Previewing the 2021-22 MIAA Season

All eight MIAA men's basketball teams have completed their non-conference schedules and will move to conference play beginning on January 5.

Coming into the season, Trine was the heavy favorite after returning nearly everyone from the team that went 17-1 (5-0 MIAA) and won the conference tournament in the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season. That expectation has perhaps shifted after a non-conference season that saw Trine lose four games (and record a few uncomfortable wins against inferior competition).

Calvin has seemingly supplanted the Thunder as the league favorite as league play begins on Wednesday. Here's a look at where each team stands in the efficiency ratings I run for all of Division III men's basketball:

 

D3 Rank	Team	AdjEM	AdjO	AdjD
25	Calvin	22.4	113.8	91.5
72	Albion	13.8	104.7	90.9
70	Trine	14.0	101.4	87.5
77	Hope	12.6	108.5	95.9
167	Olivet	3.0	96.8	93.8
258	Kalamazoo	-3.7	101.3	105.0
267	Adrian	-4.5	97.2	101.7
297	Alma	-8.1	96.6	104.6

A quick explainer for those who haven't followed my ratings: Adjusted efficiency margin is the difference between a team's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings (the 'adjusted' means the calculations are iterated to account for quality of opponent). This is the number of points they'd be expected to outscore an average D3 team in 100 possessions. The offensive rating (AdjO) is how many points they'd be expected to score (per 100 possessions) and the defensive rating (AdjD) is how many points they'd be expected to give up (per 100 possessions).

So based on results* to date, we have something like four tiers of teams forming in the MIAA. Calvin is alone in tier 1 as a (fringe) Top-25 caliber team, Albion, Trine, and Hope are bunched up very tightly in tier 2, Olivet is in their own tier a bit above D3 average, and Kalamazoo, Adrian, and Alma are in the fourth tier a bit below average.

*I only calculate data from D3 vs. D3 games so nothing against D1, D1, or NAIA is included here.

The cool thing about these efficiency ratings is that we can use them to predict scores for individual matchups. If we add in a few points for home court advantage, we can predict the outcome of any game. So, for example, my computer favors Calvin over Albion in Wednesday's conference opener 74-72 and gives Calvin a 59% chance of winning the game. If I run these percentages for all 56 conference games, I get the following expected standings:

 

Team	Expected Wins	Expected Losses	Expected PF	Expected PA
Calvin	11.8	2.2	1148	957
Albion	9.5	4.5	1061	969
Trine	9.5	4.5	1000	910
Hope	9.1	4.9	1078	1001
Olivet	6.0	8.0	1060	1098
Kalamazoo	4.0	10.0	967	1076
Adrian	3.4	10.6	1065	1203
Alma	2.7	11.3	960	1124

Now, obviously, the standings won't end up exactly like this. Someone (Olivet) is going to win some games they're not supposed to win and we'll likely end up with more bunching towards the middle as teams get familiar with each other. But that's the way the computer sees the league shaping up before we play the games.

For Calvin in particular, they're going to have to make hay the first time through the league schedule as they have Hope, Trine, and Olivet at home and only Albion on the road of the other MIAA teams with a positive adjusted efficiency margin. They'll really need to be 5-2 (or preferably better) in those first seven games to feel really good about their chances to win the regular season conference title.

Looking ahead to the NCAA Tournament, the MIAA is most probably a one-bid league. It's not likely that the tournament runner up will have the resume required to receive an at-large bid. Most of the league is exiting non-conference play with a strong strength of schedule, but the league's overall non-conference record means those SOS numbers are going to decrease as we go.

I see Calvin, Hope, Albion, and Trine all staying a fair bit above the .500 strength-of-schedule Mendoza line that is the de facto requirement for NCAA Tournament selection, but not so far above that they'll be a strong contender unless they're also touting winning percentages in the .850 range (or so). That's... probably not going to happen. The best case for an at-large berth from the MIAA is for one of these teams to go 12-2 or 13-1 in conference play and then lose in the conference tournament final, and even that might not be enough to escape the bubble.

Turning our attention to opening night on Wednesday, it looks like we have a great slate of competitive games. Here's what my score predictor expects:

Away		Home		Home %	Away%	Pace	Line	Total
Olivet	86	Adrian	83	40%	60%	89	+3.0	169.5
Trine	66	Hope	68	60%	40%	69	-3.0	134.0
Kalamazoo	72	Alma	73	53%	47%	69	-1.0	145.0
Calvin	74	Albion	72	41%	59%	72	+2.5	146.0

All four games are 60%-40% or tighter and none of the expected score differentials are wider than one possession. The winners -- particularly of Trine-Hope and Calvin-Albion will have a leg up in the conference race. It should be a good night of basketball. 

Calvin Clinches Extra Basketball

No actual MIAA Tournament spots have been clinched for any team, but Calvin (and Trine, for that matter) appear to have guaranteed themselves at least one extra game this season.

With four MIAA games to go (at Kalamazoo, vs. Trine, at Olivet, and at Albion), the Knights find themselves up three games on the fourth/fifth place pairing of Adrian and Alma. The Bulldogs and Scots still have one final head-to-head meeting to play (Feb. 18), so the worst the Knights could do is tie in the standings with the loser of that game.

Should such a thing occur – and let’s be clear, Calvin isn’t going 0-4 down the stretch – and should the tie be made with Adrian, Calvin would be given the fourth seed free and clear (and Adrian eliminated) due to Calvin’s 2-0 head-to-head record. Should the tie be made with Alma, a one-game playoff would occur to determine who’s in as the fourth seed, and who’s out as number five.

The MIAA’s tiebreaking procedure has traditionally been:

• Head to head record
• Record vs. the #1 team
• Record vs. the #2 team
• … etc. etc.
• Record vs. the #7 team
• Record vs. the #8 team
• Coin flip

But when the MIAA went to a four-team tournament a few years back, they changed the tiebreaking procedure so that no team would be eliminated from the tournament due to anything other than head-to-head results. It might get a little funky if three teams are tied – maybe taking the total records against the tied teams – but Calvin’s 2-0 record versus Adrian, 1-1 versus Alma, and 2-0 versus Hope means they’re unlikely to lose out on any such shenanigans amongst tied teams.

So, if two teams are tied at 4th/5th, and they split the season series, the MIAA would allow for a tiebreaker game) probably played on Tuesday given the Semifinals are on Thursday. The winner would be given the fourth seed and the loser would be eliminated. Site selection would be determined using the standard tiebreaking criteria above.

All it’s going to take for Calvin to clinch an actual MIAA tournament spot is one more win (or one more loss for Alma), so we’re looking at a 90% chance of Calvin clinching a berth on Wednesday.

Magic numbers:

Fourth Seed: 1

Third Seed: 2

Second Seed: 3

Number One Seed: 4

MIAA Coaches Pick Calvin to Win League, Coach Vande Streek Addresses Injury Situation

The annual MIAA pre-season coaches poll was released today with your Calvin Knights sweeping the vote, picking up all seven possible first place votes. Coaches don't include their own team in the vote, so Coach Vande Streek cast his ballot in favor of Hope (who was the unanimous second-place votee).

Michael Applegate of the Holland Sentinel has recorded the vote totals, so check it out there because they'll probably soon disappear from the altogether awful MIAA website*.

*It's a sad state of affairs when one reasonably (and necessarily) directs readers away from your own website and to the Sentinel. Take note MIAA.

But more interesting than the poll -- which offers entertainment value but relatively little in the way of hard-hitting analysis -- is the quote that Applegate gets in his writeup from Vande Streek regarding his perception of the state of the team.

Depsite the vote of confidence, Vande Streek said on a league-wide conference call after the poll was released that his team is struggling with injuries in the preseason.

Daniel Stout, a 6-foot-9 center, is hurt as is guard T.J. Huizenga. Both are seniors.

"I look at our squad and I see a lot of holes," said Vande Streek, in his 19th season at Calvin. "That’s a far cry from a good basketball team at this point."

My understanding via (multiple) second-hand reports is that Dan Stout's injury is considered to be relatively minor. He may be limited early in the season (and miss the exhibition game), but until I hear otherwise, I'm betting on him seeing action in the season opener against Anderson. But injuries -- even those that are ostensibly minor -- are never fun and can have lingering effects, so we'll have to wait and see how it all plays out.

Calvin will certainly need him to come around eventually because the biggest hole on the squad is in the frontcourt where they lost Tyler Kruis, Mickey DeVries, and B.J. Van Loo from last year's team. Until such a time as Stout is 100% (and possibly beyond), we will likely be seeing some of Tyler Dykstra -- who started at the nominal small forward position last year -- at center.

This is the first I've heard of an injury to T.J. Huizenga. That's not great news. But, assuming it's not something that will keep him out for the year (or a chunk of the year), the Knights can weather that storm. If there's one spot on the floor where they're deep, it's the at the 2/3 wing. Jordan Daley, Jordan Brink, and Brad Visser could swallow 70-75 of the 80 available minutes at those spots. That might create a bigger hole behind Austin Parks at the point guard position (if Brink or Daley were to be used at all in that capacity), but they have some options there in sophomores Danny Leach and Nick Kronemeyer as well as freshman Tony Canonie.

UPDATE: The above quote -- or at least a similar one -- is framed a bit differently in a since-posted MLive piece.

"We have a versatile group of players this year," said Vande Streek.  "I think the biggest challenge will be mixing our newcomers in with our veterans because some of our newcomers will be a part of our rotation. That type of mix usually takes some time to jell. We've got a few holes to fill right now so it may take some time for us to become the team we would like to be."

All The Marbles

David Rietema has been really good and I haven't given him enough ink.

I'm sitting here eating my lunch and waiting for the selections/pairings to be announced and trying to figure out why I haven't written on here following the MIAA Championship. I guess I'm just too pumped up about it to sit down and put together any thoughts. I don't even remember details of the game except Calvin was trailing early, then took the lead, then took a big lead, then the buzzer. I guess that's good enough.

All the credit and a hearty "well done" go out to Coach Vande Streek, the seniors, and the whole team for what they've done this year -- right up to the latest performance. The regional rankings last Wednesday were pretty clear: win the MIAA automatic bid or you're probably not getting in the NCAA Tournament. So, with their backs against the wall, Calvin goes and beats Adrian by 27 and then Hope by 20. Yawn, end of story moving on.

Outside of a rough weekend in Wheaton ALL THE WAY BACK IN EARLY DECEMBER, they pretty much dominated their schedule. Sure, there was the close three point loss to Hope on the road, but that's not a big deal. They surely weren't playing their best that afternoon, but the result wasn't unexpected or out of the ordinary.

They've given us every reason to believe that they can compete on the national stage, and now they'll get their chance.

Efficiency Numbers for the MIAA Championship Game

Estimated number of possessions: 69
Offensive efficiency rating: 110.9
Defensive efficiency rating: 82.1

Hope isn't at maybe the traditional level that we've been accustomed to seeing the last seven years or so, but they're still pretty good. If the NCAA Tournament was the top 62 teams in terms of how good they really are, Hope would be in. And yet Calvin utterly dominated them here. That's not meant to be a knock on Hope, just a comment on how good Calvin actually is. The Knights proved without a doubt that they were the class of the MIAA this year.

Anyway, the selection show is about to start...

Do. Or Do Not. There Is No Try.

This is basically Calvin's entire team resting because they thought there was a game but there wasn't.

We're all going to watch on Matchup Monday but, should Calvin fail to win the MIAA's automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament, they're not going to hear their name called. I mean, we're going to want it, and hope for it, and strain to hear it, but once we've exhausted all 19 fingers and toes (that's normal, right?)  ticking off Pool C candidates we're going to come to terms with the hard truth.

Calvin is locked into an in-region winning percentage greater than .900, but they're not going to get an at-large big. We've seen the regional rankings and we know this is the case -- we don't believe it -- but we know it.

So heading into this MIAA Tournament Calvin needed to heed the advice of Master Yoda. You either DO win the AQ or you DO NOT. There's really no room for TRY.

I was nervous as heck heading into Thursday's semifinal with Adrian. They've given Calvin everything they had (and more) over the last three years and it's never been easy. It's true that they're a shell of the team that came into MIAA play undefeated and ranked #7 in the nation, but that defense has been there all season, and it's that defense that's given Calvin fits.

But the Knights didn't mess around with an overmatched Bulldog team. They pretty much took it right to them on both ends of the floor and, though they didn't put the game away in the first half, quickly stretch the lead to a comfortable number.

Adrian never really made a run at Calvin in the second half and it was clear with 10 minutes to play that Calvin was going to coast to a relatively easy victory. They were efficient, tough on defense, took care of the ball, rebounded well, didn't foul, and shared the ball. It was, quite frankly, a better played game than we could have asked for.

But that's not enough. It doesn't really matter that Calvin won by 27 and not three the result is the same. It only counts for one win which is one short of two, and two's the number of wins they need in this conference tournament in order to make the big dance. There's no time to rest or get cocky because it's still win-or-go-home and you-know-who is coming to town on Saturday.

Efficiency Numbers

They were good.

Estimated possessions: 58
Offensive Efficiency: 121.9 (points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 75.5 (points per 100 possessions)

100 is roughly average on the efficiency scale, and Calvin has performed around 110 on the offensive end and 85 on the defensive end for the season. Needless to say beating those numbers by 10 on each end is a very good thing.

Previewing The MIAA For Opening Weekend

Thursday, November 15 marks the official start for Division III basketball, but none of the MIAA teams will tip off their respective seasons until Friday. Everyone is in action on Friday except Kalamazoo who doesn’t begin their season until Friday the 24th for whatever reason.

Here’s a (brief) look at this weekend’s games:

Friday, November 16

Hope vs. College of Faith (at North Central (IL)), 3:30 PM

We (sports fans in general, not you, the reader, and me specifically) often make jokes with cupcake teams being referred to as “The Little Sisters of the Poor” (or whathaveyou), but this may really be one of those instances:

College of Faith is a Bible based, Christ-centered, online religious institution of higher education.

So, yeah, I guess it’s not a Catholic school for women, but it is an ONLINE Bible college that is, apparently, just beginning an athletics program. None of that sounds like “good at basketball” to me. They played a five-game football schedule this fall and were outscored 241-12 in four losses (I can’t find a score for their game against the Chattahoochee Tech club team, however).

Hope wins – the only question is by more or less than 100 – but I’m not sure the NCAA even “counts” this as a game because College of Faith will play most of their games against NJCAA teams (Junior College).

Adrian vs. Otterbein (at Wooster), 6:00 PM

THIS IS A REGIONAL GAME SO IT IS VERY IMPORTANT!

Otterbein wasn’t very good last year (9-17, 6-12 in the OAC), and I would like to call this game for Adrian, but after seeing their attrition-riddled roster that was posted this week, I’m not so sure. The MIAA coaches voted Adrian #2 in the preseason poll, but we’ve since found out their roster doesn’t include four would-be seniors, three would-be juniors (including All-MIAA Richaud Pack), and three would-be sophomores. They instead have 10 freshmen on their varsity roster which is a lot considering they had ZERO seniors a year ago and didn’t need to replace anyone (necessarily).

With Sean Gallant, Eric Lewis, Adam Meier, and Cody Barnes returning they can put together a pretty good starting lineup, but any sort of depth might not exist at this point. Everyone else on the roster is either (1) new or (2) was a non-scoring role player last seaon. They probably (hopefully) have one or two freshmen that can play pretty well, but not 10 of them.

Olivet at Central Michigan, 7:00 PM

LOL

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On Second Thought, Regional Realignment Likely Won’t Help Calvin (and the MIAA) Find Regional Games

Tuesday, in my post about the Elmhurst Bluejay Classic tournament pairings, I linked to the latest Hoopsville Podcast in which Dave McHugh alludes to impending regional alignment (which could go into effect as soon as 2013-14) (25:45 mark of the video/podcast). The apparent goals of the realignment process (as far as basketball goes) are (1) to even up the number of teams across the regions and (2) to have consistent regions between the Men’s and Women’s game.

I’m not overly concerned with goal number two (although I find it funny and mildly annoying that the ‘Midwest’ region is called ‘Central’ region in the Women’s game), but the first goal really piqued my interest: evening out the number of teams in each region.

The geography of the MIAA Schools (particularly Hope and Calvin) and the Division III regions make it difficult for to find close in-region games during the non-conference season (I’ve grumbled about this before). For Calvin, only six of the closest 12 non-conference schools would be considered in-region. The big reasons being that Michigan (and West Michigan in particular) is on the far western edge of both the Great Lakes geographic region and the NCAA Administrative region, and Lake Michigan makes it nearly impossible to travel any sort of distance to the West while staying within 200 (road) miles.

So when I first heard word of the (potential) upcoming realignment I got very excited. Maybe the NCAA’s new grouping of schools would allow Calvin to play in-region games against some nearby leagues such as the CCIW (of which annual Calvin opponents Wheaton and Carthage are members). If this were the case, it would be fairly easy for Calvin to meet the upcoming 75% in-region requirement without making any drastic changes to their typical schedule.

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The MIAA is a One Bid League Unless…

Hope loses in the MIAA Tournament
This one is obvious. There’s always a chance, that the wheels completely fall off for the Flying Dutchmen and they lose a bunch of games, but the chances of that happening are pretty much zero. Even if Hope somehow drops two games in the regular season (say, at Adrian and at Calvin) AND loses in the MIAA tournament, they would still have a fair-to-good chance at receiving one of the precious 19 Pool C bids for the NCAA Tournament. They’re as close to a lock as you can get with still a month to play.

Knocking off Hope in the conference tournament would be the ‘easiest’ way for the MIAA to get two bids. Not that it’s easy to beat Hope in Holland, but Calvin, Albion, and Trine (and any other non-Adrian candidate for tournament spots) don’t really have any other option. Pool C is off the table for these teams.

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Check Out MIAA Gameday

I've created a new tab at the top of the page called 'MIAA Gameday'. Here you'll find Live Stats and embedded video feeds (or links) for all the men's league games (that have streaming video available **cough** Hope **cough**). I'll try my darnedest to keep this updated every Wednesday and Saturday of the conference season.

Tonight in MIAA action:
Olivet at Albion -- 7:30 PM
Calvin at Adrian -- 8:00 PM
Trine at Kalamazoo -- 8:00 PM
Hope at Alma -- 8:00 PM

Click on the MIAA Gameday link for your one-stop shop for MIAA men's basketball action starting tonight at 7:30! Feel free to post any comments about how I could improve the Gameday experience for you at the bottom of this thread as well.

Want to stay up to date on the happenings at FFTMAG? Follow me on Twitter, “like” us on Facebook, and grab our RSS Feed. Need a ride to a game? Check out the Ride Board and post your needs.

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At Least The Olivet Comets Have One Good Player

The popular opinion was that the Olivet Comets were going to struggle this year. They were losing possibly the most dominant player the MIAA had seen in a decade, Michael McClary, along with solid contributors Nathan Jennings and Joe Post (and they had already lost Andre Evans in the middle of the season). To me, it seemed like they had little hope of finishing above seventh place in the league this year.

But, as we all know, things don’t always pan out the way we think they will.

But, in this case, it looks like it did. It’s exactly as we thought.

The mass departure of the above players left the Comets with a severe lack of talent. Only Junior Alvino Ashley (a transfer from Lansing Community College) has stepped up to play like a bona fide starter. Senior Jaren Edsall is playing well enough to contribute as a starter, but he’s being counted on to be a major factor (and he’s just not that).

Here’s a look at the Olivet Comets (as described by Player Efficiency Rating).

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Calvin, the MIAA, and Player Efficiency Ratings

I’m a sucker for one-number metrics. In basketball, I love to judge teams by RPI; in baseball I love to judge players by WAR. Fans often have reservations when it comes to describing the quality of play of an entire team or individual by a single number (surely you can’t measure and quantify every single contribution or intangible!), but, at the same time, we’re obsessed with (somewhat) ordered lists and rankings.

Top 25 polls, All-Americans, players of the week, regional rankings, MVP selections, all-tournament teams, and all-conference teams are part of our “normal” routines. Each of these require us to either measure and quantify (or simply ignore the “unquantifiable”). In selecting or debating these types of awards and rankings, we are forced to determine what, exactly, is important to us.

Single-number ranking systems don’t (or shouldn’t) claim to be perfect. Just like your favorite top-25 ranking will always have flaws, an RPI ranking system will have flaws. But unlike your favorite top-25 (or all-conference team or whatever), an RPI system (or player efficiency ratings, or whatever) will always apply the criteria evenly across the board. Again, not perfect, but consistent (that’s always the key!).

Anyhoo, going back to my love of WAR (wins above replacement) in baseball, I began to play around with similar numbers for basketball. I found John Hollinger’s NBA player efficiency rating (PER) a few years ago, and I’ve been toying with it to adapt it to the MIAA since. PER is a convoluted formula (so I won’t try to explain it here), but I think it does a pretty good job of organizing players in an expected way. For example, in each of the last two MIAA seasons, PER “correctly predicted” 10 of the 12 all-conference players (and it also did well in predicting first/second team).

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The Replacements



Yes Woody, Seniors will have to be replaced.


Zac and I (and our wives, and my child) drove out to Minneapolis for Memorial weekend, so we had lots of time to discuss sports (mostly Tigers baseball and Calvin hoops). We left Friday after work (with an expected 3:00 AM (EST) arrival time, so we needed to keep conversation going to ensure the driver stayed alert.

Anyway, one of the topics that came up was the outlook for the 2012 MIAA season. Who will be the favorite? Who’s going to fill out the top four? We couldn’t really decide, so we played a rousing game of “better or worse”. Our reactions for each teams was as follows:

Adrian: lots of young players – “better”.
Albion: losing two starters – perhaps “marginally worse”.
Alma: can’t get much worse – “even”.
Calvin: losing good players, but there’s a core of young talent – a biased “marginally better”.
Hope: losing Bowser, Dickerson, and Tanis – “worse”.
Kalamazoo: losing Ryan Clark – “worse”
Olivet: losing “everyone” – “much worse”
Trine: lots of young players – “better”

I’m not saying that this is accurate, but that’s what the gut told us without looking at rosters or playing time or scoring averages. We eventually figured the standings would look something like this:

1 – Calvin – The slight favorite, but not a lock.
2 – Hope – still a very good team. Could win the league or end up third.
3 – Adrian – Will be top three. Could challenge the top two, but they were “only” 7-7 last year.
4 – Albion – Because they’re always in the top four.
5 – Trine – They have enough young players to make a jump in the standings.
6 – Kalamazoo – Hard to replace Ryan Clark, but they won’t be at the bottom.
7 – Olivet – It’s going to be a long year. Losing a ton of talent.
8 – Alma – Still bad.

But I wanted to get a real look at who’s staying, and who’s leaving to get a better of idea of how difficult it will actually be for each team to find replacements. So I crunched some numbers.

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How Much TEAM Skill is There in FG PCT Defense?

One thing I like about the off season is it allows me more time to do research posts. This is one such post.

I've been wanting to do research on field goal shooting and field goal defense regression for Calvin, and the MIAA in general, but I just didn’t really have the required know how to get started. Until Tom Tango (blogger, co-author of “The Book”, and the reason why I love advanced stats) came out with this post on his blog. He usually sticks to baseball related topics, with some hockey posts sprinkled in (he’s Canadian, so I’ll give him a pass on the hockey love), but recently he’s been venturing into the realm of basketball.

In the post I lined to, he looks at how much skill is involved in free throw shooting percentages for NBA players. We obviously know that free throw percentage is related to skill, but what proportion of a players percentage is related to skill, and how much is related to statistical noise?

As you could probably guess, there’s a lot of skill involved in shooting free throws, so we’d rarely need to regress an NBA player’s career FT percentage (although, to be precise, you ALWAYS need to regress, but you’d gain very little benefit in this application). I’d encourage you to check out the blog post.

Anyhoo, I’m going to mirror Tom’s method to determine how much skill there is (at the team level) in defensive field goal percentage for the MIAA. Actually, I’m going to do this for Field Goal Percent Defense, Three Point Field Goal Percent Defense, Two Point Field Goal Percent Defense, and Effective Field Goal Percent Defense. If you don't like math, you can skip the boring part.


The Boring Part
I was able to glean statistical data for the past 14 seasons (1998-2011) from the MIAA website; that gives us 108 team seasons worth of data. It’s not as much as I would like, but it’s what we have.

On average, each team faced 1531 field goal attempts (of which 495 were three point attempts). They gave up (on average) 0.440 percent in total (0.351 from three point, 0.497 eFG%, and 0.482 from two point). The observed standard deviation for the team defenses was 0.027 (0.026 for three pointers, 0.028 for eFG%, and 0.034 for two point). Don't get bogged down will all of the numbers just yet, I'll provide a table later on.

Now first we need to determine if the skill exists. To do that, we’ll need to compute the spread in percentages that we’d expect to find from random variation alone. Tom shows us how to do it with this calculation:

sqrt(pct*(1-pct)/n)

Where pct is the average percentage, and n is the average number of attempts.

This calculation gives us expected spreads of: 0.013 (total field goal percentage), 0.022 (three point), 0.013 (eFG%), and 0.016 (two point). In each case, we observe a larger spread than we'd expect due to random variation, so it is clear that there is a difference in defensive talent among the MIAA teams (no duh, right?).

But I want to know how much of a difference there is. I want to know how much we need to regress our observed percentages in order to get a better understanding of the actual talent of a particular team.

We keep going. We have the observed spread in percentages, we calculated the expected spread due to randomness, so now we can calculate the spread in actual (true) talent using the equation:

sd(obs)^2 = sd(true)^2 + sd(random)^2

This gives us a spread in true talent of 0.024 (FG%), 0.014 (three point), 0.025 (eFG%), and 0.030 (two point).

Finally, we can calculate the r-squared values for our sets of data. R-squared tells us what percentage of the variation is due to actual talent given our average number of shots faced. We find this with the following calculation:

r^2 = sd(true)^2 / sd(obs)^2

And from the r-squared numbers, we can compute the number of attempts a team needs to face to reach the 50-50 regression point. This is the point at which 50% of the variation is explained by team skill level.

[(1 – rsquared)/rsquared] / n

For standard field goal percentage, this point is 416 attempts, for three pointers, it’s 1105 attempts, for effective field goal percentage, it’s 399 attempts, and for two pointers, it’s 276 attempts.

Here’s the chart of all of the numbers, as promised.

	FG	3FG	eFG	2FG
Average attempts faced per year	1531	494	1531	1036
Average PCT allowed	0.440	0.351	0.497	0.482
Observed Std. Deviation	0.0274	0.0258	0.0281	0.0339
Random Std. Deviation	0.0127	0.0215	0.0128	0.0155
True Std. Deviation	0.0243	0.0144	0.0250	0.0301
r-squared	0.79	0.31	0.79	0.79
50% Regression (# of attempts)	416	1105	399	276

That bottom line is the key to this whole post. The regression equation (what percentage you need to regress for any number of shots faced) is:

50% Mark / (50% Mark + Attempts)

For example, if a team faced 130 shots after the first two games (giving up a 0.500 FG%), and you wanted to figure out their expected team talent level, you'd figure:

416 / (416 + 130) = 0.76

You would need to regress 76% toward the league average, or:

0.76 x 0.440 + 0.24 x 0.500 = 0.454

So, even though the team had given up 0.500 from the floor (total FG%), you'd need to expect that them to be a 0.454 defense going forward.

The most interesting thing that I found through all of this is that in a typical season, you'd need to regress a defense's FG%, eFG%, and 2-pt% allowed about 21% toward the league average, but you'd need to regress their three point percentage allowed about 69% toward the league average.

Application
So, what’s a practical application of this?

Well, let’s say a certain MIAA team, I dunno, Hope, was observed to perform much better in defending the three point shot in the second half of games than they were in the first half. Through eight games, we’ll suppose the following splits:

1st Half: 40-65 (0.615)
2nd Half: 17-60 (0.283)

They were observed to be better defensively in the second half by a margin of 0.332, but how much of that should we attribute to the team actually playing better on defense, and how much should we attribute to random variation?

Using our regression equation above, we find that after 60 or 65 shots, you need to regress 94.5% of the way toward league average. Doing that, we come up with the following regressed percentages. This is the best statistical estimate of the team’s defensive efforts in those two halves.

1st Half: 0.365
2nd Half: 0.347

So really, as best as we can tell from the stats, 0.314 of the difference is explained by random variation, and 0.018 is explained by a difference in skill or effort.

This isn't to say that 0.018 isn't significant. It's equal to the difference between the best (Albion) and worst (Calvin) three point defenses in 2011 (using the regressed stats, see below).

2011 Stats
Here's a look at the various defensive stats from the 2010-2011 season. The observed stats are shown first, and their regressed counterparts are shown second.

Team	FG%	3P%	eFG%	2P%	r-FG%	r-3P%	r-eFG%	r-2P%
Adrian	0.400	0.341	0.455	0.428	0.410	0.348	0.465	0.442
Calvin	0.413	0.362	0.473	0.439	0.418	0.355	0.478	0.447
Kalamazoo	0.432	0.321	0.476	0.475	0.434	0.343	0.481	0.476
Olivet	0.435	0.346	0.480	0.467	0.436	0.350	0.484	0.470
Albion	0.437	0.302	0.485	0.500	0.438	0.337	0.488	0.496
Trine	0.442	0.351	0.503	0.490	0.442	0.351	0.501	0.488
Hope	0.458	0.362	0.509	0.496	0.454	0.354	0.507	0.493
Alma	0.463	0.359	0.514	0.504	0.458	0.353	0.510	0.500

MIAA Final Four Preview

MIAA	Final Four
Where	Holland, MI
When	Friday and Saturday
Video	None
Audio	Calvin, Hope
LiveStats	Stats
Directions	Google Maps

The MIAA's final weekend is here! At least one team will advance to the NCAA tournament, and at least two teams will see their season end in Holland.

The good news for Calvin fans is that the Knights get to play the only team of the four that they swept during the regular season. That's not to say that getting to Saturday night will be a cakewalk, Albion was third for a reason, but it does comfort me.

I'm not expecting that I'll have time to 'preview' the championship game (let's operate under the assumption that Calvin beats Albion for the moment), so consider this your preview post for the whole weekend. You can think of it like a bonus post if you wish, but don't worry, you don't have to pay me any extra.

Let's jump to the graph! (click on it for a larger version)

Note that the graph title is a play on words. I'm hilarious.

In case we have newbies on the blog (or oldbies that want more explanation), here's a rundown of what these stats mean.

These are what are referred to as the four factors. They are supposedly the four stats that are most indicative of winning and losing. They are (in priority order) effective field goal percentage (eFG%), turnover rate (TOr), rebounding percentage (Rb%), and free throw rate (FTr). The first four sets of bars are for each team's offense and the second four are from the perspective of the defenses.

Effective field goal percentage is just like field goal percentage, but it adjusts numbers to account for the additional point of a made three pointer. Because when it comes to scoring points, 2-6 from three point range is worth the same as 3-6 from two. Average offenses are in the 0.490-0.500 eFG% range.

Turnover rate is the percentage of team possessions that end in a turnover. This one's pretty simple and obvious. Good offenses turn the ball over infrequently (you want to be less than 20%), and good defenses force extra turnovers (you'd like to force more than 20%).

Rebounding percentage is also easy to grasp. It's the percentage of available rebounds that a team collects on each end of the court. Average teams get about 68% of the rebounds on defense and 32% on offense.

Lastly, we have free throw rate. Getting to the free throw line can be an underrated skill. As long as you're shooing better than 60% from the stripe, you're helping your team's offensive efficiency rating. Free throw rate just tells us how many free throws a team shoots for every field goal attempt. Extra shots usually mean extra points. Average is about 0.36. A good offense supplements their point total with trips to the line, but a solid defense can lock you down without fouling.

From the graph, it looks like Calvin has two distinct advantages over the other three teams. They rebound the ball extremely well on the offensive end, and they don't send opponents to the free throw line very often.

Comparatively, Calvin's biggest weakness with respect to Albion, Hope, and Adrian is that they don't force many turnovers on defense. They do, however, look very good in the other three defensive categories.

Probable Starters
Here's a brief glance at the stats of the expected starters for the four teams.

Calvin	%Shots	PPWS	eFG%	TO%	Rb%	FTr	Ar	Blk%
Rodts	0.21	1.23	0.584	0.14	0.10	0.30	0.10	0.02
Snikkers	0.31	1.11	0.503	0.21	0.14	0.45	0.22	0.02
Schuster	0.21	1.13	0.543	0.07	0.12	0.19	0.07	0.16
Powell	0.25	0.86	0.414	0.16	0.05	0.12	0.24	0.01
Salo	0.12	1.23	0.585	0.17	0.07	0.23	0.13	0.00
Calvin	-	1.10	0.507	0.21	0.55	0.35	0.52	0.24

Albion	%Shots	PPWS	eFG%	TO%	Rb%	FTr	Ar	Blk%
Cruse	0.28	1.02	0.469	0.17	0.12	0.74	0.18	0.08
Kazen	0.21	1.08	0.495	0.23	0.12	0.45	0.12	0.00
Siebert	0.23	1.01	0.468	0.10	0.11	0.26	0.07	0.01
Hutton	0.32	1.12	0.504	0.14	0.06	0.34	0.15	0.00
Wash	0.15	1.08	0.505	0.28	0.05	0.21	0.18	0.00
Albion	-	1.04	0.471	0.21	0.53	0.45	0.48	0.10

Hope	%Shots	PPWS	eFG%	TO%	Rb%	FTr	Ar	Blk%
Bowser	0.29	1.18	0.561	0.12	0.09	0.35	0.10	0.03
Krombeen	0.22	1.11	0.520	0.17	0.10	0.27	0.30	0.03
Tanis	0.21	1.02	0.459	0.10	0.04	0.32	0.09	0.01
Snuggerud	0.24	1.16	0.543	0.14	0.15	0.29	0.11	0.11
Dickerson	0.16	1.19	0.602	0.21	0.13	0.21	0.06	0.07
Hope	-	1.14	0.535	0.18	0.52	0.36	0.55	0.19

Adrian	%Shots	PPWS	eFG%	TO%	Rb%	FTr	Ar	Blk%
Collins	0.14	0.88	0.391	0.26	0.06	0.41	0.37	0.00
Gallant	0.20	1.06	0.510	0.18	0.13	0.31	0.13	0.08
Reed	0.24	1.03	0.456	0.10	0.05	0.29	0.10	0.00
Mason	0.18	0.96	0.484	0.20	0.14	0.31	0.03	0.14
Mosley	0.30	1.11	0.479	0.14	0.12	0.53	0.12	0.04
Adrian	-	1.00	0.465	0.22	0.52	0.33	0.57	0.27

The team stats at the bottom of each chart are for the team as a whole, not just the starters. Some of these stats are the same as above, but here's a quick explanation of the new ones. Bold numbers represent the high number in each category out of the starters (just thought it would be fun).

%Shots - The percentage of the team's shots a player takes while he's on the floor.
PPWS - Points per weighted shot. How many points a player records per attempt to score.
Ar - Assist rate. The percentage of made field goals that a player assists on while he's in the game.
Blk% - The percentage of opponents' two-point shot attempts that a player blocks while he's in the game.

I'm really geeked for these games. I think we'll have two quality semifinal contests on our hands. I was fairly nervous before Wednesday's game, but now I'm just feeling excited. Not getting to the weekend would have been disappointing, but we're here now. There's an opportunity to get this thing done.

Sure To Be Wrong Prediction
Calvin over Albion by 5
Hope over Adrian by 7

Up Next:
The NCAA Tournament. If ya win.

I've been missing the tournament the last couple of years. Best road trips ever. It's what got me hooked in the first place. Just win.

I'm going to request some tentative vacation from work for next Friday just in case. Just in case.

Two To Go

Calvin 72, Trine 65 (box)

I said I wasn't feeling comfortable about this game in the preview post, and the Knights didn't do anything to calm my nerves in the first 15 minutes of the game.

Trine jumped out to an early 7-0 lead, held off a Calvin rally, and eventually stretched the lead to 31-20.

There was five minutes left in the first half, and I felt like I needed to take a walk. Or take up smoking.

But my mother vowed years ago that she would cut off my fingers if I smoked, so that was out. And I didn't really want to crawl over people to reach the aisle, so I decided to stick it out until half time. What I did do was lean over and tell my buddy that Calvin needed to go on a 20-0 run.

That didn't happen.

But they did mount a 16-0 run over the final five minutes of the half to take a five point lead into the locker room. Good enough for me. Walk canceled.

The second half was much more satisfactory. Trine didn't go away quietly, but Calvin never relinquished the lead. By the time the final few minutes were ticking down, the game was really in hand.

To Holland!

Stats

Player	%Min	%Shots	eFG%	PPWS	FTr	Ar	TO%	Rb%
Powell	0.53	0.34	0.222	0.44	0.00	0.59	0.10	0.08
Salo	0.68	0.12	1.125	2.25	0.00	0.00	0.33	0.02
Rodts	0.83	0.24	0.500	1.09	0.40	0.16	0.25	0.15
Snikkers	0.55	0.21	0.917	1.67	1.67	0.33	0.22	0.08
Schuster	0.63	0.22	0.143	0.29	0.00	0.00	0.13	0.09
Brink	0.50	0.24	0.667	1.58	1.00	0.29	0.18	0.14
Haverdink	0.35	0.11	0.750	1.86	3.00	0.33	0.29	0.12
Schnyders	0.33	0.18	0.333	0.67	0.00	0.00	0.40	0.00
Kruis	0.48	0.17	0.000	0.20	0.50	0.00	0.17	0.24
DeYoung	0.15	0.00	0.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.09
Total	1.00	1.00	0.480	1.12	0.55	0.65	0.29	0.58

Another solid game on the boards. The Knights came into the game ranked #18 in D3 in rebounding margin at +7.4 per game. They were +11 tonight. A big part of the advantage came on the offensive end where they grabbed 15 of 32 available rebounds. 46.9% on the offensive end is fantastic (32% is about average). That goes a long way toward scratching out extra points.

It was a tough shooting night for Schuster, Powell, and to some extent Danny Rodts, but Tom Snikkers had a really nice game, and Jordan Brink and Brian Haverdink chipped in a combined 23 points off of the bench.

I'll give Havs the unsung hero award for the game. I really thought he'd have a nice year on the offensive end, but he's struggled more often than not. He really fought for it tonight, and although he was only 1-2 from the floor (both were three point attempts), he drew a few fouls and went 6-6 from the free throw line.

The box score for the game contains a special note:

Calvin hits 15 game pleateau for 27th straight season.

Is that some sort of backhanded compliment to this years' team?

Up Next
Versus Albion at Hope on Friday.

Hope beat Alma handily (but not by 50), so the MIAA semifinals and finals will be held in Holland. Calvin faces off against #3 Albion in the 6:00 PM game, and #1 Hope hosts #5 Adrian at 8:15ish.

Calvin has beaten Albion twice this year, but Friday's game will be nothing like a picnic in the park. Winner gets to face the Hope/Adrian winner on Saturday to battle for the MIAA's automatic NCAA qualifier.

Two wins, and we're in.

MIAA Quarterfinals Preview

MIAA	Quarterfinals
Who	Trine Thunder
Where	Van Noord Arena
When	Wednesday -- 7:30 PM
Web Video	Video
Web Audio	Audio
LiveStats	Stats
Tickets	$7, $3

When We Last Met
It wasn't comfortable, but Calvin came away with a 71-67 victory a week ago.

The Knights shot just 37.7% (eFG%) for the game from the floor, but they shredded Trine on the boards, 54-31, and they got to the free throw line 27 times (making 22, 81.5%). They did the little things.

Matchup
This will be the third meeting between these two teams this season. Both games were won by the Knights, but the margins of victory (4 and 6) leave little reason for comfort.

Here's what we know.

Calvin can destroy Trine on the boards. In the two previous meetings combined, Calvin has out rebounded Trine by a margin of 102-65. That's an average margin of over 18 rebounds per contest; that's huge! It's probably Calvin's biggest edge, so they'll have to continue to exploit it.

These two teams don't shoot well against each other. A quick glance at the stats and you'd think that these meeting would turn into an all-star game type scorefest, but that hasn't been the case at all.

Here's a look at both teams' effective field goal percentages and offensive efficiency ratings for the season as a whole, and for the games involving each other.

Calvin	eFG%	OEff
Totals	0.508	107.9
Versus Trine	0.400	98.6

Trine	eFG%	OEff
Totals	0.514	100.8
Versus Calvin	0.424	91.8

And it's not like Calvin or Trine have the types of defenses that would be expected to stifle the opponent like this. Maybe there's something in the matchup that's causing the offensive woes, but maybe it's just a case of a couple of bad games.

The good news is that Calvin's capable of shooting much better, but then again, so is Trine.

Graphs

The offenses look similar for the most part, with Trine holding slight advantages in three categories. But Calvin shows a huge advantage in the rebounding category, and that has played a large part in the two previous wins.

I’m not feeling particularly comfortable with this matchup. Not nearly as comfortable as I would usually be in a #2-#7 matchup, but Calvin should win this game. Calvin will win this game. You can quote me on that.

Sure To Be Wrong Prediction:
Calvin by 8
Need To Win Level: Very High
Expected To Win Level: High
Massey Prediction: Calvin 82, Trine 73 (81% chance of victory).

Predicting the MIAA Race

I like your pin. I was wondering that myself.

This season is going by way too fast. We're on the cusp of conference play, but how's it going to end?

Here's what the MIAA coaches thought before the season began:

Rank	Team	Points
1	Hope	9 (6)
2	Calvin	14 (2)
3	Olivet	17
4	Adrian	28
5	Albion	30
6	Kalamazoo	38
6	Trine	38
8	Alma	49

But things have changed since then.

Hope has lost senior guard, and All-America candidate, Peter Bunn for the season due to injury, but maybe they had enough breathing room already built in. Trine has had a strong showing in the non-conference, but they've played a relatively weak schedule. Olivet has had flashes of brilliance, but they've been plagued by inconsistency.

Here's how the MIAA's teams have performed in the non-conference (sorted by W-L percentage):

Team	W	L	PCT
Trine	8	3	0.727
Hope	7	4	0.636
Albion	6	5	0.545
Adrian	5	5	0.500
Calvin	5	6	0.455
Olivet	5	6	0.455
Alma	4	6	0.400
Kalamazoo	3	8	0.273

Kenneth Massey takes the season's results to date, and gives each team an expected win-loss total for their remaining games based on his ranking system. Here's how he predicts the MIAA teams to fare in conference play:

Team	E[W]	E[L]	PCT
Hope	11.38	2.62	0.813
Calvin	10.01	3.99	0.715
Olivet	9.11	4.89	0.651
Albion	7.37	6.63	0.526
Trine	6.71	7.29	0.479
Adrian	5.34	8.66	0.381
Kalamazoo	3.79	10.21	0.271
Alma	2.29	11.71	0.164

It's actually not that far off of the coaches poll. Adrian is the big loser here. They've "fallen" from fourth (in the coaches poll) to sixth in the Massey rankings, and while that's only a couple of spots, sixth place in the MIAA usually means you're not a very good team. Sadly, this conference is not know for depth. Just the opposite, actually.

Trine moves up a little bit, but not as much as we might have expected given their win-loss record to date. They have eight wins, but none jump off of the page. Their best win might be the game they played at 6-5 North Park (CCIW). Their three losses (Franklin, DePauw, and Lake Forest) aren't against anyone spectacular either. Maybe they'll beat out Albion for fourth, but I don't see them challenging for a top three spot. Yet.

I think the rest of Massey's list looks like we might expect. Hope is still a pretty heavy favorite, Calvin and Olivet could have a nice fight for second, Trine and Albion will battle for fourth, Adrian's probably comfortably in sixth, and Kalamazoo and Alma will try to stay out of the basement. Alma will probably end up there.

We'll know for sure in seven weeks.