Sunday, February 27, 2011

Final 2011 Tournament Projection

Last Updated: 2/27/11

We ranked the teams according to region rather quickly (and slightly differently than my RPI regional rankings). We used a best fit equation that I came up with over the past couple of weeks using the actual regional rankings and the data I have available. Here's the formula:

0.5 x WP + 0.50 x SOS + 0.003 x (# of regionally ranked games) + 0.005 (pct. versus regionally ranked) + 0.05 x d3RPI

So the rankings won't be perfect, but with Pool A team's being taken out of the at-large equation, it should bring teams to the table at about the right spot. It certainly has been a lot closer to the NCAA's rankings than strict RPI ever was.

The 2011 Division III Men's Basketball Tournament will consist of 61 teams. 42 teams will be awarded automatic berths as Conference Champions, these berths are referred to as Pool A.  Pool B is made up of independents and schools belonging to conferences that do not qualify for automatic qualifier status. 1 Pool B berth will be awarded. Schools not awarded Pool A or B tournament berths will be considered for one of the 18 Pool C berths. Pool C berths will be selected on a national basis using regional selection criteria.

The NCAA has defined the following as primary selection criteria:
• Win-loss percentage against regional opponents.
• Strength-of-schedule (only contests versus regional competition).
• In-region head-to-head competition.
• In-region results versus common regional opponents.
• In-region results versus regionally ranked teams.

The NCAA has defined the following as secondary selection criteria if the primary criteria does not result in a decision:
• Out-of-region head-to-head competition.
• Overall Division III win-loss percentage.
• Results versus common non Division III opponents.
• Results versus all Division III ranked teams.
• Overall win-loss percentage.
• Results versus all common opponents.
• Overall DIII strength of schedule.
• Should a committee find that evaluation of a team’s win-loss percentage during 25 percent of the season is applicable, (i.e., end-of-seasn performance), it may adopt such criteria with approval from the championships committee.


So there's 61 bids to dish out.

The first 42 are easy. These are the automatic qualifiers, or Pool A teams.

Pool A (Automatic Qualifiers)
Listed by Conference:

AMCC -- La Roche
ASC -- McMurry
CAC -- St. Marys (Md.)
CC -- Franklin and Marshall
CCC -- Salve Regina
CCIW -- Augustana
CSAC -- Cabrini
CUNYAC -- Medgar Evers
E8 -- Hartwick
GNAC -- Johnson and Wales
HCAC -- Manchester
IIAC -- Luther
LAND -- Scranton
LEC -- Rhode Island College
LL -- Skidmore
MACC -- Alvernia
MACF -- Delaware Valley
MASCAC -- Bridgewater State
MIAA -- Hope
MIAC -- St. Thomas
MWC -- St. Norbert
NAC -- Husson
NATHC -- Benedictine
NCAC -- Wooster
NEAC -- Wells
NECC -- Elms
NESCAC -- Middlebury
NEWMAC -- MIT
NJAC -- New Jersey City
NWC -- Whitworth
OAC -- Marietta
ODAC -- Randolph-Macon
PrAC -- Bethany
SCAC -- Centre
SCIAC -- Redlands
SKY -- SUNY-Purchase
SLIAC -- Webster
SUNYAC -- Buffalo State
UAA -- Rochester
UMAC -- Northwestern (Minn.)
USAC -- North Carolina Wesleyan
WIAC -- UW-Stevens Point

42 down, 19 to go.

The next bid to be handed out is to the top Pool B school. This one wasn't really in doubt for much of the year.

Pool B
Chapman

Finally, the last 18 bids are the true at-large bids. The following teams did not win their conference's automatic berth, but they played well enough during the season to receive Pool C consideration.

Pool C (At-Large Bids)
Listed Alphabetically:
Amherst
Becker
Carleton
Concordia (Wis.)
Gwynedd-Mercy
Hanover
Ithaca
Keystone
Oswego State
Penn State-Behrend
Ramapo
Texas-Dallas
UW-River Falls
Virginia Wesleyan
Western Connecticut
Williams
Wittenberg
WPI

Last Four In: Hanover, Wittenberg, Keystone, Texas-Dallas

These last four in are the teams that I think are most likely to be left out. Hanover and Wittenberg have winning percentages that are on the lower end, but the rest of their resume looks good.

Left on the Board
Northeast - Eastern Connecticut
East - Hobart
Atlantic - St. Joseph's (L.I.)
Middle Atlantic - Wesley
South - N/A (Ferrum)
Great Lakes - Thiel
Midwest - Edgewood
West - Whitman

If one of my projected Pool C winners fails to get selected, they'll probably be replaced with one of these "Left on the Board" teams. These are the top teams in each region that had not yet been selected. The only team not on the list above that may still have a breath of life come Monday is Eastern Mennonite. They have a decent resume, but I don't think they've done much to separate themselves from Texas-Dallas or Ferrum.

Multi-bid Conferences
CSAC (3)
NESCAC (3)
AMCC (2)
ASC (2)
E8 (2)
HCAC (2)
LEC (2)
MIAC (2)
NATHC (2)
NCAC (2)
NECC (2)
NEWMAC (2)
NJAC (2)
ODAC (2)
SCAC (2)
SUNYAC (2)
WIAC (2)

Map

View 2011 "Selection Sunday" in a full screen map

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