Previewing the 2021-22 MIAA Season

All eight MIAA men's basketball teams have completed their non-conference schedules and will move to conference play beginning on January 5.

Coming into the season, Trine was the heavy favorite after returning nearly everyone from the team that went 17-1 (5-0 MIAA) and won the conference tournament in the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season. That expectation has perhaps shifted after a non-conference season that saw Trine lose four games (and record a few uncomfortable wins against inferior competition).

Calvin has seemingly supplanted the Thunder as the league favorite as league play begins on Wednesday. Here's a look at where each team stands in the efficiency ratings I run for all of Division III men's basketball:

 

D3 Rank	Team	AdjEM	AdjO	AdjD
25	Calvin	22.4	113.8	91.5
72	Albion	13.8	104.7	90.9
70	Trine	14.0	101.4	87.5
77	Hope	12.6	108.5	95.9
167	Olivet	3.0	96.8	93.8
258	Kalamazoo	-3.7	101.3	105.0
267	Adrian	-4.5	97.2	101.7
297	Alma	-8.1	96.6	104.6

A quick explainer for those who haven't followed my ratings: Adjusted efficiency margin is the difference between a team's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings (the 'adjusted' means the calculations are iterated to account for quality of opponent). This is the number of points they'd be expected to outscore an average D3 team in 100 possessions. The offensive rating (AdjO) is how many points they'd be expected to score (per 100 possessions) and the defensive rating (AdjD) is how many points they'd be expected to give up (per 100 possessions).

So based on results* to date, we have something like four tiers of teams forming in the MIAA. Calvin is alone in tier 1 as a (fringe) Top-25 caliber team, Albion, Trine, and Hope are bunched up very tightly in tier 2, Olivet is in their own tier a bit above D3 average, and Kalamazoo, Adrian, and Alma are in the fourth tier a bit below average.

*I only calculate data from D3 vs. D3 games so nothing against D1, D1, or NAIA is included here.

The cool thing about these efficiency ratings is that we can use them to predict scores for individual matchups. If we add in a few points for home court advantage, we can predict the outcome of any game. So, for example, my computer favors Calvin over Albion in Wednesday's conference opener 74-72 and gives Calvin a 59% chance of winning the game. If I run these percentages for all 56 conference games, I get the following expected standings:

 

Team	Expected Wins	Expected Losses	Expected PF	Expected PA
Calvin	11.8	2.2	1148	957
Albion	9.5	4.5	1061	969
Trine	9.5	4.5	1000	910
Hope	9.1	4.9	1078	1001
Olivet	6.0	8.0	1060	1098
Kalamazoo	4.0	10.0	967	1076
Adrian	3.4	10.6	1065	1203
Alma	2.7	11.3	960	1124

Now, obviously, the standings won't end up exactly like this. Someone (Olivet) is going to win some games they're not supposed to win and we'll likely end up with more bunching towards the middle as teams get familiar with each other. But that's the way the computer sees the league shaping up before we play the games.

For Calvin in particular, they're going to have to make hay the first time through the league schedule as they have Hope, Trine, and Olivet at home and only Albion on the road of the other MIAA teams with a positive adjusted efficiency margin. They'll really need to be 5-2 (or preferably better) in those first seven games to feel really good about their chances to win the regular season conference title.

Looking ahead to the NCAA Tournament, the MIAA is most probably a one-bid league. It's not likely that the tournament runner up will have the resume required to receive an at-large bid. Most of the league is exiting non-conference play with a strong strength of schedule, but the league's overall non-conference record means those SOS numbers are going to decrease as we go.

I see Calvin, Hope, Albion, and Trine all staying a fair bit above the .500 strength-of-schedule Mendoza line that is the de facto requirement for NCAA Tournament selection, but not so far above that they'll be a strong contender unless they're also touting winning percentages in the .850 range (or so). That's... probably not going to happen. The best case for an at-large berth from the MIAA is for one of these teams to go 12-2 or 13-1 in conference play and then lose in the conference tournament final, and even that might not be enough to escape the bubble.

Turning our attention to opening night on Wednesday, it looks like we have a great slate of competitive games. Here's what my score predictor expects:

Away		Home		Home %	Away%	Pace	Line	Total
Olivet	86	Adrian	83	40%	60%	89	+3.0	169.5
Trine	66	Hope	68	60%	40%	69	-3.0	134.0
Kalamazoo	72	Alma	73	53%	47%	69	-1.0	145.0
Calvin	74	Albion	72	41%	59%	72	+2.5	146.0

All four games are 60%-40% or tighter and none of the expected score differentials are wider than one possession. The winners -- particularly of Trine-Hope and Calvin-Albion will have a leg up in the conference race. It should be a good night of basketball. 

Stats-and-More Versus Olivet

Win Expectancy

Calvin’s win expectancy jumped from 50% (where all games start) to 71% just ten seconds into the game as Calvin took a 2-0 lead on a Tom Snikkers field goal. It wouldn’t dip below 70% for the rest of the game.

This was a textbook wire-to-wire beat down, with the win effectively secured with five minutes still to play in the first half. There was really no point in this game in which Olivet made an actual run at competitiveness. Their best stretch of multi-possession sustained play might have been keeping the Calvin lead right around seven from the 13:09 mark to the 9:44 mark in the first half.

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And Boom Goes the Dynamite

Calvin 93, Olivet 65 (box score)

The storyline for this game was that Olivet was indeed quite bad. I would have loved to see Calvin's defense lock down Olivet in the second half instead of allowing 38 points, but Coach Vande Streek was clearly spreading the minutes around, so it's definitely understandable.

It was a wonderful opportunity for Daniel Stout (16 minutes) and Tyler Dykstra (17 minutes) to get some extended playing time. I particularly enjoyed seeing Dykstra, Stout, and Tyler Kruis all on the court at the same time. That's a combination that could cause some havoc in this league for a good couple of years. We also saw some nice things out of Nate Van Eck, who chipped in eight points in a rare display of scoring touch.

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Olivet Preview

	Game Eighteen (8-9, 3-3)
Who	Olivet Comets (3-14, 1-5)
Where	Van Noord Arena
When	Wednesday, January 25 -- 8:00 PM
Audio	Stretch Internet
Video	Stretch Internet, MIAA Gameday
Stats	Live Stats, MIAA Gameday

When We Last Met
Olivet (un)officially ended Calvin’s hopes for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid last year with a 71-69 victory over the Knights at the Cutler Events Center in lovely Olivet, Michigan in early February. Calvin allowed Olivet to mount a nine point lead with six or seven minutes left in the game, and although the Knights fought to cut the lead to a single possession a couple of times in the final minute, they never possessed the ball with an opportunity to tie or take the lead.

Michael McClary lead the Comets with 29 points and 9 rebounds. Tom Snikkers and Danny Rodts each recorded a double-double for Calvin with 19-and-10 and 18-and-10 (points-and-rebounds) respectively. As a team, the Knights made just 3 of their 18 three point attempts.

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At Least The Olivet Comets Have One Good Player

The popular opinion was that the Olivet Comets were going to struggle this year. They were losing possibly the most dominant player the MIAA had seen in a decade, Michael McClary, along with solid contributors Nathan Jennings and Joe Post (and they had already lost Andre Evans in the middle of the season). To me, it seemed like they had little hope of finishing above seventh place in the league this year.

But, as we all know, things don’t always pan out the way we think they will.

But, in this case, it looks like it did. It’s exactly as we thought.

The mass departure of the above players left the Comets with a severe lack of talent. Only Junior Alvino Ashley (a transfer from Lansing Community College) has stepped up to play like a bona fide starter. Senior Jaren Edsall is playing well enough to contribute as a starter, but he’s being counted on to be a major factor (and he’s just not that).

Here’s a look at the Olivet Comets (as described by Player Efficiency Rating).

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The Replacements



Yes Woody, Seniors will have to be replaced.


Zac and I (and our wives, and my child) drove out to Minneapolis for Memorial weekend, so we had lots of time to discuss sports (mostly Tigers baseball and Calvin hoops). We left Friday after work (with an expected 3:00 AM (EST) arrival time, so we needed to keep conversation going to ensure the driver stayed alert.

Anyway, one of the topics that came up was the outlook for the 2012 MIAA season. Who will be the favorite? Who’s going to fill out the top four? We couldn’t really decide, so we played a rousing game of “better or worse”. Our reactions for each teams was as follows:

Adrian: lots of young players – “better”.
Albion: losing two starters – perhaps “marginally worse”.
Alma: can’t get much worse – “even”.
Calvin: losing good players, but there’s a core of young talent – a biased “marginally better”.
Hope: losing Bowser, Dickerson, and Tanis – “worse”.
Kalamazoo: losing Ryan Clark – “worse”
Olivet: losing “everyone” – “much worse”
Trine: lots of young players – “better”

I’m not saying that this is accurate, but that’s what the gut told us without looking at rosters or playing time or scoring averages. We eventually figured the standings would look something like this:

1 – Calvin – The slight favorite, but not a lock.
2 – Hope – still a very good team. Could win the league or end up third.
3 – Adrian – Will be top three. Could challenge the top two, but they were “only” 7-7 last year.
4 – Albion – Because they’re always in the top four.
5 – Trine – They have enough young players to make a jump in the standings.
6 – Kalamazoo – Hard to replace Ryan Clark, but they won’t be at the bottom.
7 – Olivet – It’s going to be a long year. Losing a ton of talent.
8 – Alma – Still bad.

But I wanted to get a real look at who’s staying, and who’s leaving to get a better of idea of how difficult it will actually be for each team to find replacements. So I crunched some numbers.

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Waiving Goodbye To Pool C

Olivet 71, Calvin 69 (box)

The loss means Calvin falls into a three way tie for second place in the MIAA standing, but maybe more importantly for that, Calvin probably doesn't have much of a shot at an at-large NCAA Tournament bid any longer.

Calvin now sits at 8-4 in-region (0.667 win percentage), so their maximum 'Pool C'
(at large) record would be 14-5 (0.737). You usually want to be on the other side of 0.750 to have a strong chance for Pool C selection.

That being said, the chances they get selected certainly isn't going to be zero, but any number of conference tournament upsets would likely make it so. So, for all intents and purposes, it's win the MIAA tournament or bust.

But back to this weekend's heart breaker. The game was lost over a seven minute stretch in the second half. Calvin had come out of the locker room for the second half and scored the first six points of the second half, but Olivet ripped off a 19-4 run to take a nine point lead that would never be relinquished.

During that run, the Comets were 9-12 from the floor and the Knights were 2-6 with five turnovers.

Game Chart

Player	%Min	%Shots	eFG%	PPWS	FTr	Ar	TO%	Rb%
Powell	0.40	0.21	0.300	0.67	0.40	0.22	0.14	0.06
Salo	0.43	0.12	0.000	0.00	0.00	0.19	0.00	0.06
Rodts	0.70	0.22	0.778	1.65	0.44	0.09	0.16	0.18
Snikkers	0.68	0.38	0.467	1.01	0.53	0.30	0.18	0.18
Schuster	0.70	0.22	0.333	0.74	0.11	0.07	0.00	0.14
Brink	0.53	0.16	0.400	1.01	0.80	0.09	0.00	0.07
Haverdink	0.28	0.06	0.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.50	0.00
Schnyders	0.43	0.24	0.500	1.15	0.33	0.00	0.00	0.06
Kruis	0.55	0.12	0.250	0.45	0.25	0.00	0.18	0.04
DeBoer	0.20	0.08	1.000	2.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
DeYoung	0.13	0.14	1.000	2.00	0.00	0.00	0.50	0.00
Total	1.00	1.00	0.449	0.99	0.37	0.40	0.15	0.51

I don't really want to call any individuals out, and you certainly can't say that Danny Rodts didn't have a good game, but I'd like to see him be more of a go-to guy on offense. He's shooting only about 20% of the team's shots while he's on the floor, but a player of his caliber should be shooting the ball more often. He's a fantastic shooter, but he usually doesn't like to let a three ball fly unless he's almost wide open. I would like to see him use his 6-6 height to try to shoot over his defender more often.

Calvin won the rebounding battle by one rebound, but they didn't do a good enough job on the defensive glass. Olivet picked up too many offensive boards, and they were particularly good at converting these second-chance opportunities.

Calvin relies pretty heavily on the three point shot, and when they don't fall, they don't win.

Olivet Preview

Game	Twenty One
Who	Olivet Comets
Where	Olivet, MI
When	Saturday -- 3:00 PM
Web Video	none
Web Audio	Audio
LiveStats	Stats
Directions	Google Maps

When We Last Met
Calvin topped the Comets by four points at Van Noord Arena, but it was never a particularly close game. The Knights lead the entire way, taking a nine point lead into the final minute and a half.

Olivet hit a few shots (including a rare three point heave by Michael McClary), and the Knights missed a few free throws, so the game ended up looking close. But really, Olivet never had the ball with a chance to take the lead or even tie in that final minute.

McClary and Nathan Jennings lead the Comets with 22 points apiece, but they combined for only 18-44 shooting (40.9%), so it wasn't as if they weer shredding the Calvin defense.

Matchup

Matchup	Calvin	Olivet	Adv.
Calvin eFG% vs. Olivet DeFG%	0.516	0.489	-
Calvin DeFG% vs. Olivet eFG%	0.482	0.454	Calvin
Calvin TOr vs. Olivet DTOr	0.21	0.18	-
Calvin DTOr vs. Olivet TOr	0.21	0.15	Olivet
Calvin ORb% vs. Olivet DRb%	0.369	0.707	Calvin
Calvin DRb% vs. Olivet ORb%	0.700	0.297	Calvin
Calvin FTr vs. Olivet DFTr	0.33	0.38	-
Calvin DFTr vs. Olivet FTr	0.30	0.40	-
Calvin OEff vs. Olivet DEff	107.5	102.3	Calvin
Calvin DEff vs. Olivet OEff	101.9	101.9	Olivet

To say the Comets are missing Andre Evans (who is no longer with the team) would be a massive understatement. Evans was Olivet's most credible three point threat, and taking him away leaves the team incredibly one-dimensional. McClary's obviously still a tremendous player, but he becomes infinitely easier to defend when you don't have to worry about him passing off to an open three point shooter. Jaren Edsall is probably the only one on the team that would be willing and able to shoot a three pointer with regularity.

Sure To Be Wrong Prediction
Calvin by 5
Need to win level: High
Expected to win level: Medium High
Massey Prediction: Calvin 76, Olivet 75 (53% chance of victory)

Beating The Comets WIth A Much Better Effort

Calvin 78, Olivet 74

But it wasn't quite that close. Necessarily. The Knights seemed to play much of the second half with a lead of 8ish (it fluctuated), and they lead by 11 with 1:35 to play but give the Comets credit for not giving up. The game was never really in doubt, but some dubious free throw shooting (a stretch of 5-9) allowed Olivet to close the gap to two. Jordan Brink put the game away with two freebies with about two seconds on the clock. The Comets were never allowed to possess the ball with only a one-possession deficit.

Calvin really came into the game with a good defensive game plan. Coach Vande Streek elected to use Tyler Kruis (when he was in the game) on Michael McClary, and I have to say, the plan worked magnificently. First of all, it protected Brent Schuster from probably getting into excessive foul trouble. Secondly, it allowed Brent to shift to guard Nathan Jennings and use his length to bother his shots. And third, Tyler was pretty darn good on defense tonight.

He wasn't without help though. Calvin quickly brought the double team with McClary caught the ball, and they often forced him into passing or taking a tough shot.

A quick glance at the box score may not make it look like they defended McClary and Jennings well, as they each scored 22 points, but it took Big Mike 25 shots and Jennings 18 to get their respective points. Both players ended the day with effective shooting percentages right around 42%. Not efficient at all.

Game Chart

Player	%Min	%Shots	eFG%	PPWS	FTr	Ar	TO%	Rb%
Powell	0.63	0.26	0.550	1.10	0.00	0.38	0.00	0.06
Salo	0.63	0.10	0.375	1.01	0.50	0.06	0.00	0.10
Rodts	0.48	0.27	0.625	1.35	0.63	0.00	0.24	0.10
Snikkers	0.70	0.39	0.471	0.97	0.06	0.00	0.17	0.14
Schuster	0.70	0.16	0.714	1.26	0.29	0.00	0.13	0.10
Brink	0.40	0.20	0.500	1.16	0.80	0.00	0.14	0.15
Haverdink	0.28	0.12	0.500	1.36	1.00	0.00	0.40	0.04
Schnyders	0.28	0.41	0.429	0.94	0.14	0.20	0.15	0.13
Kruis	0.48	0.07	0.500	1.00	0.00	0.08	0.00	0.05
DeBoer	0.15	0.00	0.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.08
DeYoung	0.30	0.00	0.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.04
Team	1.00	1.00	0.524	1.11	0.27	0.28	0.19	0.54

I've decided that I like it a lot better with Calvin makes their three pointers than when they miss them.

A tip of the hat goes to Jordan Brink, who showed more assertiveness in trying to score. He wasn't rewarded with his first two drives to the bucket, but they were the types of plays that I think he'll get points on more often than not. He didn't give up though, and later knocked down a triple, a layup, and three free throws.

This is the Bryan Powell that I love. Sure, he jacked up a bad three point attempt or two, but he didn't just settle for the outside shot. He looked to take his man into the lane, and he showed a nice finishing touch. He received some kind rolls, but that's what happens when you're making plays at the rim. And when he wasn't scoring, he was setting his teammates up to score. Five assists and zero turnovers. I think Trent's return may take some pressure off of Bryan as a ball handler, so he doesn't have to dribble around/through defenders as often.

I think all the Knights looked to get into the painted area more often than they have in previous games. Even Brian Haverdink(!) looked to take his guy on the dribble, and his efforts were rewarded with a pair of free throws.

Nice to see Rodts and Schuster combining for 4-8 from distance. That's more like it. I don't know what the deal was on Saturday, but whichever fieldhouse employee set up the rims that day should replaced (just kidding, but seriously, someone else should do it).

The eleven man rotation is too big. Not because you can't play eleven guys, but because Brink and Schnyders can, and should, play more than they did tonight.

Olivet Preview

Game	Fourteen
Who	Olivet
Where	Van Noord Arena
When	Wed. -- 7:30 PM
Web Video	Video
Web Audio	Audio
LiveStats	Stats
Tickets	$5, $3

When We Last Met
It was last year's MIAA tournament semifinal at Van Noord Arena. Olivet had lead the entire way (including a 14 point lead with around 15 minutes to play), but Calvin managed to fight their way back and took their first lead (which they wouldn't relinquish) with 3:21 left in the game. The 63-57 victory sent Calvin on to face Hope in the conference championship game.

Matchup
Calvin and Olivet both enter the game with a 1-1 record in the early going of league play.

Matchup	Calvin	Olivet	Advantage
Calvin eFG% vs. Olivet DeFG%	0.516	0.491	Calvin
Calvin DeFG% vs. Olivet eFG%	0.498	0.458	Calvin
Calvin TO% vs. Olivet DTO%	0.21	0.18	-
Calvin DTO% vs. Olivet TO%	0.19	0.15	Olivet
Calvin ORb% vs. Olivet DRb%	0.364	0.695	Calvin
Calvin DRb% vs. Olivet ORb%	0.709	0.303	Calvin
Calvin FTr vs. Olivet DFTr	0.32	0.40	-
Calvin DFTr vs. Olivet FTr	0.34	0.41	Olivet
Calvin OEff vs. Olivet DEff	107.0	104.4	Calvin
Calvin DEff vs. Olivet OEff	102.5	102.5	Olivet

Calvin again looks to have the statistical edge. It's surprising to me that Olivet isn't a better statistical rebounding team. Michael McClary seems to put up a double-double on a nightly basis, but they must not have much in the way of rebounding after him. Calvin has owned the glass in the last couple of games, and I'll look for that trend to continue.

The key component (as is always the case) is field goal percentage. Olivet's numbers aren't very good (only .458), but they have some guys that are able to score. Obviously McClary is the leader of the bunch, but Nathan Jennings and Andre Evans can both fill it up as well (Jennings working the paint and Evans from outside).

Olivet is a tough type of team to game play against defensively. My theory in almost every case is to not pay any extra attention to the opponents' super star player. You can try to double and triple team McClary, but he'll still score in double figures plus you'll be leaving one of his teammates open. Just play your base defense, and for Calvin that does mean doubling when the player has the ball in the post, but you CANNOT allow the McClary distraction to cause you to be slow rotating back out to the three point line if the ball is kicked out. Open three point shots spell disaster (see also: Kalamazoo, 1-8-2011).

Brent Schuster can't allow himself to get into foul trouble defending McClary. There's a noticeable dip in Calvin's offensive efficiency when he's on the bench, and the Knights can ill afford any sort of dip against the Comets. They're a good team.

Sure To Be Wrong Prediction
Calvin by 4
Need to win level: high
Expected to win level: medium-high
Massey Prediction: Calvin 82 Olivet 77. A 70% chance of a Calvin victory.