Thursday, December 2, 2010

MIAA-CCIW Classic Preview


 MIAA/CCIW   Classic
WhoCarthage (#18)
Wheaton (#21)
WhereKenosha, WI
WhenFriday
Wheaton
(Hope vs. Carthage)
Saturday
(Hope vs. Wheaton)
Carthage
RadioWFUR
WebAudio
WebVideo
Live StatsStats
Tickets$6, $3 Seniors/Kids
DirectionsClick


I really love this weekend. MIAA-CCIW games are what D3 is all about, but unfortunately only one of the four games will be counted as "in-region" (Hope vs. Wheaton). Still it's games against quality D3 teams, and I'm all about that.

Wheaton
Calvin gets Wheaton on Friday night, and unfortunately for the Knights, no team from the "away conference" has won a game on Friday in the six year history of the MIAA-CCIW Classic.

MatchupCalvinWheatonAdvantage
Calvin eFG% vs. Wheaton DeFG%0.5180.479Even
Calvin DeFG% vs. Wheaton eFG%0.4300.551Wheaton
Calvin TOr vs. Wheaton DTOr0.2260.256Wheaton
Calvin DTOr% vs. Wheaton TOr0.2040.190Even
Calvin ORb% vs. Wheaton DRb%0.3310.700Even
Calvin DRb% vs. Wheaton ORb%0.6900.346Wheaton
Calvin FTr vs. Wheaton DFTr0.3590.266Wheaton
Calvin DFTr vs. Wheaton FTr0.2830.335Calvin
Calvin OEff vs. Wheaton DEff102.38490.569Wheaton
Calvin DEff vs. Wheaton OEff91.621112.481Wheaton

I was thinking this was going to be a pretty even matchup, but the statistics seem to give a convincing advantage to the Thunder. They lost to now #25 Manchester in their season opener, but they've punished four teams since them (Covenant, UW-Whitewater, Loras, and Chicago).

I was really liking this matchup in the pre-season, but now I'm of the opinion that this will be the tougher of the two games for the Knights. It's a really tough situation to predict. Calvin could go 0-2 or they could go 2-0. I'll take 1-1 though.

Carthage
Carthage has one of the, if not the single, best players in D3 basketball in Steve Djurickovic (jurr-ick-oh-vich, I think), but their supporting cast may be questionable.

They've surprised me with how they've played so far. A lot was expected of this team before the season, but they've lost their only two tough games, and they were unimpressive in what should have been an easy win. I'm sure they're good, they're ranked in the Top 20, but they haven't impressed me yet.

MatchupCalvinCarthageAdvantage
Calvin eFG% vs. Carthage DeFG%0.5180.520Calvin
Calvin DeFG% vs. Carthage eFG%0.4300.522Calvin
Calvin TOr vs. Carthage DTOr0.2260.232Carthage
Calvin DTOr% vs. Carthage TOr0.2040.149Carthage
Calvin ORb% vs. Carthage DRb%0.3310.647Calvin
Calvin DRb% vs. Carthage ORb%0.6900.324Even
Calvin FTr vs. Carthage DFTr0.3590.389Calvin
Calvin DFTr vs. Carthage FTr0.2830.455Carthage
Calvin OEff vs. Carthage DEff102.384100.429Even
Calvin DEff vs. Carthage OEff91.621115.021Carthage

This game looks pretty even from a statistical standpoint, plus you have to factor in home court advantage for the Red Men. They key to the game will be how the Knights handle Stevie D. I guess my opinion in situations like this is since you can't ever really stop players that are truly great, just stop his teammates. Usually one player can't win a game on his own. He's going to get his, so don't let his teammates also get open shots.

I was sitting pretty high on the horse after Calvin's win over Cornerstone last Saturday, but realization is setting in. Calvin will be (slight) underdogs in both games this weekend.

Oh, and I know it's tough Calvin fans, but we really need to root for Hope over Wheaton. That's the only in-region game, and a win by the Dutchpeople (who the Knights will play two or three times) would help to boost Calvin's strength of schedule.

Sure-To-Be-Wrong Prediction
Calvin by 3 over Wheaton
Calvin by 6 over Carthage

No comments:

Post a Comment