Friday, December 9, 2011

Trinity Preview

Game Nine
WhoTrinity Christian Trolls (6-7, NAIA-II)                                                       
WhatNot a rivalry game
WhereVan Noord Arena, Calvin College
WhenSaturday, 3:00 PM
AudioStretch Internet
VideoStretch Internet
StatsLive Stats

When We Last Met
Calvin won the matchup last year in Palos Heights 90-79. Six Knights reached double figures in scoring, three of which are still on the team this season – Bryan Powell (13), Tom Snikkers (12) and Matt DeBoer (11).

Calvin coulda/woulda/shoulda possibly won the game by a larger margin. They had a double-digit lead only eight minutes into the game, but Trinity came back to tie the game by halftime. The Knights spent the second half rebuilding the lead.

About Trinity
Trinity and Calvin are not rivals. We care 0% about them, and we never want to see them on the schedule ever again.

The Trinity Christian Trolls stand at 6-7 on the year, but I think that record paints their season in a more positive light than it should. Their wins have come against St. Louis Christian (currently 0-10), IU-Northwest (2-8), St. Ambrose (5-5), Roosevelt University (Chicago) (2-5), Holy Cross College (2-8), and Moody Bible Institute (0-7). Another way to put it: they lost to Kuyper.

Their losses haven't been blowouts, for the most part, so I don't think they'll be a super-duper pushover, but it's clear that this isn't a great team. It looks to be an excellent opportunity for Calvin to flex a little muscle.


‘Four Factors’


I’m interested to get a look at Trinity, because their stats are really hard to figure out. They attempt, on average, about 25 three pointers per game (Calvin attempts about 13), but they haven’t made a very high percentage (just .311). They’ve shot well on two-point attempts (.516), and they’ve gotten to the line with good frequency (an above-average free throw rate of 0.40). You’d think with these numbers they’d want to shoot fewer three pointers and more two pointers where they make a better percentage and have a chance to get to the line. Overall, though, their shooting comes out looking pretty good with an effective field goal percentage of .496.

It looks like it will be a battle between Trinity’s apparent shooting advantage, and Calvin’s strong rebounding advantage.

TeameFG%PPWSFTrORb%Rb%ArTOrBlk%Stl%OEffDEffPOSPOS/40
Calvin0.4631.010.330.390.560.640.210.110.1099.6102.752072.3
Trinity0.4961.070.400.270.470.480.210.020.1198.999.395778.9

I'm choosing to take all of Trinity's stats with a grain of salt, because I don't think they have played a very difficult schedule. The numbers actually look pretty even, but Calvin should (has to) win this game.

Keys to the game
  • Fewer than 14 turnovers
  • Make some dang shots

Success Benchmarks
  • Win
  • Score 80 points or more
  • Allow 72 points or fewer

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