Previewing the 2021-22 MIAA Season

All eight MIAA men's basketball teams have completed their non-conference schedules and will move to conference play beginning on January 5.

Coming into the season, Trine was the heavy favorite after returning nearly everyone from the team that went 17-1 (5-0 MIAA) and won the conference tournament in the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season. That expectation has perhaps shifted after a non-conference season that saw Trine lose four games (and record a few uncomfortable wins against inferior competition).

Calvin has seemingly supplanted the Thunder as the league favorite as league play begins on Wednesday. Here's a look at where each team stands in the efficiency ratings I run for all of Division III men's basketball:

 

D3 Rank	Team	AdjEM	AdjO	AdjD
25	Calvin	22.4	113.8	91.5
72	Albion	13.8	104.7	90.9
70	Trine	14.0	101.4	87.5
77	Hope	12.6	108.5	95.9
167	Olivet	3.0	96.8	93.8
258	Kalamazoo	-3.7	101.3	105.0
267	Adrian	-4.5	97.2	101.7
297	Alma	-8.1	96.6	104.6

A quick explainer for those who haven't followed my ratings: Adjusted efficiency margin is the difference between a team's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings (the 'adjusted' means the calculations are iterated to account for quality of opponent). This is the number of points they'd be expected to outscore an average D3 team in 100 possessions. The offensive rating (AdjO) is how many points they'd be expected to score (per 100 possessions) and the defensive rating (AdjD) is how many points they'd be expected to give up (per 100 possessions).

So based on results* to date, we have something like four tiers of teams forming in the MIAA. Calvin is alone in tier 1 as a (fringe) Top-25 caliber team, Albion, Trine, and Hope are bunched up very tightly in tier 2, Olivet is in their own tier a bit above D3 average, and Kalamazoo, Adrian, and Alma are in the fourth tier a bit below average.

*I only calculate data from D3 vs. D3 games so nothing against D1, D1, or NAIA is included here.

The cool thing about these efficiency ratings is that we can use them to predict scores for individual matchups. If we add in a few points for home court advantage, we can predict the outcome of any game. So, for example, my computer favors Calvin over Albion in Wednesday's conference opener 74-72 and gives Calvin a 59% chance of winning the game. If I run these percentages for all 56 conference games, I get the following expected standings:

 

Team	Expected Wins	Expected Losses	Expected PF	Expected PA
Calvin	11.8	2.2	1148	957
Albion	9.5	4.5	1061	969
Trine	9.5	4.5	1000	910
Hope	9.1	4.9	1078	1001
Olivet	6.0	8.0	1060	1098
Kalamazoo	4.0	10.0	967	1076
Adrian	3.4	10.6	1065	1203
Alma	2.7	11.3	960	1124

Now, obviously, the standings won't end up exactly like this. Someone (Olivet) is going to win some games they're not supposed to win and we'll likely end up with more bunching towards the middle as teams get familiar with each other. But that's the way the computer sees the league shaping up before we play the games.

For Calvin in particular, they're going to have to make hay the first time through the league schedule as they have Hope, Trine, and Olivet at home and only Albion on the road of the other MIAA teams with a positive adjusted efficiency margin. They'll really need to be 5-2 (or preferably better) in those first seven games to feel really good about their chances to win the regular season conference title.

Looking ahead to the NCAA Tournament, the MIAA is most probably a one-bid league. It's not likely that the tournament runner up will have the resume required to receive an at-large bid. Most of the league is exiting non-conference play with a strong strength of schedule, but the league's overall non-conference record means those SOS numbers are going to decrease as we go.

I see Calvin, Hope, Albion, and Trine all staying a fair bit above the .500 strength-of-schedule Mendoza line that is the de facto requirement for NCAA Tournament selection, but not so far above that they'll be a strong contender unless they're also touting winning percentages in the .850 range (or so). That's... probably not going to happen. The best case for an at-large berth from the MIAA is for one of these teams to go 12-2 or 13-1 in conference play and then lose in the conference tournament final, and even that might not be enough to escape the bubble.

Turning our attention to opening night on Wednesday, it looks like we have a great slate of competitive games. Here's what my score predictor expects:

Away		Home		Home %	Away%	Pace	Line	Total
Olivet	86	Adrian	83	40%	60%	89	+3.0	169.5
Trine	66	Hope	68	60%	40%	69	-3.0	134.0
Kalamazoo	72	Alma	73	53%	47%	69	-1.0	145.0
Calvin	74	Albion	72	41%	59%	72	+2.5	146.0

All four games are 60%-40% or tighter and none of the expected score differentials are wider than one possession. The winners -- particularly of Trine-Hope and Calvin-Albion will have a leg up in the conference race. It should be a good night of basketball. 

Albion Preview

	Game Thirteen
Who	Albion Britons (5-7, 1-0)
Where	Van Noord Arena
When	Saturday, January 7 -- 3:00 PM
Audio	Stretch Internet
Video	Stretch Internet,, MIAA Gameday
Stats	Live Stats, MIAA Gameday

When We Last Met
The last Calvin-Albion meeting of the season last year was a 15 point Calvin victory in the MIAA Semifinals at the DeVos Fieldhouse in Holland. Calvin swept the three-game season series with the Britons by margins of 31, 6, and 15. Albion couldn’t really do much offensively against the Calvin defense -- their high-score in the three games against the Knights was only 53, and their average actually came in below 50.

It’s kind of surprising considering the history of these two teams, but Calvin currently holds an eight (!) game winning streak versus Albion, with the last defeat being a one-point loss at (historic) Kresge Gymnasium back in February of 2008. Only Trine and Alma have longer losing streaks versus the Knights.

Continue Reading This Post >>

Top Ten Moments: 4. Calvin Battles Albion When it Counts

Previously:
10. Andy Draayer En Fuego
9. Calvin Claims Final GRSHOF Tournament Championship
8. Calvin Wins "Home" Tournament Game in Aurora
7. Matt Veltema's Only Field Goal Was a Good One
6. Hope's First Loss at DeVos, and Lightning Strikes Twice
5. Kyle Trewhella Stuns the Trinity Trolls

4. Calvin Battles Albion When it Counts (Feb. 26, 2005 and March 12, 2005)

As Calvin fans, we’re no strangers to tightly contested season series – the Knights play one with Hope nearly every year – but few of them are ever quite as important, tough, and hard-fought as the four game Calvin-Albion series was in the 2004-2005 season.

Entering the first meeting of the year (in mid-January), the Britons were a perfect 11-0 and held the #5 ranking in the country. Calvin, having suffered a loss to Division II Ferris State, a one-point loss to Cornerstone, and an overtime loss to Wheaton was sitting at 9-3 and was receiving a few Top 25 votes. Calvin battled hard to keep up with Albion inside the old Calvin Fieldhouse after falling behind by double digits early in the second half but, in the end, a Ricky Shilts heave at the buzzer wouldn’t fall and the Knights dropped the game by three points.

Continue Reading This Post >>

The Replacements



Yes Woody, Seniors will have to be replaced.


Zac and I (and our wives, and my child) drove out to Minneapolis for Memorial weekend, so we had lots of time to discuss sports (mostly Tigers baseball and Calvin hoops). We left Friday after work (with an expected 3:00 AM (EST) arrival time, so we needed to keep conversation going to ensure the driver stayed alert.

Anyway, one of the topics that came up was the outlook for the 2012 MIAA season. Who will be the favorite? Who’s going to fill out the top four? We couldn’t really decide, so we played a rousing game of “better or worse”. Our reactions for each teams was as follows:

Adrian: lots of young players – “better”.
Albion: losing two starters – perhaps “marginally worse”.
Alma: can’t get much worse – “even”.
Calvin: losing good players, but there’s a core of young talent – a biased “marginally better”.
Hope: losing Bowser, Dickerson, and Tanis – “worse”.
Kalamazoo: losing Ryan Clark – “worse”
Olivet: losing “everyone” – “much worse”
Trine: lots of young players – “better”

I’m not saying that this is accurate, but that’s what the gut told us without looking at rosters or playing time or scoring averages. We eventually figured the standings would look something like this:

1 – Calvin – The slight favorite, but not a lock.
2 – Hope – still a very good team. Could win the league or end up third.
3 – Adrian – Will be top three. Could challenge the top two, but they were “only” 7-7 last year.
4 – Albion – Because they’re always in the top four.
5 – Trine – They have enough young players to make a jump in the standings.
6 – Kalamazoo – Hard to replace Ryan Clark, but they won’t be at the bottom.
7 – Olivet – It’s going to be a long year. Losing a ton of talent.
8 – Alma – Still bad.

But I wanted to get a real look at who’s staying, and who’s leaving to get a better of idea of how difficult it will actually be for each team to find replacements. So I crunched some numbers.

Continue Reading This Post >>

Just Win Baby

Calvin 68, Albion 53 (box)

Field goal shooting: check.

Calvin used a fantastic second half (0.773 eFG%) to make up for a poor first one (0.321 eFG%). For the game, the Knights shot (effectively) 0.520. That'll play just fine.

Field goal defense: check.

Calvin didn't allow too many easy looks at the basket for the Albion offense, and it seems like the Brits missed what few opportunities they did have. For the game, Albion shot (effectively) just 0.406.

Turnover rate: check.

It's been a sore spot on several occasions this year, but Calvin was able to keep their turnovers under control. They've been averaging a turnover on just over 20% of their possessions this season, but against Albion in this game, they turned it over just 16% of the time (10 times). Well done.

Rebounding: check.

Overall, Calvin out rebounded Albion by a 37 to 30 margin. They didn't do particularly well on the offensive glass (just 6 out of 27 available for 22%), but they killed it on the defensive end (31 out of 40 for 77.5%). They simply didn't allow many second chance opportunities off of Albion's missed shots (and there were plenty).

Free throw rate: check.

Albion was one of the better teams in the league at getting to the free throw line, but Calvin really limited that in this game. Albion shot 0.3 free throws for every field goal attempt (they'd been averaging around 0.45). That's been a strength of Calvin's defense this year: not fouling.

On offense, Calvin got to the line with good regularity. The Knights shot 0.40 free throws for every field goal in this game (they've been averaging 0.35). Getting to the line can be a big deal, especially in a close game. This one didn't happen to be close, but, you know, it could have been.

Calvin won the game by pretty much winning every stat category. That's encouraging. The defense has been playing well. That's encouraging.

The MIAA's NCAA Tournament AQ is only one win away. That's encouraging.

Up Next
The MIAA championship game. At Hope, versus Hope.

The Calvin-Hope matchup means that the MIAA's automatic NCAA bid will go to either the Knights or the Flying Dutchmen for the 12th(!) year in a row. Talk about league parity.

I'm so jazzed up for a potential NCAA Tournament trip that I probably won't sleep tonight. I love it (The Tournament) so much. Calvin can do this.

Just win baby!

MIAA Final Four Preview

MIAA	Final Four
Where	Holland, MI
When	Friday and Saturday
Video	None
Audio	Calvin, Hope
LiveStats	Stats
Directions	Google Maps

The MIAA's final weekend is here! At least one team will advance to the NCAA tournament, and at least two teams will see their season end in Holland.

The good news for Calvin fans is that the Knights get to play the only team of the four that they swept during the regular season. That's not to say that getting to Saturday night will be a cakewalk, Albion was third for a reason, but it does comfort me.

I'm not expecting that I'll have time to 'preview' the championship game (let's operate under the assumption that Calvin beats Albion for the moment), so consider this your preview post for the whole weekend. You can think of it like a bonus post if you wish, but don't worry, you don't have to pay me any extra.

Let's jump to the graph! (click on it for a larger version)

Note that the graph title is a play on words. I'm hilarious.

In case we have newbies on the blog (or oldbies that want more explanation), here's a rundown of what these stats mean.

These are what are referred to as the four factors. They are supposedly the four stats that are most indicative of winning and losing. They are (in priority order) effective field goal percentage (eFG%), turnover rate (TOr), rebounding percentage (Rb%), and free throw rate (FTr). The first four sets of bars are for each team's offense and the second four are from the perspective of the defenses.

Effective field goal percentage is just like field goal percentage, but it adjusts numbers to account for the additional point of a made three pointer. Because when it comes to scoring points, 2-6 from three point range is worth the same as 3-6 from two. Average offenses are in the 0.490-0.500 eFG% range.

Turnover rate is the percentage of team possessions that end in a turnover. This one's pretty simple and obvious. Good offenses turn the ball over infrequently (you want to be less than 20%), and good defenses force extra turnovers (you'd like to force more than 20%).

Rebounding percentage is also easy to grasp. It's the percentage of available rebounds that a team collects on each end of the court. Average teams get about 68% of the rebounds on defense and 32% on offense.

Lastly, we have free throw rate. Getting to the free throw line can be an underrated skill. As long as you're shooing better than 60% from the stripe, you're helping your team's offensive efficiency rating. Free throw rate just tells us how many free throws a team shoots for every field goal attempt. Extra shots usually mean extra points. Average is about 0.36. A good offense supplements their point total with trips to the line, but a solid defense can lock you down without fouling.

From the graph, it looks like Calvin has two distinct advantages over the other three teams. They rebound the ball extremely well on the offensive end, and they don't send opponents to the free throw line very often.

Comparatively, Calvin's biggest weakness with respect to Albion, Hope, and Adrian is that they don't force many turnovers on defense. They do, however, look very good in the other three defensive categories.

Probable Starters
Here's a brief glance at the stats of the expected starters for the four teams.

Calvin	%Shots	PPWS	eFG%	TO%	Rb%	FTr	Ar	Blk%
Rodts	0.21	1.23	0.584	0.14	0.10	0.30	0.10	0.02
Snikkers	0.31	1.11	0.503	0.21	0.14	0.45	0.22	0.02
Schuster	0.21	1.13	0.543	0.07	0.12	0.19	0.07	0.16
Powell	0.25	0.86	0.414	0.16	0.05	0.12	0.24	0.01
Salo	0.12	1.23	0.585	0.17	0.07	0.23	0.13	0.00
Calvin	-	1.10	0.507	0.21	0.55	0.35	0.52	0.24

Albion	%Shots	PPWS	eFG%	TO%	Rb%	FTr	Ar	Blk%
Cruse	0.28	1.02	0.469	0.17	0.12	0.74	0.18	0.08
Kazen	0.21	1.08	0.495	0.23	0.12	0.45	0.12	0.00
Siebert	0.23	1.01	0.468	0.10	0.11	0.26	0.07	0.01
Hutton	0.32	1.12	0.504	0.14	0.06	0.34	0.15	0.00
Wash	0.15	1.08	0.505	0.28	0.05	0.21	0.18	0.00
Albion	-	1.04	0.471	0.21	0.53	0.45	0.48	0.10

Hope	%Shots	PPWS	eFG%	TO%	Rb%	FTr	Ar	Blk%
Bowser	0.29	1.18	0.561	0.12	0.09	0.35	0.10	0.03
Krombeen	0.22	1.11	0.520	0.17	0.10	0.27	0.30	0.03
Tanis	0.21	1.02	0.459	0.10	0.04	0.32	0.09	0.01
Snuggerud	0.24	1.16	0.543	0.14	0.15	0.29	0.11	0.11
Dickerson	0.16	1.19	0.602	0.21	0.13	0.21	0.06	0.07
Hope	-	1.14	0.535	0.18	0.52	0.36	0.55	0.19

Adrian	%Shots	PPWS	eFG%	TO%	Rb%	FTr	Ar	Blk%
Collins	0.14	0.88	0.391	0.26	0.06	0.41	0.37	0.00
Gallant	0.20	1.06	0.510	0.18	0.13	0.31	0.13	0.08
Reed	0.24	1.03	0.456	0.10	0.05	0.29	0.10	0.00
Mason	0.18	0.96	0.484	0.20	0.14	0.31	0.03	0.14
Mosley	0.30	1.11	0.479	0.14	0.12	0.53	0.12	0.04
Adrian	-	1.00	0.465	0.22	0.52	0.33	0.57	0.27

The team stats at the bottom of each chart are for the team as a whole, not just the starters. Some of these stats are the same as above, but here's a quick explanation of the new ones. Bold numbers represent the high number in each category out of the starters (just thought it would be fun).

%Shots - The percentage of the team's shots a player takes while he's on the floor.
PPWS - Points per weighted shot. How many points a player records per attempt to score.
Ar - Assist rate. The percentage of made field goals that a player assists on while he's in the game.
Blk% - The percentage of opponents' two-point shot attempts that a player blocks while he's in the game.

I'm really geeked for these games. I think we'll have two quality semifinal contests on our hands. I was fairly nervous before Wednesday's game, but now I'm just feeling excited. Not getting to the weekend would have been disappointing, but we're here now. There's an opportunity to get this thing done.

Sure To Be Wrong Prediction
Calvin over Albion by 5
Hope over Adrian by 7

Up Next:
The NCAA Tournament. If ya win.

I've been missing the tournament the last couple of years. Best road trips ever. It's what got me hooked in the first place. Just win.

I'm going to request some tentative vacation from work for next Friday just in case. Just in case.

Calvin Defense Clamps Down On Albion... Again

Calvin 51, Albion 45 (box)

We were expecting a struggle at (historic) Kresge Gymnasium on Saturday, and that's exactly what we got.

This game was won by the defenses. Both teams’ shooting percentages were well below 40%. The point differential was close the entire way, but, in the end, Calvin’s defense was too much for the Britons.

Calvin held Albion to only 17 second half points, zero of which came in the game’s final 4:50.

Albion's 45 points is the second lowest total by a Calvin opponent this season. Aquinas scored only 44 against the Knights over Thanksgiving weekend. The next lowest total is 50 in the home meeting with Albion. Apparently, the Brits don't much care for Calvin's defense.

Albion's leading scorer, J.C. Cruse, is now 1-14 from the floor in two games against Calvin; he's scored just six total points versus the Knights this year.

Stats

Player	%Min	%Shots	eFG%	PPWS	FTr	Ar	TO%	Rb%
Rodts	0.73	0.18	0.167	0.58	0.33	0.09	0.13	0.28
Snikkers	0.68	0.25	0.750	1.54	0.63	0.15	0.33	0.26
Schuster	0.70	0.21	0.714	1.43	0.00	0.13	0.00	0.08
Powell	0.43	0.45	0.333	0.67	0.00	0.24	0.10	0.07
Salo	0.53	0.08	0.000	0.68	1.00	0.22	0.00	0.06
Brink	0.48	0.27	0.250	0.50	0.00	0.28	0.25	0.19
Haverdink	0.23	0.09	0.000	0.00	0.00	0.26	0.50	0.26
Schnyders	0.43	0.25	0.300	0.67	0.40	0.16	0.14	0.07
Kruis	0.68	0.09	0.667	1.22	1.33	0.21	0.17	0.22
DeYoung	0.15	0.00	0.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
Total	1.00	1.00	0.426	0.94	0.32	0.71	0.24	0.49

Not a whole lot of good numbers outside of Snikkers and Schuster. They combined for 26 points. The rest of the team combined for 25.

But the game wasn't about pretty offenses and wide open shots. It was about grit and determination and everything else I usually eschew.

Up Next
Calvin gets Trine at home on Wednesday in the first round of the MIAA tournament. The Knights need to reach the MIAA championship game to reach 16 wins, which would match their lowest win total since at least 1995-1996 (that's as far back as I can find on the interwebs).

Calvin will need to win the MIAA tournament to get into the NCAA tournament.

Albion Preview

Game	Twenty Five
Who	Albion Britons
Where	Albion, MI
When	Saturday -- 7:30 PM
Web Video	Video
Web Audio	Audio
LiveStats	Stats
Directions	Google Maps

When We Last Met
Albion got embarassed. Calvin jumped out to a fast start, and Albion mailed it in before halftime.

The Albion starters, who comined for only 16 points in the game, hardly played in the second half.

Matchup
I'm expecting more than 10 or 15 minutes of effort from the Britons this time around. Don't let the previous result lull you into calm. It's going to be a tough, physical game.

To The Graphs!

The graphs show that these two teams are quite similar. Maybe not in the style of play, but in the results.

Effective field goal percentages on both ends of the floor are relatively similar (Calvin holds the edge in both) and the turnover rates are nearly identical (but Calvin does hold the slight edge in both).

Calvin and Albion are the top two rebounding clubs in the conference. They're both above average on the offensive and defensive glass, so it will be interesting to see how the actual totals come out.

Albion's super strength has been on the defensive glass while Calvin's is on the offensive glass. But like I said, they've both been exceptional at all forms of rebounding.

Free throw rate is the only stat of the four that has some big disparity. Albion gets to the free throw line far more often than Calvin does, but they also send opponents to the line at a far greater clip. Calvin has the right types of offensive players to take advantage of this. Look for Schnyders and Snikkers to try to get to the hoop and get to the line.

Sure To Be Wrong Prediction
Calvin by 4
Need To Win Level: High
Expected To Win Level: Medium
Massey Prediction: Albion 71, Calvin 69 (46% chance of victory).

Plus/Minus Versus Albion

It's Friday already? How do the days get away from me?

Here's a quick refresher. I'm just looking at who was on the floor for each point for each team. You get a plus for each point your team scores while you're on the court, and you get a minus for each point your opponent scores while you're on the court.

Pretty simple.

Game Chart

Player	(+)	(-)	(+/-)	MIN	(+)/min	(-)/min	(+/-)/min
Brink	21	13	8	15	1.40	0.87	0.53
DeBoer	21	20	1	10	2.10	2.00	0.10
DeYoung	25	31	-6	16	1.56	1.94	-0.38
Fabiyi	7	11	-4	5	1.40	2.20	-0.80
Greene	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Haverdink	14	12	2	8	1.75	1.50	0.25
Kruis	27	14	13	15	1.80	0.93	0.87
Powell	53	21	32	23	2.30	0.91	1.39
Rietema	15	15	0	9	1.67	1.67	0.00
Rodts	43	16	27	18	2.39	0.89	1.50
Salo	48	26	22	19	2.53	1.37	1.16
Schnyders	22	11	11	16	1.38	0.69	0.69
Schuster	53	23	30	20	2.65	1.15	1.50
Snikkers	49	26	23	21	2.33	1.24	1.10
Vallie	7	11	-4	5	1.40	2.20	-0.80
Team	405	250	155	200	2.03	1.25	0.78

This was a fun one to look at. Lots of big plus numbers out there.

Mostly, it looks like the Knights did the majority of their damage with the starters in there.

Season Totals

Player	(+)	(-)	(+/-)	MIN	(+)/min	(-)/min	(+/-)/min
Rodts	815	720	95	422	1.93	1.71	0.23
Snikkers	758	668	90	395	1.92	1.69	0.23
Schuster	712	598	114	362	1.97	1.65	0.31
Powell	684	567	117	360	1.90	1.58	0.33
Brink	639	537	102	321	1.99	1.67	0.32
Schnyders	490	454	36	266	1.84	1.71	0.14
Haverdink	410	422	-12	229	1.79	1.84	-0.05
Kruis	298	293	5	192	1.55	1.53	0.03
DeYoung	273	264	9	152	1.80	1.74	0.06
DeBoer	273	246	27	139	1.96	1.77	0.19
Salo	213	194	19	126	1.69	1.54	0.15
Vallie	30	35	-5	20	1.50	1.75	-0.25
Fabiyi	15	12	3	9	1.67	1.33	0.33
Rietema	15	15	0	9	1.67	1.67	0.00
Greene	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Team	5625	5025	600	3002	1.87	1.67	0.20

As rated by +/-, the top five offensive players (with more than 100 minutes) are Jordan Brink, Brent Schuster, Matt DeBoer, Danny Rodts, and Tom Snikkers. But I'd rather use eFG% or PPWS to gauge individual offensive performance because they are not subjected to as much randomness. Still, I think this "offensive" lineup, while not perfect, passes the initial eye test.

On defense, the five best Calvin players look like Tyler Kruis, Trent Salo, Bryan Powell, Brent Schuster, and Jordan Brink. But you probably don't want a "defensive" lineup containing Salo, Powell, and Brink, so I'd substitute in Tom Snikkers or Danny Rodts for Brink to gain a bit of size.

The plus/minus numbers still aren't perfect, but I think they do line up with what we think about the team.

So, What Time Does The Game Start?

Calvin 81, Albion 50 (box)

Didn't expect that type of a game, but I'll take it all day every day.

Calvin coupled early defensive intensity with efficiency on the offensive end and really seemed to put Albion away before the Britons even realized the game had started.

The scored on each of their first five possessions on 5-7 shooting (with two offensive rebounds) while forcing Albion into 1-3 shooting (one shot was blocked), two turnovers, and no second chances. That made the it a 12-2 game with just over 16 minutes to play in the first half.

The Britons spent the next three or four minutes making a brief stand, but they only cut the lead down to six before the Knights exploded for 15 straight points. There was still six and a half minutes left in the half, but it appeared that Albion lost whatever focus they may have had. The Briton offense turned into chucking up any sort of shot whatsoever which, needless to say, didn't really help them out. The game was effectively over.

Game Chart

Player	%Min	%Shots	eFG%	PPWS	FTr	Ar	TO%	Rb%
Powell	0.58	0.19	0.600	1.20	0.00	0.23	0.00	0.10
Salo	0.48	0.18	1.000	2.00	0.00	0.32	0.20	0.03
Rodts	0.45	0.24	1.000	2.02	0.40	0.26	0.25	0.28
Snikkers	0.53	0.33	0.813	1.68	0.25	0.52	0.10	0.13
Schuster	0.50	0.30	0.929	1.89	0.29	0.13	0.00	0.08
Brink	0.38	0.12	0.000	0.68	1.00	0.21	0.00	0.08
Rietema	0.23	0.10	0.000	1.03	2.00	0.17	0.00	0.06
Haverdink	0.20	0.22	0.000	0.00	0.00	0.19	0.60	0.00
Schnyders	0.40	0.27	0.200	0.72	0.80	0.00	0.42	0.11
Vallie	0.13	0.35	1.000	2.02	0.50	0.00	0.29	0.11
Fabiyi	0.13	0.00	0.000	1.05	0.00	0.00	0.34	0.11
Kruis	0.38	0.06	1.500	2.05	2.00	0.00	0.61	0.08
DeBoer	0.25	0.26	0.833	1.67	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.06
DeYoung	0.40	0.05	0.000	0.00	2.00	0.29	0.00	0.14
Team	1.00	1.00	0.696	1.42	0.50	0.77	0.26	0.55

Calvin turned the ball over too many times, but they still managed a great offensive day (and a win). There goes any chance I had at credibility, right?

David Rietema had his first real action of the season, and I have to say that I was impressed. I hadn't really seen him play in JV last year, but he came into the game and made a few plays on the offensive end. It was a small sample, and I'm not sure if Albion had full guns blazing at that point, but he showed good court vision and awareness of where all of his teammates were. He may never be an elite scorer (then again, what do I know?), but I can definitely see where he could contribute to the team.

Lots of great numbers out there. Danny Rodts had a fantastic day; he was one rebound shy of a double-double.

The rest of the starting five had nice days on offense. Not really enough space to name them all (sure there is: Powell, Salo, Schuster, Snikkers), but well done.

A team eFG% of nearly 0.700? Unreal.

They simply got it done on both ends of the floor. Not much else to add at this point. This one will be fun to look at for +/-.

Oh yeah, hopefully the injury to Brian Haverdink isn't too severe. I'm not positive if it was a knee or an ankle, but he came up limping after making a fantastic play to break up a 2-on-1 Albion fast break. Get well soon.

Other Good News
Ohio Wesleyan defeated #11 Wabash. You may remember the OWU Battling Bishops from the 20-something point shellacking that Calvin gave them in the Tip-off Tournament back in November. They've been playing better as of late (they're on a seven game winning streak), and every win they get helps out Calvin's strength of schedule. Go Bishops!

Hope topped Kalamazoo in overtime. I'm listing this as good news, and many Calvin fans may disagree, but hear me out. If the ultimate goal is making the NCAA tournament, and you don't want Calvin to have to win the conference tournament to get there, then it probably behooves the Knights for Hope to have as good of a record as possible. That is, if we think Calvin is going to meet up with Hope in the MIAA Tournament. You need your schedule to look good if you want an at-large selection into the tournament. I've even thought that it may be best for Calvin if Hope wins the regular season title, but that might be a bit of a stretch, and it's definitely a separate post.

Albion Preview

Game	Eighteen
Who	Albion Britons
Where	Van Noord Arena
When	Wed. -- 7:30 PM
Web Video	Video
Web Audio	Audio
LiveStats	Stats
Tickets	$5, $3

I don't need to tell you that this is a big game, but I will. It's huge. It may be the biggest non-Hope game of the conference season. It's a game the Knights simply have to win if they have aspirations of a third consecutive MIAA championship and a Pool C NCAA Tournament bid.

When We Last Met
Usually Calvin-Albion games are epic battles that turn into fantastic tales second only to the Calvin-Hope lore, but the meeting was as big of a laugher as this series usually sees.

Calvin was tied with Hope at the top of the standings with two games remaining in league play. Calvin fans were prepared for a dogfight with the Britons at (historic) Kresge Gymnasium, but the game wasn't as intense as advertised.

The Knights never trailed in taking a 17 point lead into halftime before cruising to a 12 point victory. But it wasn't really that much of a blowout. The Britons actually cut the Calvin lead to 3 with around two minutes to play, but two consecutive three pointers by the Knights killed the rally and the only Albion threat of the night.

Matchup

Matchup	Calvin	Albion	Adv.
Calvin eFG% vs. Albion DeFG%	0.508	0.475	Albion
Calvin DeFG% vs. Albion eFG%	0.486	0.474	Calvin
Calvin TOr vs. Albion DTOr	0.21	0.20	-
Calvin DTOr vs. Albion TOr	0.18	0.22	-
Calvin ORb% vs. Albion DRb%	0.370	0.716	Calvin
Calvin DRb% vs. Albion ORb%	0.702	0.384	Albion
Calvin FTr vs. Albion DFTr	0.33	0.39	-
Calvin DFTr vs. Albion FTr	0.31	0.49	Albion
Calvin OEff vs. Albion DEff	106.9	97.6	Calvin
Calvin DEff vs. Albion OEff	102.6	102.3	Albion

The statistics look pretty darn similar.

Albion is probably the only team in the MIAA that could be expected to match Calvin's rebounding ability; they've actually been slightly better on the whole year.

As always, turnovers will be the key for the Calvin offense. Albion plays good defense, so possessions will be at a premium. When Calvin takes care of the ball, offensive success usually follows. The Knights have had eight games in which they've turned the ball over on fewer than 20% of their possessions. In those games, they've had an average offensive efficiency rating of 114.0. In the nine games in which they've been above 20% in turnover rate, they've only managed an average offensive efficiency rating of 100.9. The difference between these efficiency numbers is equivalent to just over 9 points in a 70 possession game.

Nine points will usually make a difference.

Oh yeah, and they're 3-6 when they turn it over more than 20% of the time and 6-2 when they don't.

Take care of the ball please.

And the keys to defense will be to contain JC Cruse, and to prevent open three point looks. Albion's usually not afraid to let a three ball fly, and they'll knock down plenty of them.

Sure To Be Wrong Prediction
Calvin by 3
Need to win level: High
Expected to win level: Medium
Massey Prediction: Calvin 73, Albion 69 (62% chance of victory)