Head Coach Kevin Vande Streek Retires from the Men's Basketball Program

I didn’t think I would be writing this post so soon, but here we are. Kevin Vande Streek has announced his retirement as Men’s Basketball Coach at Calvin. I figured this day was coming but sort of thought this decision might be 3-5 years out.

It feels sad for us, as Calvin basketball fans, to lose a legend like Coach Vande Streek, but it’s a happy day for him and his family. It’s a day to celebrate his accomplishments and be proud of the way he represented himself and the institution. I’d personally like to thank Kevin and Vicki for what they poured of themselves and their family into Calvin College.

On the court, KVS accomplished as much as any coach could hope for. A National Title, an additional Final Four appearance, several Sweet Sixteens and an array of MIAA and MIAA Tournament championships. The trophy case is full.

I arrived at Calvin in the fall of 2004 as an engineering student. I grew up on the east side of the state so Calvin basketball wasn’t really ingrained into me from a young age. I knew of the Hope Rivalry, I knew of the 2000 National Championship, I knew that it was a “basketball school”, and I knew that some considered it to be a sort of Duke or Kansas-like program in the Division III landscape.

At any rate, the Calvin student section had good participation in those days and I got swept up in the excitement. That 2004-05 Calvin team had a very solid regular season, but, at 19-6, they needed to keep winning to extend their season. The magic began in the MIAA Tournament where they beat Hope and Albion (at Albion, I think that was the last time the MIAA semifinals and finals were hosted at a site besides Calvin or Hope before Trine hosting this season) to claim the MIAA’s automatic bid.

The NCAA Tournament came next. A buzzer-beater tip-in at Wheaton sent Calvin on to Aurora where they erased a 15-point deficit to advance to the Sweet Sixteen (again, at Albion). The Knights easily dispatched Mississippi College to battle the host Britons for the right to go to the Final Four. Calvin was swept by Albion in the regular season, but once again came out on top in a classic battle with the season on the line. A trip to Salem, Virginia was on.

Unfortunately, Calvin lost to Rochester in the National semifinals when Rochester hit a three-pointer with six seconds to go in the game. That run – with fan buses to Illinois and a minivan full of friends driving the 12-hours to Viriginia – solidified my love of Calvin basketball. I probably would not be following Division III basketball like I do without that Calvin team – that Kevin Vande Streek team – making that magical run in my first year at the school.

Loving basketball (or any sport) can feel silly at times. It’s a small thing in the grand scheme of our lives and our world, but Calvin College basketball has been important to me these last 15 years. It’s a connection I can share to keep me close to my alma mater. It’s a connection I’m now sharing with my daughters. My connection with Calvin basketball has always included coach Vande Streek on the sideline. It’s going to be way, way different from now on.

Calvin Basketball 2017-18 Roster Thoughts

The Calvin men's basketball roster has been out for nearly a week now, and I've been mulling it over in the meantime. I don't have any revelatory conclusions except that it's rather young and inexperienced. There are only four upperclassmen on the roster who played on the Calvin varsity team last season.

This is both good and troubling. The good news is that Calvin still returns four starters and a handful of bench players who saw minutes last season. The good news is also that 13 of the 15 players could return next season.

The troubling part is that it seems to me that Calvin needs at least two (and probably three) players who enter the season as relative unknowns to step up and contribute solidly in the rotation if they're going to entertain hopes of winning silverware once again this season.

Returning starters Tony Canonie (SR), Tony DeWitte (SO), Michael Wilks (SR), and Austin Bykerk (JR) should not present any problems for the Knights. Canonie is the best defensive player in the MIAA (he was robbed of the award last season), and Wilks could prove to be one of the best scorers in the league. DeWitte and Bykerk will both be asked to take a step forward in their second seasons in maroon and gold, but they both enter the season with the baseline of at least being solid contributors to begin with.

The rest of the returning players are Carlos Amoros-Gutierrez (JR), Derrick DeVries (SO), Alex Bos (SO), and David Rinke (FR). Amoros-Gutierrez and DeVries both appeared in double-digit number of games last year, but averaged fewer than ten minutes in those games. Bos came on as a matchup contributor at the end of the season, and Rinke appeared in a few games early before a foot injury ended his season (I believe he'll retain that season of eligibility).

Added into the mix will be Lake Michigan College transfer Jason Walter (JR), Hope transfer Tom Morrison (SO), and JV call-up Isaiah McLaughlin (JR). Quality of competition caveats apply for Walter's season at the NJCAA level, but he started 22 games for Lake Michigan and averaged 12 points and seven rebounds in 22 minutes per game (his scoring efficiency numbers were strong as well with 1.23 points per weighted shot and a .605 effective field goal percentage). Morrison played a season of JV ball at Hope.

The four true freshmen that made the team are Forrest Bouyer Jr., Thad Shymanski, Luke Morrison, and Emmett Warners. Anything you get from freshmen should be a nice bonus. I rarely count on them for immediate impact.

So Calvin's going to need to find one starter, probably a forward-type player. I'd consider Derrick DeVries to be the favorite as the returning non-starter who logged the most minutes last season (excluding Amoros-Gutierrez who will probably need to come on when Canonie comes off). Alex Bos also saw some time in the rotation at the end of the season, particularly when Calvin needed to match up with a bigger squad. I'd say he's in the running as well. If we want to read his junior college stats in the most positive light, Jason Walter could also be in the mix.

I said Calvin needed to find three breakout players if they hope to compete at the top of the league. Here are my three bold predictions as to who those players might be (based on nothing but gut feel):

• David Rinke gets major playing time and draws striking comparisons to a young Tyler Kruis.
• Jason Walter becomes a rotation player and is one of the most efficient scorers on the team.
• Forrest Bouyer pushes for playing time at the point and leads the team in assists (per minute).

Depth Chart Guess (2017-2018):

	1	2	3	4
G	Canonie	Amoros	Bouyer	L. Morrison
G	DeWitte		McLaughlin	Shymanski
G/F	DeVries	Walter		Warners
F	Wilks	Bos	T. Morrison
F/C	Bykerk	Rinke

At the Tipping Point

In sports it often seems that our favorite players and teams are at a tipping point. Sometimes we're actually at that point, but mostly it's just something we say as we build sports narratives in our minds. Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford, for example, is in his third-straight make-or-break season (at least, I haven't really looked back further).

Calvin's potential tipping point is different than that of Stafford, feeling more severe. Will the program bounce back and return to national renown and MIAA dominance, or was last season a harbinger of lean years to come?

Calvin's 10-15 finish in 2016 was the program's first sub-500 season since 1984. That's not great. 2017 will be a different season, that much is for sure, but it's not clear how much different it will be in terms of wins and losses.

What is clear (or should be clear) is that this upcoming season isn't likely to set the tone of the next decade of Calvin basketball. Another substandard season isn't going to (necessarily) usher in a run of mediocrity (or worse!).

The situation was similar just four years ago when the Knights finished 13-13. Any sixth grader with a straight edge could draw a downward trendline from 19-9 (2010) to 16-12 (2011) to 13-13 (2012). Tipping point tipped. Calvin was doomed.

Except they weren't doomed. The Knights immediately rebounded to go on one of the better three-year runs in recent program history: a 24-win per season average, two league titles, three league tournament titles, three trips to the NCAA Tournament, and two runs to the Sweet Sixteen.

It was just the third time Calvin had ever won 20+ games in a stretch of three or more consecutive seasons, and the first time they did it without winning a National Championship.

This season might not go well for the Knights -- who knows exactly -- but either way it's unlikely to be part of an actual downward trend for the program. The tipping point is not real. At least probably not.

The race for MIAA Tournament spots should be an interesting one. Hope appears to be the favorite and Olivet will probably finish last, but spots 2-7 are very much up for grabs. Our expectation, as always, is for Calvin to compete at the top of the conference. And they'll be back there soon enough.

Thoughts on Opening Night and Season Expectations

The Calvin men's basketball team tips off tonight, I thought I'd lay down some thoughts to get my head around the season.

Calvin suffered substantial roster losses between last year and this year -- graduating four players and having one of the top freshmen decide not to return -- which has made it difficult for me to peg this season.

When the roster came out last month, I was surprised to find 17 names listed. That's not the norm for a Kevin Vande Streek team. Usually we see 14 or maybe 15 names.

But perhaps even more unusual than the number of players was they way they were used in Tuesday's exhibition game at Northwood. Ten players saw the floor so we got a good idea of the playing rotation:

	Starter	Bench
G	Parks	Kronemeyer
G	Visser	Canonie
G	Daley	Drews
F	Denney	Wilks
F	Welch	VanEngen

There's nothing really unusual here -- except maybe that six of the ten players are listed as guards -- but the minute distribution is where things get interesting. Vande Streek didn't expand his rotation beyond a "normal" ten players, and two of the players saw the floor for only 11 minutes.

The starters didn't necessarily play heaps of minutes -- Welch led the way with 27 -- but the team appeared to jump right into an exhibition game with a rotation that was already relatively tight.

I'm not really sure what that means. It seems like if any of the other seven players were going to be contributors this season that they would have gotten into the game to get their feet wet, but that might not be a correct assessment. We'll have to see how things unfold in the coming weeks.

It's clear that Calvin is going to play small this year. Two years after nominally starting Dyler Dykstra at the 3 and Jordan Daley at the point, Calvin will be running out three guards on most occasions. But that's not necessarily a bad thing.

Calvin remains a relatively big team for Division III (or, at least, not a small team), and going guard-heavy should allow their offense to operate more in the spread-the-floor-and-shoot-threes style. Not that they weren't three-ball heavy last year or in past years, but they've typically found a Tyler Kruis or John Mantel to play inside-out with. I don't think Calvin can do that this year.

Neither Welch nor Denney appear to me to be able to generate a ton of offense for themselves in the post. Perhaps I'm incorrect there. Jordan Daley, I think, will be the team's best post scorer, and he thrives on mismatches against the other team's 2 or 3.

At any rate, shooting three pointers worked tremendously against Northwood. There's no way they can shoot 55% for the season -- and there's evidence that Northwood is simply a bad defensive team -- but Calvin has several players who should have the green light to shoot from range when they find themselves open. As long as this doesn't turn into settling for long-range two point jump shots as well, I'll take this kind of offense all day every day. It's no secret that I love the three point shot.

If we can take real science data away from a one-game exhibition sample (and we probably shouldn't), it's that Parks, Visser, Denney, Canonie, Drews, Wilks, and Daley (more from history) can all knock down threes when given an opportunity. There's no Jordan Brink, but perhaps the offense can still find a way to hum.

Defense is another story. Calvin was poor defensively against Northwood, but they're perhaps a good Division II offense, so maybe they weren't the best measuring stick. Calvin is going to have to defend well to be successful and compete for the league this year. They weren't a particularly good defensive team last season, but they were so good offensively that some of the miscues were covered up and they still won games. I'm not sure that happens this year.

So let's talk about expectations. Calvin's coming off of a very good three-year run that saw them win two league titles, three MIAA tournament titles, reach two Sweet 16s, and reach the Round of 32. The 2013 squad in particular might have been Final Four good, but they had to play at (eventual Final Four team) St. Thomas in the Sweet Sixteen, losing by a single point at the buzzer when the final shot rimmed out.

I think it's unreasonable to expect more of that to just continue. The MIAA coaches voted Calvin third in the preaseason poll, a spot that makes some sense. I might actually swap Alma and Trine in the projected finish myself, but I think 2,3,4 are going to find themselves in a dogfight. It's Hope's title to lose.

I think Calvin's 50-percentile projection for this season is 16 or 17 totals wins and an eventual third place finish in the MIAA standings. In this case there will be flashes of greatness, stretches of facepalm, and some hope for the coming years. If you could run the season 1,000 times (given current unknowns, etc.), half the time they would perform better than this and half the time worse. Sometimes you catch breaks and sometimes you don't.

But I also think there exists a 90-percentile scenario whereby Calvin wins 19-20 games and either finishes atop the league or wins the MIAA Tournament. In this scenario Jordan Daley becomes a legitimate MIAA MVP candidate, Calvin becomes a defensive juggernaut (particularly on the perimeter), and everyone is capable of knocking down three pointers on offense. 90% of the scenarios are not this, but maybe 5-10% are. The aforementioned 2013 team did basically this, but they had a few more established players heading into the season.

On the flip side, the 10-percentile projection is Calvin repeating 2012 and finishing .500 in fourth place. It's hard for me to see Calvin completely dropping out of the MIAA Tournament (though fifth place would be possible here), but the floor of this squad is that of only a middling Division III team. The schedule is a difficult one this season, and in my most pessimistic of moods I see lots and lots of loseable games.

But this season isn't about pessimism vs. optimism. It's about enjoying the ride we're on right now, wherever that might take us.

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A Statistical Look at the Mount Union Pod

Here's a quick, tempo-free look at the four teams in the Mount Union pod (Mount Union, Calvin, Oswego State, Neumann). I've been tracking team efficiency numbers all year. Attempts were made to adjust offensive and defensive ratings (points per 100 possessions) for schedule strength.

For context, NCAA averages this year were:
Offense: 100.4
Defense: 100.4
Tempo: 69.1 possessions per game

For context, MIAA averages during conference play this year were:
Tempo: 63.1 possessions
effective field goal percentage: .494
Offensive rebound rate: 30%
Turnover rate: 18%
Free throw rate (FTA per FGA): .35

Mount Union

Mount Union
Overall Rank: #51
Offense: 114.1 (#13)
Defense: 100.0 (#191)
Tempo: 73.1 possessions per game
effective field goal percentage: .585
Offensive rebound rate: 29%
Turnover rate: 20%
Free throw rate (FTA per FGA): .28

Mount Union likes to shoot a lot of threes (167 3PA more than Calvin this year), and they make them. They don't get to the line very much and they're prone to turning the ball over. Don't give them open looks from range. Defense appears average, and they don't rebound the offensive glass all that well (defensive rebounding looks good).

Neumann

Neumann
Overall Rank: #132
Offense: 98.3 (#255)
Defense: 93.8 (#51)
Tempo: 69.2 possessions per game
effective field goal percentage: .487
Offensive rebound rate: 35%
Turnover rate: 22%
Free throw rate (FTA per FGA): .41

Neumann's schedule was a bit soft so maybe the defense isn't quite that good (I can't guarantee that though). They don't shoot particularly well, and they turn the ball over a lot, but they do get to the free throw line a lot. They only made 62.5% of their free throws as a team, so not great, but it appears they have some trouble scoring elsewise. Defense appears quite strong and rebounding is solid.

Calvin

Calvin
Overall Rank: #64
Offense: 113.7 (#15)
Defense: 101.5 (#236)
Tempo: 67.7 possessions per game
effective field goal percentage: .536
Offensive rebound rate: 38%
Turnover rate: 18%
Free throw rate (FTA per FGA): 0.34

Good offense that can score in a variety of ways. Gets to the free throw line a decent amount. Rebounds both the offensive and defensive glass very well. Defense is questionable at times, and they don't force many turnovers.

Oswego State

Oswego State
Overall Rank: #75
Offense: 105.1 (#105)
Defense: 94.6 (#61)
Tempo: 65.3 possessions per game
effective field goal percentage: .495
Offensive rebound rate: 29%
Turnover rate: 15%
Free throw rate (FTA per FGA): 0.27

Solid on offense though not spectacular. They shoot (and make) threes at about the same rate that Calvin does. They don't force their way to the free throw line much, but they take care of the ball on offense. I think Calvin will want to force them inside without doubling. Oswego doesn't score as well inside the arc, and Calvin has the length advantage. Below average rebounding team on both sides of the floor.

Statistical score predictions:

First Round
Mount Union 79, Neumann 72 (Massey: Mount Union 83, Neumann 66)
Calvin 69, Oswego State 68 (Massey: Calvin 71, Oswego State 66)

Second Round
Mount Union 83, Calvin 80 (Massey: Mount Union 83, Calvin 77)
Mount Union 76, Oswego State 72 (Massey: Mount Union 79, Oswego State 69)
Calvin 73, Neumann 67 (Massey: Calvin 76, Neumann 64)
Oswego State 64, Neumann 60 (Massey: Oswego State 67, Neumann 60)

Block/Charge Calls

There has been a decent amount of chatter the past few days/weeks on the d3 boards about block/charge calls (not limited to the MIAA board).

In the two situations that stick in my mind, posters were debating calls that were whistled as blocks at the time that they think should have been charges. It wasn't whining about calls that didn't go their team's way, but more about discussing the ever-present gray area in the block/charge rule.

The NCAA tried to eliminate some of that gray area -- and open up space for offense -- with some changed and/or altered rules that were implemented before the 2014 season.

One of those is Rule 4, Section 17, Article 4 which defines legal guarding position. Here's point d:

When the opponent with the ball is airborne, the guard shall have attained legal guarding position before the opponent begins his upward motion with his hands/arms to shoot or pass.

The old rule was that defenders must establish legal guarding position prior to the shooter/passer leaving the playing surface. The new rule pushes that burden further ahead in time, to the point at which the shooter/passer has begun "upward motion with his hands/arms". Back when the rule was new, Coach Vande Streek mentioned in an interview that this would be interpreted to be a player's gather.

So, anyway, here's a couple of screen shots from last night's MIAA Semifinal between Calvin and Alma. This particular call had the Alma contingent (including coach Hargraves) up in arms (and, to be fair, I would have been the same way), but it looks to be a pretty clear by-the-book block call (click to embiggen).

Doug Bradfield was in the middle of the lane, sliding over to defend Jordan Brink. He ended up receiving the blocking foul, for his fifth and final foul of the game. Please excuse the play button symbols in the middle of the shots

The picture on the left is Brink preparing to shoot. He has stopped dribbling and is in the process of bringing the ball up high to shoot. Bradfield is not yet in position.

The picture on the right is the point of contact. Bradfield has obviously moved his feet between the two pictures (it's easy to see because his shoes are the darker maroon color).

It would be a lot closer -- and maybe go the other way -- if we were to take a snapshot of the moment Brink jumped from the court, but that is no longer the reference point.

In this particular case, our MIAA official friends got the call 100% correct.

Calvin Clinches MIAA Tournament Spot With Big Win over Kalamazoo

Calvin strolled into Kalamazoo on Wednesday night and did something they've done precious few times this MIAA season: play 40 minutes of high-quality basketball on both ends of the floor. You could consider the first meetings with Hope and Olivet as such, but other than that they've too often allowed weaker teams to (1) hang around or (2) mount a comeback after they were nearly put away.

That didn't happen on Wednesday as the Knights rolled to a 92-63 road win over the Hornets. The game was never in doubt -- and Calvin's play was never particularly poor -- but Coach Vande Streek kept the players engaged, imploring them not to give away possessions or relax even a bit on defense after a brief 7-0 Kalamazoo run midway through the second half. The players responded and finished the game with enthusiasm.

Calvin built the lead in the first half with tremendous work by Jordan Daley. He didn't miss a shot in the first half and Kalamazoo couldn't keep the ball out of his hands. At the halftime break I looked up and was shocked to see him already with 20 points.

In the second half it was Jordan Brink who took over. Limited to five points in the first half, he added 11 more in the second half, including a cool 3-3 from long range. Cameron Denney also chipped in late, with 12 second-half points, giving him 14 for the game on 4-7 shooting.

The one negative for Calvin was Brad Visser injuring (or re-injuring) his ankle early in the first half. We'll have to wait for a prognosis (he was on the bench with crutches and his ankle wrapped in the second half), but that's a potential offensive weapon Calvin could miss down the stretch.

The Knights clinched a spot in the four-team MIAA Tournament with their win. The worst they could do now is a 9-5 tie with Alma for third place. It's still possible for Alma to win that tiebreaker, so nothing more than the fourth seed is guaranteed.

Up next is the huge rematch with Trine that will serve as the de facto MIAA regular season championship game. A win would give Calvin a hammerlock lead in the conference, guarantee at least the #2 seed in the MIAA tournament (clinching Calvin above Trine), and put them a game away from clinching the #1 seed (either one more Calvin win or one Hope loss).

Calvin Clinches Extra Basketball

No actual MIAA Tournament spots have been clinched for any team, but Calvin (and Trine, for that matter) appear to have guaranteed themselves at least one extra game this season.

With four MIAA games to go (at Kalamazoo, vs. Trine, at Olivet, and at Albion), the Knights find themselves up three games on the fourth/fifth place pairing of Adrian and Alma. The Bulldogs and Scots still have one final head-to-head meeting to play (Feb. 18), so the worst the Knights could do is tie in the standings with the loser of that game.

Should such a thing occur – and let’s be clear, Calvin isn’t going 0-4 down the stretch – and should the tie be made with Adrian, Calvin would be given the fourth seed free and clear (and Adrian eliminated) due to Calvin’s 2-0 head-to-head record. Should the tie be made with Alma, a one-game playoff would occur to determine who’s in as the fourth seed, and who’s out as number five.

The MIAA’s tiebreaking procedure has traditionally been:

• Head to head record
• Record vs. the #1 team
• Record vs. the #2 team
• … etc. etc.
• Record vs. the #7 team
• Record vs. the #8 team
• Coin flip

But when the MIAA went to a four-team tournament a few years back, they changed the tiebreaking procedure so that no team would be eliminated from the tournament due to anything other than head-to-head results. It might get a little funky if three teams are tied – maybe taking the total records against the tied teams – but Calvin’s 2-0 record versus Adrian, 1-1 versus Alma, and 2-0 versus Hope means they’re unlikely to lose out on any such shenanigans amongst tied teams.

So, if two teams are tied at 4th/5th, and they split the season series, the MIAA would allow for a tiebreaker game) probably played on Tuesday given the Semifinals are on Thursday. The winner would be given the fourth seed and the loser would be eliminated. Site selection would be determined using the standard tiebreaking criteria above.

All it’s going to take for Calvin to clinch an actual MIAA tournament spot is one more win (or one more loss for Alma), so we’re looking at a 90% chance of Calvin clinching a berth on Wednesday.

Magic numbers:

Fourth Seed: 1

Third Seed: 2

Second Seed: 3

Number One Seed: 4

Austin Parks on WSJM Radio

Calvin starting guard Austin Parks was profiled on WSJM in Benton Harbor. In the two-minute clip, the Niles native talks about what attracted him to Calvin, the work required in transitioning to college, and the feeling of suiting up for a Rivalry game with Hope. There is a part II coming tomorrow.

Listen below.

Calvin 61, Adrian 49

Box Score
Video Replay
Calvin Recap

Games against Mark White's Adrian squads are never fun or pretty. They're going to play physical in-your-grill defense, and the only thing you can do is weather the storm.

Adrian's an interesting team because they're probably not as bad as their (now) 4-10 record looks. I Tweeted as much before the game. They're not a great team like maybe the Adrian teams from four years ago were, but they've played a difficult schedule making the record deceptive. Their defense rates, according to my efficiency rankings, as a little bit better than average, and they play at a pace that's a little bit slower than average. Combine those two factors and you get games that are going to end up with tighter scoring margins than you might expect.

Still, it's a game Calvin should win, and they ended up taking care of business last night.

It was clear from the get-go that Adrian's entire game plan revolved around denying Jordan Brink open looks. Or even any open space to speak of. They hedged hard on the high ball screens and were quick to double when Brink tried to dribble around the perimeter. This isn't the first -- nor, I'd venture, the last -- time we've seen this strategy this year. Wheaton employed a similar strategy to some effect, but I don't think any opponent has been as committed as Adrian was last night.

With as much doubling as Adrian did last night you'd think Calvin would have been able to find an open man either rolling in the paint or on a wing. That did happen on several occasions -- Daley, Denney, Parks and Dykstra all knocked down threes without defenders in their face -- but it felt like there should have been more opportunities to take advantage of. Part of the explanation is that Adrian's simply good at cutting off passing lanes, but too often the Calvin guards tried to dribble around or through pressure instead of anticipating it and looking to dish the ball.

I think you can see that in the turnover numbers for the guard and wing players: 10 combined between Parks, Daley, Brink, and Canonie.

Still, Calvin ended the day right about where they wanted to be because the offense ended up doing enough, and the defense took care of business against a weaker offense. Something that hasn't really been done this year.

Adrian kept it close early by hitting some threes -- they were 5-9 at the half -- but they weren't getting anything else going. The Knights held the Bulldogs to just 40% shooting on their two-point attempts for the game and grabbed 88% of the available rebounds on defense. The lack of second-chance opportunities and a cold second-half from the arc (1-8) made it impossible for the Bulldogs to get a bucket when they needed it down the stretch.

A layup by Hope transfer Jordan Denham tied the game at 45-45 with 7:30 to play in the game, but Adrian would collect just two more field goals (four points total) the rest of the way. Calvin, on the other hand, went 4-6 from the field and 7-9 from the line to finish the game with a tidy 16-4 run.

Calvin ended the game with a raw defensive efficiency rating of 82. That makes only three above-average defensive performances on the season for the Knights (vs. Manchester, at Hope, at Adrian). The good news is that makes two in-a-row.

I have the Calvin offense rated #16 in all of Division III, but the below average defense has turned what could be a sure-fire Top 25 team into a fringe tournament team. But the NCAA Tournament can't be on the mind right now. Non-conference losses makes a Pool C bid look like a reach, so the Knights have to take things one game at a time in MIAA play. Winning the league is a must, and there are plenty of trap games left.

Next up: Kalamazoo

You Get Once Chance

To make the grab on national TV.

This play was alluded to on the D3hoops message boards. T.J. Huizenga blocked Ben Gardner as he drove to the basket. Not only did the fan's failed catch make the replay, it has been immortalized on this very famous weblog.

Thoughts on the Upcoming MIAA-CCIW Challenge

I actually never know if this is officially referred to as a “classic” or a “challenge”. It has flipped-flopped over the years and has always depended on who’s schedule page you happened to be viewing at the moment. This season, in fact, none of the schools’ online schedule pages call it anything at all, except Wheaton, who simply calls it “CCIW Challenge”.

No one cares? No one cares. Moving on.

Why this is fun

The MIAA-CCIW Challenge isn’t fun in the same way the Big Ten-ACC Challenge* is fun – the latter being one of the best events in sports, in my opinion – but it still serves as a measuring stick (of sorts) that is so frequently missing from Calvin’s non-conference schedule. Sure the GRSHOF games on Thanksgiving weekend are always that, but it’s more difficult to compare to NAIA schools who start their schedule in late October and often have several more games under their belts.

*I’ve often wondered/fantasied about a true MIAA-CCIW challenge which would match up the eight CCIW schools with the eight MIAA schools in the same manner as the Big Ten and ACC do, but the fact of the matter is the MIAA would get destroyed. I think a Calvin or Hope could match up with a top-two CCIW school frequently enough to make that part fun, but the middle and bottom of the CCIW would feast on the middle and bottom of the MIAA. There’s just so much more conference depth over there. The hope most years would be for two or three MIAA wins.

But it’s fun because it’s back to back games against quality Division III programs who also share quite a bit in the way of institutional mindset. Carthage rarely forays into the top tier of the division, but they’ve been a Massey Top-1,000 team (all divisions, including NAIA, which generally equates to the top quarter or third of D3) in every year of his database (going back to 2003).

And it’s fun because of the back-to-back games which allow for direct comparison with a conference rival.

Why this is not fun

This is not fun because every year this weekend carries the weight of potential at-large tournament selection. “Signature wins” aren’t really a thing in the Division III selection process but “head-to-head”, “common opponents”, and “results versus regionally ranked opponents” are, and they often come into play when Wheaton and Carthage is concerned.

It’s also not fun because Calvin hasn’t had as much success the last few years as fans would like. Last year’s 27-point drubbing of Wheaton was a high point, but the loss the night before to Carthage was a result that shouldn’t have happened.

And the results have been especially poor on the other side of the lake. According to the Massey database, Calvin hasn’t beaten either Carthage or Wheaton on Lake Michigan’s western shore since the 2004-05 season when they beat Carthage in the Challenge and Wheaton in the NCAA Tournament (after losing to them in the challenge).

I don’t like to think about that.

About this year

Wheaton comes into play on Friday with a 4-2 record. The (2-point) loss to Defiance is a bit of a surprise, but the Yellow Jackets appear to be of reasonable quality themselves, and they owned the home court advantage for that game. The other loss was by four points at home to (now) #4 Washington U. That’s not a bad result at all.

On the positive side of the ledger they turned in an 11-point victory at #17 Chicago on Wednesday. Wheaton isn’t currently ranked in the current week’s Top-25 (they’re in the Others Receiving Votes category), but perhaps they would be if we were able to call for a re-rank after Wednesday.

Wheaton is a legitimate threat to go 2-0 this weekend. My personal KenPom-like efficiency ratings – which, to be clear, should be taken with a large small sample size caveat – call for likely scores of:

Wheaton 84, Calvin 79 (64% chance of a Wheaton victory)

Wheaton 88, Hope 74 (87% chance of a Wheaton victory)

The Massey Ratings call for a 73-69 win over Calvin and a 75-70 win over Hope (63% and 67% Wheaton win probabilities for those games respectively).

Carthage is having a rougher go this season; they’re 3-3 but have maybe only one positive result. They got hammered by 35 against Washington U. on a neutral site and suffered double-digit losses to St. Francis (NAIA) and UW-LaCrosse. Another negative result is also their one-point overtime win over UC-Santa Cruz (who won four games last season).

The solid-looking result is a 9-point win over a decent-to-good UW-Platteville squad.

My efficiency ratings call for scores of:

Hope 79, Carthage 78 (58% chance of a Hope win)

Calvin 83, Carthage 74 (83% chance of a Calvin win)

The Massey Ratings call for a 73-71 loss to Hope and a 72-69 loss to Calvin (44% and 39% Carthage win probabilities respectively.

Why I seemingly wrote that last section from the CCIW perspective

I have no clue.

What we want to see this weekend

Two wins, obviously.

More specifically: a win over Carthage almost feels like a must if there are any hopes of a Pool C (at large) bid for the tournament. A win over Wheaton isn’t as much of a must, but you’d at least like to see Calvin stay competitive. A double-digit loss would be disheartening.

2-0: Ecstatic

1-1: Probably expected, just hang with Wheaton

0-2: Soul is crushed

Reflecting on Calvin's 108-98 Victory Over Anderson

A few quick reflections on last Saturday's season-opening win over the Anderson Ravens.

Calvin's offense is, and will continue to be, very good.

I don't see any way around this.

And we mostly knew this would be the case going into the season. Jordan Brink is one of the best scorers we've seen in Maroon and Gold in (at least) the last dozen years or so. Tyler Dykstra and Jordan Daley have proven to be efficient scorers. And we saw Austin Parks shoot the three-ball with effectiveness last season.

What we didn't know is how Calvin would replace Tyler Kruis at the center position. Dan Stout, while not an offensive force, has been able to take advantage of the opportunities given to him in producing an above-average scoring efficicney for his career. He's also an adept rebounder -- particularly on the offensive end -- and has shown a remarkable ability to draw fouls and get to the line (where he shoots 70%). But depth was going to be a concern, especially with Stout on the shelf to start the year with a knee injury.

But Calvin found a weapon in 6-7 Freshman Connor VanderBrug. While probably more of a forward than a center, VanderBrug instantly showed the ability to score inside and outside, as well as rebound and handle the ball competently. He made some mistakes -- particularly on the defensive end -- and didn't end up as a terribly efficient scorer for the game, but 13 (points) and 13 (rebounds) as a starter in your first game on campus is terrific.

The lineup of Parks-Brink-Daley-Dykstra-VanderBrug is going to give teams fits with it's combination of size, speed, and shooting ability. Every one of those player can step out and drain a three, and every one of those players can get up the court on a fast break. Going 6-3, 6-7, 6-8 in the frontcourt is what we call "going small" at Calvin, but that's not a small lineup when compared to most every Division III team.

We saw a lot of these matchup problems on Saturday. Calvin's offensive efficiency rating (points per 100 possessions) was a robust 126. They found open three-point looks for the right people, they worked the ball up the court to score quickly in transition, they were effective at finding an open man cutting to the basket, and they really didn't have to force a shot all afternoon. Quality of opponent caveat applies: Anderson wasn't very good last year and probably won't be terrific this year, but offensively the Knights did exactly what they had to do.

Calvin's defense wasn't strong.

98 points is a lot to give up to a team like Anderson. Tip your cap because they made 51% of their threes, but very few of them were of the forced type. The Ravens routinely got open looks for their most deadly shooters and Calvin paid for that. Anderson finished the game with a 114 offensive efficiency rating, which isn't anywhere close to what Calvin wanted to allow.

Some of the younger players (in particular) got lost in the defensive scheme and were too slow to recognize when they needed to get back out and close out the shooter. Anderson shot 51% on 35 three-point attempts which is just not good at all. Some of that was luck, but clearly some portion was the inability to get a hand in the face of the shooter. The 51% is less concerning to me than the 35 attempts, because I think there's a lot of luck/noise in that percentage, but if you give up that many looks -- and most of them were quality looks -- you're not going to be successful very often.

The good news is that Calvin remained effective at protecting the basket. The Ravens shot under 38% on their two-point attempts, and many of the defensive mistakes (seemed to me) to stem from players concentrating too much on protecting the paint and not paying enough attention to their assignment on the wing. I think this type of error can be rectified relatively quickly. I think quite often we see the opposite in the early going of the season: players are too quick to abandon the middle and allow easy baskets inside. My eyes didn't catch that happening too often on Saturday.

Get that three point percentage down from 51% to 37%, and we'd have said the defense was just fine. If Calvin can tune-up that defense in the coming weeks (and I didn't see anything that looked like a long-term problem), it could be a very fun year.

MIAA Coaches Pick Calvin to Win League, Coach Vande Streek Addresses Injury Situation

The annual MIAA pre-season coaches poll was released today with your Calvin Knights sweeping the vote, picking up all seven possible first place votes. Coaches don't include their own team in the vote, so Coach Vande Streek cast his ballot in favor of Hope (who was the unanimous second-place votee).

Michael Applegate of the Holland Sentinel has recorded the vote totals, so check it out there because they'll probably soon disappear from the altogether awful MIAA website*.

*It's a sad state of affairs when one reasonably (and necessarily) directs readers away from your own website and to the Sentinel. Take note MIAA.

But more interesting than the poll -- which offers entertainment value but relatively little in the way of hard-hitting analysis -- is the quote that Applegate gets in his writeup from Vande Streek regarding his perception of the state of the team.

Depsite the vote of confidence, Vande Streek said on a league-wide conference call after the poll was released that his team is struggling with injuries in the preseason.

Daniel Stout, a 6-foot-9 center, is hurt as is guard T.J. Huizenga. Both are seniors.

"I look at our squad and I see a lot of holes," said Vande Streek, in his 19th season at Calvin. "That’s a far cry from a good basketball team at this point."

My understanding via (multiple) second-hand reports is that Dan Stout's injury is considered to be relatively minor. He may be limited early in the season (and miss the exhibition game), but until I hear otherwise, I'm betting on him seeing action in the season opener against Anderson. But injuries -- even those that are ostensibly minor -- are never fun and can have lingering effects, so we'll have to wait and see how it all plays out.

Calvin will certainly need him to come around eventually because the biggest hole on the squad is in the frontcourt where they lost Tyler Kruis, Mickey DeVries, and B.J. Van Loo from last year's team. Until such a time as Stout is 100% (and possibly beyond), we will likely be seeing some of Tyler Dykstra -- who started at the nominal small forward position last year -- at center.

This is the first I've heard of an injury to T.J. Huizenga. That's not great news. But, assuming it's not something that will keep him out for the year (or a chunk of the year), the Knights can weather that storm. If there's one spot on the floor where they're deep, it's the at the 2/3 wing. Jordan Daley, Jordan Brink, and Brad Visser could swallow 70-75 of the 80 available minutes at those spots. That might create a bigger hole behind Austin Parks at the point guard position (if Brink or Daley were to be used at all in that capacity), but they have some options there in sophomores Danny Leach and Nick Kronemeyer as well as freshman Tony Canonie.

UPDATE: The above quote -- or at least a similar one -- is framed a bit differently in a since-posted MLive piece.

"We have a versatile group of players this year," said Vande Streek.  "I think the biggest challenge will be mixing our newcomers in with our veterans because some of our newcomers will be a part of our rotation. That type of mix usually takes some time to jell. We've got a few holes to fill right now so it may take some time for us to become the team we would like to be."

Calvin Ranked #6 in D3hoops.com Preseason Poll

Wow, is all I'm thinking right now.

I fully expected the Calvin Knights to begin the season ranked. If I had to guess I would have picked a number right around the #15 spot where they finished last year. They have a no fewer question marks than anyone else (and maybe more) -- there's a starting front court to replace (complete with league MVP) and the fact that seven of fourteen varsity spots are being filled by players with nothing more than mop-up experience -- but everyone has question marks so you figure you pretty much start off where you finished.

But then you see something like this D3hoop.com preseason poll and the only response is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

Preseason polls are preseason polls which means they are not to be taken very seriously. It's basically people -- educated people, albeit -- guessing with only a tiny bit of information. Not to say Calvin can't end up as a Top 10 team it's just that I didn't expect this. I think they'll probably win 20 games, have a 50-50 shot of winning the league, and hopefully make the tournament, but this takes reasonable expectations and blows them out of the water.

Definitely not to take anything away from D3hoops.com or their associated pollsters -- it's the best D3 poll out there -- it's just that we should remember this is a preseason poll and preseason polls are hard to do because no one knows anything yet.

The #6 ranking marks the Knights' highest position in the D3hoops.com Top 25 poll (I believe) since they finished the 2004-05 season in the #2 spot. Calvin finished as high as #7 two years ago after advancing to the Sweet Sixteen and losing to (then) top-ranked St. Thomas by 1 on the Tommies' home floor.

The only ranked team on Calvin's schedule is #18 Wheaton (Ill.)

Expectations: we has them.

Follow @FFTMAG on Twitter.

Calvin Releases 2014-15 Men's Basketball Roster

Calvin’s Men’s Basketball roster was released on the school’s official athletic website today, giving us our first glimpse of the 2014-15 Knights.

Regarding the Roster, Who is Not on It

It comes as no surprise – but it is still perhaps worth spending a few words here – that the three players from last year’s roster who had exhausted their NCAA eligibility are not found on this year’s version of said roster. These players are, of course, Tyler Kruis, Mickey DeVries, and Jordan Mast.

The type of hard-hitting analysis that can only be found on the electronic pages of Forever Faithful suggests that replacing Kruis and DeVries will be a difficult endeavor. Kruis was a very deserving MVP last year and DeVries only missed All-MIAA status due to what must be deemed massive oversight on the part of the league’s coaches.

DeVries didn’t shoot a lot – he took less than 20% of the team’s shots while on the floor – but he was super-efficient when he did try to score, racking up 1.22 points per weighted shot which put him behind only Jordan Brink among players receiving double-digit minutes per game (Kruis was right behind at 1.20 PPWS while shouldering the largest shooting load of any Calvin player). Also, rebounding.

Jordan Mast – perhaps the most efficient shooter we’ve seen – will also be missed. Not because he contributed something irreplaceable to last year’s squad, but because he represented incredible team depth. He was a known quantity with a competent set of skills – a rotation-quality player for a league championship team. That he was pushed aside for playing time was less to do with a particular deficiency in his game and more to do with the wealth of talent on the roster.

The only unexpected omission is Junior forward B.J. Van Loo. Some sleuthing (thanks to a hot internet tip) reveals that he has transferred back to Grace Bible College. Van Loo was almost surely going to be a rotation player, so, while he wasn’t a particularly efficient scorer or above-average defender, he was a known quantity with a reliable set of skills – a roughly average MIAA player – which makes him a valuable asset that will be missed. Average never gets enough credit.

Regarding the Roster, Who is on It

It’s tough to lose a league MVP, but for this year’s Calvin team that might be made easier by the presence of Jordan Brink, who’s likely the odds-on favorite to win the award this year. Having the best player in the league is a good thing. Again, that’s the hard-hitting analysis that you can only find here.

Brink is the rare player who can shoulder a tremendous shooting load and still hit a high percentage of shots. How efficient is he? If Caleb Veldhouse made field goals and free throws at the same rate as Brink, he would have added 278 points to his career total (or about 2.5 points per game). And he was a guy who already scored nearly 15 points per game.

Joining Brink in the starting backcourt will likely be Austin Parks. Parks spent much of the year coming off the bench, though he did start in the MIAA Championship Game (in place of Tyler Dykstra) as Calvin attempted (and succeeded) in matching up with Hope’s smaller, quicker lineup. He’s an exciting player who acquitted himself well in his first year of real action.

Jordan Daley should also return to the starting lineup, but I’m betting on him to shift to more of a 2/3 wing role. Like the aforementioned MIAA Championship contest, he’ll likely start at the nominal small forward position. Daley was a real treat to watch last year as a Sophomore; he blossomed into a rather efficient scorer and was a lockdown defender by season’s end. The Washington U. broadcasters could not stop raving about his defense in last year’s NCAA Tournament.

Tyler Dykstra will mark his third year as a member of Calvin’s starting lineup. He’s a player we’re going to miss sorely after this season because he’s easy to take for granted. He’s not flashy unless he’s blocking a shot, and Calvin doesn’t run the offense through him, but at the end of the day he’s filled up the stat sheet and contributed in every facet of the game.  With Kruis out of the middle (where he was very effective), it’s possible we see more room open up for Dykstra to operate offensively.

Dan Stout should slide into the starting spot to replace Kruis. He’s been a solid role player for three seasons now, and his job this year is to take advantage of the opportunities that come. Calvin’s offense is going to be based on the perimeter, so Dan’s going to have the opportunity to do what he’s done so well off the bench: rebound, draw fouls, and knock down his shots from the line.

The sixth man right now looks like Sophomore Brad Visser. He was an exciting scorer who took on an ever expanding role as the season went on. Brad didn’t appear to lack for confidence as a freshman – he wasn’t afraid to hoist a shot – and that wasn’t a bad thing because he made a lot of them. He’ll probably need to be a bit more discerning with his selection, but he’s a guy who should always have the green light to launch an open three.

Also in the rotation will likely be Senior guard/forward T.J. Huizenga. Huizenga isn’t going to be a scorer, but he’s going to defend, rebound, hustle, and avoid mistakes. He’s a benchmark player. You’re not afraid to put him in the game, but if others are pushing him for playing time, it means you have a good team.

This is the exact point in the process where the thinking shifts from “dang, this is a pretty solid team” to “dang, who else is going to play?” Every player with notable varsity playing time has been named, and we’ve only named seven of the 14 players. This is concerning because of the unknown factor, but it’s also exciting because of the youth factor. Eight of the 14 players on the roster are underclassmen which isn’t a problem if they’re good.

Guard Danny Leach and big Michael Welch both split time between Varsity and JV last year and played in mop-up minutes with the big club. Of the two Welch is the more likely one to see a significant role increase (due to the experience mix between bigs and smalls on the roster), but both have upside and promise.

Joining them in the Sophomore ranks are Nick Kronemeyer and Seth Van Engen, both up from the JV squad. I must admit to knowing almost nothing about either one, except that they both also played football in high school.

Also in the ranks of the unknown are three freshmen: Connor VanderBrug, Tony Canonie, and Nick Goeglein. Of the three I’ve only received second hand reports on VanderBrug, but excitement surrounding him is exceedingly high.

Depth Chart

Depth chart by class looks like (with positions loosely assigned):

	SR	JR	SO	FR
G	Jordan Brink	Austin Parks	Nick Kronemeyer
G			Danny Leach	Tony Canonie
G/F	TJ Huizenga	Jordan Daley	Brad Visser
F	Tyler Dykstra		Seth VanEngen	Connor VanderBrug
C	Daniel Stout		Michael Welch	Nick Goeglein

Guessing at the playing rotation is difficult right now with so many new faces so I can guess nothing better than:

	1	2	3	4
G	Austin Parks		Danny Leach	Nick Kronemeyer
G	Jordan Brink	Brad Visser		Tony Canonie
G/F	Jordan Daley	TJ Huizenga
F	Tyler Dykstra	Connor VanderBrug		Seth VanEngen
C	Dan Stout		Michael Welch	Nick Goeglein

Uninformative, I know. I hate projecting freshmen into rotation roles, but I've read enough good things about VanderBrug to know that's not out of the question. But even with him I have eight rotation spots penciled in which means at least one of the remaining six should see major minutes, if not two more.

If it comes down to it, Parks, Brink, Daley, Visser, and Huizenga could lock down the 1-3 positions (though there's room for another player or two if they force their way in), but the Knights will certainly be in need of another 4/5 in the mix. I'll always give the nod to the guy who's been around (which is Welch), but that's nothing more than a guess.

And So Graduates The Most Efficient Shooter Of The Generation

Jordan Mast
Image probably used without permission.

One thing I haven’t done with much regularity over the past few years is update my Facebook status. One thing I have done is maintain an excel-based statistical record of Calvin basketball on my computer. I have seasonal data – at some level – for every year through 1998 which now makes 17 seasons.

One thing I do with the data is compile career totals for players.

It’s fun to look back and remember just how crazy-efficient Andy Draayer was as a shooter due to the high (1) quantity and (2) quality (in a percentage sense) of three point shots he took as a player. Draayer’s .611 career effective field goal percentage is crazy-good (especially considering the frequency with which he shot the ball), but it’s not the best.

The best mark, among the 66 players who hoisted at least 100 career field goal attempts* over this time span, is the .617 eFG% that Jordan Mast compiled over the last three seasons.

*The best mark without any sort of threshold applied is Michael Fabiyi’s 1.000 career eFG% (earned in 2011 by going 1-1 from the field).

Mast wasn’t like Draayer who could take over a game by knocking down extremely deep or contested three pointers, but he did have a role which he filled admirably. By netting the team more points per field goal attempt than any other player who donned the Maroon and Gold over the last 17 years.

Career Top 5 (1998-2014)

Rank	Player	Career FGA	Career eFG%
1	Jordan Mast	167	.617
2	Andy Draayer	671	.611
3	Brian Roelofs	173	.595
4	Derek Griffin	585	.592
5	Danny Rodts	569	.576

Active Career Top 5 (no minimum)

Rank	Player	Career FGA	Career eFG%
1	Jordan Brink	679	.566
2	Brad Visser	95	.542
3	Tyler Dykstra	337	.542
4	Jordan Daley	214	.519
5	T.J. Huizenga	67	.493

Graduating

Rank	Player	Career FGA	Career eFG%
1	Jordan Mast	167	.617
12	Mickey DeVries	366	.552
20	Tyler Kruis	848	.538

(For context, Calvin's average eFG% since 1998 is .511)