Saturday, February 5, 2011

Olivet Preview

GameTwenty One
WhoOlivet Comets
WhereOlivet, MI
WhenSaturday -- 3:00 PM
Web Videonone
Web AudioAudio
LiveStatsStats
DirectionsGoogle Maps



When We Last Met
Calvin topped the Comets by four points at Van Noord Arena, but it was never a particularly close game. The Knights lead the entire way, taking a nine point lead into the final minute and a half.

Olivet hit a few shots (including a rare three point heave by Michael McClary), and the Knights missed a few free throws, so the game ended up looking close. But really, Olivet never had the ball with a chance to take the lead or even tie in that final minute.

McClary and Nathan Jennings lead the Comets with 22 points apiece, but they combined for only 18-44 shooting (40.9%), so it wasn't as if they weer shredding the Calvin defense.

Matchup
MatchupCalvinOlivetAdv.
Calvin eFG% vs. Olivet DeFG%0.5160.489-
Calvin DeFG% vs. Olivet eFG%0.4820.454Calvin
Calvin TOr vs. Olivet DTOr0.210.18-
Calvin DTOr vs. Olivet TOr0.210.15Olivet
Calvin ORb% vs. Olivet DRb%0.3690.707Calvin
Calvin DRb% vs. Olivet ORb%0.7000.297Calvin
Calvin FTr vs. Olivet DFTr0.330.38-
Calvin DFTr vs. Olivet FTr0.300.40-
Calvin OEff vs. Olivet DEff107.5102.3Calvin
Calvin DEff vs. Olivet OEff101.9101.9Olivet

To say the Comets are missing Andre Evans (who is no longer with the team) would be a massive understatement. Evans was Olivet's most credible three point threat, and taking him away leaves the team incredibly one-dimensional. McClary's obviously still a tremendous player, but he becomes infinitely easier to defend when you don't have to worry about him passing off to an open three point shooter. Jaren Edsall is probably the only one on the team that would be willing and able to shoot a three pointer with regularity.

Sure To Be Wrong Prediction
Calvin by 5

Need to win level: High
Expected to win level: Medium High
Massey Prediction: Calvin 76, Olivet 75 (53% chance of victory)

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