Here are my calculated probabilities that each team wins the listed round according to my efficiency ratings. One pretty big caveat: the probability calculations I used assumes all games are taking place on a neutral court which is obviously not the case. Teams playing at home should be assumed to have more favorable chances than are listed below.
Rounding is to the nearest tenth of a percentage point, so zero point zero is not true zero (everyone has a chance!).
| Seed | Team | 1st Round | 2nd Round | Sweet 16 | Elite 8 | Final Four | Champions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randolph-Macon | 99.4% | 85.2% | 67.7% | 43.3% | 29.3% | 20.6% |
| 1 | Wis.-Oshkosh | 99.3% | 78.7% | 67.1% | 47.7% | 33.1% | 17.4% |
| 1 | Wesleyan (CT) | 98.2% | 78.4% | 45.0% | 22.5% | 13.4% | 8.4% |
| 1 | Marietta | 99.2% | 75.5% | 46.1% | 28.6% | 13.6% | 8.3% |
| 2 | Johns Hopkins | 56.4% | 43.2% | 28.5% | 15.3% | 6.9% | 4.0% |
| 1 | WPI | 88.7% | 50.4% | 26.0% | 12.1% | 6.6% | 3.8% |
| 1 | Wis.-Platteville | 90.5% | 55.2% | 36.4% | 17.2% | 9.6% | 3.7% |
| 1 | Emory | 88.5% | 62.4% | 34.7% | 20.4% | 9.8% | 3.7% |
| 2 | Saint Joseph (CT) | 78.4% | 41.9% | 21.1% | 9.5% | 5.1% | 2.9% |
| 1 | Chris. Newport | 95.0% | 75.7% | 37.2% | 16.4% | 5.9% | 2.9% |
| 1 | Mount Union | 88.9% | 51.2% | 28.4% | 15.9% | 7.2% | 2.5% |
| 1 | Swarthmore | 67.7% | 39.2% | 19.4% | 10.8% | 4.5% | 2.4% |
| 1 | WashU | 87.2% | 59.6% | 32.0% | 16.1% | 7.1% | 2.4% |
| 2 | Oswego St. | 77.8% | 41.9% | 20.1% | 10.8% | 4.3% | 2.3% |
| 2 | Williams | 79.5% | 42.1% | 22.6% | 12.3% | 5.5% | 1.9% |
| 2 | Wis.-La Crosse | 67.8% | 39.2% | 23.1% | 11.9% | 5.4% | 1.9% |
| 2 | UMass Dartmouth | 78.0% | 62.3% | 21.0% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 1.9% |
| 3 | Yeshiva | 43.6% | 31.5% | 19.1% | 9.0% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| 2 | Elmhurst | 87.9% | 62.3% | 29.0% | 11.3% | 5.3% | 1.5% |
| 1 | Ill. Wesleyan | 93.2% | 47.3% | 25.7% | 11.9% | 4.8% | 1.5% |
| 2 | Saint Johns (MN) | 60.6% | 28.7% | 16.9% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| 2 | Rochester (NY) | 71.3% | 20.8% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| 2 | CWRU | 55.8% | 12.1% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 1 | Whitworth | 62.0% | 36.6% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 2 | Wabash | 58.3% | 21.7% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 3 | Rensselaer | 67.9% | 17.8% | 5.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 1 | Stockton | 93.3% | 25.2% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 3 | Calvin | 39.4% | 14.5% | 6.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 2 | Wheaton (IL) | 57.2% | 22.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 4 | Keene St. | 32.3% | 13.3% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| 3 | Dubuque | 44.2% | 9.1% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 | Pomona-Pitzer | 69.4% | 27.2% | 9.0% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| 3 | Heidelberg | 32.2% | 13.0% | 5.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 3 | Mary Hardin-Baylor | 56.8% | 27.3% | 5.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 2 | DeSales | 55.1% | 9.3% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 3 | Berry | 41.7% | 13.0% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 3 | Hope | 42.8% | 14.5% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| 2 | Chapman | 43.2% | 17.9% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 3 | Penn St. Harrisburg | 21.6% | 6.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 3 | Susquehanna | 50.3% | 13.2% | 3.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | Trinity (TX) | 38.0% | 18.2% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | Nazareth | 54.6% | 15.4% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 3 | Babson | 44.9% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 3 | Emerson | 22.0% | 11.8% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 3 | Hood | 22.2% | 5.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | Westfield St. | 45.4% | 10.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2 | Rowan | 49.7% | 10.3% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 | Neumann | 20.5% | 4.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 | Eastern | 28.7% | 3.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2 | Nichols | 32.1% | 3.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | Northwestern-St. Paul | 30.6% | 6.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | Averett | 11.5% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | Vassar | 11.3% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | Cornell College | 12.8% | 3.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | Stevens | 11.1% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 | Wash. & Jeff. | 12.1% | 3.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | Marian (WI) | 9.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | Baruch | 5.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | Franklin | 6.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | Husson | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | Wilson | 6.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | Blackburn | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | Mitchell | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 4 | Medaille | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
