MY RANKING METHOD HAS CHANGED.
Instead of simply ranking by RPI, I'm now using a formula that I came up with that has matched the last two sets of regional rankings fairly well. It doesn't always pick the perfect order, but it usually gets the right teams, and it usually puts them in a similar order. Not perfect, but pretty good for a "dummy" ranking system (without any human adjustment).
The formula is this:
0.5 x WP + 0.49 x SOS + 0.002 x (# of regionally ranked games) + 0.005 (pct. versus regionally ranked) + 0.05 x d3RPI
When comparing actual ranking to computed ranking, the trendline formed by using this equation gives a slope of 0.8269 and an r-squared coefficient of 0.8693. Not bad.
You may notice that the 'SOS' and 'RPI' columns are noted 'wSOS' and 'wRPI'. This is to signify that these numbers are calculated as weighted numbers (using the OWP and OOWP adjustments as described in the NCAA handbook).
Keep in mind that these rankings are really just a starting point. I don't adjust the rankings to account for head-to-head matchups or common opponents or anything, so feel free to adjust as you see fit.
I'm handing out the 'A' bid to the team with the highest RPI rating (counting all D3 games).
When the official rankings come out on Wednesdays, the NCAA will have ranked three fewer teams per region. I like to 'rank' more than they do so that we can get a picture of who might also be in the mix (not implying that my list is complete).
Enjoy.
Through games of 2/20/2011.
| Reg. | Rank | Team | Conference | WP | wSOS | wRPI | Nat. | Pool | Status | REG | D3 | vRRO | OVR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 1 | Williams | NESCAC | 0.957 | 0.576 | 0.671 | 1 | A | C | 22-1 | 23-1 | 5-1 | 24-1 |
| NE | 2 | Middlebury | NESCAC | 0.952 | 0.515 | 0.625 | 3 | C | 1 | 20-1 | 22-1 | 2-1 | 23-1 |
| NE | 3 | WPI | NEWMAC | 0.875 | 0.540 | 0.624 | 8 | A | C | 21-3 | 21-3 | 4-2 | 21-4 |
| NE | 4 | Becker | NECC | 0.880 | 0.518 | 0.609 | 11 | A | C | 22-3 | 22-3 | 4-1 | 22-3 |
| NE | 5 | Amherst | NESCAC | 0.913 | 0.451 | 0.567 | 16 | C | 3 | 21-2 | 21-2 | 4-2 | 22-2 |
| NE | 6 | Western Connecticut | LEC | 0.833 | 0.532 | 0.608 | 19 | A | wC | 20-4 | 21-4 | 4-1 | 21-4 |
| NE | 7 | Rhode Island College | LEC | 0.708 | 0.593 | 0.622 | 32 | C | 9 | 17-7 | 17-7 | 3-3 | 17-7 |
| NE | 8 | Elms | NECC | 0.727 | 0.515 | 0.568 | 50 | C | 23 | 16-6 | 18-7 | 1-4 | 18-7 |
| NE | 9 | Salem State | MASCAC | 0.760 | 0.446 | 0.525 | 70 | A | 19-6 | 19-6 | 1-3 | 19-6 | |
| NE | 10 | St. Josephs (Maine) | GNAC | 0.750 | 0.468 | 0.539 | 77 | A | 18-6 | 18-6 | 0-1 | 18-7 | |
| NE | 11 | Husson | NAC | 0.783 | 0.432 | 0.519 | 79 | A | 18-5 | 18-6 | 0-1 | 19-6 | |
| NE | 12 | Eastern Connecticut | LEC | 0.682 | 0.509 | 0.552 | 82 | C | 45 | 15-7 | 16-8 | 0-5 | 17-8 |
| NE | 13 | Roger Williams | CCC | 0.680 | 0.507 | 0.550 | 92 | A | 17-8 | 17-8 | 1-1 | 17-8 | |
| NE | 14 | Brandeis | UAA | 0.667 | 0.508 | 0.548 | 95 | C | 54 | 16-8 | 16-8 | 1-4 | 16-8 | Reg. | Rank | Team | Conference | WP | wSOS | wRPI | Nat. | Pool | Status | REG | D3 | vRRO | OVR |
| EA | 1 | Oswego State | SUNYAC | 0.880 | 0.502 | 0.597 | 15 | A | C | 22-3 | 22-3 | 3-1 | 22-3 |
| EA | 2 | Ithaca | E8 | 0.792 | 0.555 | 0.614 | 20 | A | wC | 19-5 | 20-5 | 4-2 | 20-5 |
| EA | 3 | Rochester | UAA | 0.864 | 0.482 | 0.578 | 21 | A | wC | 19-3 | 20-4 | 4-1 | 20-4 |
| EA | 4 | Hobart | LL | 0.792 | 0.524 | 0.591 | 33 | C | 10 | 19-5 | 19-6 | 1-2 | 19-6 |
| EA | 5 | Stevens | E8 | 0.760 | 0.519 | 0.579 | 43 | C | 17 | 19-6 | 19-6 | 2-2 | 19-6 |
| EA | 6 | Medaille | AMCC | 0.792 | 0.456 | 0.540 | 49 | C | 22 | 19-5 | 19-6 | 1-3 | 19-6 |
| EA | 7 | Buffalo State | SUNYAC | 0.714 | 0.516 | 0.566 | 60 | C | 29 | 15-6 | 17-6 | 1-3 | 18-6 |
| EA | 8 | RPI | LL | 0.682 | 0.534 | 0.571 | 63 | A | 15-7 | 15-7 | 1-4 | 17-7 | |
| EA | 9 | Plattsburgh State | SUNYAC | 0.714 | 0.506 | 0.558 | 69 | C | 36 | 15-6 | 16-9 | 0-2 | 16-9 | Reg. | Rank | Team | Conference | WP | wSOS | wRPI | Nat. | Pool | Status | REG | D3 | vRRO | OVR |
| AT | 1 | Ramapo | NJAC | 0.864 | 0.515 | 0.602 | 17 | A | C | 19-3 | 20-4 | 2-1 | 20-5 |
| AT | 2 | SUNY-Purchase | SKY | 0.840 | 0.488 | 0.576 | 26 | A | wC | 21-4 | 21-4 | 3-2 | 21-4 |
| AT | 3 | Kean | NJAC | 0.773 | 0.521 | 0.584 | 34 | C | 11 | 17-5 | 18-6 | 4-1 | 18-7 |
| AT | 4 | St. Josephs (L.I.) | SKY | 0.783 | 0.456 | 0.537 | 52 | C | 24 | 18-5 | 19-5 | 2-3 | 20-5 |
| AT | 5 | Rutgers-Newark | NJAC | 0.708 | 0.500 | 0.552 | 66 | C | 34 | 17-7 | 17-7 | 2-3 | 17-7 |
| AT | 6 | Mount St. Mary | SKY | 0.708 | 0.493 | 0.547 | 75 | C | 40 | 17-7 | 18-7 | 2-3 | 18-7 |
| AT | 7 | Montclair State | NJAC | 0.650 | 0.554 | 0.578 | 76 | C | 41 | 13-7 | 16-7 | 1-3 | 19-7 |
| AT | 8 | Farmingdale State | SKY | 0.652 | 0.516 | 0.550 | 89 | C | 50 | 15-8 | 16-8 | 3-4 | 16-9 | Reg. | Rank | Team | Conference | WP | wSOS | wRPI | Nat. | Pool | Status | REG | D3 | vRRO | OVR |
| MA | 1 | La Roche | AMCC | 0.917 | 0.473 | 0.584 | 12 | A | C | 22-2 | 22-2 | 3-2 | 23-2 |
| MA | 2 | St. Marys (Md.) | CAC | 0.857 | 0.486 | 0.579 | 23 | A | wC | 18-3 | 20-4 | 2-1 | 20-5 |
| MA | 3 | Cabrini | CSAC | 0.800 | 0.516 | 0.587 | 29 | A | wC | 20-5 | 20-5 | 4-0 | 20-5 |
| MA | 4 | Gwynedd-Mercy | CSAC | 0.826 | 0.493 | 0.576 | 30 | C | 8 | 19-4 | 19-4 | 1-3 | 20-5 |
| MA | 5 | Keystone | CSAC | 0.808 | 0.479 | 0.561 | 36 | C | 12 | 21-5 | 21-5 | 3-3 | 21-5 |
| MA | 6 | Wesley | CAC | 0.762 | 0.509 | 0.572 | 45 | C | 19 | 16-5 | 16-9 | 1-2 | 16-9 |
| MA | 7 | Franklin and Marshall | CC | 0.783 | 0.476 | 0.552 | 48 | A | bub | 18-5 | 20-5 | 0-2 | 20-5 |
| MA | 8 | Scranton | LAND | 0.773 | 0.468 | 0.544 | 53 | A | bub | 17-5 | 17-5 | 2-1 | 18-5 |
| MA | 9 | Lebanon Valley | MACC | 0.739 | 0.501 | 0.561 | 57 | C | 27 | 17-6 | 19-6 | 1-1 | 19-6 |
| MA | 10 | Alvernia | MACC | 0.714 | 0.495 | 0.550 | 67 | A | 15-6 | 15-6 | 1-3 | 16-6 | |
| MA | 11 | DeSales | MACF | 0.696 | 0.527 | 0.569 | 71 | A | 16-7 | 16-7 | 0-1 | 18-7 | |
| MA | 12 | York (Pa.) | CAC | 0.652 | 0.492 | 0.532 | 104 | C | 62 | 15-8 | 15-8 | 5-2 | 17-8 | Reg. | Rank | Team | Conference | WP | wSOS | wRPI | Nat. | Pool | Status | REG | D3 | vRRO | OVR |
| SO | 1 | Virginia Wesleyan | ODAC | 0.870 | 0.511 | 0.600 | 13 | C | 2 | 20-3 | 20-3 | 4-1 | 22-3 |
| SO | 2 | Randolph-Macon | ODAC | 0.833 | 0.549 | 0.620 | 14 | A | C | 20-4 | 21-4 | 2-3 | 21-4 |
| SO | 3 | Texas-Dallas | ASC | 0.826 | 0.501 | 0.582 | 28 | C | 7 | 19-4 | 20-4 | 2-1 | 20-4 |
| SO | 4 | Birmingham-Southern | SCAC | 0.857 | 0.451 | 0.553 | 35 | N/A | 18-3 | 20-3 | 1-1 | 21-3 | |
| SO | 5 | Ferrum | USAC | 0.818 | 0.477 | 0.562 | 38 | C | 14 | 18-4 | 20-4 | 1-2 | 21-4 |
| SO | 6 | North Carolina Wesleyan | USAC | 0.778 | 0.513 | 0.579 | 39 | A | wC | 14-4 | 16-4 | 1-2 | 19-6 |
| SO | 7 | Eastern Mennonite | ODAC | 0.789 | 0.489 | 0.564 | 41 | C | 15 | 15-4 | 16-4 | 2-2 | 21-4 |
| SO | 8 | Emory | UAA | 0.783 | 0.468 | 0.547 | 47 | C | 21 | 18-5 | 19-5 | 1-2 | 19-5 |
| SO | 9 | McMurry | ASC | 0.739 | 0.504 | 0.562 | 51 | A | bub | 17-6 | 17-6 | 2-2 | 18-7 |
| SO | 10 | Mary Hardin-Baylor | ASC | 0.760 | 0.481 | 0.551 | 54 | C | 25 | 19-6 | 19-6 | 2-1 | 19-6 |
| SO | 11 | Centre | SCAC | 0.762 | 0.485 | 0.554 | 58 | A | bub | 16-5 | 17-5 | 0-1 | 18-5 | Reg. | Rank | Team | Conference | WP | wSOS | wRPI | Nat. | Pool | Status | REG | D3 | vRRO | OVR |
| GL | 1 | Wooster | NCAC | 0.909 | 0.504 | 0.605 | 9 | A | C | 20-2 | 21-2 | 3-2 | 23-2 |
| GL | 2 | Hope | MIAA | 0.882 | 0.518 | 0.609 | 18 | A | C | 15-2 | 15-3 | 0-0 | 19-6 |
| GL | 3 | Thiel | PrAC | 0.833 | 0.516 | 0.595 | 24 | A | wC | 15-3 | 15-3 | 1-0 | 18-6 |
| GL | 4 | Penn State-Behrend | AMCC | 0.880 | 0.447 | 0.556 | 27 | C | 6 | 22-3 | 22-3 | 3-2 | 22-3 |
| GL | 5 | Marietta | OAC | 0.864 | 0.470 | 0.569 | 31 | A | wC | 19-3 | 21-3 | 0-0 | 22-3 |
| GL | 6 | Wabash | NCAC | 0.783 | 0.503 | 0.573 | 37 | C | 13 | 18-5 | 18-5 | 4-2 | 19-5 |
| GL | 7 | Wittenberg | NCAC | 0.737 | 0.534 | 0.585 | 44 | C | 18 | 14-5 | 16-6 | 2-2 | 17-7 |
| GL | 8 | Bethany | PrAC | 0.720 | 0.495 | 0.551 | 73 | C | 38 | 18-7 | 18-7 | 0-3 | 18-7 |
| GL | 9 | Calvin | MIAA | 0.688 | 0.514 | 0.557 | 81 | C | 44 | 11-5 | 11-8 | 1-1 | 14-12 | Reg. | Rank | Team | Conference | WP | wSOS | wRPI | Nat. | Pool | Status | REG | D3 | vRRO | OVR |
| MW | 1 | Concordia (Wis.) | NATHC | 0.909 | 0.524 | 0.620 | 7 | A | C | 20-2 | 20-2 | 3-0 | 22-3 |
| MW | 2 | Augustana | CCIW | 0.913 | 0.503 | 0.605 | 10 | A | C | 21-2 | 21-2 | 3-0 | 22-2 |
| MW | 3 | Manchester | HCAC | 0.783 | 0.500 | 0.571 | 40 | A | wC | 18-5 | 18-5 | 2-2 | 19-6 |
| MW | 4 | Hanover | HCAC | 0.739 | 0.531 | 0.583 | 42 | C | 16 | 17-6 | 18-6 | 3-3 | 18-6 |
| MW | 5 | St. Norbert | MWC | 0.783 | 0.472 | 0.550 | 55 | A | bub | 18-5 | 18-5 | 0-1 | 18-5 |
| MW | 6 | Benedictine | NATHC | 0.739 | 0.483 | 0.547 | 59 | C | 28 | 17-6 | 18-6 | 1-5 | 18-7 |
| MW | 7 | Anderson | HCAC | 0.682 | 0.535 | 0.572 | 61 | C | 30 | 15-7 | 17-7 | 2-4 | 17-8 |
| MW | 8 | Milwaukee Engineering | NATHC | 0.750 | 0.481 | 0.548 | 62 | C | 31 | 18-6 | 19-6 | 1-2 | 19-6 |
| MW | 9 | North Central (Ill.) | CCIW | 0.636 | 0.562 | 0.581 | 68 | C | 35 | 14-8 | 15-9 | 3-3 | 15-10 |
| MW | 10 | Illinois Wesleyan | CCIW | 0.696 | 0.527 | 0.569 | 72 | C | 37 | 16-7 | 17-7 | 0-1 | 17-7 |
| MW | 11 | Edgewood | NATHC | 0.696 | 0.509 | 0.555 | 74 | C | 39 | 16-7 | 16-7 | 1-4 | 16-9 | Reg. | Rank | Team | Conference | WP | wSOS | wRPI | Nat. | Pool | Status | REG | D3 | vRRO | OVR |
| WE | 1 | Whitworth | NWC | 0.960 | 0.508 | 0.621 | 2 | A | C | 24-1 | 24-1 | 3-1 | 24-1 |
| WE | 2 | Chapman | IND | 0.933 | 0.540 | 0.639 | 4 | B | 1 | 14-1 | 15-1 | 0-0 | 21-3 |
| WE | 3 | St. Thomas | MIAC | 0.875 | 0.534 | 0.619 | 5 | A | C | 21-3 | 21-3 | 8-2 | 22-3 |
| WE | 4 | UW-Stevens Point | WIAC | 0.875 | 0.555 | 0.635 | 6 | A | C | 21-3 | 22-3 | 2-2 | 22-3 |
| WE | 5 | UW-River Falls | WIAC | 0.773 | 0.576 | 0.625 | 22 | C | 4 | 17-5 | 17-5 | 1-2 | 19-6 |
| WE | 6 | Carleton | MIAC | 0.783 | 0.538 | 0.599 | 25 | C | 5 | 18-5 | 18-5 | 5-3 | 18-7 |
| WE | 7 | Whitman | NWC | 0.722 | 0.533 | 0.580 | 46 | C | 20 | 13-5 | 14-5 | 2-2 | 18-7 |
| WE | 8 | Lewis and Clark | NWC | 0.706 | 0.534 | 0.577 | 56 | C | 26 | 12-5 | 12-5 | 1-3 | 18-7 |
| WE | 9 | UW-Whitewater | WIAC | 0.667 | 0.548 | 0.578 | 64 | C | 32 | 16-8 | 17-8 | 1-4 | 17-8 |
| WE | 10 | Hamline | MIAC | 0.600 | 0.585 | 0.589 | 65 | C | 33 | 15-10 | 15-10 | 6-5 | 15-10 |
| WE | 11 | St. Olaf | MIAC | 0.667 | 0.515 | 0.553 | 78 | C | 42 | 16-8 | 16-8 | 3-5 | 17-8 |
| WE | 12 | UW-La Crosse | WIAC | 0.619 | 0.558 | 0.573 | 83 | C | 46 | 13-8 | 13-10 | 3-4 | 14-11 |
KEY:
WP - Winning percentage
wSOS - Strength of schedule (including home/neutral/away adjustment)
NAT - National rank of in-region RPI
C - "Guaranteed" Pool C (within top 18 in nation)
wC - Within Pool C position (within range of current top 18 Pool C candidates)
bub - Pool C bubble (within range of current top 28 Pool C candidates)
number - Current rank among Pool C candidates.
REG - record versus in-region opponents
D3 - record versus all D3 opponents
vRRO - record versus regionally ranked opponents
OVR - overall record
