Monday, February 21, 2011

Regional Rankings 2/21/2011

These regional rankings are not official. They are calculated based on in-region RPI, which is not a criteria of the NCAA selection committee. All data comes via d3hoops.com.

MY RANKING METHOD HAS CHANGED.

Instead of simply ranking by RPI, I'm now using a formula that I came up with that has matched the last two sets of regional rankings fairly well. It doesn't always pick the perfect order, but it usually gets the right teams, and it usually puts them in a similar order. Not perfect, but pretty good for a "dummy" ranking system (without any human adjustment).

The formula is this:
0.5 x WP + 0.49 x SOS + 0.002 x (# of regionally ranked games) + 0.005 (pct. versus regionally ranked) + 0.05 x d3RPI

When comparing actual ranking to computed ranking, the trendline formed by using this equation gives a slope of 0.8269 and an r-squared coefficient of 0.8693. Not bad.

You may notice that the 'SOS' and 'RPI' columns are noted 'wSOS' and 'wRPI'. This is to signify that these numbers are calculated as weighted numbers (using the OWP and OOWP adjustments as described in the NCAA handbook).

Keep in mind that these rankings are really just a starting point. I don't adjust the rankings to account for head-to-head matchups or common opponents or anything, so feel free to adjust as you see fit.

I'm handing out the 'A' bid to the team with the highest RPI rating (counting all D3 games).

When the official rankings come out on Wednesdays, the NCAA will have ranked three fewer teams per region. I like to 'rank' more than they do so that we can get a picture of who might also be in the mix (not implying that my list is complete).

Enjoy.

Through games of 2/20/2011.

Reg.RankTeamConferenceWPwSOSwRPINat.PoolStatusREGD3vRROOVR
NE1WilliamsNESCAC0.9570.5760.6711AC 22-123-15-124-1
NE2MiddleburyNESCAC0.9520.5150.6253C120-122-12-123-1
NE3WPINEWMAC0.8750.5400.6248AC 21-321-34-221-4
NE4BeckerNECC0.8800.5180.60911AC 22-322-34-122-3
NE5AmherstNESCAC0.9130.4510.56716C321-221-24-222-2
NE6Western ConnecticutLEC0.8330.5320.60819AwC20-421-44-121-4
NE7Rhode Island CollegeLEC0.7080.5930.62232C917-717-73-317-7
NE8ElmsNECC0.7270.5150.56850C2316-618-71-418-7
NE9Salem StateMASCAC0.7600.4460.52570A 19-619-61-319-6
NE10St. Josephs (Maine)GNAC0.7500.4680.53977A 18-618-60-118-7
NE11HussonNAC0.7830.4320.51979A 18-518-60-119-6
NE12Eastern ConnecticutLEC0.6820.5090.55282C4515-716-80-517-8
NE13Roger WilliamsCCC0.6800.5070.55092A 17-817-81-117-8
NE14BrandeisUAA0.6670.5080.54895C5416-816-81-416-8
Reg.RankTeamConferenceWPwSOSwRPINat.PoolStatusREGD3vRROOVR
EA1Oswego StateSUNYAC0.8800.5020.59715AC 22-322-33-122-3
EA2IthacaE80.7920.5550.61420AwC19-520-54-220-5
EA3RochesterUAA0.8640.4820.57821AwC19-320-44-120-4
EA4HobartLL0.7920.5240.59133C1019-519-61-219-6
EA5StevensE80.7600.5190.57943C1719-619-62-219-6
EA6MedailleAMCC0.7920.4560.54049C2219-519-61-319-6
EA7Buffalo StateSUNYAC0.7140.5160.56660C2915-617-61-318-6
EA8RPILL0.6820.5340.57163A 15-715-71-417-7
EA9Plattsburgh StateSUNYAC0.7140.5060.55869C3615-616-90-216-9
Reg.RankTeamConferenceWPwSOSwRPINat.PoolStatusREGD3vRROOVR
AT1RamapoNJAC0.8640.5150.60217AC 19-320-42-120-5
AT2SUNY-PurchaseSKY0.8400.4880.57626AwC21-421-43-221-4
AT3KeanNJAC0.7730.5210.58434C1117-518-64-118-7
AT4St. Josephs (L.I.)SKY0.7830.4560.53752C2418-519-52-320-5
AT5Rutgers-NewarkNJAC0.7080.5000.55266C3417-717-72-317-7
AT6Mount St. MarySKY0.7080.4930.54775C4017-718-72-318-7
AT7Montclair StateNJAC0.6500.5540.57876C4113-716-71-319-7
AT8Farmingdale StateSKY0.6520.5160.55089C5015-816-83-416-9
Reg.RankTeamConferenceWPwSOSwRPINat.PoolStatusREGD3vRROOVR
MA1La RocheAMCC0.9170.4730.58412AC 22-222-23-223-2
MA2St. Marys (Md.)CAC0.8570.4860.57923AwC18-320-42-120-5
MA3CabriniCSAC0.8000.5160.58729AwC20-520-54-020-5
MA4Gwynedd-MercyCSAC0.8260.4930.57630C819-419-41-320-5
MA5KeystoneCSAC0.8080.4790.56136C1221-521-53-321-5
MA6WesleyCAC0.7620.5090.57245C1916-516-91-216-9
MA7Franklin and MarshallCC0.7830.4760.55248Abub18-520-50-220-5
MA8ScrantonLAND0.7730.4680.54453Abub17-517-52-118-5
MA9Lebanon ValleyMACC0.7390.5010.56157C2717-619-61-119-6
MA10AlverniaMACC0.7140.4950.55067A 15-615-61-316-6
MA11DeSalesMACF0.6960.5270.56971A 16-716-70-118-7
MA12York (Pa.)CAC0.6520.4920.532104C6215-815-85-217-8
Reg.RankTeamConferenceWPwSOSwRPINat.PoolStatusREGD3vRROOVR
SO1Virginia WesleyanODAC0.8700.5110.60013C220-320-34-122-3
SO2Randolph-MaconODAC0.8330.5490.62014AC 20-421-42-321-4
SO3Texas-DallasASC0.8260.5010.58228C719-420-42-120-4
SO4Birmingham-SouthernSCAC0.8570.4510.55335N/A 18-320-31-121-3
SO5FerrumUSAC0.8180.4770.56238C1418-420-41-221-4
SO6North Carolina WesleyanUSAC0.7780.5130.57939AwC14-416-41-219-6
SO7Eastern MennoniteODAC0.7890.4890.56441C1515-416-42-221-4
SO8EmoryUAA0.7830.4680.54747C2118-519-51-219-5
SO9McMurryASC0.7390.5040.56251Abub17-617-62-218-7
SO10Mary Hardin-BaylorASC0.7600.4810.55154C2519-619-62-119-6
SO11CentreSCAC0.7620.4850.55458Abub16-517-50-118-5
Reg.RankTeamConferenceWPwSOSwRPINat.PoolStatusREGD3vRROOVR
GL1WoosterNCAC0.9090.5040.6059AC 20-221-23-223-2
GL2HopeMIAA0.8820.5180.60918AC 15-215-30-019-6
GL3ThielPrAC0.8330.5160.59524AwC15-315-31-018-6
GL4Penn State-BehrendAMCC0.8800.4470.55627C622-322-33-222-3
GL5MariettaOAC0.8640.4700.56931AwC19-321-30-022-3
GL6WabashNCAC0.7830.5030.57337C1318-518-54-219-5
GL7WittenbergNCAC0.7370.5340.58544C1814-516-62-217-7
GL8BethanyPrAC0.7200.4950.55173C3818-718-70-318-7
GL9CalvinMIAA0.6880.5140.55781C4411-511-81-114-12
Reg.RankTeamConferenceWPwSOSwRPINat.PoolStatusREGD3vRROOVR
MW1Concordia (Wis.)NATHC0.9090.5240.6207AC 20-220-23-022-3
MW2AugustanaCCIW0.9130.5030.60510AC 21-221-23-022-2
MW3ManchesterHCAC0.7830.5000.57140AwC18-518-52-219-6
MW4HanoverHCAC0.7390.5310.58342C1617-618-63-318-6
MW5St. NorbertMWC0.7830.4720.55055Abub18-518-50-118-5
MW6BenedictineNATHC0.7390.4830.54759C2817-618-61-518-7
MW7AndersonHCAC0.6820.5350.57261C3015-717-72-417-8
MW8Milwaukee EngineeringNATHC0.7500.4810.54862C3118-619-61-219-6
MW9North Central (Ill.)CCIW0.6360.5620.58168C3514-815-93-315-10
MW10Illinois WesleyanCCIW0.6960.5270.56972C3716-717-70-117-7
MW11EdgewoodNATHC0.6960.5090.55574C3916-716-71-416-9
Reg.RankTeamConferenceWPwSOSwRPINat.PoolStatusREGD3vRROOVR
WE1WhitworthNWC0.9600.5080.6212AC 24-124-13-124-1
WE2ChapmanIND0.9330.5400.6394B114-115-10-021-3
WE3St. ThomasMIAC0.8750.5340.6195AC 21-321-38-222-3
WE4UW-Stevens PointWIAC0.8750.5550.6356AC 21-322-32-222-3
WE5UW-River FallsWIAC0.7730.5760.62522C417-517-51-219-6
WE6CarletonMIAC0.7830.5380.59925C518-518-55-318-7
WE7WhitmanNWC0.7220.5330.58046C2013-514-52-218-7
WE8Lewis and ClarkNWC0.7060.5340.57756C2612-512-51-318-7
WE9UW-WhitewaterWIAC0.6670.5480.57864C3216-817-81-417-8
WE10HamlineMIAC0.6000.5850.58965C3315-1015-106-515-10
WE11St. OlafMIAC0.6670.5150.55378C4216-816-83-517-8
WE12UW-La CrosseWIAC0.6190.5580.57383C4613-813-103-414-11

KEY:
WP - Winning percentage
wSOS - Strength of schedule (including home/neutral/away adjustment)

NAT - National rank of in-region RPI

C - "Guaranteed" Pool C (within top 18 in nation)
wC - Within Pool C position (within range of current top 18 Pool C candidates)
bub - Pool C bubble (within range of current top 28 Pool C candidates)
number - Current rank among Pool C candidates.

REG - record versus in-region opponents
D3 - record versus all D3 opponents
vRRO - record versus regionally ranked opponents
OVR - overall record

No comments:

Post a Comment