Previewing the 2021-22 MIAA Season

All eight MIAA men's basketball teams have completed their non-conference schedules and will move to conference play beginning on January 5.

Coming into the season, Trine was the heavy favorite after returning nearly everyone from the team that went 17-1 (5-0 MIAA) and won the conference tournament in the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season. That expectation has perhaps shifted after a non-conference season that saw Trine lose four games (and record a few uncomfortable wins against inferior competition).

Calvin has seemingly supplanted the Thunder as the league favorite as league play begins on Wednesday. Here's a look at where each team stands in the efficiency ratings I run for all of Division III men's basketball:

 

D3 Rank	Team	AdjEM	AdjO	AdjD
25	Calvin	22.4	113.8	91.5
72	Albion	13.8	104.7	90.9
70	Trine	14.0	101.4	87.5
77	Hope	12.6	108.5	95.9
167	Olivet	3.0	96.8	93.8
258	Kalamazoo	-3.7	101.3	105.0
267	Adrian	-4.5	97.2	101.7
297	Alma	-8.1	96.6	104.6

A quick explainer for those who haven't followed my ratings: Adjusted efficiency margin is the difference between a team's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings (the 'adjusted' means the calculations are iterated to account for quality of opponent). This is the number of points they'd be expected to outscore an average D3 team in 100 possessions. The offensive rating (AdjO) is how many points they'd be expected to score (per 100 possessions) and the defensive rating (AdjD) is how many points they'd be expected to give up (per 100 possessions).

So based on results* to date, we have something like four tiers of teams forming in the MIAA. Calvin is alone in tier 1 as a (fringe) Top-25 caliber team, Albion, Trine, and Hope are bunched up very tightly in tier 2, Olivet is in their own tier a bit above D3 average, and Kalamazoo, Adrian, and Alma are in the fourth tier a bit below average.

*I only calculate data from D3 vs. D3 games so nothing against D1, D1, or NAIA is included here.

The cool thing about these efficiency ratings is that we can use them to predict scores for individual matchups. If we add in a few points for home court advantage, we can predict the outcome of any game. So, for example, my computer favors Calvin over Albion in Wednesday's conference opener 74-72 and gives Calvin a 59% chance of winning the game. If I run these percentages for all 56 conference games, I get the following expected standings:

 

Team	Expected Wins	Expected Losses	Expected PF	Expected PA
Calvin	11.8	2.2	1148	957
Albion	9.5	4.5	1061	969
Trine	9.5	4.5	1000	910
Hope	9.1	4.9	1078	1001
Olivet	6.0	8.0	1060	1098
Kalamazoo	4.0	10.0	967	1076
Adrian	3.4	10.6	1065	1203
Alma	2.7	11.3	960	1124

Now, obviously, the standings won't end up exactly like this. Someone (Olivet) is going to win some games they're not supposed to win and we'll likely end up with more bunching towards the middle as teams get familiar with each other. But that's the way the computer sees the league shaping up before we play the games.

For Calvin in particular, they're going to have to make hay the first time through the league schedule as they have Hope, Trine, and Olivet at home and only Albion on the road of the other MIAA teams with a positive adjusted efficiency margin. They'll really need to be 5-2 (or preferably better) in those first seven games to feel really good about their chances to win the regular season conference title.

Looking ahead to the NCAA Tournament, the MIAA is most probably a one-bid league. It's not likely that the tournament runner up will have the resume required to receive an at-large bid. Most of the league is exiting non-conference play with a strong strength of schedule, but the league's overall non-conference record means those SOS numbers are going to decrease as we go.

I see Calvin, Hope, Albion, and Trine all staying a fair bit above the .500 strength-of-schedule Mendoza line that is the de facto requirement for NCAA Tournament selection, but not so far above that they'll be a strong contender unless they're also touting winning percentages in the .850 range (or so). That's... probably not going to happen. The best case for an at-large berth from the MIAA is for one of these teams to go 12-2 or 13-1 in conference play and then lose in the conference tournament final, and even that might not be enough to escape the bubble.

Turning our attention to opening night on Wednesday, it looks like we have a great slate of competitive games. Here's what my score predictor expects:

Away		Home		Home %	Away%	Pace	Line	Total
Olivet	86	Adrian	83	40%	60%	89	+3.0	169.5
Trine	66	Hope	68	60%	40%	69	-3.0	134.0
Kalamazoo	72	Alma	73	53%	47%	69	-1.0	145.0
Calvin	74	Albion	72	41%	59%	72	+2.5	146.0

All four games are 60%-40% or tighter and none of the expected score differentials are wider than one possession. The winners -- particularly of Trine-Hope and Calvin-Albion will have a leg up in the conference race. It should be a good night of basketball. 

Calvin 61, Adrian 49

Box Score
Video Replay
Calvin Recap

Games against Mark White's Adrian squads are never fun or pretty. They're going to play physical in-your-grill defense, and the only thing you can do is weather the storm.

Adrian's an interesting team because they're probably not as bad as their (now) 4-10 record looks. I Tweeted as much before the game. They're not a great team like maybe the Adrian teams from four years ago were, but they've played a difficult schedule making the record deceptive. Their defense rates, according to my efficiency rankings, as a little bit better than average, and they play at a pace that's a little bit slower than average. Combine those two factors and you get games that are going to end up with tighter scoring margins than you might expect.

Still, it's a game Calvin should win, and they ended up taking care of business last night.

It was clear from the get-go that Adrian's entire game plan revolved around denying Jordan Brink open looks. Or even any open space to speak of. They hedged hard on the high ball screens and were quick to double when Brink tried to dribble around the perimeter. This isn't the first -- nor, I'd venture, the last -- time we've seen this strategy this year. Wheaton employed a similar strategy to some effect, but I don't think any opponent has been as committed as Adrian was last night.

With as much doubling as Adrian did last night you'd think Calvin would have been able to find an open man either rolling in the paint or on a wing. That did happen on several occasions -- Daley, Denney, Parks and Dykstra all knocked down threes without defenders in their face -- but it felt like there should have been more opportunities to take advantage of. Part of the explanation is that Adrian's simply good at cutting off passing lanes, but too often the Calvin guards tried to dribble around or through pressure instead of anticipating it and looking to dish the ball.

I think you can see that in the turnover numbers for the guard and wing players: 10 combined between Parks, Daley, Brink, and Canonie.

Still, Calvin ended the day right about where they wanted to be because the offense ended up doing enough, and the defense took care of business against a weaker offense. Something that hasn't really been done this year.

Adrian kept it close early by hitting some threes -- they were 5-9 at the half -- but they weren't getting anything else going. The Knights held the Bulldogs to just 40% shooting on their two-point attempts for the game and grabbed 88% of the available rebounds on defense. The lack of second-chance opportunities and a cold second-half from the arc (1-8) made it impossible for the Bulldogs to get a bucket when they needed it down the stretch.

A layup by Hope transfer Jordan Denham tied the game at 45-45 with 7:30 to play in the game, but Adrian would collect just two more field goals (four points total) the rest of the way. Calvin, on the other hand, went 4-6 from the field and 7-9 from the line to finish the game with a tidy 16-4 run.

Calvin ended the game with a raw defensive efficiency rating of 82. That makes only three above-average defensive performances on the season for the Knights (vs. Manchester, at Hope, at Adrian). The good news is that makes two in-a-row.

I have the Calvin offense rated #16 in all of Division III, but the below average defense has turned what could be a sure-fire Top 25 team into a fringe tournament team. But the NCAA Tournament can't be on the mind right now. Non-conference losses makes a Pool C bid look like a reach, so the Knights have to take things one game at a time in MIAA play. Winning the league is a must, and there are plenty of trap games left.

Next up: Kalamazoo

Do. Or Do Not. There Is No Try.

This is basically Calvin's entire team resting because they thought there was a game but there wasn't.

We're all going to watch on Matchup Monday but, should Calvin fail to win the MIAA's automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament, they're not going to hear their name called. I mean, we're going to want it, and hope for it, and strain to hear it, but once we've exhausted all 19 fingers and toes (that's normal, right?)  ticking off Pool C candidates we're going to come to terms with the hard truth.

Calvin is locked into an in-region winning percentage greater than .900, but they're not going to get an at-large big. We've seen the regional rankings and we know this is the case -- we don't believe it -- but we know it.

So heading into this MIAA Tournament Calvin needed to heed the advice of Master Yoda. You either DO win the AQ or you DO NOT. There's really no room for TRY.

I was nervous as heck heading into Thursday's semifinal with Adrian. They've given Calvin everything they had (and more) over the last three years and it's never been easy. It's true that they're a shell of the team that came into MIAA play undefeated and ranked #7 in the nation, but that defense has been there all season, and it's that defense that's given Calvin fits.

But the Knights didn't mess around with an overmatched Bulldog team. They pretty much took it right to them on both ends of the floor and, though they didn't put the game away in the first half, quickly stretch the lead to a comfortable number.

Adrian never really made a run at Calvin in the second half and it was clear with 10 minutes to play that Calvin was going to coast to a relatively easy victory. They were efficient, tough on defense, took care of the ball, rebounded well, didn't foul, and shared the ball. It was, quite frankly, a better played game than we could have asked for.

But that's not enough. It doesn't really matter that Calvin won by 27 and not three the result is the same. It only counts for one win which is one short of two, and two's the number of wins they need in this conference tournament in order to make the big dance. There's no time to rest or get cocky because it's still win-or-go-home and you-know-who is coming to town on Saturday.

Efficiency Numbers

They were good.

Estimated possessions: 58
Offensive Efficiency: 121.9 (points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 75.5 (points per 100 possessions)

100 is roughly average on the efficiency scale, and Calvin has performed around 110 on the offensive end and 85 on the defensive end for the season. Needless to say beating those numbers by 10 on each end is a very good thing.

Calvin Knights Topple #7 Adrian Bulldogs

First off, should Adrian have been ranked in the Top-10? Probably not, but they have represented themselves to-date as a solid Top-25 team and a ranking in the teens wouldn’t have been underserved. They’re certainly still a Top-25 team even with the loss. I’m probably splitting hairs here, I know that, but this wasn’t so much number seven versus unranked as it was more like, say, number 14 versus 28. I mean, it was exactly number seven versus unranked, but that billing doesn’t do justice to the relative quality of the teams.

What I mean to say is that although Adrian was highly ranked and Calvin not ranked, this was going to be a close game, and one that Calvin would likely win. Massey had Calvin as a 62% favorite and predicted a three-point win. My unadjusted efficiency numbers predicted a 60-54 Calvin win. I’m not really sure what I’m trying to say here other than that Calvin and Adrian are both very good teams, and that this particular game went pretty much according to form.

It’s tough to immediately recall a game that was more tightly contested from start to finish. Calvin never trailed by more than two, and never took a lead larger than six until the final five minutes when they stretched it to seven on two occasions. But even with the score close – seemed like it was Calvin by four for the entire second half – it didn’t necessarily feel like it was “only” a two-possession game. The game was a defensive battle and I’m sure (though I haven’t done it) one might be able to count the number of times either team scored in back-to-back possessions on one hand.

The win got Calvin on the D3hoops front page:

It was a great game to watch – if you don’t mind the absence of pretty offense – and a great win for the Knights.

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The MIAA is a One Bid League Unless…

Hope loses in the MIAA Tournament
This one is obvious. There’s always a chance, that the wheels completely fall off for the Flying Dutchmen and they lose a bunch of games, but the chances of that happening are pretty much zero. Even if Hope somehow drops two games in the regular season (say, at Adrian and at Calvin) AND loses in the MIAA tournament, they would still have a fair-to-good chance at receiving one of the precious 19 Pool C bids for the NCAA Tournament. They’re as close to a lock as you can get with still a month to play.

Knocking off Hope in the conference tournament would be the ‘easiest’ way for the MIAA to get two bids. Not that it’s easy to beat Hope in Holland, but Calvin, Albion, and Trine (and any other non-Adrian candidate for tournament spots) don’t really have any other option. Pool C is off the table for these teams.

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Adrian Preview

	Game Nineteen (9-9, 4-3)
Who	Adrian Bulldogs (12-5, 5-2)
Where	Van Noord Arena
When	Wednesday, January 28 -- 3:00 PM
Audio	Stretch Internet
Video	Stretch Internet, MIAA Gameday
Stats	Live Stats, MIAA Gameday

When We Last Met
Calvin lost by seven out in Adrian in this season's MIAA opener. It was the first game the Knights played without Mickey DeVries, and just the third game following Mitch Vallie's injury. Both teams shot under 40% for the game, but Adrian lead pretty much the whole way. The real killer for the Knights was their 3-17 performance on three point field goals.

The Bulldogs currently hold a three game winning streak over Calvin, whose last win in the series came back in February of 2010. Freshmen Tom Snikkers and Bryan Powell combined for ten points.

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Stats-and-More Versus Adrian

Win Probability

Adrian jumped out to a 3-0 lead, and it was Calvin playing catch up pretty much the rest of the way. Despite taking a brief one-point lead, and cutting the Adrian margin to one possession on a couple of occasions, they were never able to get their win probability above 45%.

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Not enough

Adrian 68, Calvin 61 (box score)

Calvin’s losing the battle of attrition hard right now. First it was Jordan Brink with a shoulder injury in October. Then it was Mitch Vallie’s busted arm last week. Now, as indicated on last night’s radio broadcast, it appears that Mickey DeVries will have to spend some time away from the team as he gets his academics in order.

But what that doesn’t excuse is the plethora of 38%-ish shooting nights that we’ve seen from this team. Last night in Adrian, Calvin took 29 shots that were classified as two-point “jumpers” in the box score*. Of those 29 shots, only 10 were made (.345). Add that to the horrid 3-17 (.176) night they had from the three point line and it’s easy to see why Calvin lost the game, even with Adrian shooting only 39.6% themselves. On two and three point jump shots last night, the Knights effectively shot just 31.5%.

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Adrian Preview

	Game Twelve
Who	Adrian Bulldogs (7-3, 0-0)
Where	Merillat Center, Adrian, MI
When	Wednesday, January 4
Audio	(Calvin) Stretch Internet
Video	(Adrian) UStream
Stats	Live Stats

When We Last Met
The Adrian Bulldogs hold a two game winning streak over the Calvin Knights. The latest of which was an excruciating 75-63 home loss in February of last year. As was the case often last season, Adrian clamped down hard on defense, holding Calvin to under 36% from the floor. Adrian shot 54% themselves (57% on three pointers), and never really allowed Calvin to get much closer than 10 points in the second half.

About Adrian
Adrian is a really interesting team. They just recently received a transfer from DI Florida International in 6-4 sophomore forward Richaud Pack. He appeared in nine games at FIU earlier THIS SEASON, averaging 8.3 minutes per game. In his two games with the Bulldogs, he's averaged 21 points in 24.5 minutes. Pack and freshman guard Eric Lewis (6-2) may be Adrian's best two players as underclassmen. With zero seniors on the team and a 7-3 non-conference record, the future is definitely bright for coach Mark White and the Adrian Bulldogs.

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The Replacements



Yes Woody, Seniors will have to be replaced.


Zac and I (and our wives, and my child) drove out to Minneapolis for Memorial weekend, so we had lots of time to discuss sports (mostly Tigers baseball and Calvin hoops). We left Friday after work (with an expected 3:00 AM (EST) arrival time, so we needed to keep conversation going to ensure the driver stayed alert.

Anyway, one of the topics that came up was the outlook for the 2012 MIAA season. Who will be the favorite? Who’s going to fill out the top four? We couldn’t really decide, so we played a rousing game of “better or worse”. Our reactions for each teams was as follows:

Adrian: lots of young players – “better”.
Albion: losing two starters – perhaps “marginally worse”.
Alma: can’t get much worse – “even”.
Calvin: losing good players, but there’s a core of young talent – a biased “marginally better”.
Hope: losing Bowser, Dickerson, and Tanis – “worse”.
Kalamazoo: losing Ryan Clark – “worse”
Olivet: losing “everyone” – “much worse”
Trine: lots of young players – “better”

I’m not saying that this is accurate, but that’s what the gut told us without looking at rosters or playing time or scoring averages. We eventually figured the standings would look something like this:

1 – Calvin – The slight favorite, but not a lock.
2 – Hope – still a very good team. Could win the league or end up third.
3 – Adrian – Will be top three. Could challenge the top two, but they were “only” 7-7 last year.
4 – Albion – Because they’re always in the top four.
5 – Trine – They have enough young players to make a jump in the standings.
6 – Kalamazoo – Hard to replace Ryan Clark, but they won’t be at the bottom.
7 – Olivet – It’s going to be a long year. Losing a ton of talent.
8 – Alma – Still bad.

But I wanted to get a real look at who’s staying, and who’s leaving to get a better of idea of how difficult it will actually be for each team to find replacements. So I crunched some numbers.

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MIAA Final Four Preview

MIAA	Final Four
Where	Holland, MI
When	Friday and Saturday
Video	None
Audio	Calvin, Hope
LiveStats	Stats
Directions	Google Maps

The MIAA's final weekend is here! At least one team will advance to the NCAA tournament, and at least two teams will see their season end in Holland.

The good news for Calvin fans is that the Knights get to play the only team of the four that they swept during the regular season. That's not to say that getting to Saturday night will be a cakewalk, Albion was third for a reason, but it does comfort me.

I'm not expecting that I'll have time to 'preview' the championship game (let's operate under the assumption that Calvin beats Albion for the moment), so consider this your preview post for the whole weekend. You can think of it like a bonus post if you wish, but don't worry, you don't have to pay me any extra.

Let's jump to the graph! (click on it for a larger version)

Note that the graph title is a play on words. I'm hilarious.

In case we have newbies on the blog (or oldbies that want more explanation), here's a rundown of what these stats mean.

These are what are referred to as the four factors. They are supposedly the four stats that are most indicative of winning and losing. They are (in priority order) effective field goal percentage (eFG%), turnover rate (TOr), rebounding percentage (Rb%), and free throw rate (FTr). The first four sets of bars are for each team's offense and the second four are from the perspective of the defenses.

Effective field goal percentage is just like field goal percentage, but it adjusts numbers to account for the additional point of a made three pointer. Because when it comes to scoring points, 2-6 from three point range is worth the same as 3-6 from two. Average offenses are in the 0.490-0.500 eFG% range.

Turnover rate is the percentage of team possessions that end in a turnover. This one's pretty simple and obvious. Good offenses turn the ball over infrequently (you want to be less than 20%), and good defenses force extra turnovers (you'd like to force more than 20%).

Rebounding percentage is also easy to grasp. It's the percentage of available rebounds that a team collects on each end of the court. Average teams get about 68% of the rebounds on defense and 32% on offense.

Lastly, we have free throw rate. Getting to the free throw line can be an underrated skill. As long as you're shooing better than 60% from the stripe, you're helping your team's offensive efficiency rating. Free throw rate just tells us how many free throws a team shoots for every field goal attempt. Extra shots usually mean extra points. Average is about 0.36. A good offense supplements their point total with trips to the line, but a solid defense can lock you down without fouling.

From the graph, it looks like Calvin has two distinct advantages over the other three teams. They rebound the ball extremely well on the offensive end, and they don't send opponents to the free throw line very often.

Comparatively, Calvin's biggest weakness with respect to Albion, Hope, and Adrian is that they don't force many turnovers on defense. They do, however, look very good in the other three defensive categories.

Probable Starters
Here's a brief glance at the stats of the expected starters for the four teams.

Calvin	%Shots	PPWS	eFG%	TO%	Rb%	FTr	Ar	Blk%
Rodts	0.21	1.23	0.584	0.14	0.10	0.30	0.10	0.02
Snikkers	0.31	1.11	0.503	0.21	0.14	0.45	0.22	0.02
Schuster	0.21	1.13	0.543	0.07	0.12	0.19	0.07	0.16
Powell	0.25	0.86	0.414	0.16	0.05	0.12	0.24	0.01
Salo	0.12	1.23	0.585	0.17	0.07	0.23	0.13	0.00
Calvin	-	1.10	0.507	0.21	0.55	0.35	0.52	0.24

Albion	%Shots	PPWS	eFG%	TO%	Rb%	FTr	Ar	Blk%
Cruse	0.28	1.02	0.469	0.17	0.12	0.74	0.18	0.08
Kazen	0.21	1.08	0.495	0.23	0.12	0.45	0.12	0.00
Siebert	0.23	1.01	0.468	0.10	0.11	0.26	0.07	0.01
Hutton	0.32	1.12	0.504	0.14	0.06	0.34	0.15	0.00
Wash	0.15	1.08	0.505	0.28	0.05	0.21	0.18	0.00
Albion	-	1.04	0.471	0.21	0.53	0.45	0.48	0.10

Hope	%Shots	PPWS	eFG%	TO%	Rb%	FTr	Ar	Blk%
Bowser	0.29	1.18	0.561	0.12	0.09	0.35	0.10	0.03
Krombeen	0.22	1.11	0.520	0.17	0.10	0.27	0.30	0.03
Tanis	0.21	1.02	0.459	0.10	0.04	0.32	0.09	0.01
Snuggerud	0.24	1.16	0.543	0.14	0.15	0.29	0.11	0.11
Dickerson	0.16	1.19	0.602	0.21	0.13	0.21	0.06	0.07
Hope	-	1.14	0.535	0.18	0.52	0.36	0.55	0.19

Adrian	%Shots	PPWS	eFG%	TO%	Rb%	FTr	Ar	Blk%
Collins	0.14	0.88	0.391	0.26	0.06	0.41	0.37	0.00
Gallant	0.20	1.06	0.510	0.18	0.13	0.31	0.13	0.08
Reed	0.24	1.03	0.456	0.10	0.05	0.29	0.10	0.00
Mason	0.18	0.96	0.484	0.20	0.14	0.31	0.03	0.14
Mosley	0.30	1.11	0.479	0.14	0.12	0.53	0.12	0.04
Adrian	-	1.00	0.465	0.22	0.52	0.33	0.57	0.27

The team stats at the bottom of each chart are for the team as a whole, not just the starters. Some of these stats are the same as above, but here's a quick explanation of the new ones. Bold numbers represent the high number in each category out of the starters (just thought it would be fun).

%Shots - The percentage of the team's shots a player takes while he's on the floor.
PPWS - Points per weighted shot. How many points a player records per attempt to score.
Ar - Assist rate. The percentage of made field goals that a player assists on while he's in the game.
Blk% - The percentage of opponents' two-point shot attempts that a player blocks while he's in the game.

I'm really geeked for these games. I think we'll have two quality semifinal contests on our hands. I was fairly nervous before Wednesday's game, but now I'm just feeling excited. Not getting to the weekend would have been disappointing, but we're here now. There's an opportunity to get this thing done.

Sure To Be Wrong Prediction
Calvin over Albion by 5
Hope over Adrian by 7

Up Next:
The NCAA Tournament. If ya win.

I've been missing the tournament the last couple of years. Best road trips ever. It's what got me hooked in the first place. Just win.

I'm going to request some tentative vacation from work for next Friday just in case. Just in case.

Tied For Second Place

Adrian 75, Calvin 63 (box)

This is what I have to keep repeating over and over to myself to keep from going insane. "Tied for second place."

Calvin is now tied with Adrian, Albion, Kalamazoo, and Olivet at 6-5 in the conference.

It's really the same as being tied for sixth place at this point, but second place sounds better. Second place carries the prize of not having to play one of the other teams in the same clustermess of humanity.

Because the "bottom" of the MIAA just isn't the same as it used to be. The last several years has been Calvin and Hope, a semi-dangerous Albion, and everyone else. And they were called everyone else because you really didn't care who they were because they just weren't going to beat a Calvin or a Hope.

Some will say that Calvin is down this year, and that's very very true, but the league is also up at the same time. Take Trine for an example. Several folks thought that they'd be able to challenge for a top four spot in the league because of their stellar non-conference record, but they're solidly in seventh place. They're not a great team, but they're the best seventh place MIAA team I've ever seen. (Although I only date to the '03-'04 season).

I certainly don't fancy seeing Calvin face Kalamazoo again, and Michael McClary and Olivet scare me as well, but I think Adrian might be the team that I would least like to see Calvin face again this year. And I might also include Hope in that group.

Perhaps I'm overreacting to the severe beating that Calvin took at the hands of the Bulldogs, but they seem to be perfectly built to thwart Calvin. They have the athletes required to stay in front of, and frustrate, the Calvin offensive players. On offense they have the discipline to work the shot clock and wait for the open shots to come.

And they certainly knocked down their open shots.

The Bulldogs shot an astounding effective field goal percentage of 0.660 for the game. That's their best shooting game of the year. As far as total offensive efficiency is concerned, Adrian's game Wednesday was their second best night of the year (Offensive efficiency rating of 123.3). The only better game they've had was a 124.8 rating in a 81-42 rout of Alma a few weeks ago.

I don't think Adrian could repeat their shooting performance should they have a third match-up with the Knights, but Calvin's defense needs to do a better job on getting out to guard the Adrian shooters. They weren't doing anything secretive, they simply set screens and skipped or swung the ball to the open shooter. You knew it was coming, but far to many times the Calvin defender allowed himself to be on the wrong side of the screen.

Mini rant on the officials: If a player is moving while he's screening a player, that's a foul. If a player is sliding into a screen, it's a foul. Worst call of the night: Bryan Powell was fighting through a screen that kept on getting set, and reset, and reset for several feet, but Bryan got whistled for a 'push'. Whatever.

But faulty officiating isn't to blame for the loss. Calvin got flat-out beat by a team that was 100% better that night.

The time to start playing better is now.

Sorry for the incoherent game recap post.

Adrian Preview

Game	Twenty Two
Who	Adrian Bulldogs
Where	Van Noord Arena
When	Wed. -- 7:30 PM
Web Video	Video
Web Audio	Audio
LiveStats	Stats

When We Last Met
Calvin had a seven point halftime lead at Adrian last month, and even extended that margin to ten points early in the second half, but Adrian went on a 25-4 run to steal the game away from the Knights.

The run lasted about eight minutes and saw seven Calvin turnovers. That, in the end, was the difference in the game. Way too many turnovers, and way too many second opportunities for the Adrian Bulldogs.

Matchup
I'm skipping my traditional 'advantage' chart and replacing it with a graphical representation of how the two teams match up according to Dean Oliver's "Four Factors." Oliver found these four statistics (effective field goal percentage, turnover rate, offensive rebound percentage, and free throw rate) to be the four most indicative of a team's success.

Here's how Calvin and Adrian rate (offensively) on the year (click image for larger version):

These numbers are tempo free, meaning you don't rate better or worse simply because you play at a faster or slower tempo. Grinnell is regularly one of the (if not the single) highest scoring teams in Division III every year. It's not because they're that good offensively, it's just because they play at a particularly fast pace, and there for take (and make) a ton of shots every game. So these types of stats are better for making comparisons than 'per game' stats.

Just looking at the graph, Calvin holds the statistical advantage in every offensive category (remember, it's good to have low turnover numbers). But the Knights don't often see defenses that are as good as the one Adrian has. It will be difficult for Calvin to play up to their season averages.

These two squads couldn't really be much more different (actually they could; it's just a saying). Calvin likes to play at a relatively fast pace (they get about 70 possessions per game), but Adrian likes to play at a more deliberate tempo (about 60 possessions per game).

But the differences don't stop with tempo. Calvin has been a good offensive team this season with only an average defense (a little worse), and Adrian has been a good defensive team with only an average offense (a little worse, actually). It's difficult to compare teams like this just using stats (but, of course, I'm doing it anyway). Efficiency ratings show these differences.

	Calvin	Adrian
Offensive Efficiency	107.3	95.3
Defensive Efficiency	102.1	91.9

Efficiency ratings are calculated as points (or points allowed) per 100 possessions.

So while Calvin's offense is "12 points better" than Adrian's offense (over 100 possessions), Adrian's defense is "11 points better" than Calvin's offense. It all becomes very hard to predict.

Sure To Be Wrong Prediction
Calvin by 4
Need to win level: High
Expected to win level: Medium High
Massey Prediction: Calvin 62, Adrian 55 (74% chance of victory)

Plus/Minus Versus Adrian and Alma

I haven't done one of these posts in a while, so today's my catch-up (not catsup or ketchup) day.

Here's the game charts for the loss at Adrian and the win at Alma. One looks good, and one looks bad.

Adrian

Player	(+)	(-)	(+/-)	MIN	(+)/min	(-)/min	(+/-)/min
Brink	20	29	-9	17	1.18	1.71	-0.53
DeBoer	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
DeYoung	4	13	-9	5	0.80	2.60	-1.80
Fabiyi	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Greene	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Haverdink	18	23	-5	12	1.50	1.92	-0.42
Kruis	21	29	-8	18	1.17	1.61	-0.44
Powell	15	26	-11	20	0.75	1.30	-0.55
Rietema	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Rodts	40	48	-8	26	1.54	1.85	-0.31
Salo	39	40	-1	23	1.70	1.74	-0.04
Schnyders	40	41	-1	23	1.74	1.78	-0.04
Schuster	54	55	-1	32	1.69	1.72	-0.03
Snikkers	44	41	3	24	1.83	1.71	0.13
Vallie	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Team	295	345	-50	200	1.48	1.73	-0.25

Alma

Player	(+)	(-)	(+/-)	MIN	(+)/min	(-)/min	(+/-)/min
Brink	35	34	1	21	1.67	1.62	0.05
DeBoer	4	0	4	3	1.33	0.00	1.33
DeYoung	15	22	-7	11	1.36	2.00	-0.64
Fabiyi	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Greene	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Haverdink	19	18	1	11	1.73	1.64	0.09
Kruis	27	21	6	15	1.80	1.40	0.40
Powell	39	30	9	20	1.95	1.50	0.45
Rietema	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Rodts	62	46	16	30	2.07	1.53	0.53
Salo	38	30	8	19	2.00	1.58	0.42
Schnyders	29	32	-3	18	1.61	1.78	-0.17
Schuster	49	47	2	25	1.96	1.88	0.08
Snikkers	48	40	8	27	1.78	1.48	0.30
Vallie	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Team	365	320	45	200	1.83	1.60	0.23

We've learned that even the season-long numbers are influenced a great deal by random variations, but I think displaying these numbers is still a worthwhile exercise.

Season Totals

Player	(+)	(-)	(+/-)	MIN	(+)/min	(-)/min	(+/-)/min
Rodts	709	645	64	372	1.91	1.73	0.17
Snikkers	667	600	67	350	1.91	1.71	0.19
Schuster	617	540	77	317	1.95	1.70	0.24
Powell	592	516	76	315	1.88	1.64	0.24
Brink	580	489	91	288	2.01	1.70	0.32
Schnyders	452	422	30	240	1.88	1.76	0.13
Haverdink	368	378	-10	207	1.78	1.83	-0.05
Kruis	244	252	-8	162	1.51	1.56	-0.05
DeBoer	244	221	23	124	1.97	1.78	0.19
DeYoung	221	216	5	124	1.78	1.74	0.04
Salo	125	131	-6	84	1.49	1.56	-0.07
Vallie	23	24	-1	15	1.53	1.60	-0.07
Fabiyi	8	1	7	4	2.00	0.25	1.75
Greene	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Rietema	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Team	4850	4435	415	2602	1.86	1.70	0.16

Included: Davenport, Grace (second half), Ohio Wesleyan, Aquinas-I (first half), Cornerstone, Trinity, Aquinas-II, Benedictine, DePauw, Hope, Kalamazoo, Olivet (first half), Adrian, Alma
Not Included: Grace (first half), Aquinas-I (second half), Wheaton, Carthage, Olivet (second half)

Bulldog Defense Was A Drain On The Knights

Adrian 69, Calvin 59

You're simply not going to win many games when you have more turnovers than made field goals.

The Adrian Bulldogs have one of the top defenses of any Division III team (THE best, if you're a believer in the Massey ratings), and they certainly worked over the Knights on Saturday. Calvin turned the ball over 17 times (30% of their possessions) and was out of sync all evening on the offensive end.

A poor offense was certainly to blame for this loss. Or, at least, that's how it looked at first glance. Upon further investigation, it appears that the defense should share at least half of the blame, if not more.

Here's the two teams offensive numbers from the game:

Team	%Min	%Shots	eFG%	PPWS	FTr	Ar	TO%	Rb%	OEff
Calvin	1.00	1.00	0.451	1.14	0.56	0.64	0.30	0.49	101.8
Adrian	1.00	1.00	0.473	1.06	0.34	0.52	0.17	0.51	119.0

So Calvin was definitely off their usual offensive pace (season's offensive efficiency has been around 107), but 101.8 is a little above what might be considered "league average" (usually right around 100). To get to their average mark of 107, they would have needed to score about three more points, and that still wouldn't have been enough for the win. So, a sub-par offensive performance isn't solely to blame for the loss.

Offensive efficiency rating (OEff) is points per 100 possessions. In this game, each team had about 58 possessions.

The offensive efficiency rating of 119.0 that Adrian put up is quite high. Coming into the game, their average rating was in the neighborhood of 92. Had Calvin held them to that mark, they would have only allowed the Bulldogs to garner 54 points. Some of the extra points came from fouling late in the game, but even if we took away five or six points, the Calvin defense would still look poor.

Game Chart

Player	%Min	%Shots	eFG%	PPWS	FTr	Ar	TO%	Rb%
Powell	0.50	0.20	0.375	1.01	0.50	0.17	0.29	0.10
Salo	0.58	0.13	0.500	1.00	0.00	0.14	0.00	0.00
Rodts	0.65	0.11	0.500	1.00	0.00	0.12	0.60	0.15
Snikkers	0.60	0.20	0.200	1.14	1.60	0.27	0.41	0.21
Schuster	0.80	0.34	0.455	1.00	0.18	0.14	0.00	0.10
Brink	0.43	0.23	0.750	1.62	0.50	0.00	0.60	0.04
Haverdink	0.30	0.33	0.625	1.25	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.11
Schnyders	0.58	0.17	0.250	1.21	2.25	0.28	0.11	0.06
Kruis	0.45	0.11	0.750	1.50	0.00	0.19	0.33	0.00
DeYoung	0.13	0.20	0.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

These numbers are surprising to me as well. If we look at the PPWS column, we discover that no one had a particularly poor day with scoring efficiency. PPWS (points per weighted shot) approximates how many points a player scores per attempt to score; it's an individual scoring efficiency rating of sorts. The weighted shots part comes because the formula factors in free throw attempts. An average day would be about 1.00. Anything in the 1.10-1.20 range is very good, and anything over 1.20 is outstanding.

So, when Calvin was actually able to get a shot off, they were quite successful. It's the turnover numbers that prevented the Knights from scoring more points. 30% for the team is way too high. From the radio broadcast, it sounded like it was a combination of good defense and poor decision making. Can't be careless against a really good defense.

The really good Calvin teams are the ones who can clamp down on defense. This year's squad isn't there yet, and that's the reason they're struggling.

Adrian Preview

Game	Fifteen
Who	Adrian Bulldogs
Where	Adrian, MI
When	Sat. - 7:30 PM
Web Video	None
Web Audio	Audio
LiveStats	Stats
Tickets	$5, $3
Directions	Google Maps

When We Last Met
Adrian was making a run in the standings late last season when the Calvin Knights made the trek to the Merillat Gymnasium. The Bulldogs (7-3) trailed Calvin and Hope (both 8-2) by only a single game, and, since they still had the Knights and the Dutchmen remaining on the schedule, they were in a position to claim a share of the league title.

But the Knights didn’t yield to the wishes of the Adrian Bulldogs. Calvin lead for almost the entire game (Adrian took one lead in the first half), and left town with an eleven point win.

Matchup

Matchup	Calvin	Olivet	Advantage
Calvin eFG% vs. Adrian DeFG%	0.517	0.435	Adrian
Calvin DeFG% vs. Adrian eFG%	0.492	0.438	Calvin
Calvin TO% vs. Adrian DTO%	0.21	0.23	Adrian
Calvin DTO% vs. Adrian TO%	0.18	0.23	-
Calvin ORb% vs. Adrian DRb%	0.364	0.693	Calvin
Calvin DRb% vs. Adrian ORb%	0.706	0.350	-
Calvin FTr vs. Adrain DFTr	0.32	0.44	-
Calvin DFTr vs. Adrain FTr	0.32	0.33	Calvin
Calvin OEff vs. Adrain DEff	107.1	90.4	Adrian
Calvin DEff vs. Adrain OEff	102.6	92.8	Calvin

As you can see from the DeFG% and DEff numbers, Adrian hangs their hat on hard-nosed defense.

They reportedly play a deliberate style of offense that picks and pokes at the opposing defense, but it doesn't appear to be particularly effective. They're only effectively shooting 44%, and their offensive efficiency rating is a pretty poor 92.8.

But their defense is better than their offense is bad, so they're still a dangerous team. Calvin is going to have to take care of the ball and make their possessions count -- something they struggle with at times -- if they want to pick up a road win on Saturday.

Sure To Be Wrong Prediction
Calvin by 9
Need to win level: high
Expected to win level: high