Predicting the First Round of GL Region Rankings

The first set of regional rankings are due out tomorrow, but let's see if we can crack the code a day early.

I'll start off by limiting my potential list of teams to those who have won at least 70% of their regional games. This isn't an NCAA rule or anything, but I think it will pear down our list to a manageable number. It's a shortcut, but I won't tell if you won't tell.

This leaves us with a list of ten:

Winning Percentage (in-region games only)
1. Wooster -- 1.00
2. Hope -- 0.909
3. Penn State-Behrend -- 0.889
4. Marietta -- 0.875
5. Wabash -- 0.833
6. Wittenberg -- 0.800
7. Thiel -- 0.769
8. Bethany -- 0.737
9. Capital -- 0.706
10. Calvin -- 0.700

If we keep the above list, we can compare these teams based on the other Primary criteria. We'll rank them based on their position in the region (41 teams).

Strength of Schedule
7. Hope -- 0.543
16. Thiel -- 0.512
19. Wabash -- 0.506
21. Calvin -- 0.504
22. Wooster -- 0.504
25. Bethany -- 0.497
29. Capital -- 0.484
34. Wittenberg -- 0.469
39. Marietta -- 0.442
41. Penn State-Behrend -- 0.405

I like to start rankings with a mathematical combination of the winning percentage and strength of schedule. This gives me a base line for head-to-head and results versus common opponent adjustments. Now, if we averaged the ranking of winning percentage and strength of schedule, we get the following list:

(More after the jump)

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