Previewing the 2021-22 MIAA Season

All eight MIAA men's basketball teams have completed their non-conference schedules and will move to conference play beginning on January 5.

Coming into the season, Trine was the heavy favorite after returning nearly everyone from the team that went 17-1 (5-0 MIAA) and won the conference tournament in the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season. That expectation has perhaps shifted after a non-conference season that saw Trine lose four games (and record a few uncomfortable wins against inferior competition).

Calvin has seemingly supplanted the Thunder as the league favorite as league play begins on Wednesday. Here's a look at where each team stands in the efficiency ratings I run for all of Division III men's basketball:

 

D3 Rank	Team	AdjEM	AdjO	AdjD
25	Calvin	22.4	113.8	91.5
72	Albion	13.8	104.7	90.9
70	Trine	14.0	101.4	87.5
77	Hope	12.6	108.5	95.9
167	Olivet	3.0	96.8	93.8
258	Kalamazoo	-3.7	101.3	105.0
267	Adrian	-4.5	97.2	101.7
297	Alma	-8.1	96.6	104.6

A quick explainer for those who haven't followed my ratings: Adjusted efficiency margin is the difference between a team's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings (the 'adjusted' means the calculations are iterated to account for quality of opponent). This is the number of points they'd be expected to outscore an average D3 team in 100 possessions. The offensive rating (AdjO) is how many points they'd be expected to score (per 100 possessions) and the defensive rating (AdjD) is how many points they'd be expected to give up (per 100 possessions).

So based on results* to date, we have something like four tiers of teams forming in the MIAA. Calvin is alone in tier 1 as a (fringe) Top-25 caliber team, Albion, Trine, and Hope are bunched up very tightly in tier 2, Olivet is in their own tier a bit above D3 average, and Kalamazoo, Adrian, and Alma are in the fourth tier a bit below average.

*I only calculate data from D3 vs. D3 games so nothing against D1, D1, or NAIA is included here.

The cool thing about these efficiency ratings is that we can use them to predict scores for individual matchups. If we add in a few points for home court advantage, we can predict the outcome of any game. So, for example, my computer favors Calvin over Albion in Wednesday's conference opener 74-72 and gives Calvin a 59% chance of winning the game. If I run these percentages for all 56 conference games, I get the following expected standings:

 

Team	Expected Wins	Expected Losses	Expected PF	Expected PA
Calvin	11.8	2.2	1148	957
Albion	9.5	4.5	1061	969
Trine	9.5	4.5	1000	910
Hope	9.1	4.9	1078	1001
Olivet	6.0	8.0	1060	1098
Kalamazoo	4.0	10.0	967	1076
Adrian	3.4	10.6	1065	1203
Alma	2.7	11.3	960	1124

Now, obviously, the standings won't end up exactly like this. Someone (Olivet) is going to win some games they're not supposed to win and we'll likely end up with more bunching towards the middle as teams get familiar with each other. But that's the way the computer sees the league shaping up before we play the games.

For Calvin in particular, they're going to have to make hay the first time through the league schedule as they have Hope, Trine, and Olivet at home and only Albion on the road of the other MIAA teams with a positive adjusted efficiency margin. They'll really need to be 5-2 (or preferably better) in those first seven games to feel really good about their chances to win the regular season conference title.

Looking ahead to the NCAA Tournament, the MIAA is most probably a one-bid league. It's not likely that the tournament runner up will have the resume required to receive an at-large bid. Most of the league is exiting non-conference play with a strong strength of schedule, but the league's overall non-conference record means those SOS numbers are going to decrease as we go.

I see Calvin, Hope, Albion, and Trine all staying a fair bit above the .500 strength-of-schedule Mendoza line that is the de facto requirement for NCAA Tournament selection, but not so far above that they'll be a strong contender unless they're also touting winning percentages in the .850 range (or so). That's... probably not going to happen. The best case for an at-large berth from the MIAA is for one of these teams to go 12-2 or 13-1 in conference play and then lose in the conference tournament final, and even that might not be enough to escape the bubble.

Turning our attention to opening night on Wednesday, it looks like we have a great slate of competitive games. Here's what my score predictor expects:

Away		Home		Home %	Away%	Pace	Line	Total
Olivet	86	Adrian	83	40%	60%	89	+3.0	169.5
Trine	66	Hope	68	60%	40%	69	-3.0	134.0
Kalamazoo	72	Alma	73	53%	47%	69	-1.0	145.0
Calvin	74	Albion	72	41%	59%	72	+2.5	146.0

All four games are 60%-40% or tighter and none of the expected score differentials are wider than one possession. The winners -- particularly of Trine-Hope and Calvin-Albion will have a leg up in the conference race. It should be a good night of basketball. 

Thoughts on the Upcoming MIAA-CCIW Challenge

I actually never know if this is officially referred to as a “classic” or a “challenge”. It has flipped-flopped over the years and has always depended on who’s schedule page you happened to be viewing at the moment. This season, in fact, none of the schools’ online schedule pages call it anything at all, except Wheaton, who simply calls it “CCIW Challenge”.

No one cares? No one cares. Moving on.

Why this is fun

The MIAA-CCIW Challenge isn’t fun in the same way the Big Ten-ACC Challenge* is fun – the latter being one of the best events in sports, in my opinion – but it still serves as a measuring stick (of sorts) that is so frequently missing from Calvin’s non-conference schedule. Sure the GRSHOF games on Thanksgiving weekend are always that, but it’s more difficult to compare to NAIA schools who start their schedule in late October and often have several more games under their belts.

*I’ve often wondered/fantasied about a true MIAA-CCIW challenge which would match up the eight CCIW schools with the eight MIAA schools in the same manner as the Big Ten and ACC do, but the fact of the matter is the MIAA would get destroyed. I think a Calvin or Hope could match up with a top-two CCIW school frequently enough to make that part fun, but the middle and bottom of the CCIW would feast on the middle and bottom of the MIAA. There’s just so much more conference depth over there. The hope most years would be for two or three MIAA wins.

But it’s fun because it’s back to back games against quality Division III programs who also share quite a bit in the way of institutional mindset. Carthage rarely forays into the top tier of the division, but they’ve been a Massey Top-1,000 team (all divisions, including NAIA, which generally equates to the top quarter or third of D3) in every year of his database (going back to 2003).

And it’s fun because of the back-to-back games which allow for direct comparison with a conference rival.

Why this is not fun

This is not fun because every year this weekend carries the weight of potential at-large tournament selection. “Signature wins” aren’t really a thing in the Division III selection process but “head-to-head”, “common opponents”, and “results versus regionally ranked opponents” are, and they often come into play when Wheaton and Carthage is concerned.

It’s also not fun because Calvin hasn’t had as much success the last few years as fans would like. Last year’s 27-point drubbing of Wheaton was a high point, but the loss the night before to Carthage was a result that shouldn’t have happened.

And the results have been especially poor on the other side of the lake. According to the Massey database, Calvin hasn’t beaten either Carthage or Wheaton on Lake Michigan’s western shore since the 2004-05 season when they beat Carthage in the Challenge and Wheaton in the NCAA Tournament (after losing to them in the challenge).

I don’t like to think about that.

About this year

Wheaton comes into play on Friday with a 4-2 record. The (2-point) loss to Defiance is a bit of a surprise, but the Yellow Jackets appear to be of reasonable quality themselves, and they owned the home court advantage for that game. The other loss was by four points at home to (now) #4 Washington U. That’s not a bad result at all.

On the positive side of the ledger they turned in an 11-point victory at #17 Chicago on Wednesday. Wheaton isn’t currently ranked in the current week’s Top-25 (they’re in the Others Receiving Votes category), but perhaps they would be if we were able to call for a re-rank after Wednesday.

Wheaton is a legitimate threat to go 2-0 this weekend. My personal KenPom-like efficiency ratings – which, to be clear, should be taken with a large small sample size caveat – call for likely scores of:

Wheaton 84, Calvin 79 (64% chance of a Wheaton victory)

Wheaton 88, Hope 74 (87% chance of a Wheaton victory)

The Massey Ratings call for a 73-69 win over Calvin and a 75-70 win over Hope (63% and 67% Wheaton win probabilities for those games respectively).

Carthage is having a rougher go this season; they’re 3-3 but have maybe only one positive result. They got hammered by 35 against Washington U. on a neutral site and suffered double-digit losses to St. Francis (NAIA) and UW-LaCrosse. Another negative result is also their one-point overtime win over UC-Santa Cruz (who won four games last season).

The solid-looking result is a 9-point win over a decent-to-good UW-Platteville squad.

My efficiency ratings call for scores of:

Hope 79, Carthage 78 (58% chance of a Hope win)

Calvin 83, Carthage 74 (83% chance of a Calvin win)

The Massey Ratings call for a 73-71 loss to Hope and a 72-69 loss to Calvin (44% and 39% Carthage win probabilities respectively.

Why I seemingly wrote that last section from the CCIW perspective

I have no clue.

What we want to see this weekend

Two wins, obviously.

More specifically: a win over Carthage almost feels like a must if there are any hopes of a Pool C (at large) bid for the tournament. A win over Wheaton isn’t as much of a must, but you’d at least like to see Calvin stay competitive. A double-digit loss would be disheartening.

2-0: Ecstatic

1-1: Probably expected, just hang with Wheaton

0-2: Soul is crushed

Calvin Flips the Bell Curve on Hope

Jordan Brink thanks the Hope Athletic Department for the free net.

I went to the Wednesday, February 5 Calvin-Hope game at the DeVos Fieldhouse with a couple of friends. The refrain from the two of them (and a few others in our section) throughout the game was “Hope’s just faster and better than Calvin is”. I kept trying to say “but they’re not this good”.

It turned out that Hope was that good – on that night – but I tried to assure these friends of mine that what we just witnessed was something like a 2nd percentile result*. They only could chuckle at me – apparently I’ve developed something of a reputation for being overly-statistical in my discussion of the sport – but I truly believed it.

*Upon further investigation it appears that the 18-point Hope win was more like a 4th percentile result.

Hope turned out to be much better than I thought they might be early in the year, but I refused to believe that they were really any better than Calvin. The preponderance of evidence* suggested, to me, that they were not better than even strength with the Knights.

*Calvin outscored the rest of the MIAA by an average of 19.5 points per game; Hope outscored them by 15.5 points per game. Calvin outscored the quartet of Aquinas, Cornerstone, Carthage, and Wheaton by a total of 22 points; Hope was a -1 against these four (HFA probably doesn’t quite make up the difference).

And then Saturday came.

I was fully expecting a close game – one that Hope might win by virtue of home court advantage – but I rarely expect either side to pull away in this rivalry.

And then it was 13-2.

Nate VanArendonk slammed home a basket and suddenly we were all watching some terrible rerun of How I Met Your Mother (except no one would actually watch that show on purpose). It was the same dang thing all over again.

Alex Eidson was floating and hanging and hitting everything, Grant Neil was D-ing up everybody, Cody Stuive was just knocking home three-balls, VanArendonk was getting free for easy buckets, and Calvin was shooting like 7% from the floor as a team.

But then our old friend Regression To The Mean showed up, and Calvin started getting buckets. And then our even better friend (in this particular case) Regression Way Past The Mean came and took his place and stayed for the rest of the game. Calvin continued to attack Hope and ended up out-scoring the Dutchmen 76-40 over the final 34+ minutes of the game.

How did they do it? I really don’t know.

A lot of good luck, that’s for sure, but the three-guard approach (Austin Parks started instead of Tyler Dykstra) also seemed to reverse some of the matchup problems Hope caused for Calvin in the earlier meetings. And Calvin’s defense rarely allowed Hope’s offense to settle into comfortable offensive sets.

Calvin made terrific adjustments, had an excellent game plan, and executed the snot out of their assignments. That, mixed with a good amount of random variation, led us to a 98th percentile result (these according to Massey). It was completely the other side of the Bell Curve from the earlier meeting at the DeVos Fieldhouse.

I think it was a testament to the fact that, despite what the doom-and-gloomers say, Coach Vande Streek and the Knights can make the proper adjustments, and, despite what the doom-and-gloomers say, the bad results in the first two meetings with Hope had a good amount of bad luck mixed in.

Onward and upward.

Jordan Brink and the newly minted MIAA MVP Tyler Kruis have showed that they can both score (1) efficiently and (2) in bulk. I’m a little bit nervous about what would happen if a tournament opponent really did shut these two down, but Calvin has enough offensive weapons that they might still be able to make it work out. I haven’t adjusted the numbers for strength-of-schedule, but this year’s Calvin offense ranks as the most efficient (116.8 points per 100 possessions) of the last 12 years (as far back as the detailed numbers go online).

The defense isn’t as stifling as it was last year, but they’re still good (and slightly better than the average Calvin defense of the last 12 years).

The Washington U.-Wilmington-Wittenberg-Calvin pod isn’t going to be easy for the Knights, but I can assure you that none of the other three teams are tickled with the prospect of an early-round matchup with Calvin.

All The Marbles

David Rietema has been really good and I haven't given him enough ink.

I'm sitting here eating my lunch and waiting for the selections/pairings to be announced and trying to figure out why I haven't written on here following the MIAA Championship. I guess I'm just too pumped up about it to sit down and put together any thoughts. I don't even remember details of the game except Calvin was trailing early, then took the lead, then took a big lead, then the buzzer. I guess that's good enough.

All the credit and a hearty "well done" go out to Coach Vande Streek, the seniors, and the whole team for what they've done this year -- right up to the latest performance. The regional rankings last Wednesday were pretty clear: win the MIAA automatic bid or you're probably not getting in the NCAA Tournament. So, with their backs against the wall, Calvin goes and beats Adrian by 27 and then Hope by 20. Yawn, end of story moving on.

Outside of a rough weekend in Wheaton ALL THE WAY BACK IN EARLY DECEMBER, they pretty much dominated their schedule. Sure, there was the close three point loss to Hope on the road, but that's not a big deal. They surely weren't playing their best that afternoon, but the result wasn't unexpected or out of the ordinary.

They've given us every reason to believe that they can compete on the national stage, and now they'll get their chance.

Efficiency Numbers for the MIAA Championship Game

Estimated number of possessions: 69
Offensive efficiency rating: 110.9
Defensive efficiency rating: 82.1

Hope isn't at maybe the traditional level that we've been accustomed to seeing the last seven years or so, but they're still pretty good. If the NCAA Tournament was the top 62 teams in terms of how good they really are, Hope would be in. And yet Calvin utterly dominated them here. That's not meant to be a knock on Hope, just a comment on how good Calvin actually is. The Knights proved without a doubt that they were the class of the MIAA this year.

Anyway, the selection show is about to start...

Totally Unaltered Photo: What We're Up Against

I was perusing some MIAA websites the other day when I came across this (totally unaltered) picture on Hope's basketball page.

This should serve as a reminder that they DO have banners hanging in the DeVos Fieldhouse but none of them really come from their men's basketball team actually, you know, winning.

How Much More Do You WANT?

Calvin 75, Hope 49 (box score)

The thing about “The Rivalry” is that games don’t go like this. Calvin and Hope are – with a few exceptions – both very good teams every single year. They know each other; they see each other in the GRSHOF Classic and MIAA-CCIW Classic; they rarely surprise each other.

But then this game happened and the Calvin Knights surprised the pants off the Flying Dutchmen who were apparently not prepared to play a basketball game. Calvin was a heavyweight boxer who nearly knocked out the opponent in the first round, sending them to the corner on wobbly legs. When the second round began, they (the metaphorical Calvin boxer) stood in the middle of the ring with gloves at the side, accepted a small flurry of uncontested body blows, laughed, and then delivered the right-hook that would end the fight.

Fun Fact: Hope finally tied Calvin’s halftime score with 1:43 left to play in the game.

And I guess that’s where the ill-conceived boxing metaphor fails. Calvin didn’t win this game so much with an offensive barrage – though they put up a quite good 113.0 offensive efficiency rating – it was more the fact that their defense suffocated the Dutchmen from the get-go. From a raw defensive efficiency standpoint, it was their third best game of the season:

Opponent	DEff
Grace Bible	72.6
Anderson	73.7
Hope	73.8
at Kalamazoo	76.4
North Park	76.6
Wabash	79.3
Adrian	82.5
Finlandia	84.0
Alma	85.2
Aquinas	88.5
Wheaton	89.6
Ripon	89.8
Cornerstone	90.2
Manchester	92.2
at Albion	99.1
Carthage	107.4

Note the surrounding teams being Grace, Anderson, Kalamazoo, and North Park. This was easily the best defensive game if we account for the relative quality of Hope’s offense. It didn’t look like it last night, but Hope’s one of the best offensive teams in Division III. According to the Massey Ratings’ breakdown, they’ve performed as the 29th best offense in the country. Calvin did that – 49 points in a game played at a reasonable pace – against what is possibly one of the Top-30 offenses in the entirety of NCAA Division III. I also want to note that Massey’s data set – the data set that rates Hope’s offense at #29 – already includes last night’s futility.

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In Which I Write a Guest Post at BallinMichigan

Patrick Hayes started a series over at BallinMichigan featuring the best high school and college basketball rivalries in the state of Michigan. Naturally he wanted a feature on Calvin-Hope, so he approached me to write one.

Check it out:

Clipped from: www.ballinmichigan.com (share this clip)

Calvin and Hope meet on the court in what has become not only one of the greatest basketball rivalries in the state, not just the best in Division III, but one of the greatest rivalries (of any sport at any level) in the country. That statement probably sounds a great deal like hyperbole (and it probably is to an extent, I’m in far too deep to know for sure), but there’s good reason that the Calvin-Hope rivalry has been branded as “THE” Rivalry.

From www.ballinmichigan.com

BallinMichigan is an incredibly good blog that sprang up this spring. There's already over 200 articles posted, and it's the type of stuff you won't find anywhere else. Patrick Hayes (who also has written for PistonPowered.com and writes a weekly Detroit Pistons spot at Freep.com) has dedicated the blog to high school, small college, and mid-major basketball in the state of Michigan (and the players that come out of such programs).

It's great to see blogs and websites springing up around the internet to give coverage to "small time" basketball. I'm obviously a big supporter of that.

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World Premier Video: Caleb Veldhouse's Three Pointer

I'm willing to bet that there are other copies of this clip floating out there somewhere, but I have unfortunately not  come across one on the internet, and that's too bad. It's a great memory.

I'm a little bit ashamed to admit that I've had a digital copy of this game saved on my computer for more than six years now (a friend of mine in the dorms was able to record this game onto his computer for me at the time). I should have cut this video and uploaded it to YouTube a long time ago. I apologize profusely for not doing so.

Just a terrific, terrific moment in Calvin hoops history. Hope came into the game, having already claimed an 18-point win over the Knights at the newly minted DeVos Fieldhouse, with a 20-1 record and a #4 d3hoops ranking. The Flying Dutchmen never trailed in this game until the waning moments when a freshman would make the biggest shot of his career.

The basket immediately propelled Caleb Veldhouse to legendary status. It was a status that, in some respects, he would never fully be able to live up to with his play on the court (though he was a very, very good player for four years, and that's understating it a bit), but he was that highly regarded by most of the Calvin faithful.

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The Long Offseason Begins

Hope 87, Calvin 80 (box score)

Seven point losses at the hands of the Hope Flying Dutchmen are usually cause for great consternation, but not in this case, at least, not for me. Sure, I was hoping for a win, but mostly I was looking for the team to put forth a good effort, and not give up.

Then halftime came. The Knights let some things get away from them in the closing moments of the first half and found themselves trailing at the break. I thought the scale had tipped. Not that the team was going to mail it in, but they probably knew what they were up against. It would have been easy to throw the team game out the window, to have five guys trying to play hero, or to check out out for the year 20 minutes early. Any of these scenarios (and probably dozens of others) would have lead to a 20+++ point loss.

The season didn't go the way anyone wanted it to. I'm sure the coaching staff wasn't happy with the record they were turning in, I don't think the players liked the results that they were churning out, and none of us "fan types" were used to a .500 season.

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MIAA Tournament Preview: Hope Flying Dutchmen

	Game Twenty Six (13-12, 8-6)
Who	#1 Hope Flying Dutchmen (24-1,14-0)
What	MIAA Tournament Semifinal
Where	DeVos Fieldhouse, Holland, MI
When	Wednesday, February 22 -- 7:30 PM
Audio	Stretch Internet
Video	None
Stats	Live Stats, MIAA Gameday

When We Last Met
Calvin lost 83-70 just eleven days ago at the Van Noord Arena. A thirteen point loss to the #1 team in the country isn't terrible, especially considering David Rietema (among others) was out for that game, but Hope had a double-digit lead pretty much the entire second half. Calvin really never was able to pull within "striking distance". Still, they didn't embarrass themselves. A better second half shooting performance (it was only 37%), and it could have been interesting. Story of the year, though.

Highlight of the game was definitely Bryan Powell's dunk over Logan Neil.


Bryan Powell Dunk vs. Hope from Calvin College on Vimeo.

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The MIAA is a One Bid League Unless…

Hope loses in the MIAA Tournament
This one is obvious. There’s always a chance, that the wheels completely fall off for the Flying Dutchmen and they lose a bunch of games, but the chances of that happening are pretty much zero. Even if Hope somehow drops two games in the regular season (say, at Adrian and at Calvin) AND loses in the MIAA tournament, they would still have a fair-to-good chance at receiving one of the precious 19 Pool C bids for the NCAA Tournament. They’re as close to a lock as you can get with still a month to play.

Knocking off Hope in the conference tournament would be the ‘easiest’ way for the MIAA to get two bids. Not that it’s easy to beat Hope in Holland, but Calvin, Albion, and Trine (and any other non-Adrian candidate for tournament spots) don’t really have any other option. Pool C is off the table for these teams.

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Hope Preview

	Game Sixteen (7-8, 2-2)
Who	#7 Hope Flying Dutchmen (14-1, 4-0)
Where	DeVos Fieldhouse, Holland, MI
When	Wednesday, January 18 -- 8:00 PM
TV	WGVU ( Over-the-air Channel 35 & 35.1, Comcast Channels 6 & 240)
Audio	Stretch Internet
Video	Stretch Internet (WGVU feed), MIAA Gameday
Stats	Live Stats, MIAA Gameday

**I have one general admission ticket available for tonight's game. Send me an email (use the email/letter icon on the sidebar) if you'd like to claim it.**

When We Last Met
Hope won last year’s MIAA Tournament Championship game in Holland by five points, but it wasn’t really a close game. The Dutchmen lead by twelve points for most of the second half, and although the Knights fought back to cut the lead to only three with thirty seconds left (courtesy of Hope only scoring four points between the 7:54 mark and the 0:30 mark), they never had the ball while trailing by only a single possession.

Tom Snikkers was Calvin’s best player that night; he scored 20 points on 16 shots, but the rest of the team shot putridly. The 3-19 that the Knights shot from three point range was the real killer. It was just one of those really bad nights.

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Top Ten Moments: 6. Hope's First Loss at DeVos, and Lightning Strikes Twice

Previously:
10. Andy Draayer En Fuego
9. Calvin Claims Final GRSHOF Tournament Championship
8. Calvin Wins "Home" Tournament Game in Aurora
7. Matt Veltema's Only Field Goal Was a Good One

6. Hope's First Loss at DeVos, and Lightning Strikes Twice (February 7, 2007 and February 24, 2007)
Hope College opened the DeVos Fieldhouse for the 2005-2006 season with a team that was on the verge of a dominating three-year run. They'd finish their next three seasons in the Sweet Sixteen, Elite Eight, and Final Four in successive order. It seemed at the time that the shiny new arena carried with it some magic, but, looking back, they just had some amazing talent on the floor.

Our story picks up in year two of that run. Calvin entered the February 7, 2007 matchup with a disappointing 12-8 record that included a 22 point loss to Hope in the championship game of the GRSHOF Tournament and a three point loss in the regularly scheduled home matchup with the Dutchmen. The Knights needed a spark to to turn their season around, but a road game against the #6 team in the country who was a perfect 28-0 in their new gym didn't look like a golden opportunity.

But instead of mailing it in, Calvin knocked Hope down early and withstood the inevitable barrage by the Dutchmen. Calvin outworked Hope 28-11 on the glass in the first half, and used a 7-15 performance from beyond the arc to take a 46-35 lead going into the half. Hope whittled the lead all the way down, and even took a two-point lead with 2:38 left in the game, but Calvin closed the contest out with a 12-4 run to stun the DeVos crowd. Chants of "First-loss-in-De-Vos" and a court storming ensued.

Earlier in the season, the Calvin women had been the first road team of any gender to win a game at DeVos Fieldhouse, and now the men did the same. I found it fitting that the Knights were the first to blemish both the men's and women's perfect home record.

But the season wasn't over. The Calvin faithful had learned that the Knights were capable of beating anyone, but their record wasn't going to be good enough to earn an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament, so they were faced with the prospect of needing to win a second game at Hope to win the auto-bid.

Calvin strolled back into Holland and again controlled the scoreboard for the majority of the game behind a strong shooting performance and a solid rebounding effort. But those pesky Dutchmen kept themselves in the game and, in true Rivalry fashion, the game was tied with the shot clock off near the end of the game. I'll let the video take over from here:



It's both incredibly easy and nearly impossible to describe moments like that with words. Unfortunately we haven't had many lately, but wins, close wins especially, in do-or-die situations are the greatest thing to experience as a fan. Nothing matches the adrenaline rush.

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The Replacements



Yes Woody, Seniors will have to be replaced.


Zac and I (and our wives, and my child) drove out to Minneapolis for Memorial weekend, so we had lots of time to discuss sports (mostly Tigers baseball and Calvin hoops). We left Friday after work (with an expected 3:00 AM (EST) arrival time, so we needed to keep conversation going to ensure the driver stayed alert.

Anyway, one of the topics that came up was the outlook for the 2012 MIAA season. Who will be the favorite? Who’s going to fill out the top four? We couldn’t really decide, so we played a rousing game of “better or worse”. Our reactions for each teams was as follows:

Adrian: lots of young players – “better”.
Albion: losing two starters – perhaps “marginally worse”.
Alma: can’t get much worse – “even”.
Calvin: losing good players, but there’s a core of young talent – a biased “marginally better”.
Hope: losing Bowser, Dickerson, and Tanis – “worse”.
Kalamazoo: losing Ryan Clark – “worse”
Olivet: losing “everyone” – “much worse”
Trine: lots of young players – “better”

I’m not saying that this is accurate, but that’s what the gut told us without looking at rosters or playing time or scoring averages. We eventually figured the standings would look something like this:

1 – Calvin – The slight favorite, but not a lock.
2 – Hope – still a very good team. Could win the league or end up third.
3 – Adrian – Will be top three. Could challenge the top two, but they were “only” 7-7 last year.
4 – Albion – Because they’re always in the top four.
5 – Trine – They have enough young players to make a jump in the standings.
6 – Kalamazoo – Hard to replace Ryan Clark, but they won’t be at the bottom.
7 – Olivet – It’s going to be a long year. Losing a ton of talent.
8 – Alma – Still bad.

But I wanted to get a real look at who’s staying, and who’s leaving to get a better of idea of how difficult it will actually be for each team to find replacements. So I crunched some numbers.

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MIAA Final Four Preview

MIAA	Final Four
Where	Holland, MI
When	Friday and Saturday
Video	None
Audio	Calvin, Hope
LiveStats	Stats
Directions	Google Maps

The MIAA's final weekend is here! At least one team will advance to the NCAA tournament, and at least two teams will see their season end in Holland.

The good news for Calvin fans is that the Knights get to play the only team of the four that they swept during the regular season. That's not to say that getting to Saturday night will be a cakewalk, Albion was third for a reason, but it does comfort me.

I'm not expecting that I'll have time to 'preview' the championship game (let's operate under the assumption that Calvin beats Albion for the moment), so consider this your preview post for the whole weekend. You can think of it like a bonus post if you wish, but don't worry, you don't have to pay me any extra.

Let's jump to the graph! (click on it for a larger version)

Note that the graph title is a play on words. I'm hilarious.

In case we have newbies on the blog (or oldbies that want more explanation), here's a rundown of what these stats mean.

These are what are referred to as the four factors. They are supposedly the four stats that are most indicative of winning and losing. They are (in priority order) effective field goal percentage (eFG%), turnover rate (TOr), rebounding percentage (Rb%), and free throw rate (FTr). The first four sets of bars are for each team's offense and the second four are from the perspective of the defenses.

Effective field goal percentage is just like field goal percentage, but it adjusts numbers to account for the additional point of a made three pointer. Because when it comes to scoring points, 2-6 from three point range is worth the same as 3-6 from two. Average offenses are in the 0.490-0.500 eFG% range.

Turnover rate is the percentage of team possessions that end in a turnover. This one's pretty simple and obvious. Good offenses turn the ball over infrequently (you want to be less than 20%), and good defenses force extra turnovers (you'd like to force more than 20%).

Rebounding percentage is also easy to grasp. It's the percentage of available rebounds that a team collects on each end of the court. Average teams get about 68% of the rebounds on defense and 32% on offense.

Lastly, we have free throw rate. Getting to the free throw line can be an underrated skill. As long as you're shooing better than 60% from the stripe, you're helping your team's offensive efficiency rating. Free throw rate just tells us how many free throws a team shoots for every field goal attempt. Extra shots usually mean extra points. Average is about 0.36. A good offense supplements their point total with trips to the line, but a solid defense can lock you down without fouling.

From the graph, it looks like Calvin has two distinct advantages over the other three teams. They rebound the ball extremely well on the offensive end, and they don't send opponents to the free throw line very often.

Comparatively, Calvin's biggest weakness with respect to Albion, Hope, and Adrian is that they don't force many turnovers on defense. They do, however, look very good in the other three defensive categories.

Probable Starters
Here's a brief glance at the stats of the expected starters for the four teams.

Calvin	%Shots	PPWS	eFG%	TO%	Rb%	FTr	Ar	Blk%
Rodts	0.21	1.23	0.584	0.14	0.10	0.30	0.10	0.02
Snikkers	0.31	1.11	0.503	0.21	0.14	0.45	0.22	0.02
Schuster	0.21	1.13	0.543	0.07	0.12	0.19	0.07	0.16
Powell	0.25	0.86	0.414	0.16	0.05	0.12	0.24	0.01
Salo	0.12	1.23	0.585	0.17	0.07	0.23	0.13	0.00
Calvin	-	1.10	0.507	0.21	0.55	0.35	0.52	0.24

Albion	%Shots	PPWS	eFG%	TO%	Rb%	FTr	Ar	Blk%
Cruse	0.28	1.02	0.469	0.17	0.12	0.74	0.18	0.08
Kazen	0.21	1.08	0.495	0.23	0.12	0.45	0.12	0.00
Siebert	0.23	1.01	0.468	0.10	0.11	0.26	0.07	0.01
Hutton	0.32	1.12	0.504	0.14	0.06	0.34	0.15	0.00
Wash	0.15	1.08	0.505	0.28	0.05	0.21	0.18	0.00
Albion	-	1.04	0.471	0.21	0.53	0.45	0.48	0.10

Hope	%Shots	PPWS	eFG%	TO%	Rb%	FTr	Ar	Blk%
Bowser	0.29	1.18	0.561	0.12	0.09	0.35	0.10	0.03
Krombeen	0.22	1.11	0.520	0.17	0.10	0.27	0.30	0.03
Tanis	0.21	1.02	0.459	0.10	0.04	0.32	0.09	0.01
Snuggerud	0.24	1.16	0.543	0.14	0.15	0.29	0.11	0.11
Dickerson	0.16	1.19	0.602	0.21	0.13	0.21	0.06	0.07
Hope	-	1.14	0.535	0.18	0.52	0.36	0.55	0.19

Adrian	%Shots	PPWS	eFG%	TO%	Rb%	FTr	Ar	Blk%
Collins	0.14	0.88	0.391	0.26	0.06	0.41	0.37	0.00
Gallant	0.20	1.06	0.510	0.18	0.13	0.31	0.13	0.08
Reed	0.24	1.03	0.456	0.10	0.05	0.29	0.10	0.00
Mason	0.18	0.96	0.484	0.20	0.14	0.31	0.03	0.14
Mosley	0.30	1.11	0.479	0.14	0.12	0.53	0.12	0.04
Adrian	-	1.00	0.465	0.22	0.52	0.33	0.57	0.27

The team stats at the bottom of each chart are for the team as a whole, not just the starters. Some of these stats are the same as above, but here's a quick explanation of the new ones. Bold numbers represent the high number in each category out of the starters (just thought it would be fun).

%Shots - The percentage of the team's shots a player takes while he's on the floor.
PPWS - Points per weighted shot. How many points a player records per attempt to score.
Ar - Assist rate. The percentage of made field goals that a player assists on while he's in the game.
Blk% - The percentage of opponents' two-point shot attempts that a player blocks while he's in the game.

I'm really geeked for these games. I think we'll have two quality semifinal contests on our hands. I was fairly nervous before Wednesday's game, but now I'm just feeling excited. Not getting to the weekend would have been disappointing, but we're here now. There's an opportunity to get this thing done.

Sure To Be Wrong Prediction
Calvin over Albion by 5
Hope over Adrian by 7

Up Next:
The NCAA Tournament. If ya win.

I've been missing the tournament the last couple of years. Best road trips ever. It's what got me hooked in the first place. Just win.

I'm going to request some tentative vacation from work for next Friday just in case. Just in case.

Plus/Minus Versus Hope

Game Chart

Player	(+)	(-)	(+/-)	MIN	(+)/min	(-)/min	(+/-)/min
Brink	13	21	-8	12	1.08	1.75	-0.67
DeBoer	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
DeYoung	7	12	-5	6	1.17	2.00	-0.83
Fabiyi	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Greene	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Haverdink	12	15	-3	7	1.71	2.14	-0.43
Kruis	26	29	-3	14	1.86	2.07	-0.21
Powell	42	44	-2	24	1.75	1.83	-0.08
Rietema	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Rodts	51	49	2	27	1.89	1.81	0.07
Salo	57	57	0	30	1.90	1.90	0.00
Schnyders	21	33	-12	14	1.50	2.36	-0.86
Schuster	62	62	0	34	1.82	1.82	0.00
Snikkers	59	58	1	32	1.84	1.81	0.03
Vallie	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Team	350	380	-30	200	1.75	1.90	-0.15

I mentioned to Zac after the game that I thought the starters would still rate overall in the 'positive' for the game. It turns out that I was sorta right.

The five starters combined for a whopping +1 on the game (which is really 0.2 scoreboard points; only Bryan Powell came out in the red on the day (he was -2). Salo and Schuster came out dead even, Snikkers was a +1, and Rodts was a +2.

The bench, on the other hand, combined for a -31 (that's -6.2 in scoreboard points).

Season Chart

Player	(+)	(-)	(+/-)	MIN	(+)/min	(-)/min	(+/-)/min
Rodts	866	769	97	449	1.93	1.71	0.22
Snikkers	817	726	91	427	1.91	1.70	0.21
Schuster	774	660	114	396	1.95	1.67	0.29
Powell	726	611	115	384	1.89	1.59	0.30
Brink	652	558	94	333	1.96	1.68	0.28
Schnyders	511	487	24	280	1.83	1.74	0.09
Haverdink	422	437	-15	236	1.79	1.85	-0.06
Kruis	324	322	2	206	1.57	1.56	0.01
DeYoung	280	276	4	158	1.77	1.75	0.03
Salo	270	251	19	156	1.73	1.61	0.12
DeBoer	273	246	27	139	1.96	1.77	0.19
Vallie	30	35	-5	20	1.50	1.75	-0.25
Fabiyi	15	12	3	9	1.67	1.33	0.33
Rietema	15	15	0	9	1.67	1.67	0.00
Greene	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Team	5975	5405	570	3202	1.87	1.69	0.18