The Boss Back

"Somebody call the Brink(s) truck"
          -Rick Ross

I'm unsure whether it was (occasional FFTMAG author) Zac or me that quoted the above rap lyric after Jordan Brink hit his fifth three pointer of the ballgame on Saturday night, but it seemed apropos at the time. I might have even embeded video of the song -- had a family-friendly version existed -- and gone on to laud the incredible game that Mr. Brink had in Calvin's not-as-close-as-the-final-score-indicates 67-58 win over UW-Stevens Point.

But I'm not going to go on-and-on about how clutch Jordan was in scoring 21 points and hitting on all five of his three point attempts because that's not what this team is about. It's not about individual scoring efforts or any particular player carrying the team.

On Saturday it was Brink with the game-high 21 points, but last week against Rose-Hulman it was Tom Snikkers with 20. Against Hope in the MIAA Championship, Bryan Powell led the way with 18 and Tyler Kruis had a game-high 15 against Adrian.

So, in the last four games -- all with Calvin having their backs against the proverbial wall -- a different member of the team has come out on top in scoring. And it's been like that all year. If one guy has a good matchup, they all look to feed him. This team doesn't play selfishly, they're not out there looking to pad a stat line, and they quite clearly share a common goal.

In both rounds of NCAA Tournament play, the opposing team's broadcasters have commented on how impressed they were with Calvin's balanced box scores. The Knights have four guys averaging between 10.5 and 13.5 points, but rarely, it seems, do games play out that way. The four top scorers don't necessarily hit double figures each game, content to play a role when it's not working for them, but they're each capable of making plays and taking over a game if it fits inside the team flow.

And it's not even about the top scorers. Calvin is where they are for multiple reasons. They're one of the (if not the, singular) best rebounding teams in the country, and guys like Mickey DeVries and Dan Stout play big roles in that department. Stevens Point didn't get their first "real" offensive rebound until there were about five minutes left to play (the first credited offensive rebound came at about 10 minutes in the second half on a Tyler Dykstra block that ended up out of bounds). When teams don't get second chances, they don't score very much.

It's a team game and Calvin's playing it that way. I should be writing about every single guy wearing the maroon and gold, but I can't because my mind is really just "WE ON! WE ON! WE ON! WE ON!" right now. I'm just, wow, I love this.

Efficiency Numbers

Estimated possessions: 59.4
Offensive Efficiency: 112.8
Defensive Efficiency: 97.7

That's actually Calvin getting things done more on the offensive side than on the defensive side -- which is a little bit unusual -- but UW-Stevens Point is as good of an offensive team as they've seen all season, so that defensive number is still pretty darn good.

The Knights were up 14 with darn near 0:30 to play, but a late three pointer and a layup cut the game to single digits by the final buzzer. They have more or less clowned two opponents on their home court in the NCAA Tournament.

Calvin's last three games -- vs. Hope, at Rose-Hulman, at UW-Stevens Point -- have probably been their best three games of the year. This is the right time of year to peak.

In which the author quotes himself

This came all the way back on October 25:

19 to 21 wins heading into the MIAA tournament with a 12-2 or 11-3 conference record and a league championship. They’ll grab an NCAA tournament berth and make a Sweet 16 appearance.

It was 22 wins heading into the MIAA Tournament with a 13-1 conference record, a league championship, an NCAA Tournament berth, and a Sweet Sixteen appearance. I was way off.

Looking ahead

St. Thomas is up next. They're good, and that's an understatement. Perhaps I'll have numbers and other nerdy things to come.

All The Marbles

David Rietema has been really good and I haven't given him enough ink.

I'm sitting here eating my lunch and waiting for the selections/pairings to be announced and trying to figure out why I haven't written on here following the MIAA Championship. I guess I'm just too pumped up about it to sit down and put together any thoughts. I don't even remember details of the game except Calvin was trailing early, then took the lead, then took a big lead, then the buzzer. I guess that's good enough.

All the credit and a hearty "well done" go out to Coach Vande Streek, the seniors, and the whole team for what they've done this year -- right up to the latest performance. The regional rankings last Wednesday were pretty clear: win the MIAA automatic bid or you're probably not getting in the NCAA Tournament. So, with their backs against the wall, Calvin goes and beats Adrian by 27 and then Hope by 20. Yawn, end of story moving on.

Outside of a rough weekend in Wheaton ALL THE WAY BACK IN EARLY DECEMBER, they pretty much dominated their schedule. Sure, there was the close three point loss to Hope on the road, but that's not a big deal. They surely weren't playing their best that afternoon, but the result wasn't unexpected or out of the ordinary.

They've given us every reason to believe that they can compete on the national stage, and now they'll get their chance.

Efficiency Numbers for the MIAA Championship Game

Estimated number of possessions: 69
Offensive efficiency rating: 110.9
Defensive efficiency rating: 82.1

Hope isn't at maybe the traditional level that we've been accustomed to seeing the last seven years or so, but they're still pretty good. If the NCAA Tournament was the top 62 teams in terms of how good they really are, Hope would be in. And yet Calvin utterly dominated them here. That's not meant to be a knock on Hope, just a comment on how good Calvin actually is. The Knights proved without a doubt that they were the class of the MIAA this year.

Anyway, the selection show is about to start...

Do. Or Do Not. There Is No Try.

This is basically Calvin's entire team resting because they thought there was a game but there wasn't.

We're all going to watch on Matchup Monday but, should Calvin fail to win the MIAA's automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament, they're not going to hear their name called. I mean, we're going to want it, and hope for it, and strain to hear it, but once we've exhausted all 19 fingers and toes (that's normal, right?)  ticking off Pool C candidates we're going to come to terms with the hard truth.

Calvin is locked into an in-region winning percentage greater than .900, but they're not going to get an at-large big. We've seen the regional rankings and we know this is the case -- we don't believe it -- but we know it.

So heading into this MIAA Tournament Calvin needed to heed the advice of Master Yoda. You either DO win the AQ or you DO NOT. There's really no room for TRY.

I was nervous as heck heading into Thursday's semifinal with Adrian. They've given Calvin everything they had (and more) over the last three years and it's never been easy. It's true that they're a shell of the team that came into MIAA play undefeated and ranked #7 in the nation, but that defense has been there all season, and it's that defense that's given Calvin fits.

But the Knights didn't mess around with an overmatched Bulldog team. They pretty much took it right to them on both ends of the floor and, though they didn't put the game away in the first half, quickly stretch the lead to a comfortable number.

Adrian never really made a run at Calvin in the second half and it was clear with 10 minutes to play that Calvin was going to coast to a relatively easy victory. They were efficient, tough on defense, took care of the ball, rebounded well, didn't foul, and shared the ball. It was, quite frankly, a better played game than we could have asked for.

But that's not enough. It doesn't really matter that Calvin won by 27 and not three the result is the same. It only counts for one win which is one short of two, and two's the number of wins they need in this conference tournament in order to make the big dance. There's no time to rest or get cocky because it's still win-or-go-home and you-know-who is coming to town on Saturday.

Efficiency Numbers

They were good.

Estimated possessions: 58
Offensive Efficiency: 121.9 (points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 75.5 (points per 100 possessions)

100 is roughly average on the efficiency scale, and Calvin has performed around 110 on the offensive end and 85 on the defensive end for the season. Needless to say beating those numbers by 10 on each end is a very good thing.

Trine Not To Think Too Far Ahead

Calvin 56, Trine 43 (box score)

This was really the first game Calvin had won this year purely with defense. You could also throw in the Adrian game perhaps, and maybe Aquinas and Cornerstone, but none of those three games were as extreme as this one.

Calvin couldn’t score, plain and simple, but the defense allowed them to hang in there and make a game of it until the baskets started falling. Remember this?

There are good days and bad days. There are games where shots don’t fall. There are games where the ball seems to take weird bounces. This happens – and will happen again at some point down the stretch – but this isn’t what WANT is about. It’s a decision – a repeated decision that’s made every moment – to stay calm, stay focused, stay controlled, stay team-oriented, and stay dominant.

I had very literally written that two days before this game, and that’s pretty much what happened. Calvin didn’t score a point for nearly seven minutes (a Dan Stout free throw), and didn’t make a field goal for the first ten minutes -- nine minutes and fifty nine seconds, actually, if you want to be literal about it. But even then, one-quarter of the way through the game, with one field goal in and three points on the board, the Knights found themselves down only six points.

Trine jumped out to the quick 9-0 lead inside the first five or six minutes, but the Calvin defense clamped down then and there, and only allowed 34 more points the rest of the game. It was the best defensive output of the season, holding Trine to a 68.1 efficiency rating – the first time they’d held an opponent under 70 all year.

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Champs.

I'm hoping these students (not pictured) were at the volleyball match.

Calvin 84, Grace Bible 53 (box score)

Calvin 83, North Park 54 (box score)

Not the sports apparel retailer, that’s Champs Sports, and not the sports bar and grill chain, that’s Champps Americana Restaurant (notice the extra ‘P’, someone over there is too clever); I’m talking about the Calvin Tip-off Tournament Champs.

It’s kind of a big deal. People know it.

I find it hard to write words after horrible, horrible losses and blowout victories, but at least I can justify typing random words after the latter (I think that means the second one), because no one’s reading this anyway. They’re all out celebrating the championship. Still.

The results of the two games this past weekend were nice – it’s rarely a bad thing to win by 30 – and we don’t know how the respective seasons for Grace and North Park will shake out, but winning both of these games by 30 (or 31 and 29, if you’re a stickler for details) should put Calvin right where they want to be. In order to be a good team one must beat these two soundly, and Calvin did just that.

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The Creatively Named Calvin-Ferris Recap

The inflatable bulldog thing is very intimidating.

Ferris State 63, Calvin 62 (box score)

This is going to be a decidedly more fun (funner?) recap to write than I thought it would be at halftime. When the teams were going through the layup lines prior to the second half, I declared: “Calvin’s going to make a run, and it will begin right now.” I actually did declare that, with the score 43-23 in favor of the Bulldogs, but I didn’t declare it because I believed it, I was intentionally lying to myself. I needed something that would get me through the remainder of the game and to my post-game Taco Bell. My thinking was that if Calvin could get the deficit down to single digits by the end of the game, then there would be enough positives to take away to keep myself from jumping off the proverbial bridge.

 But Calvin didn’t just whittle it down to single digits, the whittled it down to a single point – and had a couple of chances to win it at the end. At that point basket in or basket out didn’t really matter to me. The win/loss wasn’t all that importing seeing as this was an exhibition game, but what was important was the fact that the Knights ended up going toe-to-toe with an average-or-better Division II team for 40 minutes.

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The Long Offseason Begins

Hope 87, Calvin 80 (box score)

Seven point losses at the hands of the Hope Flying Dutchmen are usually cause for great consternation, but not in this case, at least, not for me. Sure, I was hoping for a win, but mostly I was looking for the team to put forth a good effort, and not give up.

Then halftime came. The Knights let some things get away from them in the closing moments of the first half and found themselves trailing at the break. I thought the scale had tipped. Not that the team was going to mail it in, but they probably knew what they were up against. It would have been easy to throw the team game out the window, to have five guys trying to play hero, or to check out out for the year 20 minutes early. Any of these scenarios (and probably dozens of others) would have lead to a 20+++ point loss.

The season didn't go the way anyone wanted it to. I'm sure the coaching staff wasn't happy with the record they were turning in, I don't think the players liked the results that they were churning out, and none of us "fan types" were used to a .500 season.

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Getting a Lift From Some Fresh Men

Calvin 77, Kalamazoo 65 (box score)

A really nice win for the Knights. Not so much that they won (it was 'just' Kalamazoo), but they never really allowed the Hornets to get within striking distance during the home stretch. It seemed like the final ten minutes was played almost exclusively with a double-digit Calvin lead. It wasn't a twenty-something point blowout like the home meeting with Kalamazoo was, but it was still comfortable nonetheless.

Game Bullets

• The Massey Ratings called for a four point Calvin victory, so the twelve point win was a decent 'over-performance'. It's not that I'm looking to next year already, but I really like the experience that some of the younger players are getting. It should pay dividends next season and beyond.
•  There was at least one time during the game where every Knight player on the court was either a freshman or a first year varsity player. It was both scary and exciting. These five players: Van Eck, Mast, Dykstra, Nadeau, and Huizenga combined for 71 minutes and 21 points.
• Tyler Kruis played like a man among boys on the offensive end. He didn't back down one bit against the Hornet big men -- even likely first team MIAA center Joe Prepolec -- choosing instead to power right through them. The result was 16 points and a perfect field goal percentage.
• If I had to pick a league MVP today, I'd give the nod to Nate Snuggerud of Hope, but Tom Snikkers has turned up his level of play big time. He's fifth in the league in scoring at 16.3 ppg, second in rebounding with 7.6 per game, and sixth in assists with 3.1 per game. If he keeps his scoring efficiency turned up for the last four games of the season, then he could end up on the short list of viable candidates.
• I bet Matt DeBoer's knee is barking today. He went down in a heap holding a knee late in the first half and had to be helped off the floor by a trainer. I had no doubt in my mind that his season was over, but he came back out after halftime to finish the game. Another serious injury was the last thing Calvin needed.
• Even though Adrian lost to Trine on Saturday -- leaving us with a three way tie for second -- Calvin's chances for the #2 seed in the MIAA tournament are quite low. The two losses to Adrian effectively keep the Bulldogs a game ahead of the Knights in the standings. The most likely tournament scenario still looks like Calvin at Adrian in the semifinals.

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Stats-and-More Versus Olivet

Win Expectancy

Calvin’s win expectancy jumped from 50% (where all games start) to 71% just ten seconds into the game as Calvin took a 2-0 lead on a Tom Snikkers field goal. It wouldn’t dip below 70% for the rest of the game.

This was a textbook wire-to-wire beat down, with the win effectively secured with five minutes still to play in the first half. There was really no point in this game in which Olivet made an actual run at competitiveness. Their best stretch of multi-possession sustained play might have been keeping the Calvin lead right around seven from the 13:09 mark to the 9:44 mark in the first half.

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And Boom Goes the Dynamite

Calvin 93, Olivet 65 (box score)

The storyline for this game was that Olivet was indeed quite bad. I would have loved to see Calvin's defense lock down Olivet in the second half instead of allowing 38 points, but Coach Vande Streek was clearly spreading the minutes around, so it's definitely understandable.

It was a wonderful opportunity for Daniel Stout (16 minutes) and Tyler Dykstra (17 minutes) to get some extended playing time. I particularly enjoyed seeing Dykstra, Stout, and Tyler Kruis all on the court at the same time. That's a combination that could cause some havoc in this league for a good couple of years. We also saw some nice things out of Nate Van Eck, who chipped in eight points in a rare display of scoring touch.

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While I Was Out

So it was a little bit of a busy week at work and at home, and, consequently, I neglected this blog. But let's take a few moments to catch up on the happenings with the Calvin Knights.

There was a 16 point loss to Hope.

Unfortunately, this was entirely expected. I went into the day calm and cool (usually my stomach does gymnastics the entire day leading up to a Rivalry game), but I was a wreck at halftime. Never in my wildest dreams did I allow myself to hope for the type of shooting performance that Calvin displayed in the first half. I knew they would have to play a perfect 40 minutes to pull out a win, and here they were with (pretty much) a perfect 20 under their belts.

So I allowed myself that a floundering, depleted Calvin team could upset a top-ten team on the road. Obviously things didn't work out that way. The "hot" shooting disappeared and the lead evaporated about six minutes into the second half. Looking at that game as a whole, the Knights performed as well (or even slightly better) than was expected of them. It wasn't so much a second half collapse as it was a first half overperform followed by a return to normalcy.

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Stats-and-More Versus Alma

Win Probability

Alma took a 9-3 lead about four minutes into the game, but it was a steady climb from there on to the win. Despite the student webcast announcers calling the game a ‘nail biter’, nothing really exciting happened in the final twelve or thirteen minutes.

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Better Than the Really Bad Teams

Calvin 85, Alma 77 (box score)

After Calvin’s 64-59 loss to Albion a week ago, I was thinking that even making the four-team MIAA Tournament might be more than a bit of a stretch. I’m more optimistic at the moment. Not that either Kalamazoo or Alma are any good, but beating the bad teams – and not really struggling with either one – is still a good sign. I would have loved to see Calvin keep the double-digit final margin on Saturday, but I’ll take the eight point win on the road, especially since the final twelve minutes or so were spent with Calvin up by 11 (or so). Making the MIAA Tournament will still be a chore for the Knights, but they’re “in the hunt” along with Trine and Albion (I’m assuming Hope and Adrian are shoe-ins). I still think Albion is the weakest of the three, but they have a leg up on Calvin with the early head-to-head win; the rematch at (historic) Kresge Gymnasium looks like a must win for the Knights.

But anyway, this is supposed to be about the Alma game. The Scots had been a team that shot the ball really well from the floor, but due to turnovers, iffy free throw shooting, and poor rebounding, they really didn’t score all that many points. The Scots hit a fair number of their free throws on Saturday, but Calvin controlled the glass and forced a lot of tough shots, and so Alma only managed an effective field goal percentage of .460 (which looks good to us, but is 80 points below their season average) and an offensive efficiency rating of 94.6.

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Stats-and-More versus Kalamazoo

Win Probability

I’ve highlighted a few of the ‘bigger’ plays of the game. For Kalamazoo it was Adam Peter’s two point shot in the first half that gave the Hornets a six point lead – it would be their biggest lead of the evening – the win probably graph gave Calvin only a 30% chance of coming back to win at this point.

Calvin’s top play of the night was a three point play by Tom Snikkers just one minute into the second half. David Rietema came up with a steal and found Snikkers streaking toward the hoop. Snikkers received the pass, drew contact, and laid the ball up and in. He hit the free throw to give the Knights a three point lead – a lead they would not relinquish. This play netted Calvin 30% in the win probability column, from about 50% up to about 80%.

The final play I called out was a jump shot by Bryan Powell that gave the Knights a nine point lead with under ten minutes to play. The result of the play added about 14% to Calvin’s win probability total, bumping their percentage up to 96%.

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Joe Prepolec Wears Tights

Just saying

Calvin 68, Kalamazoo 47 (box score)

Can't describe how much of a relief it was to see Calvin pull away and win this game by a comfortable margin. It surely wasn't pretty, but the Knights clamped down on defense -- and provided enough offense -- to coast to a respectable 21 point victory. Kalamazoo is far from good, but Calvin needed to show that they're better than the 'bottom half', and I think they ended up doing that tonight.

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Stats-and-More Versus Adrian

Win Probability

Adrian jumped out to a 3-0 lead, and it was Calvin playing catch up pretty much the rest of the way. Despite taking a brief one-point lead, and cutting the Adrian margin to one possession on a couple of occasions, they were never able to get their win probability above 45%.

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Not enough

Adrian 68, Calvin 61 (box score)

Calvin’s losing the battle of attrition hard right now. First it was Jordan Brink with a shoulder injury in October. Then it was Mitch Vallie’s busted arm last week. Now, as indicated on last night’s radio broadcast, it appears that Mickey DeVries will have to spend some time away from the team as he gets his academics in order.

But what that doesn’t excuse is the plethora of 38%-ish shooting nights that we’ve seen from this team. Last night in Adrian, Calvin took 29 shots that were classified as two-point “jumpers” in the box score*. Of those 29 shots, only 10 were made (.345). Add that to the horrid 3-17 (.176) night they had from the three point line and it’s easy to see why Calvin lost the game, even with Adrian shooting only 39.6% themselves. On two and three point jump shots last night, the Knights effectively shot just 31.5%.

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Everybody Hates Losing

Whitman 84, Calvin 67 (box score)

Fill-in radio man Brad Draayer asked coach Vande Streek what I thought was a very good question after Friday night’s discouraging loss to Whitman.

Was this trip worth it?

The response by KVS contained more than a little bit of coachspeak, but I thought it was a very good response.

(Paraphrasing)

No one likes losing. The players hate losing, the coaches hate losing, the fans hate losing. We could make a non-conference schedule where we win most of our games by 10 or 20 points, but we choose to play good teams to help us get better and to prepare us for the conference season.

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Shattered

Whitworth 76, Calvin 51 (box score)

Arms and games.

This was a really disappointing result. Not that I expected the Knights to win, but to get utterly dominated like this is very discouraging. Injuries, yes. First game after a long break, yes. Lots of travel, yes. But none of that can excuse away a 25 point shellacking.

Whitworth didn't shoot all that well -- just over 41% for the game -- but they destroyed Calvin on the glass. Most disappointing of all, Calvin allowed Whitworth to collect 22 offensive rebounds (49%) while grabbing only nine themselves (26%). That's really how Whitworth was able to turn this game into a laugher. They didn't really shoot much better than the Knights did, but they were able to shoot the ball 21 more times. That will turn into lots of points all by itself.

Bullets

• Tyler Kruis only attempted one shot. I don't think Calvin is going to win many games without his presence being established. He got into early foul trouble which took him out of the game*, so that didn't help things either.
• Zero turnovers from either Rietema or Powell is a good thing.
• The playing rotation will be even more patchwork for a while with Vallie out. It looks like Tyler Dykstra will be the primary beneficiary of his minutes. Probably a few more for Mast and Haverdink now too.
• No idea where points are going to come from. I'm probably overreacting though.

*I don't understand why coaches need to pull players after recording their third foul in the first half. Kruis only played five or six minutes in the first half because of his foul trouble, and only ended up with 16 minutes for the game. Why not just keep the normal rotation? Three things could happen: (1) leave him in and he doesn't get further into foul trouble -- roughly 26 minutes (2) leave him in and he fouls out early -- roughly15 minutes (3) sit him down so he doesn't foul out early -- 16 minutes. The way I see it, by pulling players, you're pretty much guaranteeing the foul-out penalty.

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Stats-and-More Versus Trinity

Win Probability Graph

This game was never close to ever being in doubt. Calvin's win probability hit 98% one minute into the second half, and hit 100% about two minutes after that. Even while Calvin's 30 point lead was in the process of being trimmed all the way down to 17, the number never wavered below 100%. Obviously 100% is never 100% unless the clock says zero-zero, but it in this case 100% means the team that's ahead will lose the game in less than 1 time in 10,000 identical situations (or, that's what it would say if our data set had an infinite number of games).

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