Thursday, January 5, 2012

Stats-and-More Versus Adrian

Win Probability


Adrian jumped out to a 3-0 lead, and it was Calvin playing catch up pretty much the rest of the way. Despite taking a brief one-point lead, and cutting the Adrian margin to one possession on a couple of occasions, they were never able to get their win probability above 45%.


Game Chart

Player%Min%ShotseFG%PPWSFTrArTOrRb%eff
Snikkers0.750.330.4000.860.330.090.090.13-
Rietema0.730.050.0000.512.000.180.220.02-
Kruis0.680.200.3750.950.380.080.000.15-
Mast0.630.131.0002.020.400.100.100.08-
DeBoer0.550.090.3330.670.000.000.250.02-
Haverdink0.500.200.0000.000.000.000.000.07-
Powell0.480.670.5001.050.111.040.150.10-
Dykstra0.400.080.0000.000.000.000.500.06-
Van Eck0.300.000.0000.000.000.140.000.08-
Totals1.001.000.4080.900.270.390.170.4988.9
Totals1.001.000.4440.950.290.440.130.51100.7

The students doing the radio broadcast repeatedly remarked about how surprised they were that the “pace of the game was so fast”, as both teams were willing to move the ball in transition, but it only ended up being about a 68 possession game which is pretty close to the average of the two teams. Calvin came in at about 72 possessions per game, and Adrian was playing at around 66 possessions per game.

Calvin’s last three games have been their worst this year three in terms of scoring efficiency; The PPWS number has been at or below 0.92 in each of the three games. As a team, they’re at 0.98 Points Per Weighted Shot on the season, about 0.12 points below where Calvin’s historical average has been – that equates to about eight or nine points per game. (Could have used eight or nine extra points last night.)

Tyler Kruis hasn’t performed well on the offensive end since showing up to the MIAA-CCIW Classic with a knee brace. He was shooting around .600 up to that point (unreasonably high to sustain, I know), but has only shot about .340 since.

Bryan Powell took five three point shots last night, which isn’t good, but four of those were chucked up in the last three minutes when the team was looking for a prayer. On the year, though, Powell is attempting just 1.7 three point shots per game – less than half of last year’s rate of 3.5 per game. He’s not shooting the ball any less frequently, but he is getting those shots a lot closer to the basket, and his scoring efficiency numbers are much better for it. He’s currently sporting a .461 effective field goal percentage and a 0.98 PPWS. Those aren’t great numbers, but they’re up from his .425 eFG% and 0.88 PPWS career marks.

Bryan is also in the middle of a very nice six game stretch. Since the Carthage game, he’s totaled 63 points (10.5 ppg) with a .509 eFG% (1.09 points per weighted shot). He’s had 12 turnovers during this stretch as well, but two per game isn’t all that many for a point guard who’s also giving the team quality offense.

Player Chart

Here's the season "plus/minus" chart for the Knights (sorted by minutes played).

PlayerMING%F%C%Pts ForPts Agnst+/-O-PosD-PosOEffDEffMargin
Snikkers319.66%94%0%561580-1958657495.7101.0-5.3
Kruis288.40%0%100%51450311509505101.099.61.4
DeBoer264.339%61%0%4714561548248197.794.82.9
Rietema247.6100%0%0%4464397440448101.498.03.4
Powell235.3100%0%0%400454-5442941993.2108.4-15.1
Haverdink222.398%2%0%382441-5939740796.2108.4-12.1
DeVries220.60%73%27%385381440539395.196.9-1.9
Mast205.267%33%0%350390-4037037194.6105.1-10.5
Vallie183.70%99%1%326334-8326329100.0101.5-1.5
Dykstra95.80%98%2%155198-4317117490.6113.8-23.1
Van Eck94.90%4%96%156183-2718317985.2102.2-17.0
DeYoung42.80%0%100%5892-34697584.1122.7-38.6
Nadeau20.8100%0%0%3132-1353588.691.4-2.9
Henry8.60%85%15%1517-21315115.4113.32.1
Huizenga0.00%0%0%00000---
Stout0.00%0%0%00000---
Totals2450.0---42504500-504415440596.3102.2-5.9

I prefer to look at the efficiency margin column rather than the "+/-" column because it's a rate stat and not a counting stat. It takes into account how often a player gets subbed in on defense or offense; this difference isn't usually very great, but as we see above, it turns Mickey DeVries out of the positive (+4 points overall) and into the slight negative (-1.9 points per 100 total possessions)

Obviously not having DeVries and Vallie right now is a huge blow. They're two of the six Knights with an individual efficiency margin that's better than the team average.

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