week ago.

The Knights shot just 37.7% (eFG%) for the game from the floor, but they shredded Trine on the boards, 54-31, and they got to the free throw line 27 times (making 22, 81.5%). They did the little things.

Matchup
This will be the third meeting between these two teams this season. Both games were won by the Knights, but the margins of victory (4 and 6) leave little reason for comfort.

Here's what we know.

Calvin can destroy Trine on the boards. In the two previous meetings combined, Calvin has out rebounded Trine by a margin of 102-65. That's an average margin of over 18 rebounds per contest; that's huge! It's probably Calvin's biggest edge, so they'll have to continue to exploit it.

These two teams don't shoot well against each other. A quick glance at the stats and you'd think that these meeting would turn into an all-star game type scorefest, but that hasn't been the case at all.

Here's a look at both teams' effective field goal percentages and offensive efficiency ratings for the season as a whole, and for the games involving each other.

Calvin	eFG%	OEff
Totals	0.508	107.9
Versus Trine	0.400	98.6

Trine	eFG%	OEff
Totals	0.514	100.8
Versus Calvin	0.424	91.8

And it's not like Calvin or Trine have the types of defenses that would be expected to stifle the opponent like this. Maybe there's something in the matchup that's causing the offensive woes, but maybe it's just a case of a couple of bad games.

The good news is that Calvin's capable of shooting much better, but then again, so is Trine.

Graphs

The offenses look similar for the most part, with Trine holding slight advantages in three categories. But Calvin shows a huge advantage in the rebounding category, and that has played a large part in the two previous wins.

I’m not feeling particularly comfortable with this matchup. Not nearly as comfortable as I would usually be in a #2-#7 matchup, but Calvin should win this game. Calvin will win this game. You can quote me on that.

Sure To Be Wrong Prediction:
Calvin by 8
Need To Win Level: Very High
Expected To Win Level: High
Massey Prediction: Calvin 82, Trine 73 (81% chance of victory).

Good Teams Find A Way To Win

Calvin 71, Trine 67 (box)

This was the theme of Coach Vande Streek's post game comments. Good teams find a way to win games. When shots aren't falling and you find yourself in a hole, you need to find something, anything, to pull yourselves out of it.

For Calvin last night, that was rebounding and free throw shooting.

Calvin totaled only 29 points in the first half (on only 10-36 from the floor), but they did the little things in the second half to bring home the victory.

In the second half alone, the Knights out rebounded the Thunder by a 27-10 margin. That included a 19-3 advantage for the Knights on their defensive end (Trine's offensive) and a 8-7 advantage on the offensive end (Trine's defensive). It's not very often that you actually out-rebound the defense, but Calvin did it in the second half (they were even for the game).

Ending your opponent's possessions early while extending your own is nice way to grab the lead when you're not shooting the ball particularly well.

Calvin got to the line 17 times in the second half, making 16 of them. The only miss came in the final seconds when Danny Rodts was at the line. He didn't connect on the front end, but hit the second and the game was sealed.

Stats

Player	%Min	%Shots	eFG%	PPWS	FTr	Ar	TO%	Rb%
Rodts	0.70	0.20	0.722	1.41	0.56	0.20	0.08	0.07
Snikkers	0.65	0.31	0.231	0.67	0.31	0.25	0.35	0.09
Schuster	0.68	0.16	0.500	1.13	0.29	0.08	0.11	0.23
Powell	0.35	0.44	0.200	0.40	0.00	0.00	0.09	0.03
Salo	0.60	0.08	0.000	0.82	1.33	0.07	0.00	0.14
Brink	0.55	0.14	0.300	0.84	0.40	0.00	0.34	0.09
Haverdink	0.28	0.34	0.333	0.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.13
Schnyders	0.35	0.22	0.600	1.44	1.40	0.00	0.19	0.13
Kruis	0.58	0.16	0.333	0.67	0.50	0.18	0.12	0.20
DeBoer	0.10	0.15	1.000	2.00	0.00	0.00	0.50	0.12
DeYoung	0.18	0.00	0.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total	1.00	1.00	0.377	0.91	0.42	0.39	0.24	0.64

Nothing flashy in the team line, except the rebounding margin and the free throw rate. The rest of the numbers look downright poor.

Really good games by Rodts, Schuster, and Schnyders. This is the time of year where the seniors must step up and lead the team to a win. I'll say this is especially true for Danny Rodts on the offensive end. He's never been a player to force up a bad shot, but I think he's almost too cautious with his shooting. He's usually always guarded by a smaller player; I'd like to see him shoot over defenders more often.

Maybe we can do somesort of mindset transplant between Rodts and Powell. That might work.

Up Next
It's going to be a big game on Saturday at (historic) Kresge Gymnasium versus Albion. The winner will earn the #2 seed in the MIAA Tournament, and the loser gets the #3.

The #2 seed will get a home game against Trine next Wednesday in the first round. #3 will probably host Kalamazoo, but it would be Adrian if Kalamazoo knocks off Hope on Saturday.

Trine is surely the toughest #7 seed that I've ever seen, but I'd rather not have to face Kzoo or Adrian in the first round. That would not be fun. Especially Adrian.

Trine Preview

Game	Twenty Two
Who	Trine Thunder
Where	Angola, IN
When	Wed. -- 7:30 PM
Web Video	None
Web Audio	Audio
LiveStats	Stats
Directions	Google Maps

When We Last Met
Calvin won by six in a surprisingly low scoring contest. Neither team shot very well, but the Knights killed it on the boards (a 48-34 advantage) and they did well in preventing turnovers (turned it over only 16% of the time compared to a season average of 20%).

We were expecting an offensive showcase, but the defenses won out. Actually it probably wasn't so much the defenses being good as it was the offenses faltering.

Matchup
I got some positive comments last week when I replaced the matchup chart with the graph, so I'm making that a permanent change and adding a comparison of the defenses as well. Here we go for this week. As always, click on the images for a larger version.

The Knights and the Thunder are in a dead heat with respect to their effective field goal percentages (eFG%). Both teams shoot at an above-average pace of 0.517 (again, that's eFG%).

The two teams are very close when it comes to turnover rate (TOr); they're equally spaced across the 0.200 'average' line. Calvin's 0.004 worse than average at protecting the ball, and Trine's 0.004 better than average. That's pretty much a wash (about a half of a point in a game), but Trine has been the slightest bit better.

The rebounding line isn't even close. An average MIAA team will collect about 32% of the available offensive rebounds. Calvin's offense has been grabbing nearly 38% on the year while Trine has been floundering just below the 28% mark. This is the biggest difference between the two offenses. Calvin has been exceptional at extending their possessions, but Trine has been pretty poor. The difference in these ORb% would be about equal to 3.5 extra possessions for the Knights, which would be an advantage of between three and four points (figuring 1.09 points per Calvin possession, their season average).
Trine holds a 2% advantage in free throw rate. That means that for every 100 field goal attempts, they would shoot two more free throws than Calvin. These two teams each take about 60 shots per game, so we could expect Trine to shoot one (1.2, actually) more free throw than the Knights. That's like a one point advantage.

So, these two offenses are pretty close in three of the four factors, but the huge Calvin advantage in rebounding sways the offensive advantage in their favor. This is reflected in offensive efficiency numbers (points per 100 possessions) Calvin: 109.1, Trine: 101.3.

The graph shows a bigger advantage for the Knights on defense, although, curiously, the efficiency numbers on defense don't look as swayed. That's probably because it's easier to look at the number of advantages as bieng significant when really it's the magnitude of the differences that is the significant factor.
Here, we see the Knights hold an advantage in eFG% (allowed), DRb%, and FTr (allowed). The only advantage for the Thuder is a slight bit of turnover rate. And I mean slight.

But the defensive efficiency ratings don't show these two squads as being that different. Calvin's defense rates at 101.9 while Trine's has been 102.3. That's not all that different.

Sure To Be Wrong Prediction
Calvin by 5
Need To Win Level: High
Expected To Win Level: High
Massey Prediction: Calvin 82, Trine 77 (70% chance of victory).

Plus/Minus Versus Trine

Game Chart

Player	(+)	(-)	(+/-)	MIN	(+)/min	(-)/min	(+/-)/min
Brink	38	35	3	18	2.11	1.94	0.17
DeBoer	8	5	3	5	1.60	1.00	0.60
DeYoung	27	17	10	12	2.25	1.42	0.83
Fabiyi	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Greene	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Haverdink	28	32	-4	14	2.00	2.29	-0.29
Kruis	27	27	0	15	1.80	1.80	0.00
Powell	39	30	9	22	1.77	1.36	0.41
Rietema	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Rodts	63	59	4	32	1.97	1.84	0.13
Salo	40	37	3	23	1.74	1.61	0.13
Schnyders	16	21	-5	10	1.60	2.10	-0.50
Schuster	42	35	7	25	1.68	1.40	0.28
Snikkers	42	42	0	24	1.75	1.75	0.00
Vallie	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Team	370	340	30	200	1.85	1.70	0.15

It's interesting that the +/min and -/min numbers for the game are nearly identical to the season averages. But it makes sense. The pace of the game wasn't really faster or slower than has become normal, and the final point totals were similar to what we've seen in Calvin games. No real significance to this fact, but it's interesting.

Season Totals:

Player	(+)	(-)	(+/-)	MIN	(+)/min	(-)/min	(+/-)/min
Rodts	772	704	68	404	1.91	1.74	0.17
Snikkers	709	642	67	374	1.90	1.72	0.18
Schuster	659	575	84	342	1.93	1.68	0.25
Powell	631	546	85	337	1.87	1.62	0.25
Brink	618	524	94	306	2.02	1.71	0.31
Schnyders	468	443	25	250	1.87	1.77	0.10
Haverdink	396	410	-14	221	1.79	1.86	-0.06
Kruis	271	279	-8	177	1.53	1.58	-0.05
DeYoung	248	233	15	136	1.82	1.71	0.11
DeBoer	252	226	26	129	1.95	1.75	0.20
Salo	165	168	-3	107	1.54	1.57	-0.03
Vallie	23	24	-1	15	1.53	1.60	-0.07
Fabiyi	8	1	7	4	2.00	0.25	1.75
Greene	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Rietema	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Team	5220	4775	445	2802	1.86	1.70	0.16

I'm continually amazed at how good Bryan Powell's defensive numbers look. We know that plus/minus numbers are heavily influenced by randomness, but that doesn't change the fact that opponents actually have scored (significantly?) fewer points when he's in the game than when he isn't.

On the year (in the games we've been able to reference), Calvin has given up 1.82 points per minute without Bryan on the floor. When he is on the court, they've only allowed 1.62 points per minute. That's a difference of 0.20 points per minute or 8 points per 40 minutes.

But, sadly, I don't know that we can still say very much about his individual defense given these numbers. My (rather crude) calculations show that in 337 minutes, this statistic has a standard deviation of around 0.08. So, the difference between Bryan's 1.62 number and the team average of 1.70 could be explained by pure randomness without too much argument. Or we could say that we're roughly 84% confident that he's a team average defender or better, but someone else might have to validate whether or not that's a mathematically valid statement.

Another thing we do know is that Calvin has been significantly in the plus when Jordan Brink is on the floor. He's only been averaging 18 minutes over the last four games, and that's not enough for my taste. I'd like to seem him north of 20 in every game. I'm talking out of both sides of my mouth a little bit, as he has been the guard that's most prone to turnovers, and I've been a staunch opponent of Calvin turnovers. Still, I can't shake the feeling that this kid is one of the five best players on the team.

Calvin Wins "Defensive" Battle

Calvin 74, Trine 68

I think the only thing we were sure about headed into this game was that the two teams were going to combine for about a half a million points. But while the score sheet doesn't make it look like it was a low-scoring game, neither side found their stride on offense.

Calvin's offensive efficiency rating (OEff) for the day was 100.1. That's a very league-average day. It's well below their season average of 107 (ish). In fact, they've only had four other games (and only one win) this year in which they've had a poorer OEff than this game. There was the loss against Grace Bible (89.9), the win against Aquinas in the GRSHOF Tournament (87.0), the loss to Wheaton (93.9), and the loss to Kalamazoo (87.7)

But the Calvin defense did well to hold Trine to only 68 points and an OEff of 92.0. That's the third best "defensive" game of the year. The two lower opponent totals came in the loss to Grace (a close 91.3) and the win over Aquinas in the GRSHOF Tournament (a paltry 62.8). I say "defensive" in quotes because there's more than just team defense that drives OEff numbers. We typically attribute a poor FG% to the defense, but sometimes the offense simply misses shots (or takes poor shots to begin with).

I think the Thunder did themselves a disservice in the first half when they so frequently settled for jump shots. They launched 15 three pointers in the first half, and only connected on three of them. The three made attempts came from Neil Smith who was doing his best Wes Weir impersonation.

It seemed that Trine made the adjustment at the half to try to get to the rim with greater frequency, and it worked to a degree. Ian Jackson, who only had three first-half points, ended the day with 22 (although 11 came in the final 1:07 when the game wasn't really in doubt). And Scott Rogers, who only had two points at the break, finished with 12 (and ten second-half free throw attempts). As a team, Trine only shot five three pointers in the second half (and one was a desperation shot of sorts by Ian Jackson with four seconds left).

But I don't think the Calvin defense should escape without any credit. The Brent Schuster-Tyler Kruis duo combined for six blocked shots (four by Kruis), and the Calvin defense frequently smothered Trine in the paint. The Thunder shot 17-40 (42.5%) on their two-point field goals, with 17.5% of those attempts being blocked by a Calvin defender.

Game Chart

Player	%Min	%Shots	eFG%	PPWS	FTr	Ar	TO%	Rb%
Powell	0.55	0.25	0.389	0.78	0.00	0.39	0.00	0.04
Salo	0.58	0.16	0.583	1.01	0.33	0.09	0.29	0.08
Rodts	0.80	0.23	0.500	1.20	0.67	0.07	0.07	0.12
Snikkers	0.60	0.26	0.300	0.81	0.50	0.00	0.24	0.12
Schuster	0.63	0.20	0.375	0.75	0.00	0.17	0.00	0.08
Brink	0.45	0.24	0.571	1.35	0.57	0.51	0.11	0.14
Haverdink	0.35	0.04	0.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.03
Schnyders	0.25	0.25	0.250	0.81	0.50	0.20	0.17	0.10
Kruis	0.38	0.21	0.700	1.16	0.80	0.00	0.17	0.16
DeBoer	0.13	0.37	0.000	0.00	0.00	0.33	0.33	0.29
DeYoung	0.30	0.00	0.000	1.05	0.00	0.28	0.49	0.28
Team	1.00	1.00	0.423	0.95	0.42	0.67	0.16	0.59

I was terrified about Calvin's rebounding heading into the year, but the Knights have been nothing short of fantastic on the boards all season long. Calvin had a +14 day in rebounding margin which puts their conference season average (six games) at +10.3. The next closest team is Albion at +5.7.

I’ve already compared Jordan Brink to Caleb Veldhouse, so here’s my next Calvin freshman comparison which is slightly crazier than the first. I told Zac during the game that I thought Tyler Kruis would eventually become Dan Aultman with better shooting range, better interior defense, but poorer skills on the offensive block. Which is to say, not really like Dan Aultman at all, but you know, kind of. Any sort of comparison to D.A. is automatically a good one.

Up Next: Albion. It's gonna be huge.

Trine Preview

Game	Seventeen
Who	Trine Thunder
Where	Van Noord Arena
When	Sat. - 3:30 PM
Web Video	Video
Web Audio	Audio
LiveStats	Stats
Tickets	$5, $3

When We Last Met
Trine was muddling around the bottom of the standings last year, but they had the Knights on the ropes at the Van Noord Arena in early February. Trine took a two point lead into half time, and even though Calvin quickly regained the advantage in the early goings of the second half, the Thuder didn't go away.

Trine trailed by only three points with 4:45 remaining in the game, but they wouldn't score another basket for over four minutes. Calvin used two baskets and five free throws to stretch the lead to 12, the biggest lead of the game. Trine finally put in a layup with under 30 seconds on the clock, and the game ended with a 73-63 Calvin victory.

Ian Jackson, Scott Rogers, and Wes Weir combined for 54 of Trine's 63 points.

Matchup

Matchup	Calvin	Trine	Advantage
Calvin eFG% vs. Trine DeFG%	0.514	0.529	Calvin
Calvin DeFG% vs. Trine eFG%	0.490	0.537	Trine
Calvin TOr vs. Trine DTOr	0.21	0.21	-
Calvin DTOr vs. Trine TOr	0.18	0.20	-
Calvin ORb% vs. Trine DRb%	0.367	0.672	Calvin
Calvin DRb% vs. Trine ORb%	0.697	0.295	Calvin
Calvin FTr vs. Trine DFTr	0.32	0.37	-
Calvin DFTr vs. Trine FTr	0.31	0.36	Calvin
Calvin OEff vs. Trine DEff	107.3	104.5	Calvin
Calvin DEff vs. Trine OEff	103.3	104.5	Trine

Trine has an offense that can score points in bunches, but their defense is apparently suspect.

They were 8-3 coming into league play, but their schedule was soft, and we're finding out that they're probably not a very good team. Their statistics in the table above can likewise be taken with a few grains of salt.

Trine is excellent at turning possessions into points; it could be another disappoiting day if the Knights get turnover happy.

Calvin would be well served to play a physical style defense on Saturday. Trine as a team shoots only 0.657 from the free throw stripe, and their leading scorer, Ian Jackson, shoots only 0.592. Second leading scorer, Scott Rogers is better, but he still is only hitting at a 0.676 clip. Make the shot difficult and don't worry about fouling. Don't necessarily go into 'hack-a-Shaq' mode (that would be going overboard), but there's no reason to take it easy on these guys.

Sure To Be Wrong Prediction
Calvin by 8
Need to win level: High
Expected to win level: High

Massey Prediction: Calvin 86, Trine 76 (85% chance of victory)

Trine's Glenn Alfieri Can't Destroy The System, and AQ Hoops Has A New Home

Glenn Alfieri hasn't been playing basketball at Trine University forever--it just seems that way. I remember perusing the Trine roster a year ago and being shocked to learn that he was just entering his senior year. Imagine my surprise when his name was included on the newly released 2010-2011 Thunder team roster late last week. The world was out to get me.

Because I tend to worry incessantly about such things and I needed relief from my torment, I tweeted my concern to Trine's official athletic Twitter account (@TrineAthletics). They had responded to me by the next morning:

I think he's been taken off the roster page now. Thanks for bringing this to our attention.

OK, so their response message wasn't anything special, but I like the maroon and gold blockquote and I wanted to use it. And it did confirm, to my delight, that Alfieri will not be playing for Trine this year. Eligibility rules do indeed apply to him as well.

My pestering must have broken their website, because ever since they responded to me the roster page has been replced by a "Coming soon!" note.

Elsewhere, WZZM13.com has a small article on the opening of Aquinas' new Sturrus Center. The article suggests that the newer facilities at Calvin (and Hope and Cornerstone) were a motivating factor for the upgrade. The new basketball gym appears to be fully lit. That's upgrade enough for me. Calvin will play at Aquinas for the Grand Rapids Sports Hall of Fame Tournament on November 26 and 27 (Thanksgiving weekend). Video below: