Wednesday, February 23, 2011

MIAA Quarterfinals Preview

MIAAQuarterfinals
WhoTrine Thunder
WhereVan Noord Arena
WhenWednesday -- 7:30 PM
Web VideoVideo
Web AudioAudio
LiveStatsStats
Tickets$7, $3





When We Last Met
It wasn't comfortable, but Calvin came away with a 71-67 victory a week ago.

The Knights shot just 37.7% (eFG%) for the game from the floor, but they shredded Trine on the boards, 54-31, and they got to the free throw line 27 times (making 22, 81.5%). They did the little things.

Matchup
This will be the third meeting between these two teams this season. Both games were won by the Knights, but the margins of victory (4 and 6) leave little reason for comfort.

Here's what we know.

Calvin can destroy Trine on the boards. In the two previous meetings combined, Calvin has out rebounded Trine by a margin of 102-65. That's an average margin of over 18 rebounds per contest; that's huge! It's probably Calvin's biggest edge, so they'll have to continue to exploit it.

These two teams don't shoot well against each other. A quick glance at the stats and you'd think that these meeting would turn into an all-star game type scorefest, but that hasn't been the case at all.

Here's a look at both teams' effective field goal percentages and offensive efficiency ratings for the season as a whole, and for the games involving each other.

CalvineFG%OEff
Totals0.508107.9
Versus Trine0.40098.6

TrineeFG%OEff
Totals0.514100.8
Versus Calvin0.42491.8

And it's not like Calvin or Trine have the types of defenses that would be expected to stifle the opponent like this. Maybe there's something in the matchup that's causing the offensive woes, but maybe it's just a case of a couple of bad games.

The good news is that Calvin's capable of shooting much better, but then again, so is Trine.

Graphs


The offenses look similar for the most part, with Trine holding slight advantages in three categories. But Calvin shows a huge advantage in the rebounding category, and that has played a large part in the two previous wins.


I’m not feeling particularly comfortable with this matchup. Not nearly as comfortable as I would usually be in a #2-#7 matchup, but Calvin should win this game. Calvin will win this game. You can quote me on that.

Sure To Be Wrong Prediction:
Calvin by 8

Need To Win Level: Very High
Expected To Win Level: High
Massey Prediction: Calvin 82, Trine 73 (81% chance of victory).

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