Thoughts on the Upcoming MIAA-CCIW Challenge

I actually never know if this is officially referred to as a “classic” or a “challenge”. It has flipped-flopped over the years and has always depended on who’s schedule page you happened to be viewing at the moment. This season, in fact, none of the schools’ online schedule pages call it anything at all, except Wheaton, who simply calls it “CCIW Challenge”.

No one cares? No one cares. Moving on.

Why this is fun

The MIAA-CCIW Challenge isn’t fun in the same way the Big Ten-ACC Challenge* is fun – the latter being one of the best events in sports, in my opinion – but it still serves as a measuring stick (of sorts) that is so frequently missing from Calvin’s non-conference schedule. Sure the GRSHOF games on Thanksgiving weekend are always that, but it’s more difficult to compare to NAIA schools who start their schedule in late October and often have several more games under their belts.

*I’ve often wondered/fantasied about a true MIAA-CCIW challenge which would match up the eight CCIW schools with the eight MIAA schools in the same manner as the Big Ten and ACC do, but the fact of the matter is the MIAA would get destroyed. I think a Calvin or Hope could match up with a top-two CCIW school frequently enough to make that part fun, but the middle and bottom of the CCIW would feast on the middle and bottom of the MIAA. There’s just so much more conference depth over there. The hope most years would be for two or three MIAA wins.

But it’s fun because it’s back to back games against quality Division III programs who also share quite a bit in the way of institutional mindset. Carthage rarely forays into the top tier of the division, but they’ve been a Massey Top-1,000 team (all divisions, including NAIA, which generally equates to the top quarter or third of D3) in every year of his database (going back to 2003).

And it’s fun because of the back-to-back games which allow for direct comparison with a conference rival.

Why this is not fun

This is not fun because every year this weekend carries the weight of potential at-large tournament selection. “Signature wins” aren’t really a thing in the Division III selection process but “head-to-head”, “common opponents”, and “results versus regionally ranked opponents” are, and they often come into play when Wheaton and Carthage is concerned.

It’s also not fun because Calvin hasn’t had as much success the last few years as fans would like. Last year’s 27-point drubbing of Wheaton was a high point, but the loss the night before to Carthage was a result that shouldn’t have happened.

And the results have been especially poor on the other side of the lake. According to the Massey database, Calvin hasn’t beaten either Carthage or Wheaton on Lake Michigan’s western shore since the 2004-05 season when they beat Carthage in the Challenge and Wheaton in the NCAA Tournament (after losing to them in the challenge).

I don’t like to think about that.

About this year

Wheaton comes into play on Friday with a 4-2 record. The (2-point) loss to Defiance is a bit of a surprise, but the Yellow Jackets appear to be of reasonable quality themselves, and they owned the home court advantage for that game. The other loss was by four points at home to (now) #4 Washington U. That’s not a bad result at all.

On the positive side of the ledger they turned in an 11-point victory at #17 Chicago on Wednesday. Wheaton isn’t currently ranked in the current week’s Top-25 (they’re in the Others Receiving Votes category), but perhaps they would be if we were able to call for a re-rank after Wednesday.

Wheaton is a legitimate threat to go 2-0 this weekend. My personal KenPom-like efficiency ratings – which, to be clear, should be taken with a large small sample size caveat – call for likely scores of:

Wheaton 84, Calvin 79 (64% chance of a Wheaton victory)

Wheaton 88, Hope 74 (87% chance of a Wheaton victory)

The Massey Ratings call for a 73-69 win over Calvin and a 75-70 win over Hope (63% and 67% Wheaton win probabilities for those games respectively).

Carthage is having a rougher go this season; they’re 3-3 but have maybe only one positive result. They got hammered by 35 against Washington U. on a neutral site and suffered double-digit losses to St. Francis (NAIA) and UW-LaCrosse. Another negative result is also their one-point overtime win over UC-Santa Cruz (who won four games last season).

The solid-looking result is a 9-point win over a decent-to-good UW-Platteville squad.

My efficiency ratings call for scores of:

Hope 79, Carthage 78 (58% chance of a Hope win)

Calvin 83, Carthage 74 (83% chance of a Calvin win)

The Massey Ratings call for a 73-71 loss to Hope and a 72-69 loss to Calvin (44% and 39% Carthage win probabilities respectively.

Why I seemingly wrote that last section from the CCIW perspective

I have no clue.

What we want to see this weekend

Two wins, obviously.

More specifically: a win over Carthage almost feels like a must if there are any hopes of a Pool C (at large) bid for the tournament. A win over Wheaton isn’t as much of a must, but you’d at least like to see Calvin stay competitive. A double-digit loss would be disheartening.

2-0: Ecstatic

1-1: Probably expected, just hang with Wheaton

0-2: Soul is crushed

Stats-and-More after the MIAA-CCIW Classic

Win Probability Graphs

Wins look like smiles.

And losses are frowns. Actually, this one looks like falling off a cliff, which is what it felt like at the time.

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Efficiency Achieved

Calvin 71, Carthage 68 (box score)

I could get used to this whole shooting 50% thing. Apparently getting the ball to go through the little hoop thing helps you win games.

In all seriousness though, the second half of last night's game was certainly the best half of offensive basketball that we've seen from the Knights this season. The first half wasn't pretty at all (actually maybe just the first ten or twelve minutes), but they really got comfortable as the game progressed. I definitely wouldn't say they played a "full 40 minutes", but you have be pleased when looking at the game as a whole.

I really felt like Calvin moved the ball a lot better in the second half. Instead of trying to take their man one-on-one and forcing a tough shot, they got into the routine of not rushing, and making the extra pass.

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MIAA-CCIW Classic Preview

	Games Seven and Eight
Who	Carthage and #13 Wheaton
What	MIAA-CCIW Classic
Where	Van Noord Arena
When	Friday -- 8:00 PM
	Saturday -- 5:30 PM
Audio	Stretch Internet
Video	Stretch Internet
Stats	Live Stats

When We Last Met
Calvin went 0-2 last year in Kenosha. The Friday night game was an embarrassing 22 point loss to the Wheaton Thunder, and Saturday saw an eight point loss to the host Carthage Red Men (although Calvin had the deficit down to two points with under two minutes to play. Calvin is 2-6 versus these CCIW rivals in the last full four-year rotation of the MIAA-CCIW Classic, with both wins coming against Carthage in West Michigan.

Calvin's last win against Carthage: 2009-10
Calvin's last win against Wheaton: 2005-06
Calvin's last CCIW sweep: 2005-06

Calvin hasn't lost to Carthage in West Michigan since this series started in 2004-05.

I believe the host conference has yet to lose a Friday game in the seven-year history of this series.

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Calvin MIAA-CCIW Offensive Stats

Here's the advanced statistics from this weekend's games in Kenosha, Wisconsin. As I'm sure you can figure, one game isn't pretty while the other game is average to slightly above.

Wheaton Game

Player	%Min	%Shots	eFG%	PPWS	FTr	Ar	Rb%
Rodts	0.55	0.17	0.417	0.93	0.17	0.19	0.19
Snikkers	0.48	0.33	0.500	1.05	0.10	0.17	0.33
Schuster	0.48	0.23	0.286	0.57	0.00	0.00	0.11
Powell	0.53	0.15	0.000	0.34	0.40	0.33	0.00
Brink	0.65	0.20	0.313	0.63	0.00	0.08	0.16
Haverdink	0.73	0.15	0.643	1.29	0.00	0.00	0.00
Schnyders	0.40	0.36	0.667	1.31	0.22	0.00	0.26
Vallie	0.20	0.16	0.000	0.00	0.00	0.22	0.26
Fabiyi	0.10	0.00	-	-	-	0.43	0.79
Kruis	0.30	0.11	0.750	1.50	0.00	0.00	0.18
DeBoer	0.38	0.21	0.500	1.18	0.40	0.00	0.14
DeYoung	0.23	0.14	0.000	1.03	2.00	0.19	0.58
Team	1.00	1.00	0.421	0.93	0.19	0.48	1.00

I think coach got frustrated with the effort (or lack thereof) from many of his regulars, so, as we see, many of the bench guys got an opportunity to play.

Just not a good game from the starting five. Outside of Tom Snikkers, they were all very poor on the offensive end, and they were all poor on the glass.

Brian Haverdink lead the team in minutes, and Brad Schnyders was the team's best scorer. It's nice to see that the second team can come in and play effectively (and efficiently) in the offense, but it spells doom when they have to.

I'm probably making too much of this, but Mike Fabiyi looks like he'll be a good contributor on the glass. He hasn't played much this year, but when he has, he's been active on the glass. Calvin, as a team, can tend to be passive when it comes to rebounding, but I noticed that Fabiyi was looking to grab rebounds on Friday night. And he can get up to get them too. It's nice to have a guard that wants to be a part of the rebounding game.

I'm sure that some of the differences in first team/second team effectiveness has to do with being down by so much. The Wheaton defense may have taken it a little bit easy after gaining the big lead, but it just wasn't a strong game, and that's that.

Carthage Game

Player	%Min	%Shots	eFG%	PPWS	FTr	Ar	Rb%
Rodts	0.73	0.23	0.682	1.42	0.18	0.06	0.10
Snikkers	0.73	0.45	0.636	1.30	0.32	0.20	0.39
Schuster	0.80	0.17	0.389	0.78	0.00	0.00	0.21
Powell	0.55	0.22	0.250	0.50	0.00	0.32	0.04
Brink	0.55	0.05	0.500	1.00	0.00	0.12	0.22
Haverdink	0.60	0.02	0.000	0.00	0.00	0.05	0.00
Schnyders	0.48	0.16	0.600	1.16	0.80	0.00	0.30
Kruis	0.08	0.20	0.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
DeBoer	0.38	0.28	0.643	1.20	0.14	0.13	0.32
DeYoung	0.13	0.12	0.000	0.00	0.00	0.25	0.19
Team	1.00	1.00	0.530	1.09	0.21	0.41	1.00

A much better effort on Saturday, thanks Danny Rodts and Tommy Snikkers (especially Tom) going nuts. Tom is just an offensive fiend.

I'm not quite sure what to make of Matt DeBoer yet. He has long stretches of game where he doesn't pass the "eye test" on the offensive end, but he often ends the game with very favorable PPWS numbers. He's been strong on the glass as well.

Overall, I think they match up pretty well with Carthage. I wouldn't be afraid to play them in the tournament if the Knights are fortunate enough to get in, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Well, At Least We Learned Something

Wheaton 86, Calvin 64
Carthage 88, Calvin 80

Disappointing, I know. I really thought Calvin had a chance to win one or even both games, but it didn't happen. Calvin showed their youth a little bit, especially in the Wheaton game, but I think (and Hope) they'll get better from this.

The first thing we learned is that it's tough to get a lot of blogging done when you're on the road. You think you're gonna do it, but then you don't because the one year old won't fall asleep with the light on and the keys tapping, and the wife wants you to help out and stuff. Oh well, live and learn I guess.

The second thing we learned is that the opposition shoots a high percentage from beyond the arc if you leave them wide open. Wheaton hit on 52% of their three point opportunities, and Carthage hit on 54% of theirs. If we go back to the Cornerstone game (they shot 59% from three point range) we see a disturbing trend developing. You just won't win consistently if you allow that many open looks. And most of these shots were open looks.

Let's just go ahead and chalk the 22 point loss up to being "one of those days." after watching both Calvin games, as well as the Hope/Wheaton game, I'm confident that Calvin isn't 22 points worse than Wheaton. I think Wheaton (and Hope and Carthage) are probably a bit ahead of the Knights at this point, but I think they're all still pretty close. I wouldn't expect another blowout if they met again.

In that same vein, it was nice to see the Knights fight back against Carthage after trailing by 13 at the half. They fought their way to within four with around seven to play, and even though they would never get closer than two, they put themselves in position to win.

The good news is that neither of the Calvin games were in-region, so they won't count in the primary criteria come selection Sunday. The only in-region game was the Hope/Wheaton contest, and the Dutchmen won that, so that will help out Calvin.

A special round of applause goes out to the Carthage cheerleading squad. My wife was escorting a slightly fussy one year old girl around the gym on Friday night, and the "Red Hots" provided some entertainment by inviting the little one to dance with them while they warmed up. We appreciate it ladies!

Calvin has Trinity and Aquinas coming up the next two Saturdays. Those both look like wins right now.

Stats and stuff to come once I get around the pond.

MIAA-CCIW Classic Preview

MIAA/CCIW	Classic
Who	Carthage (#18)
	Wheaton (#21)
Where	Kenosha, WI
When	Friday
	Wheaton
	(Hope vs. Carthage)
	Saturday
	(Hope vs. Wheaton)
	Carthage
Radio	WFUR
Web	Audio
Web	Video
Live Stats	Stats
Tickets	$6, $3 Seniors/Kids
Directions	Click

I really love this weekend. MIAA-CCIW games are what D3 is all about, but unfortunately only one of the four games will be counted as "in-region" (Hope vs. Wheaton). Still it's games against quality D3 teams, and I'm all about that.

Wheaton
Calvin gets Wheaton on Friday night, and unfortunately for the Knights, no team from the "away conference" has won a game on Friday in the six year history of the MIAA-CCIW Classic.

Matchup	Calvin	Wheaton	Advantage
Calvin eFG% vs. Wheaton DeFG%	0.518	0.479	Even
Calvin DeFG% vs. Wheaton eFG%	0.430	0.551	Wheaton
Calvin TOr vs. Wheaton DTOr	0.226	0.256	Wheaton
Calvin DTOr% vs. Wheaton TOr	0.204	0.190	Even
Calvin ORb% vs. Wheaton DRb%	0.331	0.700	Even
Calvin DRb% vs. Wheaton ORb%	0.690	0.346	Wheaton
Calvin FTr vs. Wheaton DFTr	0.359	0.266	Wheaton
Calvin DFTr vs. Wheaton FTr	0.283	0.335	Calvin
Calvin OEff vs. Wheaton DEff	102.384	90.569	Wheaton
Calvin DEff vs. Wheaton OEff	91.621	112.481	Wheaton

I was thinking this was going to be a pretty even matchup, but the statistics seem to give a convincing advantage to the Thunder. They lost to now #25 Manchester in their season opener, but they've punished four teams since them (Covenant, UW-Whitewater, Loras, and Chicago).

I was really liking this matchup in the pre-season, but now I'm of the opinion that this will be the tougher of the two games for the Knights. It's a really tough situation to predict. Calvin could go 0-2 or they could go 2-0. I'll take 1-1 though.

Carthage
Carthage has one of the, if not the single, best players in D3 basketball in Steve Djurickovic (jurr-ick-oh-vich, I think), but their supporting cast may be questionable.

They've surprised me with how they've played so far. A lot was expected of this team before the season, but they've lost their only two tough games, and they were unimpressive in what should have been an easy win. I'm sure they're good, they're ranked in the Top 20, but they haven't impressed me yet.

Matchup	Calvin	Carthage	Advantage
Calvin eFG% vs. Carthage DeFG%	0.518	0.520	Calvin
Calvin DeFG% vs. Carthage eFG%	0.430	0.522	Calvin
Calvin TOr vs. Carthage DTOr	0.226	0.232	Carthage
Calvin DTOr% vs. Carthage TOr	0.204	0.149	Carthage
Calvin ORb% vs. Carthage DRb%	0.331	0.647	Calvin
Calvin DRb% vs. Carthage ORb%	0.690	0.324	Even
Calvin FTr vs. Carthage DFTr	0.359	0.389	Calvin
Calvin DFTr vs. Carthage FTr	0.283	0.455	Carthage
Calvin OEff vs. Carthage DEff	102.384	100.429	Even
Calvin DEff vs. Carthage OEff	91.621	115.021	Carthage

This game looks pretty even from a statistical standpoint, plus you have to factor in home court advantage for the Red Men. They key to the game will be how the Knights handle Stevie D. I guess my opinion in situations like this is since you can't ever really stop players that are truly great, just stop his teammates. Usually one player can't win a game on his own. He's going to get his, so don't let his teammates also get open shots.

I was sitting pretty high on the horse after Calvin's win over Cornerstone last Saturday, but realization is setting in. Calvin will be (slight) underdogs in both games this weekend.

Oh, and I know it's tough Calvin fans, but we really need to root for Hope over Wheaton. That's the only in-region game, and a win by the Dutchpeople (who the Knights will play two or three times) would help to boost Calvin's strength of schedule.

Sure-To-Be-Wrong Prediction
Calvin by 3 over Wheaton
Calvin by 6 over Carthage