Sunday, November 20, 2011

Stats-And-More Versus Willamette

Win Probability Graph


Calvin spent most of this game building up a lead, but it's easy to see Willamette's three quick runs in the second half that made the game a lot more interesting than it should have been. First, there was the 11-2 Bearcat run that turned a seven point Calvin halftime lead into a two point deficit to being the second half. Then, with about eight minutes to play, Willamette found an 8-0 run to even up the score. And, finally, they went off on a 10-2 run to take a one point lead with just over two minutes to play in the game. Those three sequences were the difference between the close win we saw, and the blowout we wanted.

Game Stats

Player%Min%ShotseFG%PPWSFTrArTOrRb%effposs
Haverdink0.730.080.3750.750.000.050.170.02-6.0
Snikkers0.700.350.3440.850.380.070.150.11-25.9
Kruis0.650.210.6671.480.890.090.150.19-19.8
Vallie0.580.160.8331.670.000.260.330.11-15.0
Rietema0.550.080.3330.760.670.580.140.08-14.0
DeBoer0.530.320.5911.260.180.000.000.10-14.0
Powell0.450.240.5000.950.430.550.120.07-16.4
DeVries0.350.170.0000.642.000.000.230.09-12.8
Mast0.280.170.0000.000.000.000.140.24-7.0
Dykstra0.200.230.3330.670.000.000.200.11-5.0
Calvin1.001.000.4551.020.440.700.270.5893.386.8
Willamette1.001.000.4420.920.140.480.160.4288.186.2

That 1.02 team PPWS is actually a lot better than I was expecting. It's still not particularly excellent (you'd like to see a Calvin team up around 1.10 probably), but considering the offensive efficiency rating for the game was in the 93 range, it's pretty good. So, even though the shooting percentages were still lower than we'd like, they made up for it a little bit with getting to the free throw line and rebounding in the offensive end. Unfortunately, the high turnover rate partially ruined this one for the offense.

The elevated turnover rate should be expected against a team that presses a lot, as Willamette did, but the good news is that the culprits weren't the point guards. Powell and Rietema took care of the ball pretty well actually.

Season Stats
Here's that same chart (pretty much), but for the season as a whole. I'll spend a little bit more time talking about this one.

Player%MIN%ShotseFG%PPWSFTrORb%Rb%ArTOrBlk%Stl%Effposs
Haverdink0.700.140.2860.640.100.040.030.110.090.020.01-35
Snikkers0.680.380.3700.870.350.090.130.130.140.030.03-88
Kruis0.580.160.6001.330.500.090.160.030.220.040.01-42
Vallie0.570.150.7501.440.330.080.120.140.160.000.01-38
Powell0.520.300.4380.930.220.030.070.370.130.000.02-55
DeVries0.480.220.4090.940.640.130.140.060.110.010.01-44
Rietema0.470.070.5001.120.860.000.050.500.180.000.01-34
DeBoer0.460.230.5231.090.090.070.100.110.090.000.00-33
Mast0.320.110.2140.430.000.070.140.160.130.000.01-16
DeYoung0.120.040.0000.000.000.060.060.100.250.000.004
Dykstra0.090.260.2000.400.000.080.130.000.250.070.00-8
Nadeau0.020.000.0000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000
Calvin1.001.000.4400.970.320.400.570.670.230.070.1195.4244
Opponents1.001.000.4931.030.290.250.430.570.170.050.1297.9242

I don't think I've given the defense much credit, but the Knights have done pretty well on that end of the floor, actually. I wouldn't call them excellent, or even very good, but through three games, they've held the opposition to an OEff under 98 (last year's defense held opponents to a 100 rating).

The offense most definitely is behind. A 95 offensive efficiency rating won't win many games in the MIAA, so they'll need to step it up big time. That number really needs to be 107 or better.

I'm loving the free throw rates from the bigs. Tyler Kruis is shooting one free throw for every two field goal attempts he takes, and Mickey DeVries is getting to the line even a little bit more frequently than that. That tells me that they're being assertive with the ball, and not being afraid to work hard and draw contact. We're going to need to see that inside scoring presence to take some pressure off Tom Snikkers.

I love seeing the great assist rates out of Powell and Rietema. Rietema's 0.50 number is particularly impressive because he doesn't shoot the ball very much. He's quite literally assisting on half of the baskets that are scored while he's on the floor. That's pretty ridiculous. The top player I have in my database is Ricky Shilts in 2005 when he assisted on just over 21% of his teammate's field goals.

I would really like to see Mitch Vallie keep shooting the ball. He's been a terrific scorer so far in his Calvin career, and we desperately need to see efficiency right now.

Rotations
I'm now listing this chart as a running season total, not for the individual game. We're still a ways away from this meaning very much, but it's still worth looking at. Here's the top 25 combinations (in terms of minutes played together).

GGFFCMINPFPA+/-O-PosD-PosOEffDEffMargin
RietemaHaverdinkSnikkersVallieKruis27.25251+14848108.3106.32.1
PowellHaverdinkSnikkersVallieKruis8.313130141492.992.90.0
PowellHaverdinkSnikkersVallieDeVries8.22114+71814116.7100.016.7
RietemaMastDeBoerDeVriesKruis6.4115+6131284.641.742.9
PowellHaverdinkDeBoerSnikkersDeVries5.4178+91310130.880.050.8
PowellHaverdinkMastDeBoerKruis4.0310-78937.5111.1-73.6
RietemaHaverdinkSnikkersVallieDeVries3.794+577128.657.171.4
PowellDeBoerSnikkersVallieKruis3.5134+988162.550.0112.5
PowellHaverdinkDeBoerSnikkersKruis3.554+16683.366.716.7
PowellMastDeBoerDeVriesDeYoung3.405-5340.0125.0-125.0
PowellHaverdinkDeBoerDykstraDeVries3.137-45660.0116.7-56.7
PowellMastDeBoerVallieKruis2.52205440.050.0-10.0
PowellHaverdinkSnikkersDeVriesDeYoung2.4611-555120.0220.0-100.0
RietemaHaverdinkDeBoerDykstraKruis2.284+466133.366.766.7
RietemaMastDeBoerVallieKruis2.056-145125.0120.05.0
PowellDeBoerSnikkersDeVriesDeYoung2.024-24450.0100.0-50.0
PowellMastDeBoerDykstraDeVries1.924-24450.0100.0-50.0
PowellMastDeBoerSnikkersDeVries1.835-234100.0125.0-25.0
RietemaMastSnikkersVallieDeVries1.702-2440.050.0-50.0
RietemaHaverdinkVallieDeVriesKruis1.744033133.3133.30.0
PowellMastSnikkersDeVriesDeYoung1.763+333200.0100.0100.0
PowellHaverdinkDeBoerDeVriesKruis1.724-24450.0100.0-50.0
PowellHaverdinkMastDeBoerDeVries1.662+432200.0100.0100.0
RietemaMastDeBoerDeVriesDeYoung1.620+211200.00.0200.0
PowellHaverdinkMastSnikkersDeYoung1.643+133133.3100.033.3

You can see that even after three games, only a handful of these lineups have played any sort of "significant" minutes together (really the only group with much significance at all is the starters).

Player Stats
Here's the season totals when broken down on the player-by-player basis.

PlayerMING%F%C%PFPA+/-O-PosD-PosOEffDEffMargin
Haverdink89.8100%0%0%180165+15171168105.398.27.0
Snikkers88.93%97%0%171161+10169162101.299.41.8
Kruis75.50%0%100%135140-514014296.498.6-2.2
Vallie74.20%97%3%133127+613913795.792.73.0
Powell67.3100%0%0%115128-1312812789.8100.8-10.9
DeVries62.90%43%57%114111+311911595.896.5-0.7
Rietema61.1100%0%0%115107+8112111102.796.46.3
DeBoer60.412%88%0%98115-1711411886.097.5-11.5
Mast40.576%24%0%5874-16737479.5100.0-20.5
DeYoung16.00%0%100%2530-5272792.6111.1-18.5
Dykstra11.90%93%7%1825-7242575.0100.0-25.0
Nadeau1.5100%0%0%32+14475.050.025.0
Henry0.00%0%0%00000---
Mantel0.00%0%0%00000---
Van Eck0.00%0%0%00000---
Totals650.0---11651185-201220121095.597.9-2.4

Really there's far too much noise in these numbers right now to even consider having an intelligent conversation about them (both this chart and the rotation chart above), but I still think it's fun to peruse. I appreciate the efficiency margin column (far right) the most.

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