Friday, January 27, 2012

Adrian Preview

Game Nineteen (9-9, 4-3)
WhoAdrian Bulldogs (12-5, 5-2)
WhereVan Noord Arena
WhenWednesday, January 28 -- 3:00 PM                                         
AudioStretch Internet
VideoStretch Internet, MIAA Gameday
StatsLive Stats, MIAA Gameday

When We Last Met
Calvin lost by seven out in Adrian in this season's MIAA opener. It was the first game the Knights played without Mickey DeVries, and just the third game following Mitch Vallie's injury. Both teams shot under 40% for the game, but Adrian lead pretty much the whole way. The real killer for the Knights was their 3-17 performance on three point field goals.

The Bulldogs currently hold a three game winning streak over Calvin, whose last win in the series came back in February of 2010. Freshmen Tom Snikkers and Bryan Powell combined for ten points.

About Adrian
The Bulldogs are all about defense. On Wednesday, they held Albion (admittedly not known for their offense) to just 12 first half points. The Britons did manage 36 points in the second half, but I think the dogs had been called off well before Albion made their mini scoring run.

Offensively, Adrian has a lot in common with Calvin. They don't usually shoot at a very high percentage, their not exceptional at getting to the free throw line, and they'll hold their own on the offensive glass. They usually do a good job at taking care of the ball though, and so their offense rates a few points better than Calvin (although Calvin has been a few points better than the Bulldogs since MIAA play began).

'Four Factors'

This graph is probably about as even as they come. It's going to be small differences that win this game. A couple of rebounds, a turnover, a missed free throw, anything and everything could play a big role in deciding this game.

Predictions and Whatnot
No matter how I figure this game, whether it's by figuring efficiency margins or using the Massey ratings, or whatever, I can't see this game being more than one possession either way.

By using season total efficiency ratings, I come up with Adrian by three points. The Massey Ratings prediction for the game is Calvin by one point. Using efficiency ratings for the MIAA season, I figure Calvin should win by two. Long story short: it should be a close one.

My 'official' prediction is Calvin by two with the scores staying in the low 60's. It's definitely a good game. Hopefully the students and community come out to support the Knights who have a big opportunity to make this game a turning point.

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