Sunday, November 20, 2011

Stats-And-More Versus Grace Bible

Win Probability Graph
This one is a lot more fun to look at than the one from the Anderson game (click image for larger version.).


Lots of ups and downs and back and forths. The lowest point of the game was right near the end of the first overtime when Calvin was down by five with under a minute to play (look just to the left of the 45 minute mark on the graph). At that point, their chances of winning was one-half of one percent. Snikkers' first three pointer brought that up to 11%, but then that dropped to 3% after Krombeen hit one of the free throws. Tommy's second three pointer that tied the game, then, brought them all the way back to 50%. That one shot was worth 47 points of 'win probability added', which is pretty much a full team win in itself (since each team begins the game with a 50-50 chance, one win equals 50 points of win probability added, and a loss would equal -50 points of WPA).


Game Stats

Player%Min%ShotseFG%PPWSFTrArTOrRb%effposs
Snikkers0.720.410.4230.920.270.290.030.16-38.3
Haverdink0.700.160.1000.370.200.140.100.07-20.0
Vallie0.700.150.6671.380.440.060.000.15-16.9
Powell0.580.250.3460.790.150.260.100.04-20.0
Kruis0.540.150.5711.140.000.000.270.11-11.0
DeVries0.540.190.5001.100.670.070.000.13-16.9
Rietema0.380.090.8331.770.670.470.100.00-10.0
DeBoer0.320.180.4000.800.000.000.330.13-9.0
Mast0.260.130.5001.000.000.130.000.20-4.0
DeYoung0.140.080.0000.000.000.220.000.00-2.0
Dykstra0.080.280.0000.000.000.000.330.13-3.0
Nadeau0.040.000.0000.000.000.000.000.00-0.0
Calvin1.001.000.4200.930.260.610.150.57104.687.9
Grace Bible1.001.000.4851.060.470.620.190.43102.186.2

First off, 41% of the shots is way too many for any one player. Tom Snikkers is going to need to shoot more than any other Calvin player, but he needs to be more in the 30% range. In his defense, though, it wasn't as if he was taking away shots from someone else that was going to score with top-notch efficiency.

It was really nice to see Tyler Kruis and Mickey DeVries have nice games offensively. Neither one were really light-the-world-on-fire good in this game, but we're at the point right now where 'solidly efficient' needs to be the name of the game. Calvin sorely needs their big men to get more involved in the offense -- that should help to open up more space for the shooters/slashers -- but at least Kruis and DeVries were effective when they did decide to go for it.

Turnovers were not an issue at all; that's a relief.

The offensive efficiency rating of 104.6 isn't excellent, but it does fall in the "good enough" range. They didn't shoot the ball particularly well, just a .420 eFG% and a .93 PPWS, but they did well on the boards and shot well from the free throw line to make the most of each possession.

It's really nice to see David Rietema put up assist rates well in to the .40's.  I was skeptical about him starting before the year began, but he's been a pleasant surprise with how well he's been able to distribute the rock. He showed a touch of scoring ability in this game too.

I'll update the season totals on these numbers when I do a run down of the Willamette game. Hopefully tonight.

Rotations
I won't really comment on these charts right now -- I'll wait to take a look at the season numbers to date -- but here's a look at the rotation data. 24 total player combinations were used.

GGFFCMINPFPA+/-O-PosD-PosOEffDEffMargin
RietemaHaverdinkSnikkersVallieKruis10.3202001516133.3125.08.3
PowellHaverdinkSnikkersVallieDeVries6.9171431513113.3107.75.6
PowellHaverdinkSnikkersVallieKruis4.594576128.666.761.9
RietemaHaverdinkSnikkersVallieDeVries3.794577128.657.171.4
PowellMastDeBoerVallieKruis2.52205440.050.0-10.0
PowellMastDeBoerDeVriesDeYoung2.2000120.00.00.0
RietemaMastDeBoerVallieKruis2.056-145125.0120.05.0
PowellMastDeBoerDykstraDeVries1.924-24450.0100.0-50.0
PowellMastSnikkersDeVriesDeYoung1.763333200.0100.0100.0
PowellHaverdinkDeBoerDeVriesKruis1.724-24450.0100.0-50.0
NadeauHaverdinkSnikkersVallieDeYoung1.53214475.050.025.0
RietemaHaverdinkSnikkersDeVriesKruis1.553233166.7100.066.7
PowellHaverdinkDeBoerSnikkersKruis1.520221100.00.0100.0
PowellSnikkersVallieDeVriesKruis1.302-2120.0100.0-100.0
PowellHaverdinkDeBoerDykstraDeVries1.222023100.066.733.3
PowellSnikkersVallieDykstraDeVries1.102-2210.0200.0-200.0
RietemaMastDeBoerVallieDeVries1.035-222150.0250.0-100.0
RietemaHaverdinkSnikkersDeVriesDeYoung0.920221100.00.0100.0
PowellHaverdinkSnikkersDeVriesDeYoung0.825-322100.0250.0-150.0
PowellDeBoerSnikkersVallieKruis0.710101-0.0-
PowellHaverdinkMastDeBoerKruis0.604-4120.0200.0-200.0
PowellHaverdinkDeBoerSnikkersDeVries0.6000100.0--
PowellMastDeBoerDeVriesKruis0.202-201-200.0-
HaverdinkMastSnikkersVallieDeVries0.100000---
TOTAL----50.09288+48787105.7101.14.6

Player Chart
Here's that same data, but broken out on a player-by-player basis.

PlayerMINPFPA+/-O-PosD-PosOEffDEffMargin
Snikkers36.87659176460118.898.320.4
Haverdink35.57362116562112.3100.012.3
Vallie35.5696186261111.3100.011.3
Powell29.14548-3504990.098.0-8.0
Kruis26.74647-14245109.5104.45.1
DeVries26.4505004948102.0104.2-2.1
Rietema19.4443863334133.3111.821.6
DeBoer16.01929-10262973.1100.0-26.9
Mast12.11826-8202390.0113.0-23.0
DeYoung7.0131031212108.383.325.0
Dykstra4.248-48850.0100.0-50.0
Nadeau1.53214475.050.025.0
Mantel0.0000000.00.00.0
Henry0.0000000.00.00.0
Van Eck0.0000000.00.00.0
TOTAL50.0928848787105.7101.14.6

I've ragged on Snikkers for his lack of scoring efficiency, but I should point out that that offense performed very very well in this game while he was on the floor. Actually, all of the starters had very nice efficiency margin numbers.

Again, I'll take a bigger-picture look at the season to date later on, but I wanted to get this data out there for public consumption.

Want to stay up to date on the happenings at FFTMAG? Follow me on Twitter, “like” us on Facebook, and grab our RSS Feed. Need a ride to a game? Check out the Ride Board and post your needs.

No comments:

Post a Comment