It’s always dangerous to predict a sort of depth chart when
we (1) don’t know the roster and (2) don’t even fully know who’s trying out,
but nothing that’s completely safe is ever fun, so let’s go. This exercise
comes with the caveat that I probably have no idea what I’m talking about, so
take any and all necessary precaution.
5 / Center:
Center is the easiest position to figure out because it’s
going to be 100% – barring injury or something unforeseen – 100% the same as
last year.
Tyler Kruis is
obviously not changing here. He received basically 26 minutes per game last
year and could/should see a bump up to 27 or 28 (and pushed to 30 in the bigger
games), but frontline depth is probably the smallest concern for the Calvin
Knights heading into the 2013-14 season so squeezing out extra minutes from
Tyler won’t be a huge issue. I’m just saying this off the cuff without really
thinking about it, but the senior should start the year on the shortlist of
MIAA MVP candidates.
Dan Stout took a
big step forward last season. He didn’t see A Ton Of Time – basically 13
minutes – but he proved to be an outstanding rebounder, a good shot blocker,
and an very efficient scorer. He can step out and hit a jump shot, but his
bread and butter was drawing fouls (particularly off of an offensive rebound)
and knocking down his free throws (over 74%). He’s probably earned more minutes, but with Kruis in
front of him he’ll be relegated to whatever playing time is left.
4 / Forward:
Mickey DeVries
had an excellent year off the bench for the Knights a season ago, and I think
he has a very good chance of cracking the lineup this season. He played roughly
19 minutes per game last season, but could see that go up to as many as 24 this
year. DeVries was mostly a hard-nosed rebounder in his first year with the
Knights, but he developed into an efficienct scorer as well a season ago. He
could stand to improve his free throw percentage and probably pass on the
longer of his jump shot opportunities, but I shouldn’t get negative here.
Mickey was really really good last year.
Tyler Dykstra is
probably the nominal backup here. Not because he’s getting bumped from the
lineup, but because I have him as the starter at the other forward spot. Tyler
didn’t look to shoot a lot last season, but, when he did, he was the most
efficient scorer in the starting lineup. He’ll probably gobble up the remaining
16 (or so) minutes at this position unless Coach VandeStreek thinks Dan Stout needs more playing time in
which case we might see a small handful of minutes with both he and Kruis on
the floor.
3 / Forward:
This is the hardest of the five positions to peg a nominal
starter. Given the players returning from last year’s roster my perception of
the plan at the position is:
A: hope
Tyler Dykstra is a ‘three’.
B: there
is no B.
In all seriousness though, there is simultaneously (1)
plenty of options but (2) plenty of playing time available for someone to step
up.
Dykstra showed some wing tendencies last year by hitting 35%
of his 30 three point attempts, so he can help spread the floor a little bit.
He’ll likely be the primary ‘backup’ (not the right word) at the other forward
position*, so, although I think he’s the ‘starter’ here, I don’t think he’ll be
getting the most minutes at the
position.
*I think it’s easy to
over emphasize the difference between a possible ‘3’ and ‘4’ and also ‘2’ and
‘3’ at this level.
It would be incredibly nice to have Mitch Vallie available
to fill in the gap here but, alas, he has decided to pursue further educational
opportunities across the state at Oakland University. Two non-Freshman options
include Jordan Mast and Jordan Daley.
I’m a big proponent of Mast and his .471 career three point
percentage and, although he didn’t play a lot last year, he has experience as
one of the regular members of the rotation two years ago after All The Injuries happened. He’s not
going to make a lot of plays for himself on offense, but he’ll knock down tons
of threes if given the chance.
Daley is probably more of a guard – and I think he’ll be in
the rotation as a ‘two’ – but his 6-3 frame would make him big enough to play
some as a forward or as a third guard in a three-guard set. Again with the
thing about position designations not being a huge big deal. T.J. Huizenga could also be in a
similar position as well.
I think the forward spots are particularly interesting
because DeVries and Dykstra offer enough flexibility with the lineups that any
number of players could prove themsevles worthly of time at either the ‘three’
or ‘four’ and the Knights could adjust accordinly with the proper number of
minutes. Then again, they have enough in these spots that they don’t really need anyone unexpected to step up as a
major contributor.
2 / Guard:
According to his own accounts media sociale, Jordan Brink
underwent foot surgery last month to correct an injury that had been nagging
him all summer. That’s obviously less than ideal news for the basketballing
world, but my understanding (so, so limted understanding) is that he
could/should be ready to resume workouts around the time that practice opens up
and stands a decent chance of being ready to go once real games start in
mid-November.
A handful of candidates probably exist to see playing time
as the primary backup (see the later paragraphs of 3 / Forward), but I’m going to wager a guess that it’s Jordan Daley who opens the year in this
spot. He was the only Freshman to crack the varsity roster out of fall practice
(if my memory serves), and, even though he eventually split time with the JV
squad to get some minutes in, always seemed to me to be the one being groomed
for future playing time.
1 / Guard:
No David Rietema, no Bryan Powell, and now no Ryan Nadeau
who has transferred to fulfill his dream of attending Michigan State. I would
have penciled in Nadeau as the probable starter here, but really now Austin Parks is the only returner
(using that sort of loosely) at the point guard position. Parks spent the full
year with the JV team, but also was dressing with the Varsity team by the end
of the year. He didn’t play very much with the Varsity, but he proved in JV
ball that he can really shoot the three.
Jordan Brink
could be sort of the emergency option at the point (assuming he’s healthy), but
I think Calvin has found a Freshman who could get a shot in one Brad Visser. Visser (Calvin Christian)
was reportedly
heading to Central Michigan as a walk-on before deciding late to come to
Calvin instead. Limited internet Googling suggests that he’s probably more of a
combo-guard or eventual two-guard than a pure point guard (a la Jordan Brink),
but he apparently played the point in high school and could get an opportunity
to crack the rotation right away.
Summary
C: Kruis – 27
min, Stout – 13 min
F: DeVries – 24
min, Dykstra – 14 min, Stout – 2 min
F: Dykstra – 12
min, Mast – 18 min, Daley – 5 min, Huizenga – 5 min
G: Brink – 25
min, Daley – 15 min
G: Parks – 21
min, Visser – 19 min
Again, this is my simply my perception based on how things
ended up last year and how they look going forward. I don’t typically like to
include Freshmen in things like this, but I was made aware of Visser and the
internet tells me that he’s probably the type of player who could contribute
right away. That’s not to say that other freshmen and/or JV players couldn’t
end up in this rotation, it’s a bonus if they do.
Speaking of JV
players
I think two former JV-ers will join the varsity team this
year. Austin Heemskerk, 6-7 forward,
could come up this year and compete for rotation time at a forward spot. Eric Brower, 6-8 center, will also
likely be on the roster. I don’t think he’ll have a chance to play outside of
mop-up time (Kruis and Stout have that position on lock-down), but Calvin will
want to continue to try to develop him for the future. You know, in case Dan
Stout can’t play 40 minutes per game the following year.
That leaves probably two spots for additional freshmen
and/or JV players which feels about right.
Summary Opinion
I think this roster will be pretty good at a minimum with a
chance to be very, very good if a few things break right (i.e. one or two
player break out). Injuries, as always, could derail things, but there’s enough
here to withstand mild disaster scenarios while still competing for a top-two
spot in the league in what’s probably a down year for the MIAA (there have been
more downs than ups lately).
It’s going to be interesting to see where the extra scoring
is going to come from – Tom Snikkers, Bryan Powell, David Rietema, Matt DeBoer,
and Mitch Vallie accounted for 35 points per game a season ago, 47% of the
team’s points – but they’ll have plenty of opportunities as the departing group
collectively played 46% of the minutes and took 51% of the shots.
I think the interesting thing about the roster this upcoming
year is that it both has plenty of experience – there are no questions about
Kruis, Stout, DeVries, Dykstra, and Brink – while also providing an opportunity
for as many as four youngsters to step up, gain experience and prove themselves
on the floor. They’re losing a lot from last year, but they are also returning
a good core group which means they don’t need
a lot from unproven to still be pretty good.
Leaving / Returning
Chart
%Min
|
%Shots
|
eFG%
|
PPWS
|
|
Players Leaving
|
46%
|
51%
|
.503
|
1.05
|
Players Returning
|
54%
|
49%
|
.540
|
1.15
|
We’re going to have to see how the numbers change with more
shot attempts, but the players who are returning were ultra-efficient last
year, netting 1.15 points per weighted shot (basically points per attempt to
score). But in the end it’s not so much returning players replacing leaving
players it’s new players replacing leaving players and returning players just
stepping things up a little bit.
