Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Stats-and-More after the MIAA-CCIW Classic

Win Probability Graphs


Wins look like smiles.


And losses are frowns. Actually, this one looks like falling off a cliff, which is what it felt like at the time.



Weekend Chart
These numbers are combined for both games.

Player
%Min
%Shots
eFG%
PPWS
FTr
Ar
TOr
Rb%
eff










Snikkers
0.63
0.39
0.315
0.76
0.37
0.29
0.04
0.26
-
Kruis
0.63
0.14
0.400
0.91
0.90
0.21
0.10
0.36
-
DeBoer
0.63
0.36
0.660
1.28
0.20
0.06
0.03
0.17
-
DeVries
0.51
0.16
0.444
1.01
0.44
0.00
0.32
0.15
-
Powell
0.50
0.21
0.458
1.08
0.50
0.24
0.20
0.15
-
Vallie
0.49
0.18
0.500
1.00
0.00
0.14
0.19
0.12
-
Rietema
0.40
0.04
0.500
1.02
1.00
0.20
0.42
0.07
-
Van Eck
0.36
0.17
0.714
1.31
0.43
0.00
0.24
0.33
-
Haverdink
0.33
0.05
1.000
2.00
0.00
0.20
0.25
0.14
-
Mast
0.33
0.19
0.714
1.43
0.00
0.08
0.00
0.23
-
Dykstra
0.13
0.00
0.000
0.00
0.00
0.15
0.50
0.24
-
Nadeau
0.09
0.10
0.000
0.00
0.00
0.22
0.33
0.17
-
DeYoung
0.00
0.00
0.000
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-










Calvin
1.00
1.00
0.504
1.05
0.35
0.62
0.23
0.55
97.7
Opponents
1.00
1.00
0.500
1.12
0.43
0.65
0.24
0.45
99.1

There’s actually a whole heckuva lot to be encouraged about here. I think it’s fair to say that playing Wheaton and Carthage would be similar to playing the top two non-Calvin MIAA schools (whether that’s Hope and Adrian or Albion, I’m not sure). So, even when it comes down to the MIAA tournament, the Knights won’t be facing a weekend that’s appreciably more difficult than this one was.

A few good team bullets:
  • Hooray for shooting percentages! Most of the positive was due to a really, really good shooting night against Carthage (six of ten from three-point range), but even the effort against Wheaton was among the top three games of the year in terms of shooting percentages. Either way, a .504 average is right where the Knights need to be on the year.
  • This team’s rebounding ability is for real. This is shown in the 55% to 45% advantage that they’ve claimed over their opponents so far, but an even more telling number is the nearly 39% that they’re pulling down on the offensive end. I have historical numbers going back to 2002, and, since then, a Calvin team has never finished the year above 38% (MIAA teams are currently averaging 30% on the offensive glass).
  • The assist rate is still top-notch. 62% of Calvin’s made baskets were the result of an assist this weekend (on the year, it’s 64%). This is also the highest that’s been since at least 2002. The 2005 Final Four team was the highest with a 57% assist rate.

A bad team bullet:
  • One of the biggest issues right now is turnovers. A Calvin possession has ended in a turnover 21% of the time this season. That’s not unworkably high, but possessions are at a premium – especially for a team that struggles to shoot at a high percentage.

Individual Efficiency Chart
Note: remember that we can not attribute these numbers entirely to the individual (especially early in the year). These are really TEAM numbers while the player is on the court.


Player
MIN
G%
F%
C%
PF
PA
+/-
O-Pos
D-Pos
OEff
DEff
Margin













Snikkers
214.3
5%
95%
0%
378
395
-17
394
382
95.9
103.4
-7.5
Kruis
204.9
0%
0%
100%
360
366
-6
366
365
98.4
100.3
-1.9
Haverdink
171.4
100%
0%
0%
316
331
-15
307
311
102.9
106.4
-3.5
Vallie
168.9
0%
99%
1%
293
312
-19
297
300
98.7
104.0
-5.3
DeBoer
162.8
37%
63%
0%
301
284
17
303
303
99.3
93.7
5.6
DeVries
159.7
0%
64%
36%
279
284
-5
297
288
93.9
98.6
-4.7
Rietema
158.8
100%
0%
0%
308
291
17
286
290
107.7
100.3
7.3
Powell
153.0
100%
0%
0%
253
288
-35
277
272
91.3
105.9
-14.5
Mast
117.7
72%
28%
0%
209
229
-20
207
212
101.0
108.0
-7.1
Dykstra
45.0
0%
98%
2%
81
91
-10
82
81
98.8
112.3
-13.6
Van Eck
40.5
0%
9%
91%
75
70
5
71
70
105.6
100.0
5.6
DeYoung
27.5
0%
0%
100%
46
62
-16
49
51
93.9
121.6
-27.7
Nadeau
20.8
100%
0%
0%
31
32
-1
35
35
88.6
91.4
-2.9
Henry
4.9
0%
100%
0%
10
10
0
9
10
111.1
100.0
11.1













Totals
1650.0
-
-
-
2940
3045
-21
2980
2970
98.7
102.5
-3.9

The 'new' starting lineup has been killing it on the defensive end of the floor. They've now been in the game together for 31 minutes (59 defensive possessions) and they've only given up 37 points. That's a defensive efficiency rating of 62.7! They haven't been stellar on offense, however, putting up a lower-than-you'd-like offensive efficiency rating of 96.7. Still, I'll take the 34.0 efficiency margin any day of the week!

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