Coming into the season, Trine was the heavy favorite after returning nearly everyone from the team that went 17-1 (5-0 MIAA) and won the conference tournament in the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season. That expectation has perhaps shifted after a non-conference season that saw Trine lose four games (and record a few uncomfortable wins against inferior competition).
Calvin has seemingly supplanted the Thunder as the league favorite as league play begins on Wednesday. Here's a look at where each team stands in the efficiency ratings I run for all of Division III men's basketball:
| D3 Rank | Team | AdjEM | AdjO | AdjD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Calvin | 22.4 | 113.8 | 91.5 |
| 72 | Albion | 13.8 | 104.7 | 90.9 |
| 70 | Trine | 14.0 | 101.4 | 87.5 |
| 77 | Hope | 12.6 | 108.5 | 95.9 |
| 167 | Olivet | 3.0 | 96.8 | 93.8 |
| 258 | Kalamazoo | -3.7 | 101.3 | 105.0 |
| 267 | Adrian | -4.5 | 97.2 | 101.7 |
| 297 | Alma | -8.1 | 96.6 | 104.6 |
A quick explainer for those who haven't followed my ratings: Adjusted efficiency margin is the difference between a team's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings (the 'adjusted' means the calculations are iterated to account for quality of opponent). This is the number of points they'd be expected to outscore an average D3 team in 100 possessions. The offensive rating (AdjO) is how many points they'd be expected to score (per 100 possessions) and the defensive rating (AdjD) is how many points they'd be expected to give up (per 100 possessions).
So based on results* to date, we have something like four tiers of teams forming in the MIAA. Calvin is alone in tier 1 as a (fringe) Top-25 caliber team, Albion, Trine, and Hope are bunched up very tightly in tier 2, Olivet is in their own tier a bit above D3 average, and Kalamazoo, Adrian, and Alma are in the fourth tier a bit below average.
*I only calculate data from D3 vs. D3 games so nothing against D1, D1, or NAIA is included here.
The cool thing about these efficiency ratings is that we can use them to predict scores for individual matchups. If we add in a few points for home court advantage, we can predict the outcome of any game. So, for example, my computer favors Calvin over Albion in Wednesday's conference opener 74-72 and gives Calvin a 59% chance of winning the game. If I run these percentages for all 56 conference games, I get the following expected standings:
| Team | Expected Wins | Expected Losses | Expected PF | Expected PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin | 11.8 | 2.2 | 1148 | 957 |
| Albion | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1061 | 969 |
| Trine | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1000 | 910 |
| Hope | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1078 | 1001 |
| Olivet | 6.0 | 8.0 | 1060 | 1098 |
| Kalamazoo | 4.0 | 10.0 | 967 | 1076 |
| Adrian | 3.4 | 10.6 | 1065 | 1203 |
| Alma | 2.7 | 11.3 | 960 | 1124 |
Now, obviously, the standings won't end up exactly like this. Someone (Olivet) is going to win some games they're not supposed to win and we'll likely end up with more bunching towards the middle as teams get familiar with each other. But that's the way the computer sees the league shaping up before we play the games.
For Calvin in particular, they're going to have to make hay the first time through the league schedule as they have Hope, Trine, and Olivet at home and only Albion on the road of the other MIAA teams with a positive adjusted efficiency margin. They'll really need to be 5-2 (or preferably better) in those first seven games to feel really good about their chances to win the regular season conference title.
Looking ahead to the NCAA Tournament, the MIAA is most probably a one-bid league. It's not likely that the tournament runner up will have the resume required to receive an at-large bid. Most of the league is exiting non-conference play with a strong strength of schedule, but the league's overall non-conference record means those SOS numbers are going to decrease as we go.
I see Calvin, Hope, Albion, and Trine all staying a fair bit above the .500 strength-of-schedule Mendoza line that is the de facto requirement for NCAA Tournament selection, but not so far above that they'll be a strong contender unless they're also touting winning percentages in the .850 range (or so). That's... probably not going to happen. The best case for an at-large berth from the MIAA is for one of these teams to go 12-2 or 13-1 in conference play and then lose in the conference tournament final, and even that might not be enough to escape the bubble.
Turning our attention to opening night on Wednesday, it looks like we have a great slate of competitive games. Here's what my score predictor expects:
All four games are 60%-40% or tighter and none of the expected score differentials are wider than one possession. The winners -- particularly of Trine-Hope and Calvin-Albion will have a leg up in the conference race. It should be a good night of basketball.
