Previewing the 2021-22 MIAA Season

All eight MIAA men's basketball teams have completed their non-conference schedules and will move to conference play beginning on January 5.

Coming into the season, Trine was the heavy favorite after returning nearly everyone from the team that went 17-1 (5-0 MIAA) and won the conference tournament in the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season. That expectation has perhaps shifted after a non-conference season that saw Trine lose four games (and record a few uncomfortable wins against inferior competition).

Calvin has seemingly supplanted the Thunder as the league favorite as league play begins on Wednesday. Here's a look at where each team stands in the efficiency ratings I run for all of Division III men's basketball:

 

D3 Rank	Team	AdjEM	AdjO	AdjD
25	Calvin	22.4	113.8	91.5
72	Albion	13.8	104.7	90.9
70	Trine	14.0	101.4	87.5
77	Hope	12.6	108.5	95.9
167	Olivet	3.0	96.8	93.8
258	Kalamazoo	-3.7	101.3	105.0
267	Adrian	-4.5	97.2	101.7
297	Alma	-8.1	96.6	104.6

A quick explainer for those who haven't followed my ratings: Adjusted efficiency margin is the difference between a team's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings (the 'adjusted' means the calculations are iterated to account for quality of opponent). This is the number of points they'd be expected to outscore an average D3 team in 100 possessions. The offensive rating (AdjO) is how many points they'd be expected to score (per 100 possessions) and the defensive rating (AdjD) is how many points they'd be expected to give up (per 100 possessions).

So based on results* to date, we have something like four tiers of teams forming in the MIAA. Calvin is alone in tier 1 as a (fringe) Top-25 caliber team, Albion, Trine, and Hope are bunched up very tightly in tier 2, Olivet is in their own tier a bit above D3 average, and Kalamazoo, Adrian, and Alma are in the fourth tier a bit below average.

*I only calculate data from D3 vs. D3 games so nothing against D1, D1, or NAIA is included here.

The cool thing about these efficiency ratings is that we can use them to predict scores for individual matchups. If we add in a few points for home court advantage, we can predict the outcome of any game. So, for example, my computer favors Calvin over Albion in Wednesday's conference opener 74-72 and gives Calvin a 59% chance of winning the game. If I run these percentages for all 56 conference games, I get the following expected standings:

 

Team	Expected Wins	Expected Losses	Expected PF	Expected PA
Calvin	11.8	2.2	1148	957
Albion	9.5	4.5	1061	969
Trine	9.5	4.5	1000	910
Hope	9.1	4.9	1078	1001
Olivet	6.0	8.0	1060	1098
Kalamazoo	4.0	10.0	967	1076
Adrian	3.4	10.6	1065	1203
Alma	2.7	11.3	960	1124

Now, obviously, the standings won't end up exactly like this. Someone (Olivet) is going to win some games they're not supposed to win and we'll likely end up with more bunching towards the middle as teams get familiar with each other. But that's the way the computer sees the league shaping up before we play the games.

For Calvin in particular, they're going to have to make hay the first time through the league schedule as they have Hope, Trine, and Olivet at home and only Albion on the road of the other MIAA teams with a positive adjusted efficiency margin. They'll really need to be 5-2 (or preferably better) in those first seven games to feel really good about their chances to win the regular season conference title.

Looking ahead to the NCAA Tournament, the MIAA is most probably a one-bid league. It's not likely that the tournament runner up will have the resume required to receive an at-large bid. Most of the league is exiting non-conference play with a strong strength of schedule, but the league's overall non-conference record means those SOS numbers are going to decrease as we go.

I see Calvin, Hope, Albion, and Trine all staying a fair bit above the .500 strength-of-schedule Mendoza line that is the de facto requirement for NCAA Tournament selection, but not so far above that they'll be a strong contender unless they're also touting winning percentages in the .850 range (or so). That's... probably not going to happen. The best case for an at-large berth from the MIAA is for one of these teams to go 12-2 or 13-1 in conference play and then lose in the conference tournament final, and even that might not be enough to escape the bubble.

Turning our attention to opening night on Wednesday, it looks like we have a great slate of competitive games. Here's what my score predictor expects:

Away		Home		Home %	Away%	Pace	Line	Total
Olivet	86	Adrian	83	40%	60%	89	+3.0	169.5
Trine	66	Hope	68	60%	40%	69	-3.0	134.0
Kalamazoo	72	Alma	73	53%	47%	69	-1.0	145.0
Calvin	74	Albion	72	41%	59%	72	+2.5	146.0

All four games are 60%-40% or tighter and none of the expected score differentials are wider than one possession. The winners -- particularly of Trine-Hope and Calvin-Albion will have a leg up in the conference race. It should be a good night of basketball. 

Calvin Clinches MIAA Tournament Spot With Big Win over Kalamazoo

Calvin strolled into Kalamazoo on Wednesday night and did something they've done precious few times this MIAA season: play 40 minutes of high-quality basketball on both ends of the floor. You could consider the first meetings with Hope and Olivet as such, but other than that they've too often allowed weaker teams to (1) hang around or (2) mount a comeback after they were nearly put away.

That didn't happen on Wednesday as the Knights rolled to a 92-63 road win over the Hornets. The game was never in doubt -- and Calvin's play was never particularly poor -- but Coach Vande Streek kept the players engaged, imploring them not to give away possessions or relax even a bit on defense after a brief 7-0 Kalamazoo run midway through the second half. The players responded and finished the game with enthusiasm.

Calvin built the lead in the first half with tremendous work by Jordan Daley. He didn't miss a shot in the first half and Kalamazoo couldn't keep the ball out of his hands. At the halftime break I looked up and was shocked to see him already with 20 points.

In the second half it was Jordan Brink who took over. Limited to five points in the first half, he added 11 more in the second half, including a cool 3-3 from long range. Cameron Denney also chipped in late, with 12 second-half points, giving him 14 for the game on 4-7 shooting.

The one negative for Calvin was Brad Visser injuring (or re-injuring) his ankle early in the first half. We'll have to wait for a prognosis (he was on the bench with crutches and his ankle wrapped in the second half), but that's a potential offensive weapon Calvin could miss down the stretch.

The Knights clinched a spot in the four-team MIAA Tournament with their win. The worst they could do now is a 9-5 tie with Alma for third place. It's still possible for Alma to win that tiebreaker, so nothing more than the fourth seed is guaranteed.

Up next is the huge rematch with Trine that will serve as the de facto MIAA regular season championship game. A win would give Calvin a hammerlock lead in the conference, guarantee at least the #2 seed in the MIAA tournament (clinching Calvin above Trine), and put them a game away from clinching the #1 seed (either one more Calvin win or one Hope loss).

Calvin beats Kalamazoo

The score was 86-59.

Analysis

Calvin is much better than Kalamazoo.

Getting a Lift From Some Fresh Men

Calvin 77, Kalamazoo 65 (box score)

A really nice win for the Knights. Not so much that they won (it was 'just' Kalamazoo), but they never really allowed the Hornets to get within striking distance during the home stretch. It seemed like the final ten minutes was played almost exclusively with a double-digit Calvin lead. It wasn't a twenty-something point blowout like the home meeting with Kalamazoo was, but it was still comfortable nonetheless.

Game Bullets

• The Massey Ratings called for a four point Calvin victory, so the twelve point win was a decent 'over-performance'. It's not that I'm looking to next year already, but I really like the experience that some of the younger players are getting. It should pay dividends next season and beyond.
•  There was at least one time during the game where every Knight player on the court was either a freshman or a first year varsity player. It was both scary and exciting. These five players: Van Eck, Mast, Dykstra, Nadeau, and Huizenga combined for 71 minutes and 21 points.
• Tyler Kruis played like a man among boys on the offensive end. He didn't back down one bit against the Hornet big men -- even likely first team MIAA center Joe Prepolec -- choosing instead to power right through them. The result was 16 points and a perfect field goal percentage.
• If I had to pick a league MVP today, I'd give the nod to Nate Snuggerud of Hope, but Tom Snikkers has turned up his level of play big time. He's fifth in the league in scoring at 16.3 ppg, second in rebounding with 7.6 per game, and sixth in assists with 3.1 per game. If he keeps his scoring efficiency turned up for the last four games of the season, then he could end up on the short list of viable candidates.
• I bet Matt DeBoer's knee is barking today. He went down in a heap holding a knee late in the first half and had to be helped off the floor by a trainer. I had no doubt in my mind that his season was over, but he came back out after halftime to finish the game. Another serious injury was the last thing Calvin needed.
• Even though Adrian lost to Trine on Saturday -- leaving us with a three way tie for second -- Calvin's chances for the #2 seed in the MIAA tournament are quite low. The two losses to Adrian effectively keep the Bulldogs a game ahead of the Knights in the standings. The most likely tournament scenario still looks like Calvin at Adrian in the semifinals.

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Stats-and-More versus Kalamazoo

Win Probability

I’ve highlighted a few of the ‘bigger’ plays of the game. For Kalamazoo it was Adam Peter’s two point shot in the first half that gave the Hornets a six point lead – it would be their biggest lead of the evening – the win probably graph gave Calvin only a 30% chance of coming back to win at this point.

Calvin’s top play of the night was a three point play by Tom Snikkers just one minute into the second half. David Rietema came up with a steal and found Snikkers streaking toward the hoop. Snikkers received the pass, drew contact, and laid the ball up and in. He hit the free throw to give the Knights a three point lead – a lead they would not relinquish. This play netted Calvin 30% in the win probability column, from about 50% up to about 80%.

The final play I called out was a jump shot by Bryan Powell that gave the Knights a nine point lead with under ten minutes to play. The result of the play added about 14% to Calvin’s win probability total, bumping their percentage up to 96%.

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Joe Prepolec Wears Tights

Just saying

Calvin 68, Kalamazoo 47 (box score)

Can't describe how much of a relief it was to see Calvin pull away and win this game by a comfortable margin. It surely wasn't pretty, but the Knights clamped down on defense -- and provided enough offense -- to coast to a respectable 21 point victory. Kalamazoo is far from good, but Calvin needed to show that they're better than the 'bottom half', and I think they ended up doing that tonight.

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Kalamazoo Preview

	Game Fourteen (5-8, 0-2)
Who	Kalamazoo Hornets (6-7, 1-1)
Where	Van Noord Arena
When	Wednesday, January 11 -- 8:00 PM
Audio	Stretch Internet
Video	Stretch Internet, MIAA Gameday
Stats	Live Stats, MIAA Gameday

When We Last Met
It was Calvin winning a three point squeaker in Kalamazoo in early February of last year. This game was back-and-forth early on, but Calvin wouldn’t lead from the 10:00 mark in the first half until the 10:00 mark in the second half. The game was tight from this point on, but Kalamazoo was ultimately undone by their inability to make shots down the stretch. The Hornets managed just five points (2-10 from the field) in the final seven minutes of the game. This would be Calvin’s only win in a four game stretch that included home losses to Hope and Adrian and a road loss at Olivet.

About Kalamazoo
The Kalamazoo Hornets are 6-7 on the year. They don’t have any wins that would be considered “signature”. They’ve beaten most of the really bad teams on their schedule (Earlham, Northland, and Olivet), but they haven’t beaten anyone of even marginal quality all year (their best two wins are against Bluffton and Denison). But as I need to keep reminding myself, Calvin might not be considered to be “of marginal quality” right now themselves, so Kalamazoo’s suspect results versus a suspect schedule should not be cause for extreme optimism for Knight fans.

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The Replacements



Yes Woody, Seniors will have to be replaced.


Zac and I (and our wives, and my child) drove out to Minneapolis for Memorial weekend, so we had lots of time to discuss sports (mostly Tigers baseball and Calvin hoops). We left Friday after work (with an expected 3:00 AM (EST) arrival time, so we needed to keep conversation going to ensure the driver stayed alert.

Anyway, one of the topics that came up was the outlook for the 2012 MIAA season. Who will be the favorite? Who’s going to fill out the top four? We couldn’t really decide, so we played a rousing game of “better or worse”. Our reactions for each teams was as follows:

Adrian: lots of young players – “better”.
Albion: losing two starters – perhaps “marginally worse”.
Alma: can’t get much worse – “even”.
Calvin: losing good players, but there’s a core of young talent – a biased “marginally better”.
Hope: losing Bowser, Dickerson, and Tanis – “worse”.
Kalamazoo: losing Ryan Clark – “worse”
Olivet: losing “everyone” – “much worse”
Trine: lots of young players – “better”

I’m not saying that this is accurate, but that’s what the gut told us without looking at rosters or playing time or scoring averages. We eventually figured the standings would look something like this:

1 – Calvin – The slight favorite, but not a lock.
2 – Hope – still a very good team. Could win the league or end up third.
3 – Adrian – Will be top three. Could challenge the top two, but they were “only” 7-7 last year.
4 – Albion – Because they’re always in the top four.
5 – Trine – They have enough young players to make a jump in the standings.
6 – Kalamazoo – Hard to replace Ryan Clark, but they won’t be at the bottom.
7 – Olivet – It’s going to be a long year. Losing a ton of talent.
8 – Alma – Still bad.

But I wanted to get a real look at who’s staying, and who’s leaving to get a better of idea of how difficult it will actually be for each team to find replacements. So I crunched some numbers.

Continue Reading This Post >>

The Tom Snikkers Show

Calvin 72, Kalamazoo 69 (box)

The first half was deja vu all over again.Calvin shot only 36% from the floor, allowed Kalamazoo to shoot 48%, lost the rebounding battle 19-17, and trailed on the scoreboard 39-31.

Tom Snikkers seemed like the only one who wanted to score. Tommy notched 13 of Calvin's 31 first half points on 5 of 10 shooting. I guess we should also applaud Jordan Brink's first half. He added seven points on 2-3 shooting (plus a few free throws). Brink and Snikkers combined for 20 points on (7-13 from the floor), so the rest of the team only managed 11 points (4-17, only 23.5%). YIKES!

The Kalamazoo defense is for real. They're very active and aggressive, and they don't allow very many good looks at the basket, but that first-half shooting percentage was unacceptable. Thankfully, the second half was a different story.

Snikkers was again the leading scorer for the half with 14 (5-9), but he got much more support from his teammates. The rest of the Knights chipped in 27 points and shot a much more respectable 48% from the floor.

Game Chart

Player	%Min	%Shots	eFG%	PPWS	FTr	Ar	TO%	Rb%
Powell	0.48	0.24	0.571	1.14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03
Salo	0.50	0.10	0.500	1.00	0.00	0.16	0.00	0.12
Rodts	0.80	0.16	0.438	0.88	0.00	0.22	0.11	0.04
Snikkers	0.65	0.47	0.553	1.18	0.42	0.40	0.15	0.18
Schuster	0.53	0.22	0.429	0.86	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03
Brink	0.50	0.13	0.875	1.82	0.50	0.19	0.17	0.15
Haverdink	0.20	0.16	0.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.07
Schnyders	0.38	0.30	0.571	1.07	0.43	0.00	0.32	0.16
Kruis	0.58	0.08	0.333	0.67	0.00	0.07	0.00	0.05
DeBoer	0.18	0.18	0.000	0.00	0.00	0.42	0.00	0.26
DeYoung	0.23	0.00	0.000	1.05	0.00	0.16	0.00	0.07
Total	1.00	1.00	0.500	1.04	0.24	0.56	0.17	0.55

Tom's 27 points came in a very efficient manner. Sometimes players reach high point totals simply because they take a lot of shots (like Prepolec did tonight, more later), but Snikkers effectively shot over 55% for the game, scoring a nice and efficient 1.18 points every time he looked to score (PPWS).

The minutes were spread more evenly tonight than I recall in recent games. Eight guys played at least 15 minutes, and three more played more then seven. I'm not sure that I particularly love this distribution of minutes, but I do love seeing Brink and Kruis play 20 minutes.

Speaking of Kruis, he's become a fantastic interior defender. He moved into a tie for the league lead in blocked shots with six tonight, but he's had significantly fewer minutes than co-leader Joe Prepolec. Kruis did a number on Prepolec defensively in this game. Prepolec's final scoring line looks good with 21 points, but he only shot 39% and wasn't terribly efficient (0.96 points per weighted shot). Four of Prepolec's 18 shots were blocked by Kruis.

Up Next
A very big road game with Olivet. I haven't gotten into the stats yet, but I like how the Knights match up with the Comets. McClary is a load to handle, but they don't really have a threatening three point attack, so double or triple down on the big man and walk away with the win (probably won't be that easy).

Calvin wasn't ranked in the first set of NCAA regional rankings, but they may still have a shot at an at-large tournament should they fail to win the automatic qualifier that comes with the MIAA Tournament championship. Their margin for error will be small though, and they certainly can't afford more than one more regular season loss (if they can even afford that).

Kalamazoo Snow-Special Preview

Game	Twenty
Who	Kalamazoo Hornets
Where	Kalamazoo, MI
When	Thursday -- 7:30 PM
Web Video	none
Web Audio	Audio
LiveStats	Stats
Directions	Google Maps

When We Last Met
It was the worst game ever.

Kalamazoo's Ryan Clark exploded for 32 points, the Hornets (effectively) shot 51% from the floor, Calvin shot (effectively) 35% for the game, and the Hornets picked up their first win on Calvin's home floor since 1996.

I don't want to dismiss the Hornets; they've picked up their level of play in the conference season and they now look like a dangerous team, but it was still a perfect storm of events that lead to their win over the Knights. It was almost certainly Calvin's worst game of the season, and yet they were right in the ballgame until the final minute.

Matchup

Matchup	Calvin	Kzoo	Advantage
Calvin eFG% vs. Kzoo DeFG%	0.517	0.483	-
Calvin DeFG% vs. Kzoo eFG%	0.479	0.506	-
Calvin TOr vs. Kzoo DTOr	0.21	0.20	-
Calvin DTOr vs. Kzoo TOr	0.20	0.20	-
Calvin ORb% vs. Kzoo DRb%	0.368	0.695	Calvin
Calvin DRb% vs. Kzoo ORb%	0.698	0.230	Calvin
Calvin FTr vs. Kzoo DFTr	0.33	0.42	Calvin
Calvin DFTr vs. Kzoo FTr	0.31	0.36	Calvin
Calvin OEff vs. Kzoo DEff	107.5	100.6	Calvin
Calvin DEff vs. Kzoo OEff	101.8	98.2	-

As long as Calvin shoots above 35%, they should maintain a pretty hefty statistical advantage in this one.

I don't have much respect for the scoring ability of any of the Hornets beyond Joe Prepolec and Ryan Clark. Maybe throw Eric Fishman in there as well, but they have a huge dropoff in scoring after him.

I've been really liking Calvin's interior defense, so Prepolec doesn't really scare me all that much, but we all saw what Ryan Clark can do with an open three pointer earlier in the year. Gotta be aware of where Clark is, and don't give him the good looks.

I think the Knights will be just fine in this one.

Sure-to-be-wrong Prediction
Calvin by 7
Need to win level: High
Expected to win level: High
Massey Prediction: Calvin 76, Kalamazoo 73 (60% chance of victory).

Plus/Minus Versus Kalamazoo

I really didn't want to revisit this game, but I guess I must.

Game Chart:

Player	(+)	(-)	(+/-)	MIN	(+)/min	(-)/min	(+/-)/min
Brink	44	36	8	23	1.91	1.57	0.35
DeBoer	5	7	-2	4	1.25	1.75	-0.50
DeYoung	14	7	7	8	1.75	0.88	0.88
Haverdink	10	29	-19	9	1.11	3.22	-2.11
Kruis	32	38	-6	20	1.60	1.90	-0.30
Powell	42	31	11	20	2.10	1.55	0.55
Rodts	45	51	-6	29	1.55	1.76	-0.21
Salo	24	37	-13	17	1.41	2.18	-0.76
Schnyders	46	35	11	24	1.92	1.46	0.46
Schuster	37	38	-1	20	1.85	1.90	-0.05
Snikkers	41	56	-15	26	1.58	2.15	-0.58
Team	340	365	-25	200	1.70	1.83	-0.13

Starters are in bold.

That's eleven guys. Coach Vande Streek doesn't usually play more than a ten man rotation (and often nine), so who's getting left out? Haverdink and DeBoer both saw their minutes reduced, but I don't know that that's the long-term plan.

Looking at the minutes played from the last couple of games, it appears that Haverdink is the favorite to win the last spot. I think I'm OK with that. DeBoer has shown that he can be a factor on offense, and Haverdink hasn't, but DeBoer is also prone to mistakes and turnovers. I think, for the ninth or tenth man, I'd rather have a safe, but quiet, player than a guy that could either score 10 points or turn it over 10 times.
Season Chart: (sorted by (+/-))

Player	(+)	(-)	(+/-)	MIN	(+)/min	(-)/min	(+/-)/min
Brink	509	417	92	234	2.18	1.78	0.39
Schuster	487	410	77	232	2.10	1.77	0.33
Powell	506	437	69	250	2.02	1.75	0.28
Snikkers	546	493	53	271	2.01	1.82	0.20
Rodts	585	540	45	297	1.97	1.82	0.15
Schnyders	375	347	28	188	1.99	1.85	0.15
DeBoer	235	209	26	115	2.04	1.82	0.23
DeYoung	191	176	15	96	1.99	1.83	0.16
Fabiyi	8	1	7	4	2.00	0.25	1.75
Greene	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Rietema	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Vallie	23	24	-1	15	1.53	1.60	-0.07
Haverdink	322	327	-5	173	1.86	1.89	-0.03
Kruis	179	187	-8	110	1.63	1.70	-0.07
Salo	24	37	-13	17	1.41	2.18	-0.76
Team	3990	3605	385	2002	1.99	1.80	0.19

I was a little bit disappointed that Jordan didn't start this game, but he still had the most minutes of any of the guards, and I guess that's what's important. I think we'll eventually be seeing Salo, Powell, and Brink all in the 20-25 minute range as we get deeper into conference play.

I found it interesting to compare the 'Team' line on the game chart with the season chart. The defense wasn't that far off of the season average (0.03 high), but the offense was the big killer. As a team, they scored 0.3 points per minute (12 points for the game) less than their average.

I'm interested to see how Salo's numbers start to trend. He's a different type of player than either Brink or Powell, but I don't think he's really a -13. Not even close. He seemed maybe a step slow on defense, but I'll reserve judgemnets until he gets a little more playing time under his belt. It's good to see him out there.

Giving It Right Back

Kalamazoo 73, Calvin 68

And just like that Calvin gave back every* advantage they had gained by beating Hope on the road on Wednesday.

*Actually this probably isn't true. I thought it was at first, but on a second look, beating Hope and losing to Kalamazoo is better, in the eyes of the tournament committee, than vice versa. One of the primary criteria for tournament selection is "in-region results versus regionally ranked opponents." Hope will, in all likely hood, be regionally ranked this season, so, for that category, Calvin is 1-0.

Let's give a hat tip to Kalamazoo for executing their defense well. They seemed to "want it more," and that's disturbing to me as a Calvin fan.

Calvin's defense simply wasn't good. They were slow rotating out to guard the three point shooter, several players got lost around screens, and they were a step slower than the Hornets in general. Kalamazoo moved the ball around well, and it always seemed that they were able to find the open man.

In the span of two games, we've probably seen the best and worst the Knights can play.

Terrible effort aside, this was still a game that Calvin could have won. The starters were 1-12 from the three point line, and the bench was 2-7. Many of those were nice open looks that just didn't go down. Two or three times, the shot seemed to be halfway down before rattling out. If even one more of those shots went down, we'd probably be here talking about escaping with a win.

Game Chart:

Player	%Min	%Shots	eFG%	PPWS	FTr	Ar	TO%	Rb%
Powell	0.50	0.19	0.167	0.58	0.33	0.21	0.22	0.05
Salo	0.43	0.11	0.333	0.67	0.00	0.38	0.50	0.06
Rodts	0.73	0.19	0.111	0.55	0.44	0.00	0.34	0.10
Snikkers	0.65	0.43	0.444	0.93	0.17	0.18	0.20	0.24
Schuster	0.50	0.16	0.500	1.01	0.40	0.00	0.00	0.14
Brink	0.58	0.16	0.833	1.75	0.50	0.00	0.12	0.00
Haverdink	0.23	0.14	0.500	0.81	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.11
Schnyders	0.60	0.18	0.286	1.06	1.29	0.19	0.00	0.04
Kruis	0.50	0.13	0.000	0.00	0.00	0.10	0.25	0.10
DeBoer	0.10	0.00	0.000	2.11	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.24
DeYoung	0.20	0.31	0.250	0.67	0.25	0.00	0.00	0.30
Team	1.00	1.00	0.352	0.89	0.42	0.43	0.20	0.57

I seems to me that the Knights were in an offensive rut. They were content to pass the ball around the perimeter until someone like Rodts or Schuster put up a three, or until Snikker or Schnyders tried to drive to the bucket. There wasn't much creativity, and there wasn't much movement.

Kudos to Jordan Brink who consistently puts up efficient offensive performances. Unfortunately, one of his three pointers was made after the outcome was sealed. He needs to look to score more because he's quite good at it.

The worrisome part is that they seemed to be totally befuddled by Kalamzoo's defense, and I don't think Kalamazoo's defense is all that good. I just hope that they aren't incapable of scoring every time an opponent steps up the intensity.

Kalamazoo Preview

Game	Thirteen
Who	Kalamazoo
Where	Van Noord Arena
When	Sat. - 3:00 PM
Web Video	Video
Web Audio	Audio
LiveStats	Stats
Tickets	$5, $3

When We Last Met
Calvin was in the middle of the conference race when Kzoo came to town last February. The Knights didn't mess around. Calvin grabbed a 13 point halftime lead, but didn't stop there. A second half steal-and-dunk by Bryan Powell (!) stretched the lead to 30 with 4:30 left to play in the game. It would end up as an 86-59 win for the home team. The aforementioned Bryan Powell lead the Knights in scoring with 18 points.

Matchup

Matchup	Calvin	Kalamazoo	Advantage
Calvin eFG% vs. Kzoo DeFG%	0.531	0.492	Calvin
Calvin DeFG% vs. Kzoo eFG%	0.497	0.468	Calvin
Calvin TO% vs. Kzoo DTO%	0.21	0.21	-
Calvin DTO% vs. Kzoo TO%	0.19	0.21	-
Calvin ORb% vs. Kzoo DRb%	0.368	0.701	-
Calvin DRb% vs. Kzoo ORb%	0.697	0.239	Calvin
Calvin FTr vs. Kzoo DFTr	0.31	0.43	-
Calvin DFTr vs. Kzoo FTr	0.32	0.32	Calvin
Calvin OEff vs. Kzoo DEff	108.8	100.0	Calvin
Calvin DEff vs. Kzoo OEff	103.3	91.5	Calvin

Kalamazoo comes in as the heavy underdog, Massey gives them only a 5% chance of victory, but that's not to say that they don't have some good players capable of doing some damage.

6-6 Junior center Joe Prepolec would be considered the best center in the conference (and possibly an MVP candidate) if it wasn't for one Mr. Michael McClary of Olivet. Prepolec is leading the Hornets with 15.9 points, 6.9 rebounds per game, and he leads the league with nearly 2.5 blocked shots per game.

Another player to watch out for is 6-3 Senior forward Ryan Clark. Clark is second on the team in scoring with an average of 11.9 ppg. He likes to shoot the three ball, he has 68 attempts already, and he's been fairly accurate, making nearly 40%.

That being said, I think the Knights will have little trouble on Saturday. Their biggest opponent will be themselves. If they can avoid the turnover bug that's bitten them several times this year, they'll put up more than enough points on the board.

These types of games (against poor conference teams) usually scare me. I don't know if I'm a believer in "trap" games or "let down games", but if there ever was one, this is it. The Knights are coming off of a big win, on the road, against a rival, and now they come home to face one of the poorer teams in the league. Kalamazoo will get up for Calvin, but it could be tougher for the Knights to get psyched up for this one. But this is really just an irrational fear of mine, I think.

Sure to Be Wrong Prediction
Calvin by 13
Need to win level: High
Expected to win level: High