Calvin Plus/Minus From The Elmhurst Bluejay Classic

No real (or fake) analysis here or discussion here. Just the charts. You all know the drill. Don't take a single game's chart too seriously. The season totals are what we're really interested in.

vs. Benedictine

Player	(+)	(-)	(+/-)	MIN	(+)/min	(-)/min	(+/-)/min
Brink	63	56	7	26	2.42	2.15	0.27
DeBoer	39	33	6	17	2.29	1.94	0.35
DeYoung	11	14	-3	5	2.20	2.80	-0.60
Fabiyi	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Greene	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Haverdink	25	27	-2	12	2.08	2.25	-0.17
Kruis	8	10	-2	6	1.33	1.67	-0.33
Powell	28	33	-5	18	1.56	1.83	-0.28
Rietema	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Rodts	55	66	-11	33	1.67	2.00	-0.33
Salo	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Schnyders	44	54	-10	23	1.91	2.35	-0.43
Schuster	60	57	3	29	2.07	1.97	0.10
Snikkers	62	60	2	31	2.00	1.94	0.06
Vallie	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Team	395	410	-15	200	1.98	2.05	-0.08

vs. DePauw

Player	(+)	(-)	(+/-)	MIN	(+)/min	(-)/min	(+/-)/min
Brink	47	25	22	24	1.96	1.04	0.92
DeBoer	19	20	-1	13	1.46	1.54	-0.08
DeYoung	29	18	11	16	1.81	1.13	0.69
Fabiyi	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Greene	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Haverdink	16	23	-7	14	1.14	1.64	-0.50
Kruis	23	29	-6	17	1.35	1.71	-0.35
Powell	49	44	5	23	2.13	1.91	0.22
Rietema	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Rodts	57	41	16	27	2.11	1.52	0.59
Salo	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Schnyders	29	16	13	17	1.71	0.94	0.76
Schuster	44	25	19	18	2.44	1.39	1.06
Snikkers	62	44	18	31	2.00	1.42	0.58
Vallie	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Team	375	285	90	200	1.88	1.43	0.45

Season Totals (sorted by minutes played)

Player	(+)	(-)	(+/-)	MIN	(+)/min	(-)/min	(+/-)/min
Rodts	465	432	33	238	1.95	1.82	0.14
Snikkers	451	384	67	219	2.06	1.75	0.31
Powell	408	357	51	204	2.00	1.75	0.25
Brink	400	321	79	187	2.14	1.72	0.42
Schuster	385	330	55	186	2.07	1.77	0.30
Haverdink	265	257	8	148	1.79	1.74	0.05
Schnyders	288	278	10	145	1.99	1.92	0.07
DeBoer	218	188	30	106	2.06	1.77	0.28
DeYoung	159	155	4	79	2.01	1.96	0.05
Kruis	105	108	-3	71	1.48	1.52	-0.04
Vallie	23	24	-1	15	1.53	1.60	-0.07
Fabiyi	8	1	7	4	2.00	0.25	1.75
Greene	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Rietema	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Salo	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Team	3175	2835	340	1602	1.98	1.77	0.21

The Three-Point Defecit Does Calvin In

Benedictine 82, Calvin 79

Down the stretch, Calvin just couldn't get over that three point hump. Starting at the 11:23 mark, they trailed by exactly three points on eight occassions. Twice they were able to get within two points (no more than that), but usually, it seemed, that bad things happened when they were down three.

Here's a summary of Calvin's possessions when they were down by three or less late in the second half:

TURNOVR by Brent Schuster 10:51
GOOD! FT SHOT by Tom Snikkers 08:55
GOOD! FT SHOT by Tom Snikkers 08:55
MISSED FT SHOT by Brad Schnyders 06:28
MISSED JUMPER by Jordan Brink 01:21
MISSED 3 PTR by Bryan Powell 00:02

That's only two points on five possessions.

Here's a summary of Benedictine's possessions when they were up by three or less late in the second half:

11:06 TURNOVR by Green, Nate
10:31 GOOD! JUMPER by Tribble, Jerrell
08:40 MISSED LAYUP by Brown, AJ
08:40 REBOUND (OFF) by (TEAM)
08:39 GOOD! 3 PTR by Jokic, Dario
08:01 GOOD! FT SHOT by Green, Nate
08:01 GOOD! FT SHOT by Green, Nate
06:50 MISSED 3 PTR by Tribble, Jerrell
06:13 GOOD! JUMPER by Green, Nate
01:49 MISSED 3 PTR by Snelling, Cameron
00:57 GOOD! FT SHOT by Green, Nate
00:57 GOOD! FT SHOT by Green, Nate
00:22 GOOD! FT SHOT by Brown, AJ
00:22 GOOD! FT SHOT by Brown, AJ
00:16 GOOD! FT SHOT by Brown, AJ
00:16 GOOD! FT SHOT by Brown, AJ
00:07 GOOD! FT SHOT by Green, Nate
00:07 MISSED FT SHOT by Green, Nate

That's 16 points on ten possessions for the Benedictine Eagles. They were efficient when they had to be, and Calvin wasn't.

The Knights didn't do themselves any favors in gaining extra possessions either. Calvin allowed an average (at best) rebounding Benedictine team to out-board them. They were especially murdered on the offensive glass. Calvin managed only four offensive rebounds (out of a possible 30), only about 13% (season average was around 36%).

Game Chart

Player	%Min	%Shots	eFG%	PPWS	FTr	Ar	TO%	Rb%
Powell	0.45	0.33	0.444	0.89	0.000	0.38	0.25	0.068
Brink	0.65	0.13	1.000	2.02	0.400	0.00	0.25	0.118
Rodts	0.83	0.10	0.400	0.80	0.000	0.08	0.00	0.037
Snikkers	0.78	0.24	0.455	0.97	0.273	0.25	0.26	0.119
Schuster	0.73	0.23	0.750	1.58	0.300	0.00	0.09	0.106
Haverdink	0.30	0.11	0.750	1.50	0.000	0.00	0.00	0.000
Schnyders	0.58	0.38	0.538	1.11	0.231	0.09	0.07	0.054
Kruis	0.15	0.22	1.000	2.00	0.000	0.00	0.00	0.205
DeBoer	0.43	0.12	0.333	0.67	0.000	0.00	0.50	0.000
DeYoung	0.13	0.00	0.000	0.00	0.000	0.00	1.00	0.246

First of all, hats off to Brent Schuster for a fantastic game shooting the ball. His 18 points ties his career high (the near disaster versus Alma last year).

Jordan Brink also was a very efficient scorer. Both Schuster and Brink are opportunistic scorers. They aren't looking to make their own shot, but they'll let if fly if they're open. I would like to see Jordan look to score more.

I think my big take away from the game was that the defense still has a lot of work to do. I think I overrated them a little bit after the first four games of the year. They held Grace to 64 points, Ohio Wesleyan to 60, and Aquinas to 44. They seemed good then, but they've given up far to many points in the mean time -- nearly 82 points per game.

It's time to tighten up the screws, and that's gotta start tonight against a good DePauw team. It's a regional game, and while it won't "make" Calvin's season, it certainly has the potential to "break" it.

Elmhurst Classic Preview

	Elmhurst Classic
Who	Benedictine (NathCon)
	DePauw (SCAC)
	Elmhurst (CCIW)
Where	Elmhurst, IL
When	Wednesday
	Benedictine -- 6:30 PM
	(DePauw vs. Elmhurst) -- 9:00 PM
	Thursday
	Consolation -- 6:30 PM
	Championship -- 9:00 PM
Web	Audio
Web	Video
Live Stats	Stats
Tickets	$6, $3 students & seniors
Directions	Click

I'm actually pretty freakin' excited about this Elmhurst Tournament. It's been three and a half weeks since Calvin's last action against a Division III opponent. I love me some D3 games. This week's holiday tournament features four D3 teams: Benedictine from the Northern Athletics Conference (midwest region), DePauw from the Southern Collegiate Athletics Conference (south region), and host Elmhurst from the College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin (midwest region).

Calvin's paired up with Benedictine in the opening round. This game will not count as an in-region game. The Eagles are defined in the Midwest region (Calvin is in the Great Lakes), they're from Illinois, which is in NCAA "Administrative Region #4" (Calvin is in #3), and their campus is 205 miles from Knollcrest (in-region cutoff is 200 miles).

The Knights will face either the DePauw Tigers or the Elmhurst Blue Jays on Thursday. Either opponent would be in-region. DePauw is in Indiana which is in the same administrative region as Michigan (Region #3). Elmhurst's campus falls within 200 miles from Calvin, so they're granted regional status due to proximity.

Learning the NCAA's regional criteria is a 300 level class, so don't worry if it's not immediately intuitive.

Back to the games at hand. I would say that Calvin and DePauw enter the tournament as favorites to meet in the championship game, but that's not to say that all the games will be easy.

Kenneth Massey (masseyratings.com) is currently giving Calvin a 69% chance of beating Benedictine and DePauw a 52% chance of beating Elmhurst. He then favors Calvin over DePauw in the championship with 70% confidence. Let's hope so.

I've been tracking RPI for D3 teams this season. Using my numbers (which are much less sophisticated than Massey's), the teams rate as follows (using only results versus D3 opponents):

Benedictine -- 0.607
DePauw -- 0.598
Calvin -- 0.505
Elmhurst -- 0.443

Let's take a look at the matchups. The following chart is how the Knights currently stack up statistically with the other three teams in the tournament.

Matchup	Calvin	Benedictine	Adv.	DePauw	Adv.	Elmhurst	Adv.
Calvin eFG% vs. opp. DeFG%	0.511	0.534	Calvin	0.512	Calvin	0.525	Calvin
Calvin DeFG% vs. opp. eFG%	0.493	0.528	BU	0.537	DePauw	0.465	Calvin
Calvin TOr vs. opp. DTOr	0.21	0.23	BU	0.20	-	0.20	-
Calvin DTOr vs. opp. TOr	0.19	0.22	-	0.20	-	0.21	-
Calvin ORb% vs. opp. DRb%	0.37	0.69	Calvin	0.76	DePauw	0.72	-
Calvin DRb% vs. opp. ORb%	0.68	0.26	Calvin	0.32	-	0.34	-
Calvin FTr vs. opp. DFTr	0.31	0.40	-	0.26	DePauw	0.35	EC
Calvin DFTr vs. opp. FTr	0.33	0.42	BU	0.25	Calvin	0.43	EC
Calvin OEff vs. opp. DEff	106.2	102.6	Calvin	99.0	Calvin	103.3	Calvin
Calvin DEff vs. opp. OEff	103.4	99.4	BU	105.9	DePauw	98.8	EC

Benedictine
It seems that the Eagles shoot the ball well and get to the line with frequency, but oddly, that doesn't look to have turned into points. They're offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions) is just 99.4. the MIAA is averaging right around 100 as a conference, so Benedictine looks to be a hair below average. They turn the ball over just slightly more often than Calvin does, but I think the main deficiency they have on offense is on the glass.

The Eagles are only pulling down 26% of the available offensive rebounds. An average MIAA team grabs 32% of offensive rebounds, and so far this year, Calvin's at 37%. That 11% difference equates to about four extra possessions per game.

I'm going to give Calvin the advantage on this one. As long as they put forth a strong effort on the glass, they should keep themselves in the driver's seat.

Elmhurst/DePauw
A potential matchup with DePauw looks like it would be more of a struggle for the Knights. The stats look pretty even, with the only real advantage going to DePauw by way of defensive rebounding.

I don't think the Knights would have too much trouble with Elmhurst. The stats look fairly even in terms of number of advantages and disadvantages, but it's important to keep in mind that shooting percentage correlates much more to winning than, say, free throw rate does.

Sure-To-Be-Wrong Prediction
Calvin over Benedictine by 7
Calvin over DePauw by 3

The name of the game here is to win the regional matchup. A win over DePauw in the championship round would be ideal, but even a win over Elmhurst in the consolation would be OK in the end. Winning on day two may end up being a critical factor in a potential at-large NCAA Tournament selection.