And That Just Happened (Again)

I knew this game was going to be a battle for the Knights. We learned last year that the Grace Tigers weren't messing around anymore, and they've continued that trend into this season. But still, this was a game that Calvin should have won.

The Knights were up by 10 with 8:59 to go in the first half, but then allowed Grace to go on a 21-5 run, and ended up trailing at the break.

The story was the same in the second half. A Tom Snikkers basket with 4:59 to go gave the Knights a 59-50 advantage, but they would only score four more points -- and allow 14 to Grace.

I thought they were about to get last year's monkey off their back and then...



Train wreck city.

They only mustered 1-5 shooting and 2-4 from the line over the final stretch to complete the collapse.

Here's Krombeen's final shot from my vantage point.



You'll notice the camera doesn't pan back when Calvin takes the ball down the court. I think I blacked out or something. I thought he had left it short for sure. (Also, don't worry about that mild travel by Durham at the top of the lane before he dishes it off, I think you're allowed to slide the pivot foot something like three feet.)

Good news is that, being and out-of-region game, it really doesn't count for anything except hurt feelings and a mild bout with Tourette syndrome. You learn, you get better, you move on.

Offensive Chart:

Player	%Min	%Shots	eFG%	PPWS	FTr	Ar
Powell	0.675	0.276	0.455	0.909	0.000	0.421
Brink	0.725	0.094	0.500	1.290	0.750	0.000
Rodts	0.775	0.262	0.417	0.914	0.583	0.348
Snikkers	0.650	0.287	0.500	1.088	0.182	0.250
Schuster	0.600	0.226	0.688	1.313	0.500	0.125
Haverdink	0.500	0.136	0.250	0.500	0.000	0.111
Schnyders	0.500	0.169	0.000	0.510	1.200	0.100
DeBoer	0.175	0.291	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
DeYoung	0.400	0.042	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.125
Team	1.000	1.000	0.407	0.901	0.390	0.700

In contrast to the game at Davenport, we see mostly poor numbers here, save Schuster, Brink, and maybe Snikkers.

I'll give the game ball to Brent Schuster. He had a really nice day recording Calvin's first double-double of the year. I would have liked to seem him pull the trigger on a few of the three point opportunities he passed up, but I can't complain at all about his final numbers.

Defensive Chart:

Defense
DEff	91.3
DeFG%	0.420
DRb%	0.614
DTO%	0.228
DFTr	0.101
DPPWS	0.885

All extremely good, except the defensive rebounding. Would like to see that closer to 70%. Kudos to the defense for playing tough.

As promised in the live blog, here's the finish to the Heidelberg-Ohio Wesleyan game:



Heidelberg wins by a point.

Calvin will play OWU in the consolation game tomorrow at 1:00 PM. This is a must win, as it's a highly prized regional contest.

Tip-off Tournament Live Blog - Day 1

I'll be at the game, but I'll post some of my thoughts (and maybe a few pictures) below using Cover It Live (via Twitter @snyder_matthew). I'm not sure if I'll be able to enable comments or not, but you can go ahead and try.

I'll be at both games, so if there are any Heidelberg or Ohio Wesleyan fans out there, feel free to check it out too.

Tip-Off Tournament Preview

	Calvin Tip-Off Tournament
Who	Grace Bible (NCCAA II)
	Heidelberg (OAC)
	Ohio Wesleyan (NCAC)
Where	Van Noord Arena
When	Friday
	Heidelberg vs. OWU - 5:30 PM
	Calvin vs. Grace - 7:30 PM
	Saturday
	Consolation Game - 1:00 PM
	Championship Game - 3:30 PM
Radio	WFUR 102.9 FM
Web Audio	Stretch Internet
Web Video	Stretch Internet
Live Stats	Calvin Scoreboard
Tickets	$5.00, $3.00 at Door and Online

Game One
This will be Heidelberg's season opener, so we don't have any numbers on them yet, but let's try to piece something together anyway. The OAC coaches voted Heidelberg to finish sixth in the preseason coaches poll, but they did pick up one first place vote.

The Student Princes finished sixth (out of ten) in the Ohio Athletic Conference last season with a conference record of 9-9 (15-13 overall). But don't let the .500 record fool you, they were still a pretty good team. They upset conference champion John Carroll in the OAC Tournament semi-finals, but missed out on an NCAA bid with a loss to Wilmington in the championship game. The OAC, as a league, is much deeper than the MIAA.

Ohio Wesleyan has one game under their belt, a 66-57 home loss to Albion. The NCAC coaches predicted the Battling Bishops would finish third in the league this season, but a home loss to what looks to be a pretty mediocre Albion team doesn't bode well for them.

Game Two
We all remember what happened last year. I don't really want to talk about it.

Grace apparently doesn’t maintain a statistics page on their athletics website, nor do they post individual box scores, so I don’t have all of their stats. But it’s not all bad. Outside of a game against Davenport and a game against Cornerstone, they’ve played a bunch of cupcakes. I was able to easily find box scores for the DU and C’stone games-- they’re probably more comparable to Calvin talent-wise than Southwestern Community Bible Tech, or whoever it was that Grace played.

Grace lost these two games by a combined seven points, so they were more than competitive against two very tough teams.

I don’t usually do this, but because the competition level has been so similar, the side-by-side comparison is pretty interesting. Instead of simply comparing Calvin vs. DU to Grace vs. DU, I elected to include Grace vs. Cornerstone, picking a sample size boost over exact comparison. I think we’ll get (slightly) closer to an estimate of Grace’s true talent level this way.

	Calvin	Grace
eFG%	0.580	0.527
DeFG%	0.507	0.476
TOr	0.28	0.29
DTOr	0.13	0.18
ORb%	0.310	0.297
DRb%	0.659	0.704
FTr	0.30	0.29
DFTr	0.38	0.34
OEff	103.7	93.8
DEff	115.5	98.6

One of the more interesting factoids from this chart is that Grace has actually been slightly worse in turning the ball over. I didn't really know that was possible. Looks like Calvin would be well served to pressure the ball more than normal.

Across the board, Calvin has the better offensive numbers, and Grace has the better defensive numbers. Again, interesting.

Normal Chart:

Match-up	Calvin	Grace	Adv.
Calvin eFG% vs. Grace DeFG%	0.580	0.476	-
Calvin DeFG% vs. Grace eFG%	0.507	0.527	-
Calvin TOr vs. Grace DTOr	0.28	0.18	-
Calvin DTOr vs. Grace TOr	0.13	0.29	-
Calvin ORb% vs. Grace DRb%	0.310	0.704	-
Calvin DRb% vs. Grace ORb%	0.659	0.297	-
Calvin FTr vs. Grace DFTr	0.30	0.34	-
Calvin DFTr vs. Grace FTr	0.38	0.29	-
Calvin OEff vs. Grace DEff	103.7	98.6	-
Calvin DEff vs. Grace OEff	115.5	93.8	-

The information is the same as in the first table, but this is organized in my usual offense vs. defense fashion. It's still too early to declare advantages; maybe that comes next weekend (but maybe not).

This is going to be a very good game. Grace has hung tough with two undefeated and highly ranked NAIA teams. Those losses are nothing to hang your head over. Grace manhandled Calvin last year by playing a disciplined, fundamentally sound game, and I expect to see the same effort out of them this time. I'd be lying if I told you I wasn't nervous.

Key Match-up
Calvin's post players versus Allen Durham. In order for the Knights to be successful on Friday night, they'll need to find a way to slow down Grace's big man. In the games against Davenport and Cornerstone, he's averaged 16.5 points and 13.5 rebounds. Averaged. Coach Vande Streek has been very complimentary of Durham saying something to the effect of him being one of the best post players Calvin will see all year.

Sure To Be Wrong Prediction
So far I'm 2-2 in predicting Calvin losses, but that trend will end here. (Hopefully it's the trend of the losses, not the spot-on prognostication.)

Calvin by 5
Need to win level: Medium
Expected to win level: Medium-High