Friday, January 21, 2011

Trine Preview


GameSeventeen
WhoTrine Thunder
WhereVan Noord Arena
WhenSat. - 3:30 PM
Web VideoVideo
Web AudioAudio
LiveStatsStats
Tickets$5, $3




When We Last Met
Trine was muddling around the bottom of the standings last year, but they had the Knights on the ropes at the Van Noord Arena in early February. Trine took a two point lead into half time, and even though Calvin quickly regained the advantage in the early goings of the second half, the Thuder didn't go away.

Trine trailed by only three points with 4:45 remaining in the game, but they wouldn't score another basket for over four minutes. Calvin used two baskets and five free throws to stretch the lead to 12, the biggest lead of the game. Trine finally put in a layup with under 30 seconds on the clock, and the game ended with a 73-63 Calvin victory.

Ian Jackson, Scott Rogers, and Wes Weir combined for 54 of Trine's 63 points.

Matchup
MatchupCalvinTrineAdvantage
Calvin eFG% vs. Trine DeFG%0.5140.529Calvin
Calvin DeFG% vs. Trine eFG%0.4900.537Trine
Calvin TOr vs. Trine DTOr0.210.21-
Calvin DTOr vs. Trine TOr0.180.20-
Calvin ORb% vs. Trine DRb%0.3670.672Calvin
Calvin DRb% vs. Trine ORb%0.6970.295Calvin
Calvin FTr vs. Trine DFTr0.320.37-
Calvin DFTr vs. Trine FTr0.310.36Calvin
Calvin OEff vs. Trine DEff107.3104.5Calvin
Calvin DEff vs. Trine OEff103.3104.5Trine

Trine has an offense that can score points in bunches, but their defense is apparently suspect.

They were 8-3 coming into league play, but their schedule was soft, and we're finding out that they're probably not a very good team. Their statistics in the table above can likewise be taken with a few grains of salt.

Trine is excellent at turning possessions into points; it could be another disappoiting day if the Knights get turnover happy.

Calvin would be well served to play a physical style defense on Saturday. Trine as a team shoots only 0.657 from the free throw stripe, and their leading scorer, Ian Jackson, shoots only 0.592. Second leading scorer, Scott Rogers is better, but he still is only hitting at a 0.676 clip. Make the shot difficult and don't worry about fouling. Don't necessarily go into 'hack-a-Shaq' mode (that would be going overboard), but there's no reason to take it easy on these guys.

Sure To Be Wrong Prediction
Calvin by 8
Need to win level: High
Expected to win level: High

Massey Prediction: Calvin 86, Trine 76 (85% chance of victory)

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