Sunday, February 20, 2011

Tournament Projections 2/20/2011

Last Updated: 2/20/11

A few words before the results. We gave the Pool A bids out to the RPI leaders, not necessarily the leaders in the standings.

We ranked the teams according to region rather quickly (and slightly differently than my RPI regional rankings). We used a best fit equation that I came up with over the past couple of weeks using the actual regional rankings and the data I have available. Here's the formula:

0.5 x WP + 0.49 x SOS + 0.002 x (# of regionally ranked games) + 0.005 (pct. versus regionally ranked) + 0.05 x d3RPI

When comparing actual ranking to computed ranking, the trendline formed by using this equation gives a slope of 0.8269 and an r-squared coefficient of 0.8693. Not bad.

The 2011 Division III Men's Basketball Tournament will consist of 61 teams. 42 teams will be awarded automatic berths as Conference Champions, these berths are referred to as Pool A.  Pool B is made up of independents and schools belonging to conferences that do not qualify for automatic qualifier status. 1 Pool B berth will be awarded. Schools not awarded Pool A or B tournament berths will be considered for one of the 18 Pool C berths. Pool C berths will be selected on a national basis using regional selection criteria.

Keep in mind things will still change a lot. This is just a snapshot in time and should only be used for entertainment purposes.

The NCAA has defined the following as primary selection criteria:
• Win-loss percentage against regional opponents.
• Strength-of-schedule (only contests versus regional competition).
• In-region head-to-head competition.
• In-region results versus common regional opponents.
• In-region results versus regionally ranked teams.

The NCAA has defined the following as secondary selection criteria if the primary criteria does not result in a decision:
• Out-of-region head-to-head competition.
• Overall Division III win-loss percentage.
• Results versus common non Division III opponents.
• Results versus all Division III ranked teams.
• Overall win-loss percentage.
• Results versus all common opponents.
• Overall DIII strength of schedule.
• Should a committee find that evaluation of a team’s win-loss percentage during 25 percent of the season is applicable, (i.e., end-of-seasn performance), it may adopt such criteria with approval from the championships committee.

Pool A (Automatic Qualifiers)
Listed by Conference:

AMCC -- La Roche
ASC -- McMurry
CAC -- St. Marys (Md.)
CC -- Franklin and Marshall
CCC -- Roger Williams
CCIW -- Augustana
CSAC -- Cabrini
CUNYAC -- Baruch
E8 -- Ithaca
GNAC -- St. Josephs (Maine)
HCAC -- Manchester
IIAC -- Luther
LAND -- Scranton
LEC -- Western Connecticut
MACC -- Alvernia
MACF -- DeSales
MASCAC -- Salem State
MIAA -- Hope
MIAC -- St. Thomas
MWC -- St. Norbert
NAC -- Husson
NATHC -- Concordia (Wis.)
NCAC -- Wooster
NEAC -- Penn State-Harrisburg
NECC -- Becker
NESCAC -- Williams
NJAC -- Ramapo
NWC -- Whitworth
OAC -- Marietta
ODAC -- Randolph-Macon
PrAC -- Thiel
SCAC -- Centre
SCIAC -- Redlands
SKY -- SUNY-Purchase
SLIAC -- Webster
SUNYAC -- Oswego State
UAA -- Rochester
UMAC -- Northwestern (Minn.)
USAC -- North Carolina Wesleyan
WIAC -- UW-Stevens Point

Pool B

Pool C (At-Large Bids)
Listed Alphabetically:
Eastern Mennonite
Penn State-Behrend
Rhode Island College
UW-River Falls
Virginia Wesleyan

Last Four In: Ferrum, Eastern Mennonite, Stevens, Wittenberg

Left on the Board
Northeast - Elms
East - Medaille
Atlantic - St. Joseph's (L.I.)
Middle Atlantic - Wesley
South - Emory
Great Lakes -
Midwest - Benedictine
West - Whitman

Multi-bid Conferences
CSAC (3)
NCAC (3)
ODAC (3)
AMCC (2)
ASC (2)
E8 (2)
HCAC (2)
LEC (2)
LL (2)
MIAC (2)
NJAC (2)
USAC (2)
WIAC (2)


View Tournament Projection in a full screen map


  1. Good stuff. Front page of stuff. :)

  2. Thanks Pat!

    And instantly we have the most hits we've ever had in a day!